Breaking down that 4th & 1 play..

[TonyN]

Remember the slant to Benjamin on 4th down earlier this year? Basically the same play.

 

There is about a 99 chance in 100 that Avant was the primary receiver on this play. Newton is looking right at him. He is obviously the first read. He is wide open. The ball should have been thrown.

 

You can go deep on 2nd and 1. You can maybe go deep on 3rd and 1 if you are in 4 down territory. 

 

The only way you can go deep on 4th and 1 is if there is no time left. The deep routes on this play are simply clearing out the middle of the field for the quick slant to Avant. If that isn't there, you go to Stew and trust he can break one tackle. Most good RB's break the initial tackle the vast majority of the time.

 

Why don't we just blame the offensive line for this one ???

[panthers55]

What I see is 2 underneath routes that were open and if Cam had rolled out the linebacker would have had to pressure Cam and he throws it to a wide open running back or the linebacker stays witht e running back who blocks him and Cam makes it with no problem.. Instead he throws is poorly to a double covered receiver. And somehow that was Shula's fault? You,guys are hopeless.

[bigdog10]

Anybody who can't see Cam is at fault on this play is delusional.

Avant is clearly wide open. Newton didn't make the correct read.

Shula sucks plain and simple, but Cam does him little favors with reads like this. The oline does both little favors by getting walked back on every play. Our offense is a dumpster fire plain and simple. The likes that have not been seen around here since David Carr and jimmy clausen were at the helm.

[LUUUUUKE]

We all know this play was going to define the rest of the game. Watching live i was scratching my head at the formation (why distance yourself from the marker?) but i assumed we were going to run power with Cam. Anyways, lets take a look at why this play might not have succeeded...

Heres the pre snap look:

We see a single high look, and bringing Avant in motion revealed what looked like man coverage at least on that side. The OLB outside of cotchery is playing wide and keeping outside leverage.

Post snap you can see KB manned up, the safety playing as a centerfielder, and on the right side theres some sort of trap coverage, and since Olsen and Cotch released the way they did, it ended up pretty much being a Cover 1 look, with cotchery manned up with an OLB.

Cams first read(see below) after he freezes the safety looks to be KB running a skinny post/slant, but he sees the LB buzzing, so thats a no go.

.....

As cam completes his drop back his eyes shift towards the middle of the field, you can see the buzzing linebackers plant and start heading towards the underneath routes. Also notice that the underneath route is still basically at the line of scrimmage and while hindsight might say to still throw that ball, it wasnt a sure thing that there would have been enough room to get the first down(if the ball didnt get batted at the line first).

Here you can basically see that Cam is looking at what the safety is doing in relation to Olsen running up the seam, and later realizes he has a one on one matchup that he likes.

After looking at the play a couple of times, its really hard to say what coulda/shoulda happened. I didnt like the throw obviously, but its a matchup you want. The playcall is what bugged me. Shula took 4th and 1 and made it 4th and 6 just because.

What do you guys think?

I think he should have ran it to the left and used Stewart as a blocker. 20 yd pick up minimum

[jfo89]

Look at frame 3. It's sad that Avant has to do his job plus Bell's. I dream of a day where our linemen don't need chip blocks to do their job.

[nosuchthingasapanther]

Stew was open but he was still ~6-7 yards away from the marker, and the linebacker planted immediately towards stew when he leaked..

 

Olsen was not open for a touchdown, not even close.

 

Avant was the best option but even then he still had to gain ~2 yards when the LB on the short side was planting and headed for him as well. Cam probaby passed over him when he noticed that linebacker was headed strait towards him.

 

i'm not sure what your definition of open is. a linebacker is always going to be going in the direction of a possible target of the qb.

the odds of stewart getting tackled one on one in the open field is slim to none.

avant has the first down. period.

because this is a still shot, what you don't see as the play progresses is olsen being left one on one with a step on his man going into the end zone with no one to his left...newton didn't even have to throw it directly to him to score. olsen had plenty of room to adjust to the ball.

tweet from zod immediately after the play...

Jeremy Igo ‏@CarolinaHuddle · 1m1 minute ago

Greg Olsen open in the end zone, wasn't happy

[TonyN]

I would have preferred shotgun, Cam sneak. He always gets it cause of his size. Why that wasn't the play call is beyond me

 

Cam has already failed on one 4th down sneak this year.

 

And besides, look at the down and distance markers at the top and bottom of the screen. This is not 4th and inches. It's more like 4th and 2. It isn't sneak territory.

 

It was a good call by Shula.  The primary receiver, Avant, was wide open. There was a wide open Stewart in the flat. There was room for the QB to run, both to the left and to the right.

 

Instead, Newton decided to launch a pass of 20 + yards downfield to a well covered receiver.

 

Cam is 4 of 24 or 16.7% on passes of 20+ yards this season...

Cam was 14 of 62 or 22.6% on passes of 20+ yards last season...

 

Any of his minimum of 3 other options on this play were obviously more likely to pick up the first down .

And there was great protection and no pressure on the play. 

[pstall]

I chalk this pass up to being super competitive more so than a bad read. It was a home run swing instead of just getting on base.

An older Cam will throw to Avant or Olsen in the future.

[restNChrist]

What I see is 2 underneath routes that were open and if Cam had rolled out the linebacker would have had to pressure Cam and he throws it to a wide open running back or the linebacker stays witht e running back who blocks him and Cam makes it with no problem.. Instead he throws is poorly to a double covered receiver. And somehow that was Shula's fault? You,guys are hopeless.

i was gonna post this if no one else did.... all Cam has to do is roll out.  He either draws the line backer and Stew is open before Cam crosses the LOS or Cam runs for the 1st.  Cam, regardless of what he says, was in pain and was not going to run.  Still should have hit Avant.

[Plewis]

I was told Olsen was wide open on this play. He had a corner on him along with a safety in the middle

 

Avant was underneath but having to help this weak ass oline delayed his route wit that chip block

 

 

Im my personal opinion for the rest of the season, I would literally do my best Clausen impression if I was Cam. Just dump the poo off, wateva happens whether they get the 1st down or not is on them. Even if it means 3 and outs, so what. fug this coaching staff, slow receivers, weak oline needing help, and 90s offensive system

 

The problem is Cam would overthrow him. He has no dink and dunk game atm. The only thing Cam can do consistently is throw the deep ball with zip. He has no touch which really limits our offense.

 

Don't get me wrong, Cam doesn't deserve all the blame, he just simply doesn't have a full game.

[JawnyBlaze]

I was told Olsen was wide open on this play. He had a corner on him along with a safety in the middle

 

Avant was underneath but having to help this weak ass oline delayed his route wit that chip block

 

 

Im my personal opinion for the rest of the season, I would literally do my best Clausen impression if I was Cam. Just dump the poo off, wateva happens whether they get the 1st down or not is on them. Even if it means 3 and outs, so what. fug this coaching staff, slow receivers, weak oline needing help, and 90s offensive system

 

You were told wrong.  Olsen was double covered with defenders at arm's length between him and Cam.  If you have rewind or any way to watch it again, do so.  I commented on this claim in the gameday thread, Olsen wasn't remotely open.

 

[beastson]

The problem is Cam would overthrow him. He has no dink and dunk game atm. The only thing Cam can do consistently is throw the deep ball with zip. He has no touch which really limits our offense.

 

Don't get me wrong, Cam doesn't deserve all the blame, he just simply doesn't have a full game.

 

He showed he can do that in the 2nd half

[JawnyBlaze]

[JawnyBlaze]