2014 Game by Game Analysis - Part 1

[UpstatePanther]

Hello there Huddlers. i would like to preface this outline by thanking everyone for their feedback in my original prediction thread after the draft this year. I took all of it into consideration when doing my research for this "update". However, due to the extreme difficulty i encountered trying to come up with accurate full-season predictions, i have decided to break up my predictions into a week-by-week endeavor. I found that there were far too many variables week-in and week-out for anyone (short of a veritable football guru) to accurately predict all sixteen regular season games in the NFL season before the season starts. So, with the thank you's and preface out of the way, i give you ViaVeritasVita's Week 1 analysis for the Carolina Panthers' season opener! as before and as always, all feedback and input is welcomed! WARNING: LONG THREAD

 

Week 1 Preview & Prediction: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25pm,

7 September, 2014

 

Carolina Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense:

     It looks as though Cam Newton will play in the opener, despite his rib injury. How much this will affect his play remains to be seen, but the kid is tough and competitive. If he plays smart and can play through the pain and whatever shots come his way, the injury wont be a major issue. Whether he can perform like normal through the pain will be the biggest question. Newton's throwing motion could definitely suffer, which would keep the Panthers offense from being especially dynamic. Our offense philosophy isn't necessarily dynamic, so being dynamic may not be imperative. As long as it equates to wins, it wont matter. In my opinion, Mike Shula should draw up a lot of those quick, intermediate passes that Newton is so good at. The quickness of these plays will keep Newton from being put on his back too often. To do this, the Panthers need to utilize the 2-TE set for more than just blocking and it may benefit the Panthers to come out of the gate throwing the ball. Throw all those big bodied receivers at the defense, someone is bound to get open. With Carolina's running game a relative unknown at the moment, it will also help the Panthers run the ball if they can get the linebackers to back off the line and respect the pass. This will open up holes for the Panthers' backs to run through. Tampa had a strong run defense last year, and it looks as though it will be even better with the addition of Michael Johnson on the right side of the line. Tampa's linebackers (outside of Lavonte David, and he's no Kuechly) are mediocre, so if the Panthers can get them to play back off the line, and the offensive line can open up adequate holes in Tampa's defensive line, the Panthers will find success in the run game. Of course, the Panthers need to do two things for this to work: 1) the offensive line needs to find some way to open up those holes for the back, and 2) Carolina needs to start Jonathan Stewart. Stewart is healthy and ran well during the preseason when given the opportunity and the holes to run through. His style will produce immediate results for the OL and motivate them to block to the best of their abilities.

     The immediate use of the 2-TE set, with Carolina's tall receivers split wide, probably wont immediately open up the long ball in the passing game. And, I'm not so sure that is a bad thing. Newton will have at least a fair amount of discomfort trying to heave a long ball 30+ yards down the field. While Tampa will be beatable, mistakes against them could set the Panthers up for yet another loss to start the season. And if Newton feels a twinge of pain mid-motion while trying to heave a long ball, it could sail on him right into a defender's arms. Perhaps for this game, its better to stick to the methodical offense that the Huddle seems so uncomfortable with. It may be Carolina's best option to keep from making mistakes. After all, Tampa's secondary is pretty good. The addition of Alterraun Verner will benefit the Buccaneers this season more than having Darrell Revis did last season because Verner fits the system, whereas Revis did not. Jonathan Banks, playing on the opposite side of the field from Verner, isnt bad either. Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson are adequate at the safety position since there is alot of strong defensive talent in front of them. The biggest weak link in Tampa's defense might be its pass rush. Carolina's offensive line has protected surprisingly well for the pass in the preseason, considering what the expectations were. If it can continue this trend against Tampa's defensive line, and if Newton can find early rhythm with his receivers, the Carolina passing game will find success. Tampa's pass rush has improved with the addition of Johnson, and the team still has Gerald McCoy. But the other starters, Akeem Spence and Adrian Clayborn, aren't known for their stellar pass rush. This works in Carolina's favor. Quick passes will serve a dual function: 1) keep the defense playing off the line which, as mentioned before, will open up the run game, and 2) keep Tampa's defensive line from pressuring Newton as much.

 

Carolina Defense vs. Tampa Bay Offense:

Its pretty much a given that Carolina's defensive line will play well. I fully expect our front to put pressure on Josh McCown. It will be difficult to rush the passer from the edge, but the middle of the Tampa's offensive line might afford the Panthers some opportunities to put the quarterback in the grass. Its good that Carolina has one of the best defensive end tandems in the league, because Tampa has one of the best tandems of offensive tackles to counter them. Recent free agent acquisition Anthony Collins is at LT (some of you might remember that the Panthers made an offer for his services, but Tampa was able to make a better offer and got the signing) and Tampa is starting Demar Dotson, a UFDA defensive lineman turned tackle, at the RT position (sound familiar?). Tampa Bay is high on Dotson; his GM, Jason Licht even said that Dotson was the best tackle on the team last year. The interior of Tampa Bay's line is its weak link. Guard Oniel Cousins isnt exactly a top tier talent. Some sources have him ranked below Carolina's own Chris Scott. Tampa did just trade for long-time New England guard Logan Mankins, but Mankins is old and we all know that New England doesn't just let go of talent. Mankins is a cast off, plain and simple. And he'll probably play like it. Couple that with the fact that he'll probably still be adjusting to Tampa's system and to his fellow lineman, and it seems clear that Mankins probably wont be a factor for this game. Center Evan Dietrich-Smith is one of the top centers in the league, but his weakness is creating space in the running game. If the Panthers can find some way to beat this line and get to McCown, Tampa will have a hard time passing. Also, if the Carolina d-line can prey on Dietrich-Smith's weakness, Tampa will struggle to run as well. This isnt to say that Tampa wont find some success passing the ball. They do have a stellar additions in the 6'5” WR Mike Evans and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. And Carolina will have to cover Vincent Jackson as well. Jackson is a formidable receiver who has had at least 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns every season since 2008 (with the exception of 2010 when he held out for 10 games over a contract dispute in San Diego). With these weapons, it is imperative that the Carolina defense make Josh McCown look like the career backup journeyman that he has normally been by putting his face in the Raymond James bermuda. Sacking/pressuring him will rattle him and cause him to make mistakes, mistakes the Carolina secondary needs him to make in order to have success defending against the receiving weapons on this team. If the Panthers can't get adequate and consistent pressure on McCown, look for the Tampa offense to have success passing the ball against Carolina's weak secondary.

     It will also help Carolina's secondary if the Panthers can make the Buccaneers play one-dimensionally. I am more confident that this will happen than I am that the defensive line will sack McCown. All of Carolina's starters are returning on the DL and in the linebacking corps, and defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short are going to be even better in year two. Carolina held opposing offenses to 87 yards per game rushing last season, and all indications point to Carolina having a better run defense this year due mainly to continuity and experience. The defensive line is helped by star linebackers Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, and formidable OLB Chase Blackburn. This unit's ability to aid its defensive line in stopping the run helped Carolina's defense to be ranked second in the league last year. With all that being said, Tampa also has a talented running back in Doug Martin. And even his back ups are talented, as the league learned last year when Martin was out with injury. I don't think this will matter though. Unless Tampa can get Carolina's defense on its heels right off the bat, I just don't see their running game having a terrible amount of success. Tampa might find just enough success to keep the Panthers defense honest against the run, but I don't think it will be enough that the Buccaneers will be able to make the Panthers defense stack the box.

 

The Intangibles:

     Naturally, there is a lot of hope for both teams this time of year. The Panthers are coming off a 12-4 season and, while the sports media seems oblivious to the outstanding talent still wearing Carolina Blue, Panthers fans have been watching their team's performance with an expectancy and excitement that has never existed among the fanbase before. The Panthers and we fans have been told all offseason how terrible our team is going to be. Pundit after pundit has our beloved team taking a nasty tumble in the standings, saying that Carolina will land anywhere from 8-8 to as bad as 5-11. All this doomsday talk was understandable at first, but it has recently become a manic obsession for pretty much anyone in the media. And it has reached insulting levels. The media has begun to call out Carolina's management and even it's fanbase at times. Surely Ron Rivera has been “storing up these things in his heart” to paraphrase a great book I once read. Surely it has become bulletin board material to motivate the team to focus and come out of the gate swinging. Among the concerns for the media is the hits Carolina took on its roster from last year, namely the offensive line and the receiving corps. Through the preseason, Carolina's offensive line has played better than expected, though certainly not at an elite level. Still, elite isnt necessary at this point for another reason. That reason is that the receiving corps is shaping up to be much better than expected and much better than last year. Kelvin Benjamin looks more and more like a steal every day. Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant are sure-handed veterans that, once Newton gets his timing with them right, ought to provide adequate relief for Benjamin. Then there is the UFDA practice squad player who has become a bit of a sensation in Carolina: Brenton Bersin. The kid is making great plays, and making them against legitimate defenders. Depending on how high his ceiling is, he and Benjamin could perhaps be the faces of the Carolina receiving corps for the foreseeable future. Also, watch out for Philly Brown in the return game. He made a couple mistakes when given chances in preseason, but he also showed a ability to get good yardage on returns. Panthers fans know that our defense is going to be returning with the same great line and linebacker corps, and we also know that experience will have made them even better. There is reason to believe that the secondary will also get a boost in play from the talent infront of them. Granted, the secondary has struggled at times in the preseason. But so did last year's secondary. Yet, the Panthers won 12 games. There is much reason for hope in Carolina. But what about the host for the season opener?

     Tampa Bay didn't have as much of an eventful offseason as the Panthers did, but that doesn't mean there isn't reason for Tampa fans to have faith in their team. The main difference between the 2013 Buccaneers and their 2014 iteration is the coaching staff. Gone is a tyrant, and installed is Lovie Smith. Smith has put some outstanding defensive teams on the field during his tenure as an NFL coach. And at first glance, he has set up his Buccaneers to succeed right away. How much they succeed, however, wont be solely up to him. Regardless, there is always a measure of hope when a team makes a coaching change. And, Buccaneers fans are surely grateful that all the drama of last season is behind them. Unlike Panthers fans, Buccaneers fans have been told all offseason how much their beloved team will improve. Some sources have even had Tampa challenging for the division crown. While I don't believe Tampa is that good, they will be better. And they will be a tough team to beat. Tampa fans have every reason to show up in droves for their home opener, and have every reason to hope in their team. Lovie Smith is known for his defense, and he had plenty of pieces to work with when he came to Tampa. His pieces on offense arent bad either. Though, Smith also isnt known for his offenses. Smith is a defensive guy so his lack of offensive prowess is understandable. Rest assured, Tampa's defense will keep them in games. Lovie is also a leader, which tells me this team will be consistently competitive this season, unlike last year when the players were under the iron grip of the former head coach. However, like I said, Lovie Smith wont be directly responsible for Tampa's season. His defense needs to perform well, and perform consistently well, in order for this team to have any legitimate shot at a wild card. Also, quarterback play will be a huge make or break aspect of this team. Josh McCown flourished last year under Bears head coach Mark Trestman, but before that, McCown was never worthy of a starting position. It is entirely possible that McCown returns to his below average form this season, and what then for the Buccaneers? There is Mike Glennon, but Lovie Smith has probably damaged the 2^nd year quarterback's confidence after benching him for a career backup. Maybe Glennon gets the start, but if he does, it remains to be seen how much it will help. Team chemistry will also be key this season, especially in the opener against Carolina. The Panthers have an established identity. Strong defense, efficient offense, and a “just win baby” attitude is what Carolina has, and if Tampa is going to prevail against teams this season, it needs its own identity. This starts with the coaching staff and Smith. I believe this will happen for Tampa Bay, but it may be mid-season before its fruit begins to appear. I think it will be a major factor in the season opener for Carolina and Tampa, where Tampa will look disjointed and out of sync. Carolina may look that way at first too but, as Cam Newton proved in the preseason game against Kansas City, it will only take a series or two and this Carolina offense will begin to click.

     This game is being played in Tampa Bay at 4:25pm. The weather forecast is calling for 82 degree temperatures with 75% humidity, and also 45% cloud cover before and during the game with a 51% chance of precipitation. The Accuweather RealFeel (basically heat index) will be 93°F at gametime. The field at Raymond James Stadium is a set on a North-South orientation, so neither team will be playing into the setting sun. A few notes about the forecast. 75% humidity is almost on par with the average September humidity in Spartanburg, SC (which is 74.5%). 82°F is alittle below the average Spartanburg temperature in September (84°F). In other words, it will feel like a hot, but not abnormal, Carolina day in Tampa around gametime. People worried about the Panthers being at a disadvantage ought to rest easy with this information. Weather data was provided by Accuweather, where my wonderful Dad (Superadiabatic on the Huddle) works.

 

Prediction:

Carolina looks rusty like most teams will in Week 1, but the Panther defense has its way with the Buccaneer offense. The Panther offense pursues a balanced attack and wins the season opener away for the first time since 2008, when Jake Delhomme's last second touchdown to Dante Rosario won the game for the Panthers in San Diego. The final score will probably be closer than the actual game will be.

 

24-17

Panthers 1-0

 

*Trivia*: 2008 was Ron Rivera's first year as San Diego's defensive coordinator. However, Rivera was not the coordinator for the loss to Carolina. He took over as DC for San Diego mid-season after the Chargers canned Ted Cottrell.

 

Elsewhere in the NFL:

 

Packers @ Seahawks:           Seahawks

Bills @ Bears:                          Bears

Browns @ Steelers:               Steelers

Jaguars @ Eagles:                  Eagles

Patriots @ Dolphins:             Patriots

Saints @ Falcons:                   Saints

Colts @ Broncos:                    Broncos

Bengals @ Ravens:                Bengals

Redskins @ Texans:               Redskins

Titans @ Chiefs:                      Chiefs

Vikings @ Rams:                     Rams

Raiders @ Jets:                       Raiders

49ers @ Cowboys:                  49ers

Giants @ Lions:                       Lions

Chargers @ Cardinals:           Cardinals

 

The NFL After Week 1:

 

[JJman]

Tldr

[UpstatePanther]

Tldr

 

haha thats too bad. 

[mbarbour21]

It is also going to be interesting to see if Davis will somehow play BETTER this year with the brace removed! Very excited for our defense just thinking about that.

[JJman]

haha thats too bad.

Im joking, I'll read when I get off work.

[UpstatePanther]

updated the weather information. 

[UNCrules2187]

How would your analysis change if Anderson starts over Cam?

[shabazz]

Bucs fan here. That is a good preview.

 

Bucs O-line has issues no doubt, but you left a very important matchup that works in Bucs favor which is Bucs receivers vs Panthers' secondary. I know the game starts in the trenches and the WR advantage we have may not matter much if the O-line cannot block the whole game. But even with Glennon behind a horrible O-line last year we moved the ball well and just could not finish the deal (That embarrassing fumble Glennon had in the redzone /facepalm).

 

It was preseason yes, but after horrific starts against talented D-lines like that of Bills and Dolphins, the O-line bought enough time as the game went on and McCown settled in and delivered some TD scoring drives. Since then we have only upgraded by adding Mankins and a Chiefs backup G in Rishaw Johnson in favor of the two scrubs that were starting in those games. McCown is a game manager, but an elusive QB himself. I expect him to play like Jeff Garcia did for us in 07-08 not turn the ball over. I also expect our defense to be a well rounded group and finish in top 10. I predict this game to be a defensive battle with final scores like 13-10 favoring Panthers if Newton plays. 

[UpstatePanther]

How would your analysis change if Anderson starts over Cam?

 

i actually think its the same recipe for success for the Panthers, no matter which QB starts. i didnt expect the Panthers to let Newton run that much anyway. the only thing that might change is if Anderson starts, he will be more able to lob the long passes. but those ought to just be a compliment to the methodical offense anyway. a way to keep things unpredictable, so to speak

[UpstatePanther]

Bucs fan here. That is a good preview.

 

Bucs O-line has issues no doubt, but you left a very important matchup that works in Bucs favor which is Bucs receivers vs Panthers' secondary. I know the game starts in the trenches and the WR advantage we have may not matter much if the O-line cannot block the whole game. But even with Glennon behind a horrible O-line last year we moved the ball well and just could not finish the deal (That embarrassing fumble Glennon had in the redzone /facepalm).

 

It was preseason yes, but after horrific starts against talented D-lines like that of Bills and Dolphins, the O-line bought enough time as the game went on and McCown settled in and delivered some TD scoring drives. Since then we have only upgraded by adding Mankins and a Chiefs backup G in Rishaw Johnson in favor of the two scrubs that were starting in those games. McCown is a game manager, but an elusive QB himself. I expect him to play like Jeff Garcia did for us in 07-08 not turn the ball over. I also expect our defense to be a well rounded group and finish in top 10. I predict this game to be a defensive battle with final scores like 13-10 favoring Panthers if Newton plays. 

 

i actually did mention the Panthers secondary and the Bucs receivers. you guys have big, tall guys like we do. and the secondary is (as it was last year) the Panthers weakness on defense. if the Panthers DL cant get pressure on McCown, its going to be a long, LOOOOONG day for the Panthers secondary. thanks for the read man