538 Sports NFC South Preview: Saints/Panthers Co-Favorites

[UNCrules2187]

Both teams have the same playoff and division probabilities (42% and 30% respectively), with the Saints having the slightest of edges in expected wins (8.9 vs 8.5 for Carolina):

 

Also, just another note about how the WR turnover is much ado about nothing:

 

But the receivers who left weren’t that great, either. Newton wasn’t particularly efficient (on a per-play basis) a year ago, even with his old teammates in the lineup. After a solid 2012 season in which he ranked 15th among qualified quarterbacks in combined passing and rushing DVOA, the former Auburn standout fell to 20th in 2013.

 

Newton may have set career highs in wins as a starter (12), passing touchdowns (24) and completion percentage (61.7 percent), but the underlying advanced metrics weren’t kind. Newton directed 53 percent of his pass attempts to the now-departed Ginn, Smith and LaFell in 2013, and on those plays he averaged an unimpressive passing DVOA of -3.5 percent last year (slightly ahead of the Tennessee Titans’ blah QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick). When targeting tight end Greg Olsen, though, that number rose to +3.8 percent (more like a cross between Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer — quite a difference). Olsen is back for 2014, and it’s not hard to envision Cotchery, Avant and the rookie first-rounder Benjamin combining to cover the DVOA necessary to break even on Carolina’s receiving-corps overhaul.

 

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nfl-preview-can-cam-newton-overtake-rob-ryan/#ss-5

[heelinfine]

Both teams have the same playoff and division probabilities (42% and 30% respectively), with the Saints having the slightest of edges in expected wins (8.9 vs 8.5 for Carolina):

Also, just another note about how the WR turnover is much ado about nothing:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nfl-preview-can-cam-newton-overtake-rob-ryan/#ss-5

The best critique of the Panthers WR situation I've read, outside the Huddle.

[PhillyB]

if they say we're going to be great this year i'll accept them. if they say we won't they are clearly wrong and i hate them and pray fire and curses upon their firstborne.

[RoaringRiot]

Logic? Who has time to apply logic? 

[UNCrules2187]

if they say we're going to be great this year i'll accept them. if they say we won't they are clearly wrong and i hate them and pray fire and curses upon their firstborne.

 

I prefer debating about the predictions that are rooted in some sort of statistical analysis though (Football Outsiders, Advanced Football Analytics, 538, etc). All those guys have us pegged to win around 8-9 games rather than being a poo sandwich team like that dumb poo Prisco thinks.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

I prefer debating about the predictions that are rooted in some sort of statistical analysis though (Football Outsiders, Advanced Football Analytics, 538, etc). All those guys have us pegged to win around 8-9 games rather than being a poo sandwich team like that dumb poo Prisco thinks.

Extremely valid point. At least he makes a point and backs it up with something other than " they lost all of the WRs so they will suck" logic.

[2jakefansinva]

Rivera has said this continuously .....................although he used # of catches we had to replace per game.