So I modeled the season (and you aren't going to like it)

[Panthro]

Perhaps look at home records over the llast 3 years and weight it based on where they line up

[CarolinaNCSU]

Yeah, stopped looking seriously when Buffalo won the AFC East

[PandaPancake]

Good try but if math was easy everyone would do it.

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[Happy Panther]

Did you have anything for home vs away. Perhaps 3 points to the home team. I dunno. Vegas does

 

Good question.

 

I do not yet as the addition of that does not add much to the model at this point. I assumed that leaving the home field advantage at 0 would even out over the season which is OK since I am trying to predict overall record not individual games.

 

What i did do is compare my lines with what vegas is predicting week 1 and they are largely reasonable yet with 2 or 3 absurd differences.

 

For example I have Panthers -4 and Vegas has -2.5

I have New England -3 and Vegas has -3.5

 

On the other hand

 

I have Phi -6 over JAC while Vegas has -11

and Ind+1 vs Denver while Vegas has Ind +7

 

I like my PHI line but not the Denver line although I would definitely take IND+7 as a betting man

[Udogg]

Hey if last year I told you guys Houston would go from 12 wins to 2 wins, Redskins would go from 10 wins to 3 wins, the Chiefs would go from 2 wins to 11, and the Falcons would go from 13 to 4 wins you would have laughed as well.

 

The point is you didn't tell us last year.  So as of right now, you are pulling stuff out of your a## and we are laughing at you.

[Happy Panther]

The point is you didn't tell us last year.  So as of right now, you are pulling stuff out of your a## and we are laughing at you.

That is not the point at all.

[BuffaloBills62]

I'm in a contest where you pick every game for the whole NFL season. Instead of trying to slog through 256 games I built a stochastic simulation model that chooses a victor for each and every game during the season. My assumptions are below but the results are as follows:

 

(Remember computers have no feelings)

 

 

Highlights and lowlights from the Panthers: Some amazing familiarity here

 

1) We lose our opener 19-16 in overtime at Tampa

2) Lose to Detroit and Pittsburgh by 7 points total

3) Blowout Baltimore 43-18 to start 1-3

4) Lose by 1 to Chicago

5) Blown Out by Cincinnati with the first defensive hiccup giving up 35 points

6) Lose by 6 to Green Bay, 2 to Seattle and 3 to New Orleans. Now 1-8

7) Blowout Philly 35 -21

8) Lose to Atlanta 21-20... 2-9 on the season 

9) Much needed by week

10 And then a 5-0 to end the season missing the playoffs by 2 games. We average 32 points per game after the bye beating MINN, NO, TB, CLE, and ATL

 

love it, cannot disagree in the slightest, in fact, i think you know football better then anyone else.  like ever.

 

you're a genius.  love it, i cannot disagree with it at all.

[ncmonzta]

,

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[Happy Panther]

love it, cannot disagree in the slightest, in fact, i think you know football better then anyone else.  like ever.

 

you're a genius.  love it, i cannot disagree with it at all.

My model seems to love Buffalo and Cleveland so far.

[PandaPancake]

Can we see these calculations or did I miss them?

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[NanuqoftheNorth]

Happy Panther is right...

I don't like it!

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Happy Panther is right...

I don't like it!

BTW: Panthers will go 12-4 for their first back-to-back winning seasons.

[Happy Panther]

Can we see these calculations or did I miss them?

Sent from my XT1080 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

It's a very messy and complex spreadsheet but I can post if if you really want to play with it.

[JJman]

Lol at the records of Oakland, San Fran, Cleveland, Buffalo and Chicago. Plus ours.

Sorry bud but this is awful