Newtcase

1 minute ago, Icege said:

I mean, there is though.

You're saying that we're straight up paying $55M for folks to not play for us, which simply isn't true when given the context. For example, those DJ Moore + CMC numbers are from trades for draft picks. The way these are typically evaluated (as Casillas pointed out in a previous post somewhere, maybe not this thread) are by a point system based on how much the teams believe a player is "worth." This isn't simply a "We're just paying people to not pay for us." This is a, "We traded two of our premiere players for draft capital (one of them being a move up to #1 for a potential franchise QB)."

When you remove those two players (DJ + CMC), that $55M falls to $21M. That's less than half of the number you're pitching a fit over. If you go even further and remove the Chosen Anderson contract (which was universally regarded as a bad extension), that number drops to ~$12M. This is during a season where the league average for dead cap is nearly $29M for a team.

Your current presentation of the issue is limited to your frustration which excludes the circumstances involved. As a result of you choosing to dismiss said context, you've come across as being misleading.

Relax guy, no one is pitching a fit.  Just stating that we're paying a lot of money for players not on the roster, which is true no matter how you chop up the conversation.  I appreciate the deeper explanation on DJ and CMC and how that is nuanced.

With your explanation I think we can agree that amounts to us paying 34mil for Bryce Young and DJ Johnson in 2023.

I think the merit of paying Burns survives under either circumstance.  Just my opinion.

Just now, TheCasillas said:

Did you not read my comment? 

Yeah I did, the one where you said part of our dead money was restructures?  That was a chuckle.

Otherwise, my point stands we have 55mil in dead money.  That is to say, 55mil of our 2023 cap space is committed to players who aren't on the team.  There is nothing misleading about that.

3 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Kind of misleading since 33 million of that is from the CMC and DJ Moore trades. 
 

Robby Anderson is the bonehead one with the 9 mill in dead cap… the rest is cuts and restructures 

How is it misleading?  Which of these players are on the roster?

I mean we're paying 54mil in dead money this year.  If we can pay players 54 mil to not play here I'm pretty sure we could pay Burns 28-30mil to do his thing.

Edit: We have another 25mil on IR.

2 hours ago, Jmac said:

Ride this season out and come back better next year.

This should be a Panther's t-shirt at this point.

Not sure what our market has to do with how you build a team.

I'd go with Green Bay or Philadelphia.  I just want the franchise to stabilize.

Green Bay - Only four losing seasons since 2000.

Philadelphia - Only five losing seasons since 2000.

21 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

Interesting take. While I do generally agree that better drafting would generate more depth and a better overall team I wanted to compare to the other teams in the league to see if the data supports that claim.

Carolina vs the NFL

To be as objective as possible I used the "DrAV" metric from PFR to determine if a player was a "contributor". To qualify as a contributor, a player's DrAV had to meet or exceed the median DrAV from their draft class. Re-stated, if a player was in the upper half of their class, they were counted as a "contributor" for the team that drafted them. I'll admit there is probably a better way to do this, I just wanted something quick.

Since it took a bit to scrape this all together, I only went back as far as 2016. I also calculated the hit rate for each team or # contributors / # picks. Here are those results.

My takeaway is that, over the time span I looked at, the Panthers are slightly below average in terms of finding contributors in the draft. Their 43% rate is just below the league average of 45%. Surprisingly, Philidelphia actually has a lower contribution rate from their draft picks (40% overall); if anything, that should give us all hope that drafting isn't everything to a team's success.

I also found it interesting that our NFC south foes have all done a better job of finding contributors in the draft: ATL at a whopping 63% clip, NO at 56%, and TB at 53%.

Carolina GMs

For those interested I also zoomed in on the Panthers and broke things down by GM; It's crazy that we have had 3 in such a short time period. The percentages shown are the hit rate.

My takeaway here is that the jury is still out on Fitterer. Despite the lack of star power, his 2021 draft did end up producing a decent amount of value for the team. His 2022 draft on the other hand was rough. How much of that is him vs Rhule vs the new coaching staff wanting different players is hard to tell. Note that I am not interested in looking at the 2023 draft until after the season.

I mean this really means nothing tbh.  While our draft classes may land a "hit" on this spreadsheet, calling our 43% vs KC 49% only a 6% difference is ludicrous.  Patrick Mahommes counts for the same hit % as any single player counted for us.  Those things are not equal.

Well it's official, I'm also now worried.

Not sure being an "NFL exec" is always the best qualification.  Plenty of these guys get fired every year for failing at their job.  Hell, at least half the huddle thinks Fitt's best talent is ordering extra cheese on his whopper.  

With that said, grading out a C for BY seems like a fair conclusion at this point.  We just need to see mental growth from the rook in a big way.  His physical traits aren't going to change in a meaningful way.

15 hours ago, frankw said:

People were changing 1 and 2 on their draft boards a good bit in the lead up. But I concede Bryce did become the defacto on most draft boards. Of course that was due to the S2 and some nefarious things said about Stroud ie his intelligence and vague unsourced claims about his character.

The real tinfoil hat question is....did Stroud's team leak that themselves to avoid being drafted by Carolina?  

15 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

There is no proof anywhere that Tepper has been sticking his nose in specific football decisions.  Directing the team to figure out the QB position, sure, but I don't think for one second he's ever had any impact on which players we target and go after, he leaves that up to the football people.

BY on that dinner.  Does this sound like Tepper wasn't involved?

“It was a lot of getting to know each other,” Young said via the NFL Network of his meetings with the team brass. “I really do appreciate the dedication to everything. With Mr. Tepper, him being so involved, that just shows how much he cares about the team and you can tell that that radiates through the entire coaching staff. They’re extremely invested in everything. I’ve been able to talk to them and they have a very clear plan of what they want for the future and what they’ve been building, and they’ve been doing that for a while now. Just being able to sit with him and everyone else that was a part of the dinner, it was just a great opportunity for me and a great experience. Even personally, I learned a lot from just hearing from their philosophies on and off the field. So it was a great experience for me.”

Bryce works out for us, best pun of the year. 

Man this defense has really started to feel the attrition and it was finally too much to overcome in Seattle.

Horn, Shaq, Frankie, Xavier and CJ

We still might have pulled this game out if our LT/LG could have played with discipline.  

No no no, Denver's defense is just bad.  Miami shouldn't get any credit for that performance.

/sarcasm

Clearly Bryce will be good because Tua figured it out.  So will Justin Fields and Zach Wilson.  You know because "insert random successful" qb putting it together is obviously a predictive model.

2 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

Against the worst pass defense in the NFL….

And the fact that you’re pushing that around without context is what makes it a narrative. Because it fuels your misguided notions about Bryce. As a “mod” you should be better than this, but this is why the huddle is so trash. 

So two games in is too soon to know anything about Bryce, but completely soon enough to know how good Seattle's defense is, got it.  Seattle probably played their best defensive game of the year yesterday.  That was a tough test in a very hostile environment, all signs indicate BY would have completely crumbled.  I'm sure you'll queue up some emotional insult or imaginary conjecture to combat the obvious.

2 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

Ridiculous statement. 

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17 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Yeah Chark and Thielen looked themselves with an actual qb throwing to them. I hope JT breaks the tape down and calls them by their names when they make plays to show a little respect

JT cherry picks his analysis to support previous conclusions until it’s no longer possible.  His “analysis” ranges anywhere from less than 30 minutes to well over an hour.  A true objective analysis would grade every play.  JT is good at breaking down tape, he’s even better at making YT videos that people want to watch.

Anyone that thinks BY could have done what Andy did today is smoking some strong poo.  I have hope for BY but the kid needs to sit and the rifle needs to hunt.

His sideline gun chewing game is def on par with Pete Carrol and that could have helped us TODAY!  But with Seattle now behind us imma have to hard pass.  No more gum chewing showdowns on the schedule.

Fitts is a Chicago double agent and is fantastic at that job.

It is burnt down and this is what burnt down looks like.

I feel sorry for anyone that didn’t believe black cats were bad luck before they got here.

Well CJ just moved ahead of Mahommes to 3rd most yards in first three starts, now only behind Cam and Herbert.

Oh he just added another 70+TD and there’s still 10 mins left.

3 hours ago, Cam's New Arm said:

To summarize this video, this guy shows where Bryce has certainly had his share of bad plays but how most of his two games have been spent throwing nothing but anticipation balls to coverd / quiting recivers. Talks about lack of play creativity and how Bryce can certainly still take easier plays that are there.

Mostly, he says and shows that Bryce is playing well above what the stats show, obviously. He also agrees with the team "resting" Bryce while they go to Seattle and learn a little more about how to run their offense. 

It was a good video with no Homer bias.

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