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2014 Game by Game Analysis - Part 3

UpstatePanther

By UpstatePanther,
in Carolina Panthers

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UpstatePanther

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Week 3 Preview & Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers, 8:25pm,

21 September, 2014

PRIMETIME

 

2tq37anz.jpg     8l2b633w.jpg

 

Carolina Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense:

 

     The Pittsburgh Steelers come to their home away from home for this Week 3 NFL matchup. Its an unfortunate fact that no fanbase is as plagued by transplant Steelers rivals as Panthers fans are. Every time this team comes to Charlotte, the Vault turns green from all the yellow mixing with the blue seats... or maybe thats just Steelers fans shitting on themselves like normal. Regardless, the Steelers are coming to town this week. How do Cam and company prepare for the invasion? Well... It may help to pound the rock. I've said this for two weeks, but that was against 4-3 defenses for different reasons. The Steelers are running a 3-4 defense, a scheme in which it seems to me it would inherently be easier to run the ball on. The Panthers haven't run the ball well overall against two teams that boast a strong run defense. They only have 175 yards on 57 attempts, with only a single rushing TD to show for it. That's just over 3 yards per carry. However, the Steelers defense has surrendered 340 yards on 66 attempts for a 5 yard average. The Steelers have also given up 2 rushing TDs in as many games. If we only assume a reversion to the mean between the two teams, the Steelers will give up 129 yards on 29 attempts for nearly 4.5 yards per carry and a TD to the Panthers. But why is this? Well for starters, the Pittsburgh defensive line is mediocre at best. The starters (Cam Thomas, Steve McLendon, and Cameron Heyward) are all barely serviceable at their respective positions. Add to that the fact that McLendon is questionable for Sunday night's match due to an ailing shoulder. The linebacking corps isnt much to be feared either. Lawrence Timmons is good, but he is accompanied by rookie Ryan Shazier, second year underwhelming OLB Jarvis Jones, and some nobody called Jason Worilds. In other words, Pittsburgh's front seven leaves a lot to be desired, and little to be feared. Its entirely possible that they play better against a Carolina team struggling to run the ball, but it might be more likely that Carolina's offensive line plays better against lesser talent. Even if both happen and the teams revert to the mean, i'll take it. Give Carolina 40 more yards than their average and a TD and things will already be getting difficult for Pittsburgh the way Carolina's defense has been playing. The one thing that could hamper Carolina's efforts to run the ball more effectively could be injuries. Mike Tolbert looks to be fine after a scary moment for Panthers fans where the star fullback crawled out of the pile and simply sprawled out on the field following a goal line run. Reports from the Panthers are saying that he is okay and simply took a hard shot to the chest on the run. In other words, he had the wind knocked out of him. He was listed as a limited participant on Thursday. Deangelo Williams, whose surprising effort in the Tampa Bay game was crucial to the victory, should be back after missing the Lions game with a thigh injury. Williams is still nursing his injury but Coach Rivera said on Thurdsay he wasnt as concerned about Williams. Jonathan Stewart is healthy and looks to continue contributing. Stewart's runs have been impressive as of late, even when given less than desirable running room off the line of scrimmage. This offensive line is learning and gelling, they have had great moments and terrible moments so far this season, so the jury is out as to whether they are a long-term solution for the running game.

 

     The Steelers have a talented back four, but that doesn't mean Carolina wont be able to pass the ball on the Steelers. Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor are getting old, Mike Mitchell seems to have regressed to his Raider days before he came to Carolina, and Cortez Allen is no Richard Sherman. Each of these guys has (or has had in the past) talent, but given the age of this secondary, I find it hard to believe that they will find a lot of success against the Panthers' passing game. The Panthers simply need to avoid making mistakes and committing turnovers. I don't see turnovers being a problem because this offense, for all its propensity to be pedestrian at times, doesn't hand the ball to the other team very often. Neither is Pittsburgh's defense creating those occasions at the moment. Meanwhile, the Panthers have yet to give the ball up this season. I don't see that trend changing. Though if it does, it might not matter. Carolina will most likely score on this weak Pittsburgh defense, and I am confident enough, looking at their personnel, to say that Carolina will probably find the endzone two or more times. Honestly, that may be all the Panthers need to win this game the way Carolina's defense has been playing. I don't foresee the Pittsburgh defensive line causing a lot of problems for Cam Newton in this game. Its a weak defensive line to begin with, and Carolina's offensive line has been at least serviceable through two games against better defensive lines than Pittsburgh's. This is another chance for Byron Bell, Nate Chandler, Trai Turner, Amini Silatolu, and old man Kalil to make themselves look good in my opinion. Something else to note, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen were still listed on the injury report as of Thursday. They were, however, listed as full participants. All in all, Carolina is going to score points. Perhaps Pittsburgh's defense plays better than expected and creates a turnover or two. Maybe they get to Newton more than the Panthers would like. I honestly don't think it will make a difference. This Panther offense is good for at least 20 points against better defenses than Pittsburgh's. That's what they've shown us through two games so I have no reason to doubt them against a weak Steeler D. And, 20 points should be more than enough to put Pittsburgh in its place. Something else to consider: Pittsburgh is giving up 28 points per game and Carolina is scoring 22 points per game. The mean between the two is 25 points and its entirely believable that Carolina scores 25 points in this game.

 

Carolina Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense:

 

     Truthfully, I think Carolina is better than Pittsburgh on offense and defense. The Panthers could win this game with their offense, but its more likely that the offense just provides the points to break the will of an already beaten Steelers team. It is the Panthers defense that will win this game. The Steelers have an outstanding center in Mike Pouncey, and an above average guard in David DeCastro. Neither their starter (Kelvin Beachum) nor the backup at the left tackle position are top tier talents, and neither are the starter (Marcus Gilbert) and his backup at the right tackle position. Gilbert in particular has played badly, giving up four sacks over these first two games. In other words, this line can be taken advantage of, and should be against Carolina's stout front seven. It would not surprise me if the Panthers get to Roethlisberger upwards of four times, with constant pressure all night. It would absolutely shock me if Carolina cant put pressure on him. The Panthers will need to do that, because Roethlisberger does have weapons to throw to. Antonio Brown is certainly a threat, and it looks as though the Steelers will be getting free agent pick-up (and former New Orleans Saint) Lance Moore back from a groin injury that has kept him out these first two weeks. It remains to be seen if Moore will produce like he did with Drew Brees' passes being thrown his way. Moore was listed as a full participant in Thursday's practice. Carolina's secondary performed admirably last week against the much more high-powered Lions' offense, so one can hope that they should be able to perform better than admirably against the lesser competition from Pittsburgh. Tight end Heath Miller looks to play this Sunday as well. Miller has been a threat in the past, but last week against the Ravens, he was held to only 35 yards on 4 catches. Something tells me that with Kuechly and Davis roaming the backfield, Miller will see a repeat of last week. Not to mention that this Panthers' secondary performed well against rookie Eric Ebron last week.

 

     Running back is one position that the Steelers do have a lot of talent at. Their stable includes LeGarrette Blount, LeVeon Bell, rookie Dri Archer, and former Panthers' RB Tauren Poole. However, Carolina is holding opponents to 86 yards per game rushing, and the Steelers are only getting 113 yards per game, even with all that talent. That doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh. Even more ominous for Pittsburgh is that their offense has been basically inept at scoring points for the last six quarters of play, while Carolina is holding opponents to 10.5 points per game. The mean between Pittsburgh's points scored and Carolina's points allowed is 13.5. I just don't think that Pittsburgh's offense will have what it takes to overcome this stifling Carolina defense.

 

The Intangibles:

 

     This game means a lot for Carolina. The hated Saints are two games back in the division, Atlanta is 1-1 but playing poorly overall as a team, and the Buccaneers (even with all their talent) look to be the cellar dweller of the NFC South this season. Thursday Night Football gives the Panthers a chance at being 2 games ahead over all teams in the division, if the Panthers also win on Sunday night. If Atlanta loses to a desperate Buccaneers team, and the Panthers hand a loss to the Steelers, Carolina will be sitting pretty with a 3-0 record and a 2-game lead over both Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and possibly a 3-game lead over New Orleans. The stakes are already high, even in this early portion of the season. In addition to the stakes of this game, Carolina has a few other distractions and motivations. This game is in primetime, and NFL players and coaches live for opportunities like this to prove themselves on the national stage. Carolina has received accolades from the media for their performance so far this season, being ranked in the top 10 of almost every set of power rankings published this week. But they are still a “surprise” team to most people in the media. That probably wont change this whole season, but its a form of disrespect that the coaches probably aren't ignoring. Carolina is currently dealing with legal issues concerning one of its players, but this has been discussed ad nauseum on the Huddle so I wont discuss it much here. The team doesn't seem distracted by it, and that's all that matters. Hopefully this continues. After all, the Panthers did play well even with the player in question absent from the active roster last week against the Lions. This was the second straight week the Panthers won against a talented team with a backup in a key position. If they can continue to work so well as a team, this legal issue wont be any issue at all for the Panthers. Also playing into the team's motivation is the invasion that the Stadium experiences every time the Steelers come to town. Carolina is going to need to start fast and keep the “visitors” quiet from the start. Its ought to be insulting to the Panthers that even after 20 years, the Steelers' fanbase still has such a presence in the Carolinas that the Stadium is filled with Steelers fans for a matchup between the two teams.

 

     The Steelers also have some motivation to win this game. They are only a game back in their division. And, they are about as desperate as a 1-1 team can get, after poor showings in their first two games. Their arrow is trending down at the moment, and they will be looking to change that against a Panthers team that the media suddenly loves (when it isnt talking about DV). With the Browns and Ravens playing each other, Pittsburgh needs a win to keep pace in its division and not fall behind with one of those two teams. The division leading Bengals will play the Titans this weekend, a game they should win. But if the Bengals do lose, and the Steelers can pull it off in Carolina, that will set them up to tie the Bengals for the division lead (the Bengals would win the tiebreaker based on division record). Also something to consider, Pittsburgh has had a few extra days to rest and prepare for this game. Carolina has had the normal amount of time to prepare, so hopefully sheer talent and will can counteract whatever fresh-legs the Steelers gained with the extra couple days.

 

     And now, your local weather on the 8s... just kidding. This ain't no weather channel bullshit. Haha. Sunday evening looks to be clear with a temperature around 73°F dropping to 67°F overnight. Humidity should be around 74% and cloud cover around 16%, which will give a RealFeel® of around 69°F (will drop a few degrees during the game). Winds will be around 5mph out of the northeast.

 

     The Panthers will be wearing blue jerseys with silver pants.

 

Prediction:

 

     Earlier I talked about the averages between Pittsburgh's points-scored and Carolina's points-allowed, and also the reverse. I think if one were to put those two conclusions together, it would make a believable final score (one that just so happens to favor the Panthers by 11 points): 25-14. I don't believe the game will even seem that close. Some may cringe at me giving Pittsburgh more than what Detroit got last week against the Panthers, hell I cringe at it too. But I just cant shake the feeling that the final score will include a couple Pittsburgh touchdowns. I still think the Panthers win, and because 25 points is one of the most ungodly football scores known to man, I'll up to total to 27 because I have that much faith in the Panthers' offense over the Pittsburgh defense.

 

27-14

 

Panthers 3-0

 

Elsewhere in the NFL:

 

Buccaneers @ Falcons    Falcons

Chargers @ Bills              Chargers

Cowboys @ Rams           Cowboys

Redskins @ Eagles          Eagles

Texans @ Giants             Texans

Vikings @ Saints              Saints

Titans @ Bengals            Bengals

Ravens @ Browns           Ravens

Packers @ Lions               Lions

Colts @ Jaguars                Colts

Raiders @ Patriots          Patriots

49ers @ Cardinals           Cardinals

Broncos @ Seahawks     Seahawks

Chiefs @ Dolphins           Dolphins

Bears @ Jets                     Bears

 

My percentage correct last week, counting Carolina's game, was 10/16 or 62.5%

My total percentage thus far, counting Carolina's games, is 19/32 or 59.4%

 

The NFL After Week 3:

 

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BIGH2001 Grand Master

BIGH2001

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fair enough. still... i put alot of effort into these. if you are too lazy to read it, thats cool. but dont comment that you didnt read it. that just makes you look bad.

I have no doubt you put in a lot of effort. I read bits and pieces and I agree with your analysis.

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Frizzy350 Apprentice

Frizzy350

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Isn't that reverse similar to the statue of liberty play? It's pretty much it with the WR on an end around.

 

I'm not sure how close it is, but it reminded me a lot of the play action fake screen end around we ran in 2012 against the Saints in week 2.

 

To this day, knowing the outcome, when I watch that play I think the ball is in Stewart's hands.  A gimmicky Chud play ran with absolute perfect execution.

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xerxes Newbie

xerxes

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I'm not sure how close it is, but it reminded me a lot of the play action fake screen end around we ran in 2012 against the Saints in week 2.

To this day, knowing the outcome, when I watch that play I think the ball is in Stewart's hands. A gimmicky Chud play ran with absolute perfect execution.

Was that the Annexation of Puerto Rico one? Because that was epic. Taking a play straight from Little Giants.

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