Picking 8th vs 21st

[gettlemanjack]

guys you could get with the 8th pick that were gone before 21:

2000

Brian Urlacher

2001

7× All-Pro OG Steve Hutchinson

2002

Dwight Freeney

Jeremy Shockey

2003

Jordan Gross

Terrell Suggs

Troy Polamalu

2004

Ben Roethlisberger

2005

DeMarcus Ware

2006

Haloti Ngata

Pro Bowl CB Antonio Cromartie

All Pro DE/OLB Tamba Hali

2007

Darrelle Revis

Patrick Willis

Marshawn Lynch

2008

Pro Bowl OT Ryan Clady

Pro Bowl OT Branden Albert

Pro Bowl CB Aqib Talib

Pro Bowl CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco

2009

Pro Bowl DE Brian Orakpo

WR Jeremy Maclin - 89.1 ypg this yr, already at 1000

2010

Best S in Game Earl Thomas

2011

GOAT J. J. Watt

Cowboys Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith

All Pro DE Robert Quinn

Patriots LT Nate Solder

2012

Luke Kuechly

2013

Star Lotulelei

2014

Odell Beckham, Jr.

[emhoward]

In other words, 21st pick and playoff birth > 8th pick. And I agree as well as the 32 teams in the NFL.

[Happy Panther]

One other point is do you want to pick 21st in the 2nd round or 8th in the 2nd round???   

Once you get into the second round it really doesn't matter. Just for fun I compared picks #40 to #53 and 53 has probably produced the better players at least for the last decade. We picked Silatolu at #40 for the record. Lesean McCoy was picked at #53. Still some great players at both spots. If you go back far enough #40 has a couple of probowlers.

 

For just about every pick out there you see some guy 5 spots down that everyone passed on.

 

It's about picking the right player not the number.

[FugginPoo]

Its not just position ib first round but 2-4 as well

[d-dave]

Forgive me for not reading the post after the first couple...It's thanksgiving after all!

 

When you are drafting 8, you stand a much better chance of getting the more highly regarded OTs versus 21.  Like what we saw this year.

 

The long and short of the whole deal is about picking the right players.  

[SmokinwithWilly]

The biggest advantage to having an early draft pick is the ability to trade back easier. You may be able to exploit someone's overwhelming desire to draft a player like the Skins with RG3.

[MichaelNewtonII]

For all the folks who want to tank the season to secure a high draft pick I thought I would look at the difference between 8th where we are now and 21st where we could pick if we somehow win the division. I was surprised at the results:

2007

8th - DE Jamaal Anderson (out of the league)

21st - S Reggie Nelson (still in league may have shot someone)

2008

8th - DE Derrick Harvey (out of the league)

21st - OT Sam Baker (often injured still active)

2009

8th - OT Eugene Monroe (solid OT)

21st - C Alex Mack (pro bowler)

2010

8th - LB Rolando McCain (released by the Raiders for being to crazy, retired edit: unretired and playing well)

21st - TE Jermaine Gresham (pro bowler)

2011

8th - QB Jake Locker (above average QB watching Mettenberger play)

21st - DE Phil Taylor (rookie standout declined from there)

2012

8th - QB Ryan Tannehill (good QB with further potential)

21st - DE Chandler Jones (starting DE/LB for New England with 22 career sacks)

2013

8th - WR Tavon Austin (600 yards in 2 seasons; he's no Lafell)

21st - TE Tyler Eifert (Ok rookie season now on IR)

2014

8th - CB Justin Gilbert (currently sitting the bench but future potential)

21st - S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (starting S in Green Bay)

We'll be taking an OT there. Historically top 10 pick OT seem to be a pretty safe pick

[Mr. Scot]

Once you get into the second round it really doesn't matter. Just for fun I compared picks #40 to #53 and 53 has probably produced the better players at least for the last decade. We picked Silatolu at #40 for the record. Lesean McCoy was picked at #53. Still some great players at both spots. If you go back far enough #40 has a couple of probowlers.

 

For just about every pick out there you see some guy 5 spots down that everyone passed on.

 

It's about picking the right player not the number.

 

Using Marty Hurney's picks after the first round as a basis for your argument generally isn't a good idea.

 

[Rise of The Hive]

I'd rather pick 8th!

[tailg8or]

Rather than looking at who was picked 8th and 21st, you should look at all the players that were taken between 8 and 21.  Its senseless to argue that there really isn't a difference between 8 and 21, because there is and its big. 

 

Hoping your 3-7-1 team ends up with a top 10 pick doesn't make you a 'bad' fan as some would suggest.  On the contrary, it's hope that we can fill glaring holes with studs that will wear a Panther uniform for the next decade or so (i.e. Gross).  We even have a chance at getting first round talent in the second round if we pick in the top third. 

 

If the Panthers were competitive and had a shot at making a run in the playoffs, everybody would be on board.  However, as of today, it doesn't appear that any NFC South team has a chance of making a run in the playoffs.  Instead, it's more about who will lose the fewest games vs. who will make a run.  If the scenario is that we limp into the playoffs solely because the NFC South sucks and get blown out first round by the wild card team ... yes, I would rather have the 8th pick. 

[Darth Biscuit]

Definitely an interesting discussion, nice job HP.

I would think the main difference between 8 & 21 is that at 8 you can generally get a great prospect at whatever position is your greatest need whereas at 21 you'd be better served taking BPA. You can still get top notch talent anywhere in Rnd1...

I would argue it makes more difference in the later rounds overall.

[ctrcat]

Rather than looking at who was picked 8th and 21st, you should look at all the players that were taken between 8 and 21. Its senseless to argue that there really isn't a difference between 8 and 21, because there is and its big.

Hoping your 3-7-1 team ends up with a top 10 pick doesn't make you a 'bad' fan as some would suggest. On the contrary, it's hope that we can fill glaring holes with studs that will wear a Panther uniform for the next decade or so (i.e. Gross). We even have a chance at getting first round talent in the second round if we pick in the top third.

If the Panthers were competitive and had a shot at making a run in the playoffs, everybody would be on board. However, as of today, it doesn't appear that any NFC South team has a chance of making a run in the playoffs. Instead, it's more about who will lose the fewest games vs. who will make a run. If the scenario is that we limp into the playoffs solely because the NFC South sucks and get blown out first round by the wild card team ... yes, I would rather have the 8th pick.

Why the fug couldn't we make a run? The Lions here who we already beat and a road trip to an injury ravaged Arizona team with a backup QB? For all we know we could end up back at BOA for the NFCCG.

[beastson]

Its not just position ib first round but 2-4 as well

 

This and I dont think we traded any picks previous years for 2015 draft

[tailg8or]

Why the fug couldn't we make a run? The Lions here who we already beat and a road trip to an injury ravaged Arizona team with a backup QB? For all we know we could end up back at BOA for the NFCCG.

 

IMHO ... Shula, Rivera and our OL is why.  Don't see it happening but if we get hot and make a big push, then GREAT.  I am all in and will travel to playoff games if necessary.  Still trying to figure out who will be playing RT next week on an already porous OL.