Statistical Analysis of 7 Young QBs

[Ricky Spanish]

So this past week, I thought to myself, "Self, you handsome devil, who is the best young QB in the NFL? The pundits beat off to Andrew Luck but I just don't see it. It's like they have a preconceived notion of who is better and who isn't, instead of looking at the evidence to the contrary. I wish someone would do a blind analysis of these young guys and figure out who is statistically speaking, the best of the young crop of QBs out there."

 

After some extensive googling for a solid 2 minutes, I found nothing to aid me in my search, so in my spare time this past week, I decided to do a little spreadsheet of my own to see who is the best of these young guys. I took every game that each of these 7 players started, and I put them in a spreadsheet. Then I used the magic of science to make the numbers do stuff, and came out with an unbiased analysis of all the young QBs. Some things of note:

 

• I used the first two years as starters for each player. That means I ignored this most recent season from the likes of Andy Dalton and Cam Newton, but used Kaepernick's. I figured this would be the most fair thing to do, meaning it put the stats on the most even level across all the QBs from an experience perspective.
• All QBs are labeled A-G, their names can be found at the end of the analysis. I figured that gave people looking over everything a better chance to take off their homer glasses and look at the numbers themselves.
• I counted any time the QB dropped the ball as a fumble, even if the other team didn't scoop it up. It's a negative play, you shouldn't put the ball on the ground, regardless of who ends up with it. Ball security is important.
• Since this most recent batch of QBs lean towards the "Dual-threat" spectrum of play, I broke their stats down into subsections: Passing Rushing, Combined, and Turnovers. By using the Rushing and Combined stats, it rewards them for EVERYTHING they do, not just from a passing perspective. By breaking it down in such a way, I was also able to not punish those who aren't as physically blessed who play the same position.
• I didn't use total yardage as a measurement in either Passing or Rushing. That doesn't really mean much if you throw the ball 50 times or run the ball 50 times in a game. Instead, I chose to focus on how efficient the players were in these regards by ranking them through their Yards per game and yards per attempt. I believe this is a better indicator of how efficient the player is when they execute.
• In the same regard, I included an average of Passes per game and rushes per game because that does indicate how much the team relies on their young signal caller, and like it or not, that actually does mean something - They trust their young QB.

So, here is what I ended up with:

 

 

Damn that's a sexy chart. Now at first glance, I'm sure many of you can figure out which one is our favorite QB, but stay with me and try and keep an open mind here as I explore the good, the bad, and the ugly of each category.

 

 

Here we have pass attempts per game. This shows that player C is the most relied on in this department, by a decent amount. He is being called to throw the ball about 37 times per game, more than 12 times more than Player A at the top of the chart, and the bottom of the ranking. They must really trust player C with that offense.

 

 

Here's where things get interesting. Player C is still #1 in this category as well, obviously you throw the ball a lot, you should get a lot of yards each game. But, Player G drops from 2nd to 4th and Player E jumps from 4th to 2nd. Players B and D also switch rankings. It looks like players D and E are more efficient in their throws than B and G.

 

 

What the hell player A? I was just talking about how efficient E and D were and then you swoop in like a dick and ruin that with your ridiculous Yards per pass attempt number. E slides to #2 in this area, and Player C drops from number 1 to number 5. Doesn't seem so efficient with the ball, even though he's throwing it the most. Also let it be noted that player F jumped up to #2 in this aspect, meaning he doesn't throw often either, but when he does, he's pretty decent at it.

 

 

Player A is just showing off now. While he isn't relied on heavily in their offense, he sure as hell produces when given the opportunity. He has 6 more TD's than the next closest guy.

 

 

How generally mediocre... aside from A, B, and D, no one has over a 60% completion. These numbers should only improve over time for all of these guys, they are all very young of course. What is interesting here is that Player C, the guy most relied on to throw the ball, doesn't seem to throw it as accurately as you would expect.

 

 

The last area of the passing metric, The QBR. Player A, once again, seems to be killing it in the throwing department. Look at that rating... It's a thing of beauty, and this is only after 2 years! Players F and D also have a high QBR, those numbers are nothing to scoff at, while it looks like G and C have the QBR of what you would expect out of a 2 year pro. They'll get better though, I'm sure of it.

 

 

This is how the players shake out in the passing Rankings. Player A seems to be the most efficient when given the ball, and seems to be the best passing QB of the bunch. D is up next just barely squeaking by C and E. At the bottom, we have player G.

 

Up next is the rushing metric.

[Ricky Spanish]

Like I said earlier, these young guys are some dual threat beasts, and because of that, they should have their rushing stats considered when we look at their overall worth. alright, let's go:

 

 

Welp, we can clearly see who is, and isn't a running threat. B and G seem to be more pocket passers, where as E and D take off close to 8 times a game.

 

 

And of course, E and D are at the top of this stat as well, although they have switched places, showing that D seems to be a more efficient runner than E, and F and A aren't too shabby themselves.

 

 

Damn F, you are an efficient motherfugger at running the ball. Jumping up from 4th in attempts to 1st in YPC. Good for you. D isn't too far behind him though, and E and A are 2 solid runners as well. Hell, everyone but B looks like they would be an efficient runner. These guys certainly seem to be athletic. The league is going to be exciting over the next 10 years.

 

 

Jesus Christ. E is a touchdown machine. this is the biggest gap in every statistical category I reviewed. He finds the end zone with his legs only one less time than the next 3 guys combined. C comes in second with 9, which is damn good for 2 years for any QB... just not.. you know... 22 times.

 

 

Player E seems to be the best pure running QB of the 7 we have here, and D is followed close behind him. Ironically enough, they were 2 and 3 in the passing portion of these metrics, meaning they truly are Dual threats. A drops down to 5th and once again, C finds himself dead center between all the other QBs.

 

That concludes the Rushing area, on towards the combined metric.

[Ricky Spanish]

This is the area in which I gathered the passing, and the rushing data, combined the two to see what kind of a hybrid beast these players are:

 

 

C remains at the top of this list, and A remains at the bottom. E jumps from 4th in passing alone to 2nd in total plays per game. This shows that the teams that C and E play for trust them with the ball more than any other young QB. D is not too far behind at 3 and G is in with a respectable 36 offensive plays per game.

 

 

Player E has the most combined TDs, 22 Rushing TDs will do that for you. Next up is Player A with 57, third is player C with 55, and at the bottom, we have player F who doesn't seem to find the endzone that often. It is obvious the scores run through A, C, and E in for their respective teams.

 

 

Player E hops to the top, of this list with a combined total yardage of 292.7 offensive yards per game. Over the span of the season, that equates to roughly 4,683 yards of total offense from one dude alone. C and D come in with 17 fewer yards per game, but are neck and neck in this regard. They combine to about 4,400 total yards of offense in a season. These guys are all work horses.

 

 

And to round out this section, Player A comes back and shows everyone just how damn efficient he is when his team actually gives him the ball. If I were this guy's coach, I would let him off the leash and just go off on everyone. He seems to take advantage of everything he is given.

 

Can't really do a summary of these stats, they don't really mesh well or average out to anything comprehensive. They were just some bonus stats I wanted to throw in to add some more rankings among the QBs in order to see how they rank as an overall "dual threat"

 

Up next, Turnovers

[Ricky Spanish]

Shokay, here's where things get messy... This is the bad side of the QBs. This is where we measure how often and how badly they all fug up. 

 

 

Right off the bat, we see that player F has the least amount of INTs, and G has the most. Not really much detail is needed.

 

 

Like I said earlier, I counted every ball that hit the ground as a fumble. And it looks like Player D, while taking care of his passes extremely well, has a case of the butterfingers when it is still in his hands. He is far and away the worst at ball security while it is still on his person. Strangely enough, B, who was tied for 5th in interceptions, loses the ball about half as many times as everyone else. Great Ball security from this guy. Props to him. 

 

 

Once again, Player F shows that he has lost the ball fewer than everyone else. Player A seems to hold onto the ball well too. Again, self explanatory. 

 

 

Alright, I lumped these two together for a reason, I saw something interesting. While C has the 4th highest TO/game, he is still statistically less likely to turn the ball over than anyone else. This is because, if you remember, he runs more offensive plays than anyone else. I would also like to point out that C and E are tied at 4 in the TO/G field; I miss numbered them and don't feel like fixing it. A and E are NOT tied in the TO rate category, rounding up will make numbers look even. 

 

Also, take a look at A. He doesn't seem to turn the ball over that often, and that is true, however it is true because his team limits his touches. While he can be quite efficient when they DO give a shot, he also turns the ball over at a higher percent of plays. That might be why he is limited, they don't want him to hurt the team. 

 

 

This is just a chart to show the overall rankings in the TO department. Player F is the best with ball security, followed by A and B a little ways behind him. 

 

Up next I have a quick run down on player efficiency and then we hit the big reveal. 

[Ricky Spanish]

These were the areas in which efficiency is determined. It is a bunch of averages and percentages, and it gives you a good idea of who is best suited to do what is asked of them, whether it be throw, run, or both. 

 

 

To my surprise, Player F seems to be, on average, the most efficient QB of the bunch, followed closely by player E, then A and D are tied. If you want the most consistent yardage with the lowest risk of Turnover, F is your guy. The opposite can be said for player G.

 

Here is the final rankings chart with a breakdown of rankings for every category from the first chart I posted:

 

 

So what is the average rank of each of the players over every one of those categories?

 

 

We have:

 

G at 7

B at 6

F at 5

C at 4

D at 3

A at 2

E at 1

 

So who are these mystery men?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And there you have it. 

 

Tannehill is a great example of what having no help for an inexperienced QB under center can do for you... which is not much. He honestly hasn't played horribly, he just has been playing like a young inexperienced QB. I have decent expectations for the kid. I honestly see him as the next Cutler. More of a potential guy with a 'what if' backstory.

 

Dalton is next. turnovers and inefficiency killed his rankings. While he puts up decent numbers, he doesn't do it often enough to warrant enough consideration as a Top young QB.His numbers jump up a bit if you include his 3rd year, but that year, too, was plagued by inconsistent play.

 

Kaepernick's ranking seems like it has more to do with the lack of games played than anything. Having said that, he ranks pretty solid and consistently across the board, something I didn't expect out of him. Will he improve? I'm not sure, but he certainly needs to prove he can sustain the success he has had thus far.

 

Luck. The golden boy. He was the most Mediocre (I use that term in a sense of where he was consistently ranked) of all the young QB's. He did some stuff well, some stuff very well, but just as many things as equally awful. It is obvious the colts have set their team up to go where he goes, due in large part to their heavy reliance on him in all aspects of their offense. The dude just isn't that efficient, I have no idea where the pundits get their boners from. Is he a solid prospect? of course. Is he the second coming of Manning and an elite QB in all the league right now? Hell no. 

 

Griffin is about where I expected him to be. Truth be told, I expected a toss-up between him Wilson and Newton for the top 3 spots. He is a solid QB guys, and he is a very important part of the Redskins offense. If the guy can stay healthy, he has a shot at being a great one. The hate towards Bobby G from this fanbase seems to be rooted in jealousy from the attention he receives over Cam. Stop hating guys, the guy is good. 

 

Can I just lead off talking about Wilson by saying what a nice and genuine guy he seems like? I mean the dude is so nice to everyone, and he deserves more credit than he gets on the field too. When people say the offense doesn't run through him, they have a valid argument. He was one of the least utilized weapons on this list of young QBs. What sets him apart from the others, is the execution when he has the opportunity. I would expect him to be one of the greats over the next few years if they open up the playbook and let him run things. Kid has a bright future. Can he sustain the success he's had with an expanded role? I believe so, but we have to wait and see. 

 

And last we have everyone's favorite Pouty, Thug, bad teammate QB... Cam Newton. Honestly, I didn't expect him to average out this high. While he wasn't rated #1 in most categories, he was rated #2 in the most categories and never ranked dead last in anything. While he isn't the best at everything, he is certainly up there in plenty of them, and that is good enough to show that he is on higher ground in both facets of the game, Passing AND running. The only thing he really needs to improve on is ball security... oh wait, he totally did that this past year didn't he? I didn't use his most recent season's stats because I wanted everyone to use their first two years as a starter. If I were to include his most recent season, his efficiency rankings would jump up and he would be significantly ahead of everyone else. We have a special guy in Cam, and I'm damn happy about it.

 

Hope you all enjoyed it. It really didn't take too long to do, writing this crap was the most time consuming thing. I know it's not perfect, I'm sure I made a few typos and I know I didn't use weighted averages, but this is a rough idea of where the young QBs rank against each other. Please talk amongst yourselves. 

[Ricky Spanish]

And I only did this because there is nothing new being posted on here and the only thing people are talking about are Johnny Football and how Luck doesn't deserve the love. 

[t96]

While stats are just that and this means very little, I'll give you all that pie because this must've taken like 12 hours... 

[h0llywood]

EPIC! Save this in the thread hall of fame. As a matter of fact, tweet these stats to the fanboys at the NFL network. This will make them cry

[LinvilleGorge]

EPIC! Save this in the thread hall of fame. As a matter of fact, tweet these stats to the fanboys at the NFL network. This will make them cry

They all hyped him as the next big thing. Goddamn it, he's gonna be the next big thing. He's a damn good QB but he's not head and shoulders better than the rest of the young guns like they try to pretend he is. I wouldn't trade Cam for him. But, I would take him over every other young QB other than Cam in the league.

[PandaPancake]

You call yourself, 'self'? I refer to myself as Panda.

I only replied so I'll remember to look at it later.

Sent from my XT1080 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[SuperLego5]

This is pretty much as comprehensive a viewing of the young QB's with no bias behind it that I have seen. If only people were paid to do things like this...

[updownsigma]

YEAH BUT LUCK MAKES NFL LEVEL READS INSTEAD OF THE DUMBED DOWN SPREAD READ OPTION THE MORE "ATHLETIC" (LOL YOU KNOW WHAT I REALLY MEAN) QBS PLAY WITH AND HE'S ALSO GRITTY AND HAS COME FROM BEHIND WINS AND ALSO HE WENT TO STANFORD TOO, BECAUSE HE WANTED TO FINISH HIS ARCHITECTURE DEGREE BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT QBS "WITH INTANGIBLES" (LOL AGAIN, YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN) DO

-Peter King's reaction if he saw these stats

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[updownsigma]

But really, well done. I love stat breakdowns like this and had played around with Newtons vs. others stats in excel before but never in this much detail. This is awesome though

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[Stroupe-a-loop]

That's really nice to see and great work by you.