TD alt

No, what it says is teams are giving up on QBs way too early. Back when I was coming up QBs generally sat two or three years actually learning the position. You see, FOs and all involved were a lot smarter back then. On an off note, considering that there's approximately a 50 percent (more or less) hit rate for QBs in the first round, your math in reference to Darnold and Pickett is way off.

Sure it is, but is it enough to make a correct one?

I don't call the shots. No fan or analyst does. In case you forgot, I am very much a Bryce skeptic.

Like I said before, I don't get the "only as a UDFA" sentiment, you have to keep following your board. Now if Pavia falls to what amounts to the supplementary UDFA section of the board, that's great, but if he's sitting at the top when you're picking day three (yes, I can't see him being drafted before day three), then you pull the trigger. Rounds 5-7 don't generally provide keepers anyway, you can use them for players that you want to take a closer look at that you may be able to develop. Pavia may not translate to the pros. Nobody would bet anything of value on it. But, he was highly productive in college due to his play extension abilities, "body torque" mechanics on short and intermediate throws, and good accuracy on said throws. And, he has that dawg in him to be sure. All that being said, Drew Allar will probably be able to be had on day three, and if it comes down to it--due to nothing but my prejudice against short, weak-armed QBs--I'd pick Allar.

Yeah, receivers contracts are crazy, and it's probably not going to change. You almost have to take your swings--keep some picks at WR churning between rounds one through three in order to keep your costs down and give you options at contract time. Creating that value surplus appears to be more important at WR and all the premium positions than getting a non-premium position player who generally are just easier to replace as it pertains to value. The holy grail is to hit on a premium position late, but due to the gradually declining hit rate on days one and two that drops off a cliff day three, you basically have to get lucky.

Very interesting indeed. It did make my head swim more. It said a lot, but it still didn't give any concrete answers. Kinda makes me want to pivot back towards a premium position though...

BPA is based on the board, not the WR position. Some want to make it about WR because of their own notions, but it's about the board and whoever is at the top of it.

I mean, it's really not germaine to the ultimate point, which is what was quoted.

And what analysts are those? The ones I listen to say that this is the year to finally get our answer about whether he's the future or not. As a matter of fact I haven't heard anyone endorse him, it's all based in hope for the nice guy.

"So much of what the Panthers are going to do next week isn't dictated by their preference, but by what happens above them. That's another benefit of not getting locked into need. For instance, if you're thinking you want a receiver, seeing five or six of them go off the board and reacting by taking the sixth or seventh off your list instead of the first (or second or third) something else isn't necessarily wise." https://www.panthers.com/news/ask-the-old-guy-back-into-the-weeds-of-the-nfl-draft-bryce-young-charlotte-hornets-mock-draft This is what some don't seem to get, I don't care how many times it is said: You're NOT going to draft an inferior person at one position, just because that position is perceived as, or is in fact, a bigger need. That would basically nullify, or at least lessen, the reason why you set yourself up via free agency to be able to take the BPA/BAP on the board in the first place. Yes, the process is complex, very much involved and ongoing, but the overall philosophy is not rocket science. You set yourself up in order not to be pigeonholed into taking a lower graded player at the expense of a higher graded one. This is why Morgan, Gantt and countless of others say the same thing. This is why it's just nonsensical to set yourself in a position where you don't have to, but then act like you have to come hell or high water: "Oh, we have to draft [whatever position], and we can't draft [this position]." I'm good with whatever they do, until proven otherwise, but even then, you have to be mature enough to know that drafting is an imperfect exercise, filled with hits and misses. And, you generally don't know if you've hit, and especially missed, right away. Moreover, like I've said before, sometimes two players--different positions or not--can both be hits on their respective teams, so in that sense, it's not purely about a right or wrong pick as much as it's about putting puzzle pieces together at the time the best way that you know how. At the end of the day, people are going to believe what they want to believe, but one thing that's true is that what the Panthers do regarding the draft is dependent upon what others do, and what others do can and does change things. That being the case, it's just another reason why you can't go in with tunnel vision. The thought of doing that is preposterous.

Even if you're correct, that doesn't mean that he should be. If it was a class with more clear-cut boundary X receivers, he almost certainly wouldn't be.

Thieneman has a couple of things to improve, especially suspect angles at times, but coaching and hopefully experience should help him to unlock upside. The reason that I like him is that I think that he's the perfect fit for what we need at the position. Those type of instincts, speed and athleticism at the safety position shouldn't be taken for granted in my opinion, and though they aren't exactly rare, they are rare enough. I feel that his presence, especially in fitting what this defense needs, will elevate the team more than any other need that we have, and do it for years to come. That being said, I don't think moving up to get him is off the table. If he is gone, I do think we'll go receiver, unless maybe Fano falls or my fellow Dawg Monroe Freeling. In that case there will probably be a discussion, but I think receiver will win out, whether it's Concepcion or Cooper.

Tyson has had so many injuries, ain't no way I think that we should draft him in the first. Some team may bite, but I hope it's not us, especially considering that Ted Hurst can probably be had on day 2.