Breaking down that 4th & 1 play..

[Gucci Mane]

Your theory as to the likely sequence of progressions is based on what??? The fact that you think Cam needs to force the ball deep to Benjamin on 4th and 2??? Go back and watch the play. Watch Newton's head. He was looking at Avant first the entire way until he decides to ignore the fact that Avant was wide open.

Avant has to be the primary receiver on this play because his route is the quickest developing one. Cam is looking right at him. Avant is looking for the ball. That was the play. It is hard to imagine how Avant could have been any more wide open in that situation.

Nope.. He is looking at the safety right after the snap to see what he does, then he looks left to see if he has a favorable matchup on KB for the slant (he didn't). At the time he goes back towards the center of the field, avant is pancaking the LB and from cams angle is probably invisible, so then he sees the safety sitting on top of Olsen, and then finally the matchup on cotchery.

[TonyN]

Nope.. He is looking at the safety right after the snap to see what he does, then he looks left to see if he has a favorable matchup on KB for the slant (he didn't). At the time he goes back towards the center of the field, avant is pancaking the LB and from cams angle is probably invisible, so then he sees the safety sitting on top of Olsen, and then finally the matchup on cotchery.

 

In fairness, there is no way to say for sure...but watch the second layer of coaches film...the shots from the Eagle end zone and watch Cam's head. He looks at Avant and his head follows Avant as Avant drags across the middle. Remember, the play was 4th and 1 1/2, maybe 1 3/4...it is not a situation where you want to go deep with the ball. You just want to move the chains. Especially the ultra conservative Shula.

 

As far as Benjamin is concerned, he never even looks back for the football until he reaches the 15 yard line as he runs a deep seam route. At that point Newton is not even looking in his direction.

 

I actually like the play...Avant comes in motion and basically feigns a chip in order to free himself quickly underneath. 

 

[teeray]

Your theory as to the likely sequence of progressions is based on what??? The fact that you think Cam needs to force the ball deep to Benjamin on 4th and 2??? Go back and watch the play. Watch Newton's head. He was looking at Avant first the entire way until he decides to ignore the fact that Avant was wide open. 

 

Avant has to be the primary receiver on this play because his route is the quickest developing one. Cam is looking right at him. Avant is looking for the ball. That was the play. It is hard to imagine how Avant could have been any more wide open in that situation.

 

Based partly on the fact that he was chip blocking, unless you are running some sort of screen your primary isn't going to stay in and chip.

 

But mainly because it makes sense and flows within how you would progress and the timing of the play. 

 

Benji on the slant left (or maybe seam route), Olsen middle, Cotchery right, Avant underneath to replace if Olsen and Cotchery clear the defense, Stewart is the checkdown (or could literally just be a decoy to occupy a defender to try and create more space for the receivers).

 

Avant chips for a couple reasons.  One to slow pass rush, two to try and get lost a little bit, and three to create timing on the play, because he is 4th progression.

 

It makes the most sense, and I doubt Cam made it to Avant when he saw LB vs WR one on one up the sideline.

 

Also, if Avant was supposed to get the ball in the middle of the field he wouldn't be one yard behind the LOS where ball would undoubtedly get batted.  He is crossing to right flat and won't have a chance to receive the pass until he is out from behind the muck.  He is clearly replacing Cotchery and Olsen on the right side

[TonyN]

Based partly on the fact that he was chip blocking, unless you are running some sort of screen your primary isn't going to stay in and chip.

 

But mainly because it makes sense and flows within how you would progress and the timing of the play. 

 

Benji on the slant left, Olsen middle, Cotchery right, Avant underneath to replace if Olsen and Cotchery clear the defense, Stewart is the checkdown (or could literally just be a decoy to occupy a defender to try and create more space for the receivers).

 

Avant chips for a couple reasons.  One to slow pass rush, two to try and get lost a little bit, and three to create timing on the play, because he is 4th progression.

 

It makes the most sense, and I doubt Cam made it to Avant when he saw LB vs WR one on one up the sideline.

 

Also, if Avant was supposed to get the ball in the middle of the field he wouldn't be one yard behind the LOS where ball would undoubtedly get batted.  He is going to right flat and won't have a chance to receive the pass until he is out from behind the muck.  He is clearly replacing Cotchery and Olsen on the right side

 

Benjamin does not run a slant. He runs a square in and does not look for the football until he reaches the 15 yard line. By this time, Newton is fixed on Avant and is in the process of deciding to throw the football to a blanketed Cotchery...even though there is great protection and absolutely ZERO PRESSURE.

 

The timing of the routes is the key. Avant's route is the quickest developing. He is the first receiver to actually look back for the football. Newton is looking right at him. You can tell that Avant was not going to stay in and block, he was going to get into the pattern, It was designed.

 

Olsen runs a seam route and does not look for the football until he reaches the 10 yard line. By this time Newton is already well into his delivery.

 

The funniest thing about the entire play, though, is the fact that Cotchery is the most covered receiver. He is the man least open. And yet, that's where the ball went. And there was all the time in the world.

 

[Gucci Mane]

In fairness, there is no way to say for sure...but watch the second layer of coaches film...the shots from the Eagle end zone and watch Cam's head. He looks at Avant and his head follows Avant as Avant drags across the middle. Remember, the play was 4th and 1 1/2, maybe 1 3/4...it is not a situation where you want to go deep with the ball. You just want to move the chains. Especially the ultra conservative Shula.

As far as Benjamin is concerned, he never even looks back for the football until he reaches the 15 yard line as he runs a deep seam route. At that point Newton is not even looking in his direction.

I actually like the play...Avant comes in motion and basically feigns a chip in order to free himself quickly underneath.

I've watched it plenty of times, I don't think he was looking at avant, i know it looks like his heads pointed that way but his eyes aren't.

[teeray]

Benjamin does not run a slant. He runs a square in and does not look for the football until he reaches the 15 yard line. By this time, Newton is fixed on Avant and is in the process of deciding to throw the football to a blanked Cotchery...even though there is great protection and absolutely ZERO PRESSURE.

The timing of the routes is the key. Avant's route is the quickest developing. He is the first receiver to actually look back for the football. Newton is looking right at him. You can tell that Avant was not going to stay in and block, he was going to get into the pattern, It was designed.

Olsen runs a seam route and does not look for the football until he reaches the 10 yard line. By this time Newton is already well into his delivery.

The funniest thing about the entire play, though, is the fact that Cotchery is the most covered receiver. He is the man least open. And yet, that's where the ball went. And there was all the time in the world.

Avant is not staying in to block, he is chipping and then replacing the two receivers on the right with a crossing route underneath.

The timing is key, that is why he is chipping to create better timing. He slows down pass rush and gives Olsen and Cotchery time to clear their space and maybe he gets lost in the muck

It doesn't matter when Olsen looked back. Cam reads safety. Moves on.

You have WR vs LB with Cotch. If you like that matchup you throw the ball.

You can't even throw to Avant until he clears the muck. He is only about a yard behind LOS. It was not the quickest developing route.

There is no way Avant was primary.

[TonyN]

Avant is not staying in to block, he is chipping and then replacing the two receivers on the right with a crossing route underneath.

The timing is key, that is why he is chipping to create better timing. He slows down pass rush and gives Olsen and Cotchery time to clear their space and maybe he gets lost in the muck

It doesn't matter when Olsen looked back. Cam reads safety. Moves on.

You have WR vs LB with Cotch. If you like that matchup you throw the ball.

You can't even throw to Avant until he clears the muck. He is only about a yard behind LOS. It was not the quickest developing route.

There is no way Avant was primary.

 

You are going to see what you want to see, regardless.

 

Avant is in the pattern and was always going to be in the pattern.

 

That neither Olsen nor Benjamin nor Cotchery start looking for the football until well down field is crucial, because it tells you their routes are designed to take a long time to develop.

 

Avant is wide open 4 yards behind the closest Eagle defensive lineman the instant he looks back for the football. He "cleared the muck" almost instantly. His pattern is the first one with a chance to be completed. Even Stewart is not looking for the football before Avant. Cam Newton is looking right at Avant. As a matter of fact, you can clearly see Newton's head follow Avant as Avant drags across the middle.

 

It was 4th and 2. Not 4th and 20.

 

But once again, even had Avant tripped or been somehow taken out of the play, the long throw to a well covered Cotchery is the worst possible decision that could have been made. There was no pressure. None. Cam could have actually looked back towards Benjamin, he could have looked towards Olsen, he could have looked to Stew...he could have drifted out left or right and waited for something to develop. The desperate heave to Cotchery was just a bad, bad decision. Given the down and distance it was almost unbelievable.  

[Peppers90 NC]

was cotchery's initial route just an out and up or just and out and he went up to keep the play going? the matchup on Barwin should have been an easy one to win right off the bat. i am looking at the 2nd and 4th frame of OP post to see where options were when Cam completed the quick drop back. since it was from the gun, it wasnt a typical 3 set drop where timing is more key. Avant was not the first read, my guess it should have been Cotch on a simple out route. Avant obviously chipped, ran a short slant and would have either sat in the zone or keep going on the cross. he sensed defenders right on his back and continued to run across the field. my conclusion is that Cam did not do a good job at anticipation or maybe not confident enough to had made the quick out pass, which Barwin did a decent job of covering JC.

[TheRed]

You are going to see what you want to see, regardless.

Oh the irony, lol.

[TonyN]

was cotchery's initial route just an out and up or just and out and he went up to keep the play going? the matchup on Barwin should have been an easy one to win right off the bat. i am looking at the 2nd and 4th frame of OP post to see where options were when Cam completed the quick drop back. since it was from the gun, it wasnt a typical 3 set drop where timing is more key. Avant was not the first read, my guess it should have been Cotch on a simple out route. Avant obviously chipped, ran a short slant and would have either sat in the zone or keep going on the cross. he sensed defenders right on his back and continued to run across the field. my conclusion is that Cam did not do a good job at anticipation or maybe not confident enough to had made the quick out pass, which Barwin did a decent job of covering JC.

 

The problem with the idea of a quick out to Cotchery being the initial read is that Newton never looks in Cotchery's direction until well after Cotchery has turned up field.

[Peppers90 NC]

the fact of the matter was they played pretty decent, disciplined defense where we may have anticipated a blitz or man and they played cover 3. i think with single high safety, this was a good call. you had Olsen to clear out that safety, a dump off option with Stewart, KB to play the space vacated by the single high safety, Cotchery running a quick out, and Avant running a quick slant/hook/drag after chipping the block. i think the ball should have gone to Cotchery within about two seconds after the snap, but it didnt and instead of just sitting in the flat, he chose to go upfield against a converted DE to OLB where he should have been able to outrun him but he clearly has no speed.

[Peppers90 NC]

The problem with the idea of a quick out to Cotchery being the initial read is that Newton never looks in Cotchery's direction until well after Cotchery has turned up field.

that would be a problem if that's the case. im just trying to make sense of the whole thing. best thing i can come up with is that we are in a major funk. the quick out on 4th and short 2 with a wideout against a converted DE to OLB should be a good matchup. he was clearly playing the flats and it would have had to happen very quickly to be successful.

[teeray]

that would be a problem if that's the case. im just trying to make sense of the whole thing. best thing i can come up with is that we are in a major funk. the quick out on 4th and short 2 with a wideout against a converted DE to OLB should be a good matchup. he was clearly playing the flats and it would have had to happen very quickly to be successful.

One on one with a converted DE is a good matchup for a wheel route or out and up for a WR. I think we were trying to take a shot on 4th and 2 where defense would be likely playing single high or zero coverage to try and take run and short routes away.

I think the play was designed to take a shot downfield. If it works out than nobody gives a poo and we aren't looking at still frames.

Olsen and Cotchery clear out the defense and Avant replaces underneath. Common play in football.

You want to get mad at Cam for something get mad at him for not throwing a good ball and giving Cotchery a chance. Worst case scenario it gets picked and it is essentially same as a pooch punt. Wasn't a well thrown ball.

I think we got the match up we wanted. We just didn't execute

[TonyN]

that would be a problem if that's the case. im just trying to make sense of the whole thing. best thing i can come up with is that we are in a major funk. the quick out on 4th and short 2 with a wideout against a converted DE to OLB should be a good matchup. he was clearly playing the flats and it would have had to happen very quickly to be successful.

 

 

Cotchery does run an quick out, but Cam is not even looking remotely in his direction. There was some separation, but Newton never looked there. Had he looked in Cotchery's direction immediately, it is a play that could have worked. But once again, Newton's head proves that a quick out to Cotch was not the designed play...unless Cam just looked in the wrong direction to start with. Hard to believe.