MHS831

The draft makes people upset because we all develop patterns and strong opinions about who we should draft and when that plan is breached, we have to readjust. I try to look at it from the perspective of what I think they are going to do, not what I know they need to do and if they don't, they are wrong. I must admit, I was hoping for a RB later, but a RB could be the most bang for the buck. There used to be a day when they were really coveted. I don't mind drafting a RB on day 2, but I mind giving them contract #2. I just wonder if the new Guards have not already addressed the problem.

Not referring to this thread specifically, but you have people who share absolutely nothing and they are the first to go on the attack. Never positive....

As a human being, I love this guy. His enthusiasm seems beyond expected--he mentions Mullins--he is so happy to be staying home--it seems. Man I want him to be the best.

He was at the stadium the other day on the sideline, planting some shrubs and putting a porch swing outside the blue tent. OK i am done.

My Joke on another thread was if we draft the CB from Bama McInstry. We could call them the Aid Brothers--Kool and First.

After Thomas Davis' third ACL surgery, I was pounding the drum for him to move on. He played his best ball after that and was solid for many more years. You just never know.

they said they would get him weapons. As much as we said that Chubba was solid last year, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry...That should improve with linemen, however.

Ever since they started selling $39 tablets on Amazon and McDonald's got free internet, Juan has been on a tear. \

I am guessing we might have a shot at Kool-Aid or Saintrisil. I am really getting tired of last names that are difficult to pronounce//remember.

Someone will trade up for him---Tennessee (38 or so) needs DL, I think. not buying this.

Historic Success Chart (this chart is nine years old, but it shows the basic pattern of success) The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Disclaimer: I realize the first thing some of you will attempt to do is discredit the validity of this empirical study in an attempt to invalidate any conclusions that differ from those you have developed without any degree of exhaustive research or mild inquiry--comparative analysis, data collection, or coding, etc. So I suppose I should apologize in advance for providing unsubstantiated and unapproved data for our casual consumption; if you'd like, I can get the address for those at Pro Football Reference who are responsible and allow you to contact them or seek compensatory damages. If this information is still relatively accurate, the probable success rate for our WR selection yesterday should be in the 55-58% range, considering the depth of the position in this year's draft. FUN FACTS: For those of you wanting to double dip at WR: The probability of starting drops in half each round from the second to fourth, and then (strangely) jumps from 12% to 16% in round 5, dropping back down to 9% in round 6...Notice the incredibly high (compared to the others) rate of success for TEs taken in rounds 5 and 6. TEs drafted in the fifth round nearly double the chance for starting when compared to nearly every other position. In the sixth round, the chance for TEs becoming a starter is 10% higher than the next highest position--5 times higher than a sixth round LB, for example. Statements that are related to the Panther situation based on this data: If we take a C in round 2 the chances of finding a starter are about three fourths (70%), the chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%). Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (46%) to a quarter (24%). If we take a LB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are just over a half (55%). Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (50%) to a quarter (24%). Finding a starting C in the third would drop from 70% to 40%. If we take a CB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are about 50%. the chances of finding a starting C would drop from 70% to 40% in round 3. The chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%) So what scenario gives us the highest percentage of finding 2 players in rounds 2 and 3 that give us the highest likelihood for finding starters? Round 2: Center 70%, LB 55%, CB, 50% Round 3: Center 40%, LB 34%, and CB 24% Other tips DAY 3: This is when you draft the TE. Between rounds 4-6, the percentage of finding a starter drops from 33% (rd 4) to 32% (rd. 5) to 26% (rd. 6). Recommendation: Draft your TE round 5. Round 4: This is when you draft a Defensive Lineman. 37% chance of becoming a starter. That is 10% higher than the third round and 24% higher than the fifth round. Round 5: The best round for drafting WR on day 3 (16% chance of starting). Round 7: Draft a defensive back. There is a one-in-nine chance of finding a starter--11%. PROGNOSIS: Based on this draft, If we draft Center (rd 2) and ILB (rd 3) and have the best chance of producing two starters 52% If we draft LB (rd 2) and Center (rd. 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 47%. If we draft a CB (rd 2) and LB (rd 3), the chance for producing 2 starters is 42%. If we draft a LB (rd 2) and CB (rd 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 39.5%.* * in my opinion, based on the depth of this draft, this is probably what the Panthers will do-- At any rate, this is not law or current, but it does give you some ideas--hope you enjoy it.

Those would be two nice additions at CB, but a bit of overkill. Neither takes me as a nickel, but I am not sure. The knock on Kool-Aid was they played more zone at Bama than ever before....I think we could double dip at CB, WR, and/or LB. We are really thin at CB and LB.

If it were me, I would take the Center. I just do not see them doing it. I see Cooper or Saintisil.

I would love to have him--the personality alone makes him seem like a leader-Corbett is gone after this season, imo. Watch Tennessee--they may take him. I am guessing a ton of trades early in round 2--so who knows?

Some of these will fall to 65. Mark my words!!

I think there are going to be a LOT of trades in round 2.

Guessing that he joins Maye in Foxboro.

Sorry, Bear Hands--I have been working on a similar thread for the past hour--a bit different in that it discusses the teams prior to pick 39 and predicts how each might go. I think the pick will be Saintrisil CB or Cooper LB.

Here is how I see the first part of the second round going down: 33. Buffalo: They need a WR above all else, but they could use DL as well. Johnny Newton has to look like the best value here, but I expect the pick to be Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas. 34. New England: They would ideally like to add a LT here, but that would be a reach. Johnny Newton would also fill a key secondary need, but since Maye is likely to start in September, a WR might be the pick. WR Ladd McConkey Georgia seems to be a Patriot if you think about it. 35. Arizona: They need a true stopper at CB. Cooper DeJean CB Iowa, your wait should end now. This pick could be Kool Aid, and that would be more appropriate in the desert. I feel 60% confident that DeJean is a Cardinal if he survives Buffalo, but I feel about 30% confident this could be Kool Aid. 36. Washington: A team with so many needs is hard to gauge. They got their QB. This pick could be Kool Aid, but they could also use OT, WR, TE, and Edge. They have 2 picks in round 2, so they should take the best available player in a need area: Kool-Aid McInstry, CB Bama. 37. LA Chargers: Hard to say what Harbaugh will do, but he needs WR and he could go Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State. However, I think he could use a bit of DL help, and Johnny Newton DT, sitting there with a mid first round grade is too much value to pass up. They lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, however, and they must be replaced. The Chargers need multiple WRs. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State is the pick. 38. Tennessee: If Johnny Newton, DL Illinois is there, they RUN to turn in the card. DL is a huge need. However, I expect a trade up to snatch Newton before he falls this far. If he is not there, they could take Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon, giving them 2 stud OL. The pick is very important because the Titans do not have a third rounder. 39. Carolina: The Panthers definitely need CB and ILB. There is some debate over C, and there is a quality C on the board--I do not see them going that route, however. I think they love Cooper and Wilson, ILBs. I think they like CB Saintrisil. All are Dawgs. They could double dip at WR, but I doubt it here at 39--with 2 LBs on the board and a few CBs as well, they could trade back a bit. Instead of picking a player, here is a list of Best available that seem to be fits and positions of need: EDGE Marshawn Kneeland. C Jackson Powers-Johnson CB Enis Rakestraw LB Edgerrin Cooper LB Payton Wilson CB T J Tampa LB Junior Colson CB Max Melton CB Mike Saintrilsil CB Kamari Lassiter DT Brandon Fisk WR Ja’Lynn Polk WR Jalen McMillan WR Troy Franklin WR Dez Walker WR Roman Wilson WR Brenden Rice WR Malachai Corley

Yes. Canales is smart enough to know that his first task is changing the culture. Negative people thrive in a negative culture--he has to deal with that first. Moldy people do not thrive in sunlight.

I see what you are saying. However, I do not see how paying a QB who has never really taken his team to the promise land $50m per season for 2 years is a wise move.

Here is something we can all agree on---there are people who come to the Huddle to bitch when the Panthers do not pick the player they wanted. In defending their emotional (as opposed to logical or truthful) rant, they say something rather shallow or ignorant. It is obvious that they have not considered all perspectives, but they then spend several hours defending what they said during their rant to avoid appearing to be wrong. Newsflash: Nobody is right and nobody is wrong. You chose to take the negative path and you fight those who are more positive. I can say this--Legette is statistically identical to Harrison Jr. right now.

Nope. Best case scenario for Atlanta is that their 2024 first round draft pick never sees the field until they are deciding on his fifth-year option. Or he could play well in pre season and they could get a first rounder and some change for him in a trade--he is nothing but insurance at this point.

The Raiders got screwed out of Penix. That could be losing--here is the question: Do they take Rattler today?

the Cardinals also got Darius robinson, the DE from Missouri. Agree on all counts. The Atlanta pick--if Cousins goes down, you look smart. If not, you are making a decision of a fifth year option for a QB who has not played. Then you have an inexperienced QB wanting fair market value for his services. The Birds are going to have a TON of cap hit on the QB position alone. Here is the kicker--Penix will be 24 next month--and the Falcons, if all goes as planned, will ice him for 4 years before he starts a game.