The Observer researches Wide Receivers

[Mr. Scot]

The Observer compiled a list of the NFL’s top 40 receivers – essentially, those talented enough to be considered No. 1s – and analyzed how they ended up with their current teams, and looked at how long it took each to become an impact player.

The conclusion? Finding a premiere receiver is not easy.

The Observer’s analysis showed:

•  More than half (24) of the league’s top 40 receivers were drafted in the first or second round. Another, Cleveland’s Josh Gordon, was selected in the second round of the 2012 supplemental draft, in exchange for the Browns’ second-round pick in 2013.

•  Only five of the 14 receivers drafted in the top 10 over the past decade made the Observer’s list, so taking a receiver early does not guarantee a player will be a star.

•  About one in five receivers (8 of 41) drafted in the second round since 2004 were among the top 40 receivers in 2013.

•  Teams are nearly as likely to find a franchise receiver picking late in the first round as those drafting one early. That’s good news for the Panthers, who pick 28th overall in Thursday’s first round.

•  Of the Observer’s 2013 top 40, 80 percent (32 of 40) became impact players within their first two years in the league, and 19 did so as a rookie.

•  Among the league’s top 10 receivers, nine are 6-foot-3 or taller (the 10th – Dallas wideout Dez Bryant – is 6-2 and 225 pounds).

•  The majority of the best wideouts (27 of 40) are still with their original team, including eight in the top 10. Ten signed as unrestricted free agents, including two – Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson – after they were cut during the offseason. Three others were acquired in trade.

The Panthers of course have done their own studies and analyses. Gettleman, who broke into the business as a scout, said teams should expect a transition period with a young wideout, regardless of the round in which he’s drafted.

“History will tell you that wideouts don’t assimilate quickly,” Gettleman said last week. “I trust our evaluation process.”

Gettleman, the former New York Giants’ pro personnel director, said he had only two receivers with first-round grades last year, his first as the Panthers’ general manager.

The two presumably came from a group that included Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Rock Hill’s Cordarrelle Patterson, all of whom were drafted in the first round and had productive rookie seasons.

Draft experts believe six wide receivers could be taken in the first round this year, possibly all before the Panthers pick. The group includes Clemson’s Sammy Watkins, widely considered the best receiver available and likely a top-five pick.

 

Looking at the rosters of the four teams who played in the conference championship round last season, only Denver had a receiver considered among the game’s top five wideouts – Demaryius Thomas, whose 1,430 receiving yards ranked fourth in the league.

But three of those four teams had at least two wideouts among the league’s top 40. Seattle and Denver, who met in the Super Bowl, each had three.

The Broncos had Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, who signed with the Jets during the offseason. The Super Bowl-champion Seahawks had Golden Tate, Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin.

The Patriots were the only team among the final four with just one elite receiver. Julian Edelman, a seventh-round pick from Kent State, spent four seasons waiting behind Welker before breaking out with a 105-catch season after Welker went to Denver.

Edelman is an outlier among the Observer’s top 40 receivers, the only one of the 40 to have his breakout season in his fifth season – and one of only eight to do so after his second year.

 

 

The Panthers have other needs, too. They’re looking for a left tackle to replace Jordan Gross, who retired after 11 seasons, and they could use a young cornerback.

The offensive tackle group is talented, though not as deep as the receiving class. Gettleman insists he’ll take the best player available and won’t reach to fill a positional need.

The Panthers have taken only two wideouts in the first two rounds in the past 10 drafts – Dwayne Jarrett in 2007 and Keary Colbert in 2004. And while Gettleman doubled up on defensive tackles with his first two picks in last year’s draft, it’s worth noting he and the Giants took a wideout (Nicks at No. 29) in the last receiver-rich draft, with nearly the same draft position as the Panthers this year.

“I’m not going to insult your intelligence,” Gettleman told reporters last week. “You all know it’s a heckuva wide receiver draft and there’s a solid tackle group.”

But the Panthers could face a tough decision if the tackles and wideouts ranked highest on their draft board are gone when it’s their turn to pick at 28.

Mayock worked through a mock draft recently in which the top five tackles and his six highest-rated wideouts – Watkins, Evans, LSU’s Odell Beckham, Oregon State’s Brandin Cooks, USC’s Marqise Lee and Benjamin – had all been taken in front of the Panthers.

Mayock had the Panthers drafting Virginia offensive tackle Morgan Moses in that scenario.

In Mel Kiper’s most recent mock, the ESPN draft guru predicted the Panthers would take Fresno State’s Davante Adams, who at 6-1, 212 pounds was the nation’s leading receiver last season with 131 catches and was second with 1,719 receiving yards.

“Do I think Marqise Lee or Kelvin Benjamin could get to (the Panthers)? Yeah, they could. But it’s a little bit of a crapshoot right now,” Mayock said. “All six first-round wideouts could be gone before 28. I think all five tackles could be gone by 28. So they could be looking at a Morgan Moses, or a Davante Adams at wideout.”

 

 

Observer Study: Search for a number one WR comes with a catch

 

[The Huddler]

fug the observer. I'm never clicking on that site. Has shitty writers, but most of all, they jumped on Cam with the hello kitty BS.

[Mr. Scot]

I'm not a member of the Joe Person fan club, but to his credit, this is a decent article.  Looks like he actually did put some work into it.

[The Huddler]

Much respect for you, Mr. Scot, so I pie, but I don't have respect for the observer.

[thefuzz]

•  Among the league’s top 10 receivers, nine are 6-foot-3 or taller (the 10th – Dallas wideout Dez Bryant – is 6-2 and 225 pounds).

 

 

This jumps out to me.  And it should for all the posters out there who say you don't need a big WR.

 

 

[SOJA]

link is to OP's post

[gettlemanjack]

• Among the league’s top 10 receivers, nine are 6-foot-3 or taller (the 10th – Dallas wideout Dez Bryant – is 6-2 and 225 pounds).

This jumps out to me. And it should for all the posters out there who say you don't need a big WR.

6-5/240 Kelvin Benjamin

6-5/231 Mike Evans

6-3/220 Allen Robinson

6-3/215 Cody Latimer

6-3/212 Jordan Matthews

6-3/198 Devin Street

----------------

6-2/221 Donte Moncrief

6-2/198 Kevin Norwood

----------------

6-1/212 Davante Adams

6-1/211 Sammy Watkins

6-1/195 Jared Abbrederis

6-0/205 Jarvis Landry

6-0/192 Marqise Lee

5-11/198 Odell Beckham

5-10/189 Brandin Cooks

[Ruff]

•  Among the league’s top 10 receivers, nine are 6-foot-3 or taller (the 10th – Dallas wideout Dez Bryant – is 6-2 and 225 pounds).

 

 

This jumps out to me.  And it should for all the posters out there who say you don't need a big WR.

That's the one thing I really took away from that entire article.

[mr beauxjangles]

Doug Baldwin. LOL.

[FootballMaestro]

•  Among the league’s top 10 receivers, nine are 6-foot-3 or taller (the 10th – Dallas wideout Dez Bryant – is 6-2 and 225 pounds).

 

 

This jumps out to me.  And it should for all the posters out there who say you don't need a big WR.

 

Sadly, the Panthers have needed a big receiver since Cam's arrival (even with the two TE sets of Olsen and Shockey which surely compensated/helped). 

[top dawg]

The link is not working for me, but in any event I would like to know what metrics they were using.  I would like to know how it compares to the thread I did earlier this year where I looked at the 2013 season.  

 

[thefuzz]

Sadly, the Panthers have needed a big receiver since Cam's arrival (even with the two TE sets of Olsen and Shockey which surely compensated/helped). 

 

Agreed.

 

I wanted Vincent Jackson here so bad I could taste it, instead we sign DWill and Stew to stupid contracts.

[Mr. Scot]

The link is not working for me...

 

Try it again, or try this one.

 

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/05/03/4884003/observer-study-search-for-no-1.html#.U2aMMigk5hJ

 

[top dawg]

 

 

This jumps out to me.  And it should for all the posters out there who say you don't need a big WR.

That's the one thing I really took away from that entire article.

 

 

I would like big WRs aslo, but do I think they are absolutely necessary?  We only need to look at the Seahawks to dispel that notion as an absolute. There are probably other examples as well.

 

But don't get me wrong, all things being equal, a big beast of a wide-out would be great.