2014 Game by Game Analysis - Part 2

[UpstatePanther]

Week 2 Preview & Prediction: Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00pm,

14 September, 2014

 

     

 

Carolina Offense vs. Detroit Defense:

 

     The Detroit Lions come into this Week 2 matchup fresh off a win at home against the New York Giants. However, I am still left wondering whether the Lions 35-14 trouncing of the G-men was due to the general talent of the Lions, or the general ineptitude of the Giants. Defensively, the Lions have a few playmakers. But, the unit as a whole isnt anything to sweat over, at least for an offense that has some sense of rhythm and its own playmaking ability. The Lions are in a completely new defensive scheme under new Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin, which points to the Lions' defense rankings as being inflated at this point by poor competition. The Lions defensive line is the strong suit of its defense. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are stud DTs that pressure the QB often. Panthers rookie guard Trai Turner and 2^nd year guard Amini Silatolu will have their hands full for the second week in a row. This week should get easier for Carolina's offensive tackles. The Lions have Ziggy Ansah at RDE, but he isnt known as an elite pass rusher. He's good, but nowhere near like Carolina's Hardy and Johnson. For perspective, Ansah played against New York's Will Beatty last week, and still only managed to record one half-sack. In other words, this game will give both of Carolina's offensive tackles a chance to make themselves look good. The Lions' linebacking corps does have DeAndre Levy, but not much else. It seems as though Carolina's running game could be it's best asset in this game. If Carolina's offensive line can get push against the Lion D-line and open up holes, it ought to be fairly easy to run on this defense. Its interesting that the Lions are currently sitting at 3^rd in the league in terms of defense against the run (opponent rushing yards), but this probably has more to do with the Giant's general ineptitude than the Lion's run-stuffing prowess. I expect a return to the mean this week where the Lions' defense looks above average at stopping the run, but still able to be effectively run on nonetheless. Unfortunately for Detroit, stopping the run is one of the very few ways that they can get the upper hand on this Panthers team. For the Panthers, running the ball will cause the LBs and secondary to play up on the line, and if Carolina can establish the run on this team, play-action will be absolutely deadly with Carolina's weapons (particularly Benjamin). Last week, Carolina survived on surprisingly efficient running from old man Williams, with healthy sprinklings of Jonathan Stewart. Mike Tolbert performed surprisingly badly, but look for him to rebound this week. Williams needs to keep his Week 1 form, Stewart needs to be used more, and Tolbert needs to be prepared to pound the rock when called upon. Carolina's offense will flourish this week if those three are all on their A-game. It might flourish anyway.

 

     One thing Detroit does not do well (despite it's current #2 ranking in opponents' yards per pass), is defend the pass. They opened the season playing a declining Eli Manning, who is also trying to get used to a new offensive system under a brand spanking new offensive coordinator. Oh and lets not forget the receiving corps whose only viable threats are Victor Cruz and the rookie Odell Beckham Jr. That the Giants could score 14 points with their general suckage says more about the Lions' defense than the Giants' offense. But I digress to the point at hand. Carolina's offense is much better than the Giants offense, and better in both phases at that. I find it hard to believe that the Lions' secondary will stifle these Panthers wide receivers, especially with the return of Cam Newton to the fray. Yes, Superman will be back this week. And as badly as he wanted to be on the field last week, you know he is itching to get back out there this week in front of the home crowd and ball out. Carolina put up 20 points last week against a better defense, and with a backup quarterback nonetheless. Sure, Cam might look rusty this week and might still have some timing issues with his receivers. But if Ron Rivera is confident enough in Newton's ability (even with a gimpy rib) to start him over Derek Anderson, then I have full confidence in the Panther's ability to put up respectable passing numbers, especially if the Panthers running game takes off. I noticed while watching the Lions game on Monday night that they kept rotating their safeties in and out. Some will say that Ihedigbo is a serviceable safety, but if the Lions werent comfortable keeping him in there over the no-name (Jerome Couplin) that backs him up at the strong safety position for most of the snaps, that doesn't bode well for the team's confidence. Add to that the fact that the Lions safety rotation is suffering injuries at the moment. Ihedigbo has been limited this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. Fellow safety Don Carey has also been battling injury this week, though he is not listed in the Lion's injury report. Its the same way at the cornerback position with mediocre starters and hurting depth. Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis are the starters. Yes, you can ask the same question I did... “Who?” CB Bill Bentley tore his ACL in Week 1, and while Detroit brought in Champ Bailey for a tryout this week, they didn't sign him. The Lions seem to want to promote someone from the practice squad. Truly, I don't foresee this Lion secondary, with the general mediocrity and injuries, being able to keep up with the Panthers' passing attack, especially if the Panthers' are running the ball effectively. It seems to me that the real game will be on the other side of the football for both teams.

 

Carolina Defense vs. Detroit Offense:

 

     Remember last week, Carolina only allowed 14 points to a much better offensive unit than the Giants, and then only because of a scheme adjustment late in the game when it was perceived as won. Carolina nearly pitched a shutout against the Bucs with all their weapons, while Detroit went hot and cold against the supremely dysfunctional Eli & Co. In other words, the Panthers played better defense against a better team than the Lions did in Week 1. Is this to say that the Panthers will stifle the Lions' offense? Not so fast. Matthew Stafford is an outstanding quarterback. He is prone to inconsistency and absolutely boneheaded mistakes, but the kid has an arm. And, he also the best receiver in the league (at the moment) to throw to in Calvin Johnson. Hell, Stafford even has a legitimate #2 in WR Golden Tate and legitimate TE threats in rookie Eric Ebron and veteran Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is nursing a foot injury but looks to be playing this Sunday. The running back position also appears to be strong with ex-Saint Reggie Bush leading the charge, and closer Joique Bell in the wings. This team is stacked with talent from top to bottom at the skill positions on offense. The one weak spot of the Lions' offense is the offensive line. RG Larry Warford and Center Dominic Raiola were both top-5 talents in the league last year at their positions. LT Riley Rieff is average, and RT LaAdrian Waddle is below average. Waddle, however, probably wont be starting this game due to a calf injury. His backup, Corey Hiliard, is out for the season with a Lisfranc injury. The next in line for the Lions are practice squad players Cornelius Lucas (UFDA) and Garrett Reynolds. RG Rob Sims is old and well below average. This o-line gave up one sack to the Giants defense last week, so with Carolina's ferocious front seven and the probability that a practice squad player will start at RT, one can expect to add at least three sacks to that number when the Lions come to town on Sunday (I predict there will be around five sacks, maybe more). Those sacks and the pressure will be essential. Carolina's secondary was extremely opportunistic in Week 1 and if Carolina can force Stafford to make bad throws, the Panthers will probably capitalize in a big way. Carolina also has to stop the Lions' offense from getting out the quick pass. With Johnson and Tate catching the passes, and Carolina's mediocre secondary unit, it will be difficult to stop this offense if they get into a rhythm. I don't think the Panthers will completely stifle the Detroit passing game, but it will help make matters easier if the Panthers can force the Lions to be one-dimensional. Greg Hardy has still been feeling the effects of a preseason shoulder injury, but the Panthers have him listed as probable for this game, and Coach Rivera said on Thursday that he is planning on Hardy playing. No one within or close to the Panthers organization has implied that Hardy is distracted by his legal trouble, but maybe that has changed with the explosion of other legal issues in the NFL this week. If Hardy is not himself, the Panthers should be just fine. Defensive end is the deepest position on the Panthers squad.

 

     Reggie Bush and Joique Bell mainly made their explosive plays in Week 1 on screens, check-downs, and outside runs. If the Panthers can keep those two from turning such plays into long-yardage plays, it will help the pass defense and force Stafford to try to beat Carolina with his arm. Bush has been nursing a knee injury, but is listed as probable for this game so it leaves one wondering how effective he will be on Sunday. Stifling Detroit's running game wont be the issue(Kuechly, Davis, and the Carolina D-line will make sure of that). But, defending against Detroit's pass will be. This whole game will come down to how well the Panthers defensive line and secondary can hold Stafford and Megatron in check. The Panthers would still have a chance to win if the Lions score more than 21 points, but each point beyond that scored by the Lions increases the chances that the Panthers slip at home in Week 2. This game will be a great preview of how the Panthers will fare against the likes of Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, and possibly even Cincinnati.

 

The Intangibles:

 

     Carolina is coming off their first season opening win in 5 seasons. This was met with complete surprise by almost everyone in the media, as was expected by the Panthers fanbase (who had instead generally expected a close Panthers win against a rebuilt and resurgent Buccaneers team). This game gives Carolina the chance to go 2-0 for the first time since 2008. Here's a bit of trivia for you: this would also give Carolina the opportunity to win both their season opener away and the home opener in separate games for the first time since 2008, and for only the 4^th time in their 20-year history. The other 3 times? 1996, 2003, 2008. Anyone notice a trend? Some of the best seasons in Panther history were kicked off by a season opening win on the road, and a subsequent win in the Big Blue Cathedral. But I digress... Even after Carolina's dominant performance against Tampa Bay last week, the Panthers are still ranked outside the top-10 by most of the media. Media members continue to point to the same dead-horse “weaknesses” on this Carolina team, but those position groups played well on Sunday. The Buccaneers certainly aren't the greatest test that Carolina will face this season, but they have plenty of talent, and Carolina still dominated for most of the game. Carolina shares the division lead with Atlanta at the moment, but has a great opportunity to capture an early solo lead in the division with a win against Detroit. Atlanta is playing in Cincinnati, a game they will probably lose. A loss for the Panthers could put them in a three or four way tie for the lead. New Orleans will probably win against the Browns, and Tampa hosts a despondent Rams team that took a beating by Minnesota, (yes Minnesota) last week. In other words, there is onus for the Panthers to take the early lead and run like hell with it. It also cannot be overstated that this is Carolina's home opener. The fan base will be rowdy and the team will still be itching to prove the haters wrong this season. Unfortunately, history is not on the Panthers' side. Carolina is 5-14 in home openers. But history is not on the Panthers' side at all this season. And, that's one of the main reasons the haters are hating so much. Hopefully the Panthers will be ready to make them all eat crow.

 

     Detroit also shares the lead in it's division with Minnesota after Minny's kick in the teeth to the Rams, Chicago's shocking loss at home to the Bills, and Green Bays loss in Seattle. Unlike Carolina, Detroit has brought in an entirely new coaching staff. Head Coach Jim Caldwell, an offensively-minded coach, was brought in from the Baltimore Ravens. He was followed shortly by the hirings of Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi and DC Teryl Austin. Caldwell has something of an NFL pedigree, winning Super Bowl XLI with the Colts as a quarterbacks coach and Super Bowl XLVII with Baltimore as the offensive coordinator. However, Lombardi and Austin are both in their first jobs as NFL coordinators. They had an easy start to the season with the Giants having come to town, but it remains to be seen how their systems will fare against better competition. They will certainly get their first true test this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. Detroit has also been the laughingstock of the NFL for many years due to their propensity to either give away promising seasons down the stretch, or simply play terrible all year. Perhaps the coaching staff has made that a point of emphasis and has Detroit fired up to start the season. The Lions are 7-12 in their first away game over the same period the Panthers have existed.

     Charlotte, NC is forecast for an afternoon high of 71°F, 79% humidity, and 94% cloud cover with a varying chance of precipitation around 50% during gametime. The Accuweather RealFeel® (heat index) is forecast to be around 70°F. In other words, its shaping up to be a dreary kind of day. Rain helps the Panthers against the dome-team Lions. Wind is forecast to be around 6 mph out of the SW, a perpendicular cross wind with Bank of America Stadium's northwest-southeast orientation. The game will kick off shortly after 1:00pm. Clouds and start time will prevent the angle of the sun being an issue for the teams during this game. I will update the weather Saturday evening.

 

     Carolina will be wearing the blue jerseys with silver pants.

 

     Carolina's Inactives: will update when official word is given.

 

Prediction:

 

     Carolina leads this series 4-2, and I don't see that gap shortening in this game. Detroit may well keep it closer, though, than most Carolina fans will be comfortable with. Cam Newton will probably look rusty and out of sync with his receivers at first, but I don't expect that to last long once the adrenaline begins to pump. The kid will have been itching to get out on the field and play some real football. It wouldn't surprise me if this game takes some late game heroics by the offense, though I hope not. I'll be there and I'd much rather the Panthers trash the Lions.

 

27-24

 

Panthers 2-0

 

Elsewhere in the NFL:

 

Steelers @ Ravens:            Ravens

Dolphins @ Bills:                 Dolphins

Jaguars @ Redskins:           Jaguars

Cowboys @ Titans:             Titans

Cardinals @ Giants:            Cardinals

Patriots @ Vikings:             Patriots

Saints @ Browns:                Saints

Falcons @ Bengals:             Bengals

Rams @ Buccaneers:         Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Chargers :     Seahawks

Texans @ Raiders:              Texans

Jets @ Packers:                    Packers

Chiefs @ Broncos:               Broncos

Bears @ 49ers:                    Bears

Eagles @ Colts:                    Colts

 

My percentage correct last week, counting Carolina's game, was 56.2% (9/16)

 

The NFL After Week 2:

[caatfan]

I think the Panther defense will eat up their OL. Just need to score enough points.

 

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00pm - need to flip that around.

[UpstatePanther]

I think the Panther defense will eat up their OL. Just need to score enough points.

 

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00pm - need to flip that around.

 

edited thanks caatfan

[mbarbour21]

Great writeup. I agree Cam will prob be a bit rusty, but hopefully he can get a couple completions early and spark some confidence. We gotta win the games we have advantages in. This is one of those games IMO. Our offense vs their defense is our advantage. If we start out strong and make them one dimensional, it could be a track meet for Stafford. Oh yeh, and DONT LET UP! Its not over til its over! KEEP POUNDING!

Edited to add score:

31-21 PANTHERS

(It will be closer than the score shows)

[dos poptarts]

honestly, TLDR, but I will get to it.

[Panthers_Rake]

Great Write-up! Was that yours? If so could you do me one wee-little favor and next time break it down into paragraphs?

 

 

[UpstatePanther]

31-21 PANTHERS

 

God i hope so. im not so confident. like i said in the write up, i´m gonna be there. i have a seat waiting for me in section 536 so i hope the score ends up like that. 

[UpstatePanther]

Great Write-up! Was that yours? If so could you do me one wee-little favor and next time break it down into paragraphs?

 

thanks yes this is original work. i do plenty of research for these, but the opinions are all mine. most of it is just parroting what facts are out there and then drawing my own conclusions based on what i see. when doing my research, i stay away from opinion articles. i try to stick to stat sheets, except for the OL. i know nothing about offensive line philosophy so i depended on bleacher report's rankings for OTs, OGs, and Cs. they seem to break it down very well by performance instead of opinion so i trust it. 

 

yes next time i will write it with spaces. i'll go ahead and edit this thread accordingly now. thanks.

[Thats2]

Look, I'm a Lions fan, and I fully expect to lose this game, mostly because:

1) Road game, possibly in the rain.

2) Your style of game is such that every mistake is magnified, and we tend to make a lot of mistakes.

3) We're still coming into our new offense and defense, as such, mistakes will still happen (see #2).

4) I think we'll rush for like 12 yards.

5) I'm a pessimist.

But this analysis... well let's just say I had to create an account just to point out some of its inherent flaws.

First of all, the second part, CAROLINA DEFENSE VS. DETROIT OFFENSE, doesn't even make sense. You point out how well you did against the Bucs. OK, that's fine. But you compare it to how we did stopping the Giants. Uh, that's our DEFENSE. What does that have to do with our offense? "In other words, the Panthers played better defense against a better team than the Lions did in week 1". What?

Second, you vastly underrate our run defense, something that any cursory glance at the numbers last year would have straightened out for you. We were sixth or seventh (off the top of my head) against the run last year, and those numbers are skewed by the LeSean McCoy snow game, when our defense was running on skates and gave up 200+ yards to the guy. Only twice did opposing RB's go over 100 yards against us: McCoy, and Peterson's backup in the last game of the year a week after we'd been eliminated from the playoffs. Stopping the run is something we do very well.

That said, stopping a running QB is something we generally don't do so well, so Cam should have his opportunities, provided the coaches will let him (and I suppose, even if they'd prefer he didn't).

My last point is your take on our O-Line. Only Peyton Manning was sacked less than Stafford last year. They're very good pass blockers. I'm well aware that you guys have some pass-rushing monsters on the line, and I suppose they'll get theirs, but I doubt if it shows up as sacks. Heavy pressure is what you should be looking for, kinda what we did against the Giants when we harried Eli but didn't sack him so much.

Again, a caveat. Stafford, like Manning, is very good at getting the ball out quickly. Sometimes too quickly, as in rushed. So yeah, that should definitely be a point of emphasis, as I'm sure it is every week for you guys. But that's not to take too much away from our O-Line. Much more often than not, they give Stafford plenty of time.

[Pox2]

Odell Beckham Jr has been injured since the preseason. He has yet to play a game (missed all of the preseason games too). They don't expect him to be back for atleast another week or 2 last time I read.

 

 

[CPantherKing]

Lions offense has always been a perrenial loser. They regularly play soft defenses since the Stafford - Johnson combo hit the league. They pile up numbers on garbage defenses and struggle against top 10 defenses.

That is who they are, and that is not changing with the constant changes on that teams coaching staff.

The stats over the years show their trends.

[melvin2345]

I agree with the majority of what you had to say, but I wanted to point out a few things.

Its interesting that the Lions are currently sitting at 3^rd in the league in terms of defense against the run (opponent rushing yards), but this probably has more to do with the Giant's general ineptitude than the Lion's run-stuffing prowess. I expect a return to the mean this week where the Lions' defense looks above average at stopping the run, but still able to be effectively run on nonetheless.

The Lions were 6th in the NFL in rushing defense last year. Yes, it helped that the Giants were awful, but run defense is something the Lions are generally quite good at. Your entire perspective on the Carolina offense is predicated upon them establishing the run, which is by no means a guaranteed thing.

Some will say that Ihedigbo is a serviceable safety, but if the Lions werent comfortable keeping him in there over the no-name (Jerome Couplin) that backs him up at the strong safety position for most of the snaps, that doesn't bode well for the team's confidence.

Ihedigbo didn't play at all against the Giants. He was injured the week prior and sat the game out.

The one weak spot of the Lions' offense is the offensive line. RG Larry Warford and Center Dominic Raiola were both top-5 talents in the league last year at their positions. LT Riley Rieff is average, and RT LaAdrian Waddle is below average. Waddle, however, probably wont be starting this game due to a calf injury. His backup, Corey Hiliard, is out for the season with a Lisfranc injury. The next in line for the Lions are practice squad players Cornelius Lucas (UFDA) and Garrett Reynolds. RG Rob Sims is old and well below average. This o-line gave up one sack to the Giants defense last week, so with Carolina's ferocious front seven and the probability that a practice squad player will start at RT, one can expect to add at least three sacks to that number when the Lions come to town on Sunday (I predict there will be around five sacks, maybe more).

They allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the NFL last year. Below average lines don't do that. Waddle will indeed be out, so RT is a concern, but between Stafford's quick release and chip blocks from TEs/RBs, there is again, no guarantee that you guys will be able to generate the pressure you are expecting.

[CPantherKing]

I agree with the majority of what you had to say, but I wanted to point out a few things.

The Lions were 6th in the NFL in rushing defense last year. Yes, it helped that the Giants were awful, but run defense is something the Lions are generally quite good at. Your entire perspective on the Carolina offense is predicated upon them establishing the run, which is by no means a guaranteed thing.

Ihedigbo didn't play at all against the Giants. He was injured the week prior and sat the game out.

They allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the NFL last year. Below average lines don't do that. Waddle will indeed be out, so RT is a concern, but between Stafford's quick release and chip blocks from TEs/RBs, there is again, no guarantee that you guys will be able to generate the pressure you are expecting.

The Lions also have 1 win on the road against a top 10 defense in the Stafford - Johnson era.

Stafford with that quick system reduced sacks, but he had 12 fumbles.

Lions use the Saints offensive system now. The Panthers know that system well. Lions do not have Sean Payton. Advantage Panthers.

[UpstatePanther]

I agree with the majority of what you had to say, but I wanted to point out a few things.

The Lions were 6th in the NFL in rushing defense last year. Yes, it helped that the Giants were awful, but run defense is something the Lions are generally quite good at. Your entire perspective on the Carolina offense is predicated upon them establishing the run, which is by no means a guaranteed thing.

Ihedigbo didn't play at all against the Giants. He was injured the week prior and sat the game out.

They allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the NFL last year. Below average lines don't do that. Waddle will indeed be out, so RT is a concern, but between Stafford's quick release and chip blocks from TEs/RBs, there is again, no guarantee that you guys will be able to generate the pressure you are expecting.

 

 

Look, I'm a Lions fan, and I fully expect to lose this game, mostly because:

1) Road game, possibly in the rain.

2) Your style of game is such that every mistake is magnified, and we tend to make a lot of mistakes.

3) We're still coming into our new offense and defense, as such, mistakes will still happen (see #2).

4) I think we'll rush for like 12 yards.

5) I'm a pessimist.

But this analysis... well let's just say I had to create an account just to point out some of its inherent flaws.

First of all, the second part, CAROLINA DEFENSE VS. DETROIT OFFENSE, doesn't even make sense. You point out how well you did against the Bucs. OK, that's fine. But you compare it to how we did stopping the Giants. Uh, that's our DEFENSE. What does that have to do with our offense? "In other words, the Panthers played better defense against a better team than the Lions did in week 1". What?

Second, you vastly underrate our run defense, something that any cursory glance at the numbers last year would have straightened out for you. We were sixth or seventh (off the top of my head) against the run last year, and those numbers are skewed by the LeSean McCoy snow game, when our defense was running on skates and gave up 200+ yards to the guy. Only twice did opposing RB's go over 100 yards against us: McCoy, and Peterson's backup in the last game of the year a week after we'd been eliminated from the playoffs. Stopping the run is something we do very well.

That said, stopping a running QB is something we generally don't do so well, so Cam should have his opportunities, provided the coaches will let him (and I suppose, even if they'd prefer he didn't).

My last point is your take on our O-Line. Only Peyton Manning was sacked less than Stafford last year. They're very good pass blockers. I'm well aware that you guys have some pass-rushing monsters on the line, and I suppose they'll get theirs, but I doubt if it shows up as sacks. Heavy pressure is what you should be looking for, kinda what we did against the Giants when we harried Eli but didn't sack him so much.

Again, a caveat. Stafford, like Manning, is very good at getting the ball out quickly. Sometimes too quickly, as in rushed. So yeah, that should definitely be a point of emphasis, as I'm sure it is every week for you guys. But that's not to take too much away from our O-Line. Much more often than not, they give Stafford plenty of time.

 

thanks for the corrections guys. it doesnt change how i think the game will play out though...