Carolina AT Cincinnati Vegas Odds

[Ken]

Considering we got blown out by the Steelers and Ravens, who are weaker than the Bengals, that seems about right. It might go down later in the week though.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

Moneyline is around +250

[PandaPancake]

Any time the line moves like that it makes me think someone is setting up a huge bet the other way.. yes I do think there are people who can move the line. Someone cleaned up on the patriots

 

The line is only set to try to get people to bet on both sides. Much like a stockbroker buying a stock to make the price jump.

[panthers_fan_in_tx]

too bad it's not a primetime game

[teeray]

And now the prerequisite explanation for how Vegas handicaps games...

Vegas is not prediciting that Cincinnati will beat the Panthers by 7 points. The only thing Vegas cares about is making money. Vegas ultimately wants to have an equal number of bets for both teams, and that is how they derive the spreads. The point spread may change a number of times up until the game starts, based on how many bets are going for one team or the other.

Take this past weekend for example. On Friday the Bengals/Pats line was Even, meaning there was no spread either way and you basically could pick whichever team you thought would win, aka a "pick'em".

A lot of bettors put their money on the Bengals, which in turn moved the spread towards the Bengals favor all the way to -3 by the time the game started. So if you were like me and bet on the game at the last minute, you had to take the Bengals as 3 point favorites, which means the Bengals had to win by more than 3 points for me to win. Dumb bet by me.

I am a little fuzzy but that is not exactly how it works.

It is a prediction based on advanced analytics that take into account every player, weather, stadium, etc.

It is meant to be accurate, but you are correct that they want it to be even and don't want to be leveraged to much on one side of the other and so when betting starts spread will adjust accordingly.

[PantherFanOne]

too bad it's not a primetime game

 

Not to sure about that,our last primetime game didn't turn out to good.

[pstall]

hmm might jump on carolina there

Exactly what Vegas wants.

[IrishShenanigans69]

Is anyone going to this game? If so, what sections are other Panthers fans sitting in?  My wife and I are going and would prefer to sit with other Panthers than with Bungles haha

[toldozer]

The line is only set to try to get people to bet on both sides. Much like a stockbroker buying a stock to make the price jump.

Right however an even line could cause a big player to make a sizable bet to push the line a half point. People then start betting the "favorite" then it pushes higher and higher with all the "dumb" money. Then the line is where the big player wants it and an enormous bet is made. The line definitely got pushed all the way to -3 by dumb money

[MadHatter]

I am a little fuzzy but that is not exactly how it works.

It is a prediction based on advanced analytics that take into account every player, weather, stadium, etc.

It is meant to be accurate, but you are correct that they want it to be even and don't want to be leveraged to much on one side of the other and so when betting starts spread will adjust accordingly.

 

It is absolutely NOT a prediction by Vegas as to who will win.  The initial line is created as a prediction on how they believe the avg bettor will bet.  Most people perceive the Bengals as the stronger team and Vegas expects higher bets on them.  Therefore, they set the line to get money moving our way.  As the bets come in during the week, the line moves.

 

Again....Vegas wants EQUAL bets on the two teams.  If they get this, they automatically win by earning the juice.

 

pretty simple

[PandaPancake]

I suddenly feel like I pointed out something blatantly obvious.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

People always point out that Vegas sets the line to induce betting on both sides, not to represent the likely outcome/team strengths/ect, however these two things usually coincide. I'd say 90% of the time the line is a fair representation when all measurable factors are taken into account, and only when public opinion greatly overrates or underrates one side do they shift the line accordingly.

[igor]

Parlays are a sucker bet, that's why they give those odds. Stories like that only lure more dumb money. Stick to single bet slips, either moneyline or ATS when betting.

I always gamble I learned never ever ever do a damn parlae! Just fo a str8 up bet

[pstall]

I suddenly feel like I pointed out something blatantly obvious.

A stockbroker doesn't buy a stock to make it go up.

I see what you mean but that's not how it works.

Market maker is much dif than a stockbroker.