Happy's Final model vs Pete Prisco - how the NFL pans out

[TANTRIC-NINJA]

Lol at Prisco thinking the Falcons will win 11 games...all signs point to 6 wins or less. They lost all their games WITH Julio Jones last season and that was with a Tony Gonzalez at TE.

And their defense got worse...ok Pete.

[Semaj]

I'm testing the theory that I can make the equivalent of computer monkeys do as well as the so called experts. I can't find Peter King's yet and if anyone has his final standings please post it. Prisco actually has some teams moving around which is more realistic. Prisco is getting to the point that people tend to not move teams around much and assume every game is going to be like 21-14.

My final standings. The Carolina result is mostly pure random variance not me manipulating the model.

Pete Prisco's

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24683167/predicting-every-nfl-game-heres-how-the-season-plays-out

Atlanta 11-5? That is too funny. I actually like Prisco but he is going to definitely get pied in the face on that one. He is overestimating Atlanta because of the loss of Julio last year. But their problems were much greater than 1 wideout who was injured. We will finish ahead of them.

[Semaj]

And why would the rams finish with a better record than us when they play in a tougher division and are missing a quarterback? He's just throwing darts at a dart board.

[Happy Panther]

Lol at Prisco thinking the Falcons will win 11 games...all signs point to 6 wins or less. They lost all their games WITH Julio Jones last season and that was with a Tony Gonzalez at TE.

And their defense got worse...ok Pete.

 

 

Atlanta 11-5? That is too funny. I actually like Prisco but he is going to definitely get pied in the face on that one. He is overestimating Atlanta because of the loss of Julio last year. But their problems were much greater than 1 wideout who was injured. We will finish ahead of them.

They added some big guys in the draft and FA. But their secondary isn't great and losing TG will hurt. I don't see it either. The media worships their QB too much.

 

Having said that I would be surprised if both ATL and TB stink again.

[Happy Panther]

And why would the rams finish with a better record than us when they play in a tougher division and are missing a quarterback? He's just throwing darts at a dart board.

He is actually. His is taking a score from week 1 2013 and assigning it to a matchup in week 1 of 2014. We are losing to the Bucs 49-27 because the Broncos beat the Ravens by that score last year.

[RoaringRiot]

Pretty much every iteration of this model has had the Panthers in the shitter.

Glad you went with the "realistic" one then.

Sent from my iPhone

[Semaj]

I sure hope your Saints prediction Is right dude. I would love it!

[PntherPryd]

No offense HP but regardless of results,  I think all of these exercises in predicting not only records but individual game scores are beyond ridiculous.

[keek59]

Arizona and Pittsburgh both 12-4? St Louis wins 7 games with Shaun Hill? The Jets win 8? The Panthers go 5-11 with the defense they have? Prisco is a clown.

[Happy Panther]

No offense HP but regardless of results,  I think all of these exercises in predicting not only records but individual game scores are beyond ridiculous.

 

To do so with any accuracy is basically impossible. Even if it were just predicting over under win totals.

 

I've just been fooling around with a model*. Hope to have it refined enough one day to gain some sort of betting edge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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