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Panthers floor/ceiling record for 2014?

hepcat

By hepcat,
in Carolina Panthers

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

Posted
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Barring any key injuries, I think the floor for the Panthers is 7-9.  We'd probably see something similar to 2012 in that they'd get the short end of the stick in some close games and generally not get the luck they did in 2013.  I predict the NFC South to be the second best division in the NFL behind the NFC West and that could cost the Panthers a couple wins on sheer improvement of the divisional opponents alone.  Defenses might have an easy time getting to Cam Newton with an inexperienced offensive line and all new receiving corp, but the defense is too good to fall below this. As long as the defense is close to as good as 2013 and Cam Newton is under center, at the very worst they will finish around .500.  

 

Ceiling is 12-4.  I don't think the Panthers can improve on their record from 2013 given some key areas of roster deficiency but they could match it if everything bounces their way again.  This would require the receivers overachieving and the offensive line gelling quickly.   They've got some young players slated to start on the offensive line and that is a major question mark.  The Panthers play ball-control offense and you need a good offensive line to do that.  O-Line needs to step up quick and Riverboat Ron needs to show that his magic from 2013 wasn't a fluke.  

 

 

tl;dr - Floor = 7-9.  Ceiling = 12-4.  What do you think?

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t96 Grand Master

t96

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Ceiling is at least 14-2... Not sure how you can basically say it's "impossible" we go over 12-4. It's 100% possible for us to go above 12-4 with Riverboat, Cam, Luke, our D-line, and especially if all of our unproven/untested guys at WR, secondary, OT all outperform their expectations we could definitely go above 12-4, maybe even as high as 14-2, 15-1...

 

Our floor is no lower than 6-10, though more likely probably 8-8 or 9-7 I think. Only way we possibly go under 6-10 would be if Cam gets injured for the season. I'm guessing most likely somewhere between 10-6 and 12-4, but we could go above or below those.

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CarolinaNCSU Proficient

CarolinaNCSU

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I also think people forget how "lucky" we were in close games last year. Yes, skill and simply being better than the competition comes into play, but so does luck. I'd expect that record to slide closer to the median this year. 

 

Games decided by a TD or less last year, which we were 5-2 in...

 

SEA, Buffalo (Both losses, but highly winnable except for our own miscues). Also pre-Riverboat.

 

San Fran (Fumble at the end we luckily fell on), New England (Potential PI depending on the refs), Miami (Dolphins ineptitude helped that dreadful grind-out victory), New Orleans (rain game...thank you D Hixon), ATL. 

 

 

In no way am I discrediting us winning these games last year, but simply saying I don't expect another magical run of finishing the season 11-1 while having a few 4th quarter or last minute comebacks to help us out. Our team is built to play close games...but the law of averages will come into play and make that 5-2 record (which easily could've been 7-0 if not for a Pass Int. against Buffalo and a DWill fumble) and make it closer to 4-3 or 3-4. 

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panthers55 Grand Master

panthers55

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I also think people forget how "lucky" we were in close games last year. Yes, skill and simply being better than the competition comes into play, but so does luck. I'd expect that record to slide closer to the median this year. 

 

Games decided by a TD or less last year, which we were 5-2 in...

 

SEA, Buffalo (Both losses, but highly winnable except for our own miscues). Also pre-Riverboat.

 

San Fran (Fumble at the end we luckily fell on), New England (Potential PI depending on the refs), Miami (Dolphins ineptitude helped that dreadful grind-out victory), New Orleans (rain game...thank you D Hixon), ATL. 

 

 

In no way am I discrediting us winning these games last year, but simply saying I don't expect another magical run of finishing the season 11-1 while having a few 4th quarter or last minute comebacks to help us out. Our team is built to play close games...but the law of averages will come into play and make that 5-2 record (which easily could've been 7-0 if not for a Pass Int. against Buffalo and a DWill fumble) and make it closer to 4-3 or 3-4. 

I don't think we were anymore lucky last year than we were unlucky the two years before that.  You can call it luck but I call it the skill and desire to make the half dozen plays that make the difference between winning and losing each week. Our boys and Cam specifically made the plays he couldn't make the prior 2 years.

 

Lucky is when the opponent moves down the field with no time on the clock and has a 15 yard field goal to win and completely botches it and we win.  Not making a drive in the last 5 minutes to go ahead and then make a defensive stop to stop them with no time left. I can think that two games where we were unlucky but not anyone where we were lucky to win so I can see the 7-0 but not the 3-4.  

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CarolinaNCSU Proficient

CarolinaNCSU

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 I can think that two games where we were unlucky but not anyone where we were lucky to win so I can see the 7-0 but not the 3-4.  

 

The 3-4 or 4-3 record talk were just arbitrary numbers based on close games in 2013. Then dealing with next year (2014 season), when our record in close games should come back towards the median. Law of averages and such would set us up for a decline in close games unless Riverboat keeps being untouchable in them.

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