The Dead Horse and the Ball Bat

[UpstatePanther]

okay so here is another thread about the prospects of our 2014 receiving corps. i came across some information on Bleacher Report of all places and thought i would share. I've not seen this information all put in one place, at least not in a concise way so here's my try. 

 

First lets start with the production of the old guard in 2013 ordered by yardage: (* - denotes returning player)

 

     Player:     Catch:     TRG:     Catch%     Yds:     TD:

     Olsen*       73           109        70.0         816       6

     Smith         64           109        58.7         745       4

     LaFell        49            88         55.7         627       5

     Ginn          36            68         52.9         556       5

     Williams*    26            36         72.2         333       1

     Tolbert*     27            32         84.4         184       2

     Hixon          7              9           77.8         55        1

     Stewart*     7               7         100.0         44        0

 

Next lets consider the new guard ordered according to 2013 yardage:

 

     Player:          Catch:     TRG:     Catch%     Yds:     TD:

     Benjamin         54          87?        62.1       1,011     15

     Olsen              73          109        70.0         816        6

     Cotchery         46           76         60.5         602      10

     Avant              38           76          50.0        447        2

     Underwood      24           45         53.3         440       4

     Williams           26           36         72.2         333       1

     Dickson           25           43         58.2         273       1

     Tolbert             27          32          84.4        184        2

     Stewart             7             7         100.0         44        0

 

It was very difficult, for some strange reason, to find either a catch% or # of targets for Kelvin Benjamin. i found a percentage at a non-credible source and inferred targets from there, but that's the best i could do. apologies.

 

lets also look at the averages for the catch%, and the yardage and # of TDs for the 2013 corps and 2014 corps:

 

               Avg. Catch %:     Tot. Yds:     Tot. TD:

     2013       71.5                  3,360            24

     2014       67.9                  4,150            41

     (w/o KB)  68.5                  3,139            26

 

i find it interesting that our new corps outproduced our old last year. Granted, 2014's catch % was alittle lower than 2013's but i wont argue with a 4% drop in completed passes in exchange for nearly a thousand more yards and 17 more touchdowns. most interesting to me was that, as ignored and underrated our new corps is, they still essentially equaled the production of the 2013 corps without Benjamin. let the media talk all it wants about Smitty's leadership and fire (which i am not discounting), but he is declining. leadership and fire are nice, but production is what matters. I will take a higher-producing receiver that isnt a leader and plays with average motivation over a declining Smitty-type any day. 

 

Finally, for those who wonder if Kelvin Benjamin will take a year or two to make a difference on the offense, i thought it might be interesting to check out the performance of the top rookie receivers from the last few years (per BR):

 

Year:     Player:                 Yds:     TD:

2013     Keenan Allen        1046     8

2012     Justin Blackmon    865       5

2011     A.J. Green            1057     7

2010     Mike Williams         964     11

2009     Percy Harvin          790      6     

Average:                           944.4    7.4

 

I would argue that just because of the mismatch and redzone threat that Benjamin is, he will make an immediate difference. However if Benjamin can get 900yds and 7 TDs, it will be an extremely successful rookie season for him. And i do believe that Benjamin could attain those stats, especially the TD total. Not to mention that 900/7 would replace even our beloved Smitty's production. 

 

I wont make specific stat predictions. im not experienced enough analyzing pro football to do that. But i have a great feeling about this year's receiving corps. If Gettleman's plan for the OL works out (which preferrably would include picking up some OT talent during training camp cuts), i believe the passing game could be very much improved in 2014. we'll see, but the future seems bright to me. 

 

Sources:

- http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2072602-how-productive-will-the-carolina-panthers-wide-receiver-unit-be-in-2014

- http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2074036-kelvin-benjamin-must-live-up-to-first-round-pick-for-panthers-to-make-playoffs

- http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1860744/kelvin-benjamin

- http://www.steelersdepot.com/2014/01/2014-nfl-draft-player-profiles-florida-state-wr-kelvin-benjamin/

- i also referred to ESPN.com's player stat pages for information not listed in the links above

[Mother Grabber]

[Pejorative Miscreant]

While I agree with the apples and oranges comparison I can definitely understand the rationale from the front office. Basically our receiving corp last year was replaceable with another group of JAGs and lower cap implications. I suspect they believe Cotchery, at this point in his career can come close to replicating Smiths numbers from last year if not exceed them. That said I believe the point that OP is making is that WR might not be the big hole everyone is predicting.

[Moose87Banks]

Benjamin will not have 15tds and 1100 yards. I think he'll be good. But don't set such a high standard for him.

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[TANTRIC-NINJA]

Benjamin will not have 15tds and 1100 yards. I think he'll be good. But don't set such a high standard for him.

Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

He never said he would get 1100 and 15 in his rookie year. It was 900 and 7 tds.(the avg of high performing Wrs in the last few yrs.)

[Moose87Banks]

Ahh I misread

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[Strawman]

Horse is uber dead.

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[UpstatePanther]

Benjamin will not have 15tds and 1100 yards. I think he'll be good. But don't set such a high standard for him.

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i didnt say he would. i said 900 yards and 7 TDs would be a extremely successful season for KB. and even 900 yards may be hard for the rook to get to. im thinking 700-800 yards and 6-10 TDs.

[Moose87Banks]

i didnt say he would. i said 900 yards and 7 TDs would be a extremely successful season for KB. and even 900 yards may be hard for the rook to get to. im thinking 700-800 yards and 6-10 TDs.

Relax... if you read my post after that I said I misread it.

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[UpstatePanther]

Horse is uber dead.

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my bad Strawman.

[UpstatePanther]

Relax... if you read my post after that I said I misread it.

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yea my bad. didnt read far enough down. 

[EMSMedic79]

Providing Dickson stays healthy, the two TE set is gonna be big this season. I could see him reeling in 5-6 TD's to be honest.

[rayzor]

ramsdell throws a big wrench into projections, imo.

 

we did add vets who are better and more consistent pass catchers than what we had and cam has bigger red zone targets than last year so we should see a more efficient and productive offense just based on that.

 

ramsdell has a bit more of an aggressive approach to offense than shula has. the nature of that relationship and the effect ramsdell will have just makes me think that the offense won't be as conservative as it was last year.

 

point is, we have no idea how things are going to be on offense this year. even if things weren't changing bc of ramsdell, you can't really take a receivers numbers from a different team with a different system and different opponents and a very different situation overall and tell what they will do here or really anywhere.

 

i think things will be better this year, but how that will be....i dunno. we still have poo at OT. our only effective rushers are the QB and FB. cam will be walking into an offense for the second time of his pro career with a brand new and very unfamiliar cast of WRs. there's just too many unknowns to consider in getting any idea of how things will be this year. i'm content with a wait and see approach. i can dream and imagine the best or worst, but whether i'm right or wrong about it is just dumb luck and that's going to be the same with anyone trying to make projections about this offense.

[UpstatePanther]

ramsdell throws a big wrench into projections, imo.

 

we did add vets who are better and more consistent pass catchers than what we had and cam has bigger red zone targets than last year so we should see a more efficient and productive offense just based on that.

 

ramsdell has a bit more of an aggressive approach to offense than shula has. the nature of that relationship and the effect ramsdell will have just makes me think that the offense won't be as conservative as it was last year.

 

point is, we have no idea how things are going to be on offense this year. even if things weren't changing bc of ramsdell, you can't really take a receivers numbers from a different team with a different system and different opponents and a very different situation overall and tell what they will do here or really anywhere.

 

i think things will be better this year, but how that will be....i dunno. we still have poo at OT. our only effective rushers are the QB and FB. cam will be walking into an offense for the second time of his pro career with a brand new and very unfamiliar cast of WRs. there's just too many unknowns to consider in getting any idea of how things will be this year. i'm content with a wait and see approach. i can dream and imagine the best or worst, but whether i'm right or wrong about it is just dumb luck and that's going to be the same with anyone trying to make projections about this offense.

 

i was simply saying that there is plenty of potential when it comes to the receiving corps. i know there are other variables to consider. Cam's injury/surgery will affect things for sure. i completely forgot about Ramsdell. i hope his very presence kicks Shula in the poo organ. im with you rayzor. im hopeful but its still mostly a hopeful-wait-and-see