Ron Rivera on the hot seat? **SMH/LOL**

[panthers55]

I'll credit Shula with Cam's development as a QB, and honestly think he's a good position coach. But scoring on the last possession to win?  Well 1) he's not calling plays when the team is running a hurry up offense and 2) with a good offense the team wouldn't be in that position anyway.  If your argument is he helped develop Cam - well, that doesn't really prove why he should be an OC instead of a position coach.  And the fact that Cam has said he likes Shula?  Cam likes everyone...have you ever heard him not be positive about another member of the organization?

 

As for the stats

 

2011

 

Yards - 6237, 7th

Points/game - 25.4, 5th

Yards per play - 6.2, 4th (Yes, I know you think these first 3 don't "count" towards showing how good the offense was, but w/e)

Points per drive - 2.21, 6th

Average drive time - 2:42, 7th (the one Shula supporters always tout as why his offense is "good.")

Turnovers - 23, 14th

Offensive expected points - 131.27

Passing attempts - 519, 23rd

Sacks - 35, 15th

 

2012

 

Yards - 5771, 12th

Points/game - 22.3, 19th

Yards per play - 5.8, 9th

Points per drive - 1.91, 11th

Average drive time - 2:44, 9th

Turnovers - 22, 11th

Offense expected points - 103.92

Passing attempts - 490, 26th

Sacks - 35, 15th

 

2013

 

Yards - 5069, 26th

Points/game - 22.9, 18th

Yards per play - 5.1, 21st

Points per drive - 1.99, 10th

Time of Possession - 3:00, 2nd

Turnovers - 19, 4th

Offense expected points - can't find, oops.

Passing attempts - 473, 30th

Sacks -  43, 17th 

 

The point is, the evidence Shula supporters always use are either were actually better on average under Chud (points/drive) or only marginally better under Shula (time of possession, turnovers).  Not to mention, Shula has gotten to work with a more experienced Cam in his 3rd year (which can also partially explain the decrease in turnovers).  The trade off under Shula though, is a much less explosive offense that can't bring the team back if from down multiple scores.  Once another team gets up 2 possessions on the Panthers (which is definitely hard to do, but still...) the game is essentially over.  See e.g., the game at New Orleans, the 9ers playoff game.

 

Admittedly, 2012 was a down year for the offense.  So would another year of Chud have been more like 2011 or 2012?  We'll never know, but average 2011-12, and the offense was definitely better than Shula's.  One of the very stats you cite as reflective of efficiency - points per drive - was, on average, better under Chud than Shula (2.06 vs. 1.99).  As for points per yard, I can't find that listed anywhere.  I suppose you could calculate it yourself and it would come out as better under Shula because of the lack of offensive yardage, but again I've never seen that stat used anywhere.  In my opinion, that's handpicking a stat that makes Shula look better because of the lack of yards under Shula, similar to how using yards/completion is handpicking a stat to make Chud look better.

 

People act like Chud was some mad scientist who threw the ball 5,000,000/game so the defense got zero rest.  He wasn't.  As the stats indicate, we were near the bottom of the league in passing attempts both years under Chud.  Its just when we did pass then, we actually did something with it other than dinking and dunking our way down the field by calling a fake WR screen/draw play at least once per game and always on second and long.  And finally, despite the fact that we threw the ball the fewest number of times this past year, Cam took a career high number of sacks.  Of course, there were problems with the line in 2013, but there were OL injuries as well in 2012.

Like I figured most of your stats are not efficiency stats they are quantity stats which are not a measure of consistency or efficiency.  You did mention 2 of them which was points per drive which averaged between 1.99 and 2.21.  Chud's second year was 1.91 and Shula's first year was 1.99 so again Shula was more efficient. (I don't give Chud as much credit his first year because none of the defenses had any tape on Cam or our offense so the second year and third year are better comparisons. Plus we played from behind so often in 2011 we were not efficient but we were pretty exciting.) Time of possession is somewhat of an efficiency stat and again Shula offense was better.  

 

Another efficiency stat is points per drive.  We averaged 2.02 points per drive in 2013 and we averaged 1.96 in 2012.  Some folks think yards per drive is efficiency but if it ends with no points or in a turnover it is hardly being efficient.  So points seem more apropos.

 

How about the number of drives which end in a turnover.  In 2013 if was 9.4%.  In 2012 it was 10.3%.

 

Or drives which end up with a score.  In 2013 it was 35.5% and in 2012 it was 32.6%

 

 

So I can't see where any of the stats support that chud's offense in 2012 was more efficient. And again you don't average 2 years of Chud versus 1 year of Shula and say 2012 was a down year.  Who knows if 2013 will be a down year for Shula.  You look at year 2 and year 3 because on both of those years teams had tape on Cam and the offense and were prepared for what we would do.  And I think points per yard is a much better stat than total yards or yards per drive because efficiency is a function of how productive you are in manufacturing points which is what wins games not yards. And as you noted Shula's offense and special teams were much better in 2013 versus 2012.  For those interested we scored a point every 16.1 yards in 2012 and we scored a point every 13.8 yards in 2013.  If you haven't seen that stat elsewhere, now you have.

 

Thank you for the stats.  Even though your conclusions were faulty and our 2013 offense by almost any measure was better than in 2012, at least you are willing to look at numbers and stats instead of hiding behind the old saw that you know what you saw.

[dunnlx]

I wanted Ron Rivera fired last year because I was tired of always losing the close games. Glad we got rid of him. Riverboat Ron runs the show like a boss now.

This right here

[L-TownCat]

Yeah, I was like "Seriously"? :unsure:

 

I tried to find info on "Buck Stanton's" qualifications as an NFL writer.  Couldn't find anything, anywhere, not even on the site itself.  i can't even prove this guy exists.

 

So I took a look at the names of the other authors on site.  Didn't see a single name that rung a bell.

 

The site apparently gets their images from USA Today.  That's pretty much the extent of what I learned from a cursory search.

 

Unless someone else knows more about it, I'd put in the "guy with a website" category.

 

 

I dont know if you've read the left behind series?  I have.  Anyways one of the main characters' name is Buck Williams he is a news reporter. His boss' name is Stanton Bailey.  I think we have a biblical conspiracy theory here, out to destroy RR and the Panthers.

 

Lol seriously though, he sounds made up.

[updownsigma]

Like I figured most of your stats are not efficiency stats they are quantity stats which are not a measure of consistency or efficiency.  You did mention 2 of them which was points per drive which averaged between 1.99 and 2.21.  Chud's second year was 1.91 and Shula's first year was 1.99 so again Shula was more efficient. (I don't give Chud as much credit his first year because none of the defenses had any tape on Cam or our offense so the second year and third year are better comparisons. Plus we played from behind so often in 2011 we were not efficient but we were pretty exciting.) Time of possession is somewhat of an efficiency stat and again Shula offense was better.  

 

Another efficiency stat is points per drive.  We averaged 2.02 points per drive in 2013 and we averaged 1.96 in 2012.  Some folks think yards per drive is efficiency but if it ends with no points or in a turnover it is hardly being efficient.  So points seem more apropos.

 

How about the number of drives which end in a turnover.  In 2013 if was 9.4%.  In 2012 it was 10.3%.

 

Or drives which end up with a score.  In 2013 it was 35.5% and in 2012 it was 32.6%

 

 

So I can't see where any of the stats support that chud's offense in 2012 was more efficient. And again you don't average 2 years of Chud versus 1 year of Shula and say 2012 was a down year.  Who knows if 2013 will be a down year for Shula.  You look at year 2 and year 3 because on both of those years teams had tape on Cam and the offense and were prepared for what we would do.  And I think points per yard is a much better stat than total yards or yards per drive because efficiency is a function of how productive you are in manufacturing points which is what wins games not yards. And as you noted Shula's offense and special teams were much better in 2013 versus 2012.  For those interested we scored a point every 16.1 yards in 2012 and we scored a point every 13.8 yards in 2013.  If you haven't seen that stat elsewhere, now you have.

 

Thank you for the stats.  Even though your conclusions were faulty and our 2013 offense by almost any measure was better than in 2012, at least you are willing to look at numbers and stats instead of hiding behind the old saw that you know what you saw.

 

Yeah I won't argue that the offense was more efficient in 2012 than in 2013. I suppose it comes down to whether you think a repeat of 2012 or 2011 would have been more likely under Chud. While you're right no teams having tape of Cam was a major factor in 2011, I think a bounce back would have been in order as Cam improved in his 3rd year.  Would the offense return to 2011 levels?  Probably not.  Would it be better than 2012?  Probably.  That's an assumption, but I don't think its a totally unreasonable one.

 

Either way, my original point was that IMO Shula should be in the hot seat.  As you said, maybe this was a down year for him/the offense.  If it wasn't, and this is really the best we can do offensively under him, he shouldn't be brought back.  Because, despite all the ball control efficiency etc., if anything goes wrong with the defense, we're going to struggle to win games.  Put it this way: if 2013 was the real Shula offense, would you be comfortable with that and a not top 10 defense?

[Ruff]

Barring a catastrophic season, this ain't gonna happen.

[CRA]

Yeah I won't argue that the offense was more efficient in 2012 than in 2013. I suppose it comes down to whether you think a repeat of 2012 or 2011 would have been more likely under Chud. While you're right no teams having tape of Cam was a major factor in 2011, I think a bounce back would have been in order as Cam improved in his 3rd year. Would the offense return to 2011 levels? Probably not. Would it be better than 2012? Probably. That's an assumption, but I don't think its a totally unreasonable one.

Either way, my original point was that IMO Shula should be in the hot seat. As you said, maybe this was a down year for him/the offense. If it wasn't, and this is really the best we can do offensively under him, he shouldn't be brought back. Because, despite all the ball control efficiency etc., if anything goes wrong with the defense, we're going to struggle to win games. Put it this way: if 2013 was the real Shula offense, would you be comfortable with that and a not top 10 defense?

Id be comfortable with the Shula offense with a real OL.

The Shula O last year behind a shakey OL helped the D be dominant. Too many people gloss over Shula's offensive role in helping our D be what they were

[panthers55]

Yeah I won't argue that the offense was more efficient in 2012 than in 2013. I suppose it comes down to whether you think a repeat of 2012 or 2011 would have been more likely under Chud. While you're right no teams having tape of Cam was a major factor in 2011, I think a bounce back would have been in order as Cam improved in his 3rd year.  Would the offense return to 2011 levels?  Probably not.  Would it be better than 2012?  Probably.  That's an assumption, but I don't think its a totally unreasonable one.

 

Either way, my original point was that IMO Shula should be in the hot seat.  As you said, maybe this was a down year for him/the offense.  If it wasn't, and this is really the best we can do offensively under him, he shouldn't be brought back.  Because, despite all the ball control efficiency etc., if anything goes wrong with the defense, we're going to struggle to win games.  Put it this way: if 2013 was the real Shula offense, would you be comfortable with that and a not top 10 defense?

What I hope is that Shula is growing and developing to become a great offensive coordinator by gaining the input from an experienced veteran in Ramsdell. I remember Ron saying that the thing he wished he had a veteran coach to help him make the best decisions.  I think this group of coaches welcome input from players, coaches and colleagues. I expect that Shula would welcome the opportunity to work with Ramsdell who had his most success as a quarterback's coach for the greatest show on turf.  He moved on to the Charger's as quarterback's coach where he worked with Ron.  So no matter who wanted him here, hopefully everyone did, he has a good understanding of how to run our vertical passing attack.  When that is combined with Shula's knowledge of Chud's offense and Cam's strengths and weaknesses, it should result in more passing yards although the offensive line and money are skewed to the running game. Hopefully a healthy Stewart will portend good things although no one bets on that these days.  Its about time he started to show up and earn that huge salary cap cost.  Don't have a choice given we are wedded to him for a few years. I would rather he be remembered as a good back who finally got healthy and has his best years as part of a superbowl team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So is that too much?