panthers55

The issue isn't whether the test measures what is supposed to or even if a person over time scores similarly without significant practice effect. It is whether small differences in processing speed, visual field, spatial visualization, roblem solving which are actually measured by many nonverbal IQ tests to differing extents, is predictive of success in the NFl. To say no one who ever scored low actually suceeded suggests no outliers at all which I suggest is because the N is too low. Beyond that though is the other end of the spectrum. How many scored high and didn't succeed. You need to know that to decide what to think of Young. Was a difference of 10 points predictive of success or failure or was it only at the extremes which would be predictable. What if a really low score is a big reg flag but small differences in scores don't really mean much about success.

This is great. If CJ really scored that low and Young scored so high then watching to see how they do will go a long way toward showing how valid this test really is. Since apparently no one who scored a low score has even suceeded.

Widely used norm based tests have hundreds of thousands of subjects collected over decades. That is why they are valid for ongoing use. This test is less than 8 years old and has less than a 1000 quarterbacks evaluated. What I have seen were cherry picked players and how they performed versus how they scored. And since this test is supposed to be predictive of success it takes years of actually playing to see if who had high or low scores failed or succeeded. So that 1000 quarterbacks is now cut by a third. And then the folks who were tested but didn't make it to the actual NFL reduce it more. So how many folks are we talking about? Truth is the information touted as proof is more anecdotal than well researched and valid. There're a number of performance based tests to detect ADHD for example that are purported to be effective and have decades of use that really aren't nearly as useful as they would want you to believe.

Most cognitive tests are based on a score of 100 as the 50th percentile and it goes up or down from there. These are norm based tests whose scores are uaed to compare one against the other. Clearly this is different with a top score of 99 and you receive a score based on how well you perform against a standard typically known as a criterion referenced test. The problem is that it is hard to decide how much weight to give a factor which doesn't have much longevity or a large pool of testers to compare and make meaningful conclusions. And if you put weight on a test with little validity it is worse than ignoring it completely

Of course it is one test battery which is likely heavily nonverbal with timed tests and tasks. But if it isn't reliable and valid for predicting future qb success then it is worse than useless and actually counterproductive since you are using the results to make decisions putting weigh on factors which are not positively correlated with actual success.

Two questions. How big a difference is a 98 versus an 89 in processing speed? Milliseconds, seconds? And since it has been around for 7 or 8 years how reliable and valid can it predict NFL success? Does a 94 mean they will be a probowler but not win the Superbowl versus an 89 who will be a bust. This will be interesting to track over time..

Actually it would have. Grass is more of a cushion than turf and even cold dirt is much softer than concrete

Young will be the pick. He has the personality, drive, and attitude to be the best in the league although he would say he just wants to be the best version of himself. He was a psych major and had great teachers and mentors along the way. I am not as worried as I was about injuries when he said he was always smaller than everyone else and just takes that as a given. So he knows how to avoid contact and not take full body assaults. He really seems special. I honestly have changed my mind and readily see what the coaches see in Young. I like everyone will be rooting for good health.

Difference is receivers most often get tackled by Dbs and safeties maybe a linebacker. They all are around 30 - 40 lbs of each other. That is different from Qbs who get blindsided by guys weighing 100 lbs or more they they do all the time.

Byrd is the word.....

Are the arrows a smoke screen or are we really taking him?

The draft isn't here yet and most trades get done at the draft. Let's see what happens as the draft gets close and we say definitely we are going with Young.

Just the opposite. They want Young and hope we love Stroud. I wonder if some of the young love is an attempt to get Houston to move up to take him for fear we are going to take him as well.

It was two weeks ago when supposed Texas insiders said if they don't draft Young they may skip QB in the first round. Of course it is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff these days. I have read other things including they would be fine with Young or Stroud.

I have read they only want Young and if we take him Houston may decide on someone other than a qb.

I think everyone can benefit from a change to a 3-4 if it is aggressive in style. Being in a 3-4 or a 4-3 as a base defense only 30% of the time means that most of the time they will be in something else. So the way they play and various coverages will determine who shines more than the base defense we employ. Fanzio's version is very aggressive with frequent blitzing through the A gaps which benefits ILB sack stats as much as OLBs. Coverages matter. Press man coverage might benefit Horn more than a cover 3 shell in terms of his effectiveness. And if Chinn is playing safety in press man on a TE he stays closer to the line than if they were in cover 4 for example.

Everyone of these QBs is going to have a learning curve to get ready to play in the pros. Young looks the most ready but he had the better coaches and he appears to be quite smart. One question is whether his size and good but not great measurables give him the highest floor but limit his ceiling given there are some throws he isn't good at and his size and the need to protect him limit his value in the run game. The fact that CJ played so much better against the best team he faced could be because his game is still evolving. Most of his games this year they won because they were the better team and CJ didn't have to do that much to win. He had his best game on the biggest stage playing against a better team. Perhaps his ceiling is a little higher as he keeps figuring out more elements to his game like running and being elusive. I am sure you could argue that Young has a higher floor and ceiling but I cant shake the image of Tua (who is bigger than Young) getting ragdolled and potentially ending his career. After seeing all of our quarterbacks get hurt this year, people saying size and durability aren't correlated are ignoring how many qbs get hurt each year. And Young would be one of the smaller qbs ever to play the game. And I will say one thing about Richardson. If we pick him expect a lot of losses if he starts his rookie year or get excited about Dalton starting until Richardson is ready if we plan on actually being competitive next year.

No we don't have to . Contracts are backloaded and signing bonuses are prorated so the cap hit can be as little or as large as we want. Last year the number one pick had a 4 year deal 37 million. So if we gave him a 16 million dollar signing bonus and a 1 million salary for 2023 our cap hit would be 5 million. Or with 27 million in cap space we could make the hit bigger this year. But the cap isn't a limiter to what we can do. If we signed Burns to a huge 5 year deal for 125 million our cap hit could be as small as 8 mil this year if we give him a 40 million dollar signing bonus and a 2 million dollar salary for 2023. The guaranteed money is the biggest thing.

Like many I lean toward Stroud with his bigger frame and quick accurate passes which fits the offense I think we will be running. That doesn't mean Young won't be a good choice as well. Just that you may have to adapt the gameplan to account for his size and height more than you do Stroud who is more prototypical in size.

Darnold is playing for the team he grew up rooting for as a child. What a dream to actually play for them with this loaded offense. Unless we play them at which time they all are dead to me, I will root for CMC and Darnold. They don't play in our division but are in our conference so I am fan unless we are vying for a playoff spot.

Even more reason to have a versatile guy like Chinn who is tough in coverage on the back end yet is great blitzing off the edge.

Maybe it is me but shouldn't we wait to actually see what defenses we will be running with what coverages before deciding if someone is a good fit or not. Many folks have suggested that defenses run their base defense 30-40% of the time. Most teams are in nickle coverage about 50% of the time in either a 3-3-5 or a 4-2-5 defense. Imagine all the variations and hybrids you can create. Chinn at his size can play safety or linebacker so how does he not fit? He can play strong safety as well. Teams love guys who can play multiple positions at a high level. When someone is as talented as Chinn you find ways to use him in your defense. He is a great luxury to have.

Richardson is surely in the discussion with his size and arm strength as is Levis. I agree that Stroud is not as big as you would like but he seems to have a bigger frame to build upon. I would feel much better if he were a little bit meatier. That again is what bothers me about Young. He is small, has a slight frame isn't likely to stack much more muscle which protects guys from injury. The fact that Stroud isn't that much bigger doesn't suggest we should go even smaller with Young as much as a guy like Stroud is likely the minimum we want to play with if we want to use the qb in the running game at all.

Unless it is specific to position and then further broken down by things like what type of system you run it is really useless. Cam got injured not because of his size but because he was used as a battering ram. Guys like Josh Allen are big and strong but routinely run through the line on called quarterback draws. Meanwhile a guy like Brees played in a west coast type style where he got the ball out quickly and he rarely took a hit. So what contributed to each of these quarterbacks getting injured? Their size and weight or the way they were used?? Does Allen stand a good chance of being injured because of how he plays? Maybe size limits what you can do because you are protecting your small qb at all costs. With Young are you limiting your offense since you don't want him running that much. The useful of all data is in the analysis which in this case was woefully inadequate. And surely not useful as a predictive tool.

You keep making.my point. If Tua weighing 220 by your numbers but small in height and frame gets ragdolled then Young is even more a risk at likely under 200 lbs. Taller bigger framed guys in the 220 range will be more resistant to getting tossed than a small guy like Young. You don't need group stats to figure that out.