2014 Game by Game Analysis - Part 4

[UpstatePanther]

Week 3 Preview & Prediction:

Carolina Panthers (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) ,

1:00pm, 28 September, 2014

 

     

 

Carolina Offense vs. Baltimore Defense:

 

     Wow. What an embarrassment last week on national TV huh? The Panthers offense started off alright, moving down the field against the Pittsburgh defense, but it felt like every time they had the ball, they shot themselves in the foot. The execution on the offense simply wasn't there, and mistake after mistake doomed Carolina by the middle of the 4^th quarter. This, unfortunately, has been a pattern for the Carolina offense, and one can only hope that the coaches are doing everything in their power to motivate the players for next weekend. So what exactly went wrong last week?

 

     To begin with, Carolina did not run the ball. They had a total, yes a total, of 10 rushing attempts against Pittsburgh. I can't read the coaches minds, but perhaps they fell into the trap of thinking they couldn't run the ball. Carolina came out throwing the ball, and at first it seemed to work well. But this played right into Pittsburgh's hands. They wanted to keep Carolina one-dimensional. An injury to Jonathan Stewart didn't help, but this happened a well into the game and long before Carolina should have established the run. I understood the gameplan it seemed the coaches were going for: do what we do best, which surprisingly (at this point) is throw the ball. But, to not run the ball against this Pittsburgh team which showed its weakness over the last two weeks at stopping the run was foolishness in my opinion.

 

     Nevertheless, Carolina was still in the game until late mistakes by the other two units of the team put circumstances out of the offense's reach, mainly due to giving Pittsburgh late momentum in the game. Losses at home on primetime television with hoards of “visiting” fans cheering on the opponent as they cream the home team? It tends to light fires under the asses of good teams. The way Carolina responds this coming week in Baltimore will tell us a lot about what kind of team we have this year.

 

    I am still not sold on the concept that Carolina cant run the football. I truly think we can and that we should. Yes, the offensive line has been... well... offensive when run-blocking for the Panthers' running backs. And yes, Carolina has become (shockingly) thin at the position. But the first two weeks of the season were against teams that tend to have a stifling run defense, and in Week 3, the Panthers were playing catch-up the whole game and didn't feel like they had the luxury of running the football. So should the Panthers attempt to run the ball this week against the Ravens?

 

     No. For the first time this season, I don't think the Panthers should try running the ball. Baltimore has been giving up only 89.7 rushing yards per game, good for 8^th in the league. With Carolina's RB corps thin and their O-line unable to create sufficient running room for the backs, it might be best to only use the running game in short-yardage situations (I.e.- 2^nd & 3 or 3^rd & 1). Baltimore, like Pittsburgh, runs a 3-4 defense. But unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore's linebacking corps is full of studs. And their defensive line isn't bad either. I just don't see Carolina having a lot of success if they try running the ball in long distance situations this week. Therefore, they shouldn't try.

 

     I agree with the mantra to do what one is best at, especially if one's strength is also the opponent's weakness. For the Panthers offense, that is the passing game. For all the talk of Carolina's receiver exodus during the offseason, this unit sits at number 10 in passing yards per game with just under 260 yards per game. Meanwhile the Ravens defense has been surrendering around the same amount of yards per game. But Carolina, if they choose not to focus on the running game, will need to keep their passing game unpredictable. They can start by doing what Pittsburgh did against the Carolina defense: getting the ball out to the RB in the flat. Deangelo Williams looks to be coming back this weekend after missing last week's game, and we all know he is better in space than between the tackles. Give the man the ball where he can make something out of it. But, that alone will not keep the passing game sufficiently unpredictable.

 

     The much discussed multiple tight end sets haven't seemed to make a huge impact on the Panthers' gameplan as of yet. And honestly, this game may not be the best time to break them out with four linebackers roaming the defensive backfield for Baltimore. However, unless the Carolina defense comes out with their hair on fire and scores a few touchdowns of their own, the Panthers will need to keep their passing game unpredictable. They may be left with no choice but to break it out. Utilizing the 2-TE or even 3-TE set will help keep the defense guessing. I would be perfectly fine seeing Cam Newton in the shotgun most of the game with Kelvin Benjamin and Jerricho Cotchery/Jason Avant split wide, the three top tight ends (Olsen, Dickson, and Williams) on the inside, and Mike Tolbert in to pass protect. Unfortunately, Tolbert was placed on short-term IR on Tuesday. This may rule out the 3-TE receiving set, as one of the tight ends may need to pass block. But the formation still should see the field to mix things up and make it more difficult for the Ravens defense.

 

     This formation wouldn't be the Panther's bread and butter though, unless they can create some mismatches. It would however, set Newton up nicely for some designed QB keepers, especially with the blockers the Panthers are blessed to have in their receivers/tight ends. The sheer versatility of this formation would give the Panthers at least some measure of success, especially on early downs with long distance to gain. But the benefit of this 2-TE/3-TE formation would be its ability to open up the receivers down the field.

 

     For all of Baltimore's strength in the front seven, the back four seems to be filled with no-names. Against the flashy Kelvin Benjamin and sure-handed Cotchery and Avant, they might well be carved up, if the o-line can protect Cam Newton. Cotchery was listed as probable as of Wednesday after missing the Steelers game. Even some of our tight ends could find success catching passes down field. As I said, however, this all depends on Newton being able to get the ball out. Through the first three games, the offensive line has given up eight sacks, and Carolina's QBs have been under duress even more often.

 

     The key to keeping Newton upright (which Carolina's entire offense will hinge on for the rest of the season it seems) will not be offensive line play, contrary to popular belief. As tempting as it is to say that the line needs to play better, the key to Carolina's passing success comes from something Pittsburgh did against the Panthers last week. They didn't depend on their o-line to protect the QB. Instead, they thrived on short passes that didn't give the Carolina defense enough time to rush the passer. I think that going forward, Carolina needs to learn from what beat them. Don't worry about protecting Cam for 4-5 seconds. Use short routes that gain 5 or so yards and have a high completion percentage. Don't give opposing defenses the time to get to Newton. I also think it would behoove the coaching staff, if Newton is healthy enough, to encourage him to be himself. Tell him to make two or three quick reads, roll out if necessary, and then tuck it and run.

 

     In two games, Newton has seemed afraid to run. He has certainly not been his normal athletic self. I do believe that he is still feeling the effects of both his ankle surgery and his rib injury, so the coaching staff needs to be careful about giving Newton freedom. But at the same time, Newton needs that freedom. It benefits this offense and stokes a fire in their eyes when their leader makes a play out of what isn't there. This has been absent from the Carolina offense, and it needs to return. As I said, have Newton make a few quick reads, and if nothing is there, tuck the ball and run it. Newton is generally smart about getting down before taking a big hit in the open field, so if I were the coaches, I wouldn't be so worried about him injuring or re-injuring himself. Newton took a beating in the pocket in last week's game and was noticeably uncomfortable, but wasn't listed on injury reports this week, and Carolina fans should take that as a good sign.

 

     A few final notes: Baltimore is giving up just under 17 points per game. Carolina is scoring 21 points per game. Carolina has had a big problem scoring points in the first half of games this season. This trend needs to change immediately. Perhaps the Panthers can survive Baltimore without scoring early, but after this the games get much tougher and it will be imperative that the Panthers establish early leads and force opponents to play to Carolina's strengths. Hopefully the team heals up well this week and is pissed off about the smelly dump they took on the field last weekend.

 

Carolina Defense vs. Baltimore Offense:

 

     If the offense was embarrassing Sunday night, the defensive performance was absolutely humiliating. Carolina's much vaunted defense got gashed in every phase of the game. Pittsburgh found the one soft spot in Carolina's defense: defending the short pass. The Steelers started the game dinking and dunking the Panthers, giving little time for Carolina's front four to get to Roethlisburger. Unfortunately, this had two consequences for the Carolina defense.

 

     First of all, the short passes completely neutralized Carolina's pass rush. And by the time the Steelers called pass plays that took longer to develop, it seemed as though Carolina's defensive line was gassed. Couple that with Roethlisburger's propensity to wiggle out of trouble (no pun intended, or maybe it is. We'll never know), and its easy to see why Carolina only had one sack after I predicted they would have upwards of four last week. Roethlisburger usually had a lot of time in the pocket to throw the ball, and even when Carolina forced him out of the pocket, he still completed many passes to his receivers. The Panthers' secondary seemed to do an average job keeping up with Pittsburgh's receivers. With Roethlisburger having all day to throw, it wasn't hard for Antonio Brown and others to give him an open window.

 

     Roethlisburger was especially efficient when he was forced out of the pocket, unlike most other quarterbacks the Carolina defense forces out. The Pittsburgh offense also found especially efficient rhythm throwing screen passes. I cant remember how many times Roethlisburger threw the ball out into the flat. Carolina, per usual, did a nice job swarming the ball in those situations. But, the Steelers were also able to create some broken tackles that gained them yards after the catch.

 

     The other consequence of the short passing game was to open up the run. And damn did Pittsburgh run all over the Panthers. Take away the 80 and 50 yard runs the Panthers gave up from inside the Pittsburgh 10 yard line (God what backbreakers those where...) and the Steelers still managed around 130 yards on 32 attempts for around 4 yards per carry. This is what I had hoped the Panthers would do to the Steelers when I wrote the preview for last week.

 

     It was just a bad week for the Carolina defense. The balanced and unpredictable attack from Pittsburgh got Carolina on its heels early. I have a feeling that the combination of overaggressiveness and being on their heels is what caused the Panthers' defense to make mental mistakes and have miscommunications that are completely uncharacteristic of the defense we fans have come to expect and enjoy. Even Luke Kuechly didn't look good. However, sometimes good teams just get beat. I don't think Carolina overlooked Pittsburgh. Some media outlets are saying they did. Pittsburgh was fresh and without key injuries. They had extra time to prepare. And, they expertly manipulated the momentum of the game to their favor. And lets not forget that the Panthers defense had kept the game within reach until four minutes into the fourth quarter. I expect a rebound this week against the Ravens, though it certainly wont be an easy matchup.

 

     It's Ravens week. And that means its also Steve Smith week. However, Steve Smith cannot carry the Raven offense just like he couldn't carry the Panther offense. He has certainly had some typical Agent89 plays already this season, but he has by no means been the sole key to the Ravens two wins. In fact, one of his great plays this season came in a losing effort Week 1 at home versus Cincinnati. Don't get me wrong. Smith is certainly capable, even at his ripe old age, to make this a “blood and guts” game. But he is no more than a role player in the Raven offense.

 

     Baltimore gave up three sacks, an interception, and a fumble to Cincinnati in game one, and Cincinnati still only won by six points. The Panther defense needs to look to emulate Cincininati's performance if they want to give their offense a chance at winning this game. And that begins by putting Joe Flacco on his back. Surely the Ravens are studying the tape from last week and see that quick passes can beat the Carolina defense. So it is imperative that the Panthers' secondary play up on their men this game. They have to give their defensive line time to get to Flacco because Flacco is not Roethlisburger. He certainly is not Cam Newton. Though Flacco has a Super Bowl ring, I would compare him more to Jay Cutler, i.e. - a glorified Josh McCown. Quarterbacks like Flacco can be forced into mistakes with pressure and sacks. So the Carolina defense must work as a unit to create that pressure. Steve Smith can't bloody the Panthers if there's no passes (or uncatchable passes) being thrown his way. Add to that the fact that Denis Pitta will be out for this game and for a while (poor guy, I really do feel bad for him) and this game might be difficult for Joe Flacco. Owen Daniels is not Denis Pitta, and aside from the Smiths, what else does Flacco have?

 

     Getting pressure on Flacco doesn't look as easy on paper as getting to Roethlisburger did last week. The Ravens seem to have a better offensive line. The center-left of the Baltimore OL seems to be its weak spot. Center Jeremy Zuttah isnt one of the top in the league at his position, and left guard Osemele leaves a lot to be desired. Top talent Eugene Monroe was holding down the left tackle position, but the Ravens made the interesting move of elevating undrafted rookie James Hurst to the starting position this week. And, to the right there is the stellar Marshal Yanda at guard and the less-than-stellar Rick Wagner at right tackle. I am no defensive line expert so I wont speculate on who to match up against which Ravens O-lineman. I will say, however, that Carolina needs to end the Colin Cole experiment. Rotational player sure. But Kawaan Short needs to get the starting job. Short has been playing better than Cole and from what I hear, Short was one of the few bright spots for Carolina last Sunday.

 

     The secondary can give the defensive line time to get to Flacco, and maybe they do just that. But the Ravens have more than just a passing game. They have rushed for 137 yards per game so far this season. The Ravens are still a pass-heavy team, but their running game is nothing to overlook. But that is one thing that I don't expect from the Panthers after last Sunday. There is no way that Luke Kuechly misses his holes again this Sunday. The man is a student and takes everything as a learning experience. Maybe I am trusting him alittle too much, but he makes it very easy to do so. I am willing to say that if Kuechly would have had a better game last week, it would have been a very different outcome. But we are on this week, and Kuechly will be out for his own blood and guts.

 

     The injury to Thomas Davis, however, is very concerning. The Panthers say he will be reevaluated on Friday so that doesn't give me much hope of him playing this Sunday. Get well soon TD. God knows the Panthers need you. It looks as if the LB corps will be Kuechly, Blackburn, and Klein. This is an above average group (whereas it is elite with TD starting) and they will have to play outstanding to replace Davis for this game. All this being said, I do believe they are capable of it. There is little chance that Kuechly repeats last week, and the other two will be highly motivated too. They'll need to be to stop the Ravens' running game. The defensive line will also need to be on its toes. Getting penetration (regardless of whether the play is run or pass) will go a long way in earning a win for the Panthers.

 

     This Carolina defense is out for blood, which ought to be a scary thing for the next couple opponents. Want evidence? Look at their performance after the beat down the Saints gave us last year. Or the performance after the beat down Arizona handed the Panthers last year. This team, even with a small sample size, has shown the ability to bounce back very strong after being smacked in the mouth, especially on defense. Not only that, but last week's performance, or lack thereof, was simply not the type of defensive play that this team normally puts on the field. I fully expect the defense to play better, even if they don't have a monster game. Also, for comparison: the Ravens are scoring 22 points per game while Carolina is giving up just over 19.

 

The Intangibles:

 

     Well... the Panthers have lost the division lead due to the division-record tiebreaker with the Falcons. A win in Baltimore doesn't remedy this, but a loss will definitely hurt the Panthers by putting them a game behind the Falcons with both games in the interdivision series still to play. Carolina needs this win to keep pace in the division. Atlanta will be playing in Minnesota, and coming off a gaudy trouncing of the lowly Buccaneers. There is a chance that Minnnesota, with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater starting, could pull off the win so long as they contain Matt Ryan. This seems possible because they contained Drew Brees last week. Carolina fans should be cheering for Mr. Bridgewater to light up the Falcons' defense on Sunday. Also factoring in this equation is the team lead by that very same Drew Brees. The Saints are travelling to Dallas to take on a Jeckle and Hyde Cowboys team. Again, there is a chance that the Cowboys could pull this game off. But I somehow find that less likely than the Vikings pulling off the upset against Atlanta. To bring all this full circle, it is imperative that the Panthers steal a win in Baltimore this week. Doing so could possibly give them the division lead back, and put them two games ahead of the Saints again.

 

     Something else to consider in this equation is just how badly the Panthers were embarrassed last weekend. At home. On Primetime. With thousands of opposing fans heckling them all game long.... Let's just say I don't envy the Ravens for having to play this Carolina team this particular weekend. Additionally, Carolina's players have to understand that the toughest teams still lay ahead of them. Thats not to say the Ravens don't matter. In fact, I am saying the Ravens matter all the more. This game is a must win for the Panthers. This is as easy as it will come for a good 7 weeks. And who knows, if Cleveland continues its surprising rise (argue with me if you want. Cleveland nearly beat both this strong Ravens team and the Pittsburgh team that trashed the Panthers last week), there may be no let up from here on out except in the Week 12 bye. The players need to understand that this game is a must win, because wins might not come nearly as easily from now on.

 

     As for the Ravens, there is the obvious storyline of Steve Smith. The man will be out to make good on his “blood and guts” promise. And, I expect a fairly good game from him. Hell if the Panthers cant start quick this week, it may be an outstanding game for #89. Also playing into this game for the Ravens, they can take a step toward overtaking the division-leading Bengals (who have a bye) this week with a win. Also, after the beating they gave the Steelers, it behooves the Ravens to keep pace with them in case the Steelers win later in the season when the two play again. The Steelers play the Buccaneers this week, and lets face it, its not likely that the Steelers lose to the Buccaneers.

 

     This game will start at 1:00pm. Temperatures are forecast to be around 78°F at the start of the game and actually look to rise a few degrees during the game. Humidity will be around 40-45% throughout the game and cloud cover should be around 25% throughout the game. These will combine to give a RealReel® of around 82°F.

 

     The Panthers will be wearing their standard white away uniforms.

 

Prediction:

 

     The Panthers are scoring 21 points per game while the Ravens are giving up 17. The Ravens are scoring 22 points per game while the Panthers are giving up 19. Average those two and put it in a score... Panthers 19, Ravens 20. I cant argue with that. These teams seem fairly even, and each has a strength against the other. This game will come down to who can retain momentum, who can impose their will, and who makes the least amount of mistakes. Putting on my homer glasses and taking the Panthers in this game, but its going to be close because both teams have a lot of motivation to win.

 

     24-21

 

     Panthers 3-1

 

Elsewhere in the NFL:

 

Giants @ Redskins            Redskins

Packers @ Bears               Bears

Bills @ Texans                   Bills

Titans @ Colts                   Colts

Lions @ Jets                      Lions

Buccaneers @ Steelers     Steelers

Dolphins @ Raiders           Raiders

Jaguars @ Chargers          Chargers

Eagles @ 49ers                 Eagles

Falcons @ Vikings             Falcons

Saints @ Cowboys             Saints

Patriots @ Chiefs               Patriots

 

Bye: Bengals, Broncos, Browns, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks

 

My percentage correct last week, counting Carolina's game, was 13/16 or 81%

My total percentage, counting Carolina's games, is 32/48 or 67%

 

The NFL After Week 3:

 

[igor]

We did not run the ball because we cant, worst running game ive ever seen , silatolu and turner are horrible so is bell only decent one is kalil but ryan cant block everyone at the same time. Why not put in mr hogmollie aka norwell

[igor]

Im so pissed about our defense I understand hardys not with us but no excuse to give up 50 plus runs.

I believe it has to do with our safetys decoud and harper , they are dragging our team down

[Mr. Scot]

The idea behind the offensive line right now is that this overall young group will (hopefully) gel into a cohesive unit that will protect Cam and open running lanes for the next several years.

 

So the question you have to ask yourself is whether this past game was just a rough learning experience on the road to that future or did this show us that a couple of the basic cogs we're building this machine with need to be replaced.

[UpstatePanther]

We did not run the ball because we cant, worst running game ive ever seen , silatolu and turner are horrible so is bell only decent one is kalil but ryan cant block everyone at the same time. Why not put in mr hogmollie aka norwell

Im so pissed about our defense I understand hardys not with us but no excuse to give up 50 plus runs.

I believe it has to do with our safetys decoud and harper , they are dragging our team down

 

i wouldnt oppose putting norwell in to see what he can do. as for our safeties... can you give a suggestion as to what you would do to fix the situation? please consider the cap, team chemistry, team needs, etc.

 

for now, i think DeCoud and Harper are fine. They ought to be back-ups next season though, if they are even retained.

 

The idea behind the offensive line right now is that this overall young group will (hopefully) gel into a cohesive unit that will protect Cam and open running lanes for the next several years.

 

So the question you have to ask yourself is whether this past game was just a rough learning experience on the road to that future or did this show us that a couple of the basic cogs we're building this machine with need to be replaced.

 

i think both are true. this line will get better. but it doesnt seem to be heading in an elite direction. the team will have to add more pieces this coming offseason. hell if it doesnt get better soon, changes will need to be made before the end of this season.

[igor]

i wouldnt oppose putting norwell in to see what he can do. as for our safeties... can you give a suggestion as to what you would do to fix the situation? please consider the cap, team chemistry, team needs, etc.

for now, i think DeCoud and Harper are fine. They ought to be back-ups next season though, if they are even retained.

i think both are true. this line will get better. but it doesnt seem to be heading in an elite direction. the team will have to add more pieces this coming offseason. hell if it doesnt get better soon, changes will need to be made before the end of this season.

we cant do anything with our safetys unless tre bostons heathy and can step up but not to sure about that