More 7th round picks and undrafted free agents have 10yr or more careers than 1st round picks

[Happy Panther]

So says Jay Feeley at 5:54

 

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2014/05/day_3_of_nfl_draft_2014_the_li.html

 

Sounds specious and I can't find any other evidence

 

Anyone seen any stats like this? I have pro bowl stats by round and they look exactly like you would think. Most come from the first and least come from the 7th.

 

 

[t96]

Career backups? Also there are a lot lot lot more 7th rounders and UDFA's. The actual number could be bigger, but the percentage of 1st rounders with 10 year careers is definitely much higher than the percentage of 7th rounders or UDFAs.

[csx]

Because they are backups and don't play or get injured. Makes sense.

[Ricky Spanish]

Well... yeah, that makes sense but not the way he means it.

 

He's talking about x number of players out of 32 having a 10 year career and comparing it to 32 + comp picks + infinite number of undrafted guys and their careers. I would believe the larger sample size would include more examples... statistically speaking.

[Ricky Spanish]

Career backups? Also there are a lot lot lot more 7th rounders and UDFA's. The actual number could be bigger, but the percentage of 1st rounders with 10 year careers is definitely much higher than the percentage of 7th rounders or UDFAs.

 

Exactly. Causation and correlation. I'm sure the percentage is much much higher for first rounders. 

[csx]

Kickers and long snappers that play until they are 40

[RockyTopVol]

There are also a lot more 7th rounders/UDFAs than first rounders every year.  

[Happy Panther]

Well... yeah, that makes sense but not the way he means it.

 

He's talking about x number of players out of 32 having a 10 year career and comparing it to 32 + comp picks + infinite number of undrafted guys and their careers. I would believe the larger sample size would include more examples... statistically speaking.

 

OK maybe he is right. Just for fun I checked our roster for 10+ year vets

 

Chase Blackburn - UDFA

Colin Cole - UDFA

Thomas Davis - 1st 

[CarolinaPanthers8789]

One aspect that I think that gets overlooked is being able to pick your own team.

Robert Lester and Melvin white literally fell into a perfect situation with us last year. The safety position and the corner position were weak for us and those two took advantage of the opportunity and now have a chance to make a name for themselves.

[FootballMaestro]

I also Stephen A Smith refernce on First Talk, (maybe the same guy) that 47/48 7th rounders (don't know how they cam up with that number if they're 32 teams) were still on their rosters. 

 

Either way, the stats make sense, if this one is true as well. 

[the_philosopher]

99% of people who die young have two arms. So, I'm going to cut my left arm off.

[FootballMaestro]

The bottom line is: Fans focus too much attention on the first round, when Teams/GM's and reputations are made in rounds 3-7, where many teams pick up steals, or lone time great players. 

 

They're a lot of flops in the first round as well. 

[CubsWin]

It still amazes me that folks walk in lock step with the media hype that is the draft.  The truth is none of it really matters.  Being a success in college does not equate to success in the NFL.. (Tom Brady, Terrill Davis, Brett Favre, and a host of others) Everyone relax.. By all standards and THE NUMBERS we should be a much better team than we were last year.. I'm so thankful the season is not determined by you lot.  

 

With that said, I love you all and my head hurts.