Really? Fire rivera?

[Ruff]

Technically because we tied we're right above the mediocre threshold. If we lost...we'd be mediocre. Right now....we're barely decent. Which is much better then mediocre.

Don't lie....we all celebrated when that fugger missed.

Absolutely I cheered when he missed. But is that really what we've come to? Hoping for just the chance to tie one of the good teams?

[KendrickPanther]

Why are you guys so damn mad over a tie game? What would you be saying if rivera called for a qb sneak up the middle like the huddle wanted, and we didn't convert? I'm sure you guys would not be saying "oh we lost but at least we tried to convert" no you'd be saying "Fire Rivera!" Still. You just can't win on the huddle ron... 3-2-1 looks better than 3-3 to me, good job rivera, I'd rather have tied than lose unlike these guys.

 

What would we have said if Nugent nailed the field goal?

 

I'm not saying fire coach Rivera. But that decision was really bad. He should have looked at his defense and looked at his offense and realized his best chance of not losing was to convert the 4th down. "Trusting your defense" only works when your defense is trustworthy.

 

How about that challenged spot in the 1st quarter. He was never going to win that, that is head coaching 101. It cost us a time out and our challenge for the game.

 

How about that 4th and 2 we converted? He called a timeout, we converted but that timeout would have been very valuable to us elsewhere.

 

Ron fumbled his way through this game. It was a bad look for him.

[Davidson Deac II]

Yup and no one is mentioning the fact that they didn't have AJ Green...just LOL at what would have happened if Green was in.

 

We had people out as well.  Give them Green, give us our secondary starters. Or Hardy. 

[TheMaulClaw]

Absolutely I cheered when he missed. But is that really what we've come to? Hoping for just the chance to tie one of the good teams?

 

No it's not.  We've beaten some decent teams this year.  Detroit is a good team. The Bears are NOT a bad football team.  Obviously we all wanted to win the Cincy game and should have won that game if not for the Gano miss and the Pacman return. 

 

I'm not gonna sit here and act like we're a bad team and we're lucky to escape with a tie. However a tie is WAY better then a loss and still gives us some breathing room in the division.  Before the New England game people were saying that Cincy was the best team in the league.  To go up into their house, not play our best football, and come out with a tie against a good team lets me know that we have a chance this season to be good.  Especially when our players know they could have won the football game.

 

I checked the Cincy boards, right now the fan bases are mirror images of each other.  Happy about the offense, pissed about the defense.

[CPantherKing]

How. Do you figure? Cam has run it on 4th and 1 before and not gotten it.

 

A large part of my career revolves around predictive analytics and applied behavior analysis.

 

This is essentially the same responsibility of a head football coach with a platform of athletics.

 

Let me preface the following by saying if I were to ever go into a situation impacting the business I work for without knowing the key patterns, goals, and outcomes in critical situations, then I would expect to be terminated in the very near future.

 

A head coach has it much easier than I do. I deal with many more variables on a day to day basis. A head coach has a platform with definite controls to operate on (100 yard field, 60 minute games, 15 minute OT, shared possessions, 22 individuals at any give moment to pattern.) I am not going to get too technical. So, it is very simple for a head coach to understand a given situation. If they cannot master this, then hire an assistant who can.

 

Rivera should have known the following (he gets paid a whole lot more than I do and needs to earn it), and anyone speaking to this should read the following before giving their opinion.

 

Cam and the Panthers offense:

 

(88.9%) Cam is 8/9 in his career on 4th and 2 or less. The 1 miss try being a fumble.

 

(63.6%) Cam is 7/11 passing the ball on 4th and 2 or less.

 

(92.9%) Panthers as a team since 2011 are 13/14 running the ball for a first down on 4th and 2 or less. (#1 in the NFL)

 

 

The Panthers Defense under Rivera/McDermott:

(preventing scores on drives in the last 5 minutes of the game and OT)

 

(63.6%) 14/22 since 2011.

 

(75.0%) 9/12 since 2013.

 

(71.4%) 5/7 in 2014.

 

* The defense has been poor with a 59.4% success rate of preventing scores in the 2014 season. 

-----

 

The NFL over the past 5 seasons:

 

- converts 65.7% of 4th and 2 or less with the run.

 

- 76.8% defensive success rate in preventing a score in the final 5 minutes of a game.

 

- 63.6% defensive success rate in preventing a score in OT.

 

 

So, this tells me Rivera does not understand the strengths and weaknesses of his team. If Rivera were to have a typical QB/average short yardage offense, then he should choose to go for it on 4th down if his offense is performing better than his defense on the day. If the defense is performing better, then you put it in the hands of your defense.

 

However, when you have Cam Newton as your QB, your best probability of success is running the ball for a first down. If they run the ball, they have approximately a 10% chance of losing the game.

 

Based on the past 5 seasons, if a team places their defense on the field to stop a scoring drive in OT, that team has a 36.4% chance of allowing a score and losing the game.

 

If a defense allows a FG attempt of 36+ yards in OT (the Bengals FG attempt), that team has a 72% chance of losing.

 

Ron Rivera made the wrong call. No question. He started with a 90% chance of winning the game at 4th and 2. Took a FG attempt with a 60% chance of a tie. Played defense with a 63.6% chance of a tie game. Ended with defending a FG attempt with a 28% chance of a tie game. He lead the team toward defeat. He had a 90% chance of winning the game. He gave it up. He traded less risk and more reward for more risk and less reward.

 

Anyone making play calls on the pro level needs to have this mastered, or they should be replaced with someone who does in my opinion. If they can't master this, then they need an assistant in their pocket who does.

 

There was no Riverboat Ron, and there was no Analytics Ron. There was a Blind Gut Feeling Ron who cost the Panthers the win. His one job is to put the players in the best situation to win the game. He failed today. 

[TheWiz]

Here's what it's about...

Not making the right decision when it counts. You have to put the players in the best position to win the game... When a coaching decision is the reason that you lose a game... You have to look at it. Ron often looks lost over there just hoping someone else on the team will bail them out.

With a coach whose supposed to be defensive minded... The defense gave no relief... The clock, time-outs, and personnel have been poorly used.

It's not just about this tie game.... There were a few opportunity to put this game away... And the coaching staff failed this team.

[AU-panther]

A large part of my career revolves around predictive analytics and applied behavior analysis.

This is essentially the same responsibility of a head football coach with a platform of athletics.

Let me preface the following by saying if I were to ever go into a situation impacting the business I work for without knowing the key patterns, goals, and outcomes in critical situations, then I would expect to be terminated in the very near future.

A head coach has it much easier than I do. I deal with many more variables on a day to day basis. A head coach has a platform with definite controls to operate on (100 yard field, 60 minute games, 15 minute OT, shared possessions, 22 individuals at any give moment to pattern.) I am not going to get too technical. So, it is very simple for a head coach to understand a given situation. If they cannot master this, then hire an assistant who can.

Rivera should have known the following (he gets paid a whole lot more than I do and needs to earn it), and anyone speaking to this should read the following before giving their opinion.

Cam and the Panthers offense:

(88.9%) Cam is 8/9 in his career on 4th and 2 or less. The 1 miss try being a fumble.

(63.6%) Cam is 7/11 passing the ball on 4th and 2 or less.

(92.9%) Panthers as a team since 2011 are 13/14 running the ball for a first down on 4th and 2 or less. (#1 in the NFL)

The Panthers Defense under Rivera/McDermott:

(preventing scores on drives in the last 5 minutes of the game and OT)

(63.6%) 14/22 since 2011.

(75.0%) 9/12 since 2013.

(71.4%) 5/7 in 2014.

* The defense has been poor with a 59.4% success rate of preventing scores in the 2014 season.

-----

The NFL over the past 5 seasons:

- converts 65.7% of 4th and 2 or less with the run.

- 76.8% defensive success rate in preventing a score in the final 5 minutes of a game.

- 63.6% defensive success rate in preventing a score in OT.

So, this tells me Rivera does not understand the strengths and weaknesses of his team. If Rivera were to have a typical QB/average short yardage offense, then he should choose to go for it on 4th down if his offense is performing better than his defense on the day. If the defense is performing better, then you put it in the hands of your defense.

However, when you have Cam Newton as your QB, your best probability of success is running the ball for a first down. If they run the ball, they have approximately a 10% chance of losing the game.

Based on the past 5 seasons, if a team places their defense on the field to stop a scoring drive in OT, that team has a 36.4% chance of allowing a score and losing the game.

If a defense allows a FG attempt of 36+ yards in OT (the Bengals FG attempt), that team has a 72% chance of losing.

Ron Rivera made the wrong call. No question. He started with a 90% chance of winning the game at 4th and 2. Took a FG attempt with a 60% chance of a tie. Played defense with a 63.6% chance of a tie game. Ended with defending a FG attempt with a 28% chance of a tie game. He lead the team toward defeat. He had a 90% chance of winning the game. He gave it up. He traded less risk and more reward for more risk and less reward.

Anyone making play calls on the pro level needs to have this mastered, or they should be replaced with someone who does in my opinion. If they can't master this, then they need an assistant in their pocket who does.

There was no Riverboat Ron, and there was no Analytics Ron. There was a Blind Gut Feeling Ron who cost the Panthers the win. His one job is to put the players in the best situation to win the game. He failed today.

Most Nfl coaches are guilty of ignoring analytical facts. They tend to play not to lose instead of playing to win. It is easier to explain a loss when you lose "by the book".

[usmcpanthers]

I want Riverboat back

[TheRumGone]

A large part of my career revolves around predictive analytics and applied behavior analysis.

 

This is essentially the same responsibility of a head football coach with a platform of athletics.

 

Let me preface the following by saying if I were to ever go into a situation impacting the business I work for without knowing the key patterns, goals, and outcomes in critical situations, then I would expect to be terminated in the very near future.

 

A head coach has it much easier than I do. I deal with many more variables on a day to day basis. A head coach has a platform with definite controls to operate on (100 yard field, 60 minute games, 15 minute OT, shared possessions, 22 individuals at any give moment to pattern.) I am not going to get too technical. So, it is very simple for a head coach to understand a given situation. If they cannot master this, then hire an assistant who can.

 

Rivera should have known the following (he gets paid a whole lot more than I do and needs to earn it), and anyone speaking to this should read the following before giving their opinion.

 

Cam and the Panthers offense:

 

(88.9%) Cam is 8/9 in his career on 4th and 2 or less. The 1 miss try being a fumble.

 

(63.6%) Cam is 7/11 passing the ball on 4th and 2 or less.

 

(92.9%) Panthers as a team since 2011 are 13/14 running the ball for a first down on 4th and 2 or less. (#1 in the NFL)

 

 

The Panthers Defense under Rivera/McDermott:

(preventing scores on drives in the last 5 minutes of the game and OT)

 

(63.6%) 14/22 since 2011.

 

(75.0%) 9/12 since 2013.

 

(71.4%) 5/7 in 2014.

 

* The defense has been poor with a 59.4% success rate of preventing scores in the 2014 season. 

-----

 

The NFL over the past 5 seasons:

 

- converts 65.7% of 4th and 2 or less with the run.

 

- 76.8% defensive success rate in preventing a score in the final 5 minutes of a game.

 

- 63.6% defensive success rate in preventing a score in OT.

 

 

So, this tells me Rivera does not understand the strengths and weaknesses of his team. If Rivera were to have a typical QB/average short yardage offense, then he should choose to go for it on 4th down if his offense is performing better than his defense on the day. If the defense is performing better, then you put it in the hands of your defense.

 

However, when you have Cam Newton as your QB, your best probability of success is running the ball for a first down. If they run the ball, they have approximately a 10% chance of losing the game.

 

Based on the past 5 seasons, if a team places their defense on the field to stop a scoring drive in OT, that team has a 36.4% chance of allowing a score and losing the game.

 

If a defense allows a FG attempt of 36+ yards in OT (the Bengals FG attempt), that team has a 72% chance of losing.

 

Ron Rivera made the wrong call. No question. He started with a 90% chance of winning the game at 4th and 2. Took a FG attempt with a 60% chance of a tie. Played defense with a 63.6% chance of a tie game. Ended with defending a FG attempt with a 28% chance of a tie game. He lead the team toward defeat. He had a 90% chance of winning the game. He gave it up. He traded less risk and more reward for more risk and less reward.

 

Anyone making play calls on the pro level needs to have this mastered, or they should be replaced with someone who does in my opinion. If they can't master this, then they need an assistant in their pocket who does.

 

There was no Riverboat Ron, and there was no Analytics Ron. There was a Blind Gut Feeling Ron who cost the Panthers the win. His one job is to put the players in the best situation to win the game. He failed today. 

 

qfmft

 

this is it right here folks