So I modeled the season (and you aren't going to like it)

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Trying to predict a football matchup is an exercise in futility. Many factors go into a game that people fail to take into account when coming up with these idiotic predictions such as the weather, injurys, who's sick and hiding it, the want to win the game. Believe it or not some nfl players only care about the paycheck and not the scoreboard. Does your stupid simulation take that into account? I will never understand why people take the time to actually try to predict the future its fuging baffling to me.

 

Given enough predictor variables anything can be determined.  If a statistical model can find a way to quantify these things and help account for variability, you can make reliable predictions.

 

Imagine how accurate predictions can get once we have those motion trackers placed in shoulder pads! 

[IGSaint]

If predicting wins was so easy people who do it professionally would be mega rich. 

[Happy Panther]

Trying to predict a football matchup is an exercise in futility. Many factors go into a game that people fail to take into account when coming up with these idiotic predictions such as the weather, injurys, who's sick and hiding it, the want to win the game. Believe it or not some nfl players only care about the paycheck and not the scoreboard. Does your stupid simulation take that into account? I will never understand why people take the time to actually try to predict the future its fuging baffling to me.

Exactly which is why a randomized model is just as good as trying to predict each and every game with stats. I maintain that I can do just as well as Peter king by flipping a glorified intelligent coin 10,000 times as he can which is why I built this.

[The Huddler]

Wow 7-9?

[Happy Panther]

Here this will make you feel better

 

 

[R0CKnR0LLA]

Buffalo at 11-5 = OK time to dump this algorithm and start again from scratch

[Happy Panther]

Buffalo at 11-5 = OK time to dump this algorithm and start again from scratch

I'll ask you this.

 

Every year a surprising number of teams completely blow everyone away by overachieving or underachieving by a huge margin and nobody predicts it. (almost as if it were a random process). As already posted ATL, KC, HOU, CAR, WAS, PHI, MIN, ARI all move by at least 5 games from the previous season and two teams moved by 10 and 9 games.

 

Yet when a model predicts a random team moving why is that unbelievable? I got money that says you will look back on the 2014 dumbfounded at several teams and how they performed.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

yeah but not buffalo

[Frizzy350]

Theres a reason the games are played.  This could prove to be a perfect prediction, it could also be abhorrently inaccurate.

 

His method of predicting the NFL season is no more accurate a prediction than the media's or our own.  It holds as much weight as any expert's analysis.

[Khaki Lackey]

Hey if last year I told you guys Houston would go from 12 wins to 2 wins, Redskins would go from 10 wins to 3 wins, the Chiefs would go from 2 wins to 11, and the Falcons would go from 13 to 4 wins you would have laughed as well.

So did your model predict all of these things?

Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

[Happy Panther]

So did your model predict all of these things?

Didn't build a model last year. But my model this year will predict that a certain number of teams will change their record by more than 5 games. Was 4 but I am changing it to 5 based on eyeballing the last few seasons. The actual teams that do this is beyond most any model capability, especially one built in an afternoon.

 

I am tempted to put a filter on Cleveland but hesitant to do so.

 

And the model is predicting one or two teams to have huge moves pretty consistently which is consistent with history so I am happy with that aspect so far.

[Awesomeness!!]

The only team in Cleveland that is winning more than 4 games are the Cavs.

[Panthro]

Did you have anything for home vs away. Perhaps 3 points to the home team. I dunno. Vegas does

[Panthro]

BTw

I love this