MHS831

Fan base is excited. A black left-handed QB named Michael. Never happened before--I don't think.

I see that perspective, but there are some glaring differences. At that time, the QB in Green Bay was entrenched or proven and Love was the 26th pick of the first round--not the 8th. Picking him at 8 was a reach, and people in Green Bay thought picking love at 26 was a bit of a reach (I recall many wondering if he would be a first or second rounder). Cousins is new--has not even met his teammates. This will impact the locker room differently. Since the fans are not that attached to familiar as the Cheeseheads were to Rodgers, Cousins will have a bad game and the controversy will begin. For that reason, I am not sure they did anything but use a first round pick to weaponize their fan base against the QB they just paid $100m in guaranteed money. That did not happen in Green Bay--it will happen in Atlanta. Popcorn is out.

Seems you are dealing with a Grade 4 self proclaimed football deity. His armor deflects facts, logic, and all forms of probability. He is here to stretch the boundaries of his friendship circle, one that is much like what Locusts do to crops. Good luck with this one, but beware. They make you dumber if you engage with them. Do not breathe his air--he is not contagious, he just needs to get it to his brain before it goes from code red to full shut down.

Looks like we are getting some "post draft" Nostradamus input from people who just started an account to help us understand. I forgot what you call those people on the internet---are they "unselfish informants of fact to help us temper expectations?" There has to be a different name for them--I don't know, but I believe every word and with every unsupported post they change my mind completely!!! Thanks new Huddlers with enhanced football acumen!!

So what are your credentials? This contradicts what Smitty says and I know his.

I agree, but that is the widely held "unspoken rule." Just to give the matter more perspectives than ours--I see it as an investment for next year--part of the current long term plan. When negotiating, however, people want it NOW and it has that value now. But we wanted it for 2025, so it will have second round value to us. If I were making a trade and the Seahawks offered a second right now and the Rams offered a second the following year, of course--all things equal--the Seahawk offer is the better offer because I can use it immediately. It could be that these GMs value now more than next season because their jobs are on the line now--if they do not get results, the second rounder belongs to the next GM--I don't know--but to your point, the player is going to be the same player--the value is not on the talent, it is on the timing of the talent. Just spitballing.

Here is how it breaks down: Rams trade us pick 52 (380 pts) and pick 152 (29.8--- 30 points rounded, totaling 410 points) for pick 39 (510) points. So basically, the 2024 draft trade was Rams give us 410 points for 510 points--a difference of 100 points. Panthers give Rams 510 points. Rams give Panthers 410 points (2nd and 5th) in 2024 If the Rams win the Super Bowl in 2024, they would still give the Panthers the 64th pick, or 270 points. Worst case scenario for the Panthers is the get a total of 680 points of value for the 510 points they gave the Rams. The difference is 170 points. If the Rams finish 2024 like they did 2023, the Panthers will receive 380 points in 2025. That means the Panthers get about 790 points for 510 points, a difference of 280 points. If the Rams have the worst record in the NFL in 2024, they would give the Panthers 580 more points than the 410 already given--990 total points for a 510 point pick value. The difference is 440 points. But you have to remember, future draft picks have a value of one round less than the current draft year. It is like an investment of a 2024 third rounder that will mature into a second rounder in a year. So if you want to see how much we bested the Rams, you have to take that into consideration. If you want to do that, then you have to weigh the trade using a current third rounder and not a second rounder. Panthers: 510 points for pick 39 Rams: 600 points: 380 points for 2024 pick 52 and 30 points for pick 152. Third round value in 2024: 190 points. That is the equivalent of having the Rams throw in an additional early fourth round selection on top of the deal. So it depends on how you look at it--to me, getting the 2025 second rounder was so important, I might have agreed to much less to get it.

This is good stuff. I will add that he was supposedly under the care of the Cowboys' doc and Jerry Jones wanted Brooks--so he must have a glowing endorsement in terms of recovery.

Ah. Dumbshittery.

Excellent. I think BC is also the emergency 3rd string swing T, but maybe he needs to focus on C considering Corbett could be gone by 2025. The only people I have seen concerned about center are the experts and fans--they seem to be content here, but they did sign a C in UDFA. I think they view Corbett as a seasoned veteran who has the ability to function as a C. In fact, his college coach felt that is where he'd play in the NFL...I dunno. I think Willie Drew (UDFA) could surprise you and take a CB spot. Probably has a 30% chance. Jamison almost made the Niner's roster in 2022, and he was decent here. He is only 24-25 years old, so with Drew, we have depth. Jamison should compete with Hill for the Nickel duties, and maybe Drew could play behind Horn and Smith-Wade to be the big nickel. With the way nickel is used, we could carry 6 CBs. Dane will start across from Horn and Hill as the nickel. His spot is not secured. I wonder if we keep Jammie Robinson on the roster--but you went with probabilities here, as you should. Thurman (DT) played surprisingly well last season and he should stay a backup. Tuttle may need to be moved to DE-I don't know. I use PFF not because it is an exact science--it is somewhat subjective and misleading at times--but it is the most accurate attempt to evaluate performance available to us. I think Ray is 26, so he should be performing at a higher level--he is basically in the bottom third, along with Shy Tuttle. At OLB, Barno outperformed DJ Johnson but got fewer snaps. Both should be safe this year, behind Wonnum and Clowney. Leota played in 8 games and was on nearly half of the special teams plays, but he got snaps at Edge as well, earning an impressive rating in limited play. He may be back on the PS at the beginning of the season, but he held the edge better than anyone else, imo. I have no idea what to think about Chaisson, but after 3 seasons, it is time to perform at a high level or get out of football. If he performs, the former first rounder COULD team with Wonnum, Barno, Johnson, and Leota to be a decent edge group. 2023 PFF Grades - Defense POS Player Grade POS Rank Snaps % Snaps DI Derrick Brown 90.1 4th of 130 940 89% DI Nick Thurman 63.4 48th of 130 367 35% DI LaBryan Ray 54.6 84th of 130 355 34% DI Shy Tuttle 52.9 91st of 130 549 52% Edge Amari Barno 64.0 NA 188 20% Edge Eku Leota 65.6 NA 77 15% Edge DJ Johnson 50.4 NA 231 22% CB Dane Jackson 64.5 NA xxx 50% CB Jaycee Horn 84.1 NA 276 26% CB Troy Hill 62.4 73rd of 127 494 47% S Xavier Woods 80.3 12th of 95 796 75% S Sam Franklin 58.0 NA 289 27%

About Wilson-yes, he played a sensational season at NCSU in 2023. He may never have another injury. But if you draft him, you must always have a suitable replacement ready to go. You might carry 5 ILBs instead of 4, for example. You must be able and ready to adjust your game plan...I realize that is the case for all of these players---heck, the Colts drafted a player who was told he would never play football again, but with Wilson, I would struggle for peace of mind. I had the same insecurity about Thomas D after his third ACL--and he turned out fine. I just saw so many players get injured in college and it changes you mentally and physically. How long until age slows Payton through his injury? He is 23 now, after 2 NFL seasons, what will be the impact? I am sure they have these answers, but he scared me. Regardless, I thought he could be our pick at #39. The fact that so many teams passed him by means something. I should also note that Ian Rappaport said that Wilson had a lingering left shoulder issue that was not repaired during surgery--he wears a brace that limits range of motion. LBs need their shoulders, and he probably takes pain killers before and after games and practices to help cope. Eventually, it mentally catches up to you. In college, they would give us cortisone shots and we were fine--until they wore off. Is that happening? Although the teams cannot administer those kinds of drugs any longer, players who want a payday can get them. Conspiracy theory? Yeah, prolly, but I played in a different age. Still, the mental impact of a lingering injury or condition is in your brain, and your brain's primary job is to protect you.

If Morgan thought he had someone with NFL experience still under contract who has been preparing and practicing to play center as he plays guard right beside him, and he knows that BC and Cade Mays (Who was quoted during an interview: "I feel like I know the playbook better. I've been playing the majority (at) right guard and center, so I feel comfortable at those spots." ) While not ideal, I am guessing that they had to consider DL, CB, WR, LB, TE, and RB bigger needs. I get it. So in the draft, we probably are going to get the most bang for our buck by drafting WR, RB, DL, TE, LB x 2, and CB.

Since I live on the edge, I will make some bold predictions. You may know me as the guy who got the player and the team correct during my first round mock draft 8 times. That is a 25% of perfection, baby. Without further ado do: Undrafted signees that will make the 53-man roster: Willie Drew CB Virginia State. 6 foot CB who ran a 4.46 at the combine and had six picks last season. With Horn and Jackson at starting positions and Hill and Smith Wade at Nickel, Drew and Bootle will be the reserve CBs. Jalen Coker, WR Holy Cross. 6' 1" and 210lb WR who can play any WR position. He had a 42.5" vertical and a 1.52 Ten yard split. Broad jump as nearly 10' 8". Great hands, excellent route runner (entire tree), and successful with an inferior QB. 1950 yards last 2 seasons and over 100 receptions when everyone knew he was getting the ball. I personally think they would have drafted him but they calculated that he would become an undrafted free agent and they already had a deal on the table for him. (my theory). He has to beat out TMJ, Smith-Marsette, or Mingo to get the job. I see the WR Corps: Johnson, Legette, Thielen, Mingo, Coker, and the sixth guy (Smith-Marsette or TMJ. Undrafted signees that could make the Practice Squad: Andrew Raym, C Oklahoma. Centers on the PS are two dimensional, and the Panthers need one since their current centers are talking online classes in "NFL Hiking". Raym would be the third C in the depth at the position, and a third center allows you to run offensive reps faster at practice with three groups (assuming we get a third QB). NFL Combine reports call him a "tough guy" with size who needs to work on some issues. Sounds like a dawg. Christian Duffie, OT/OG, Kansas State: The scheme fit that best fits Duffy's strengths is a zone scheme with quick passes in an RPO/Possession, or heavy run Offense. That sounds about right for the Canales system. He should be a good project for the practice squad, but he is 24 years old. Sam Pinckney, TE Coastal Carolina. Can't beat the press man coverage, runs poor routes, slower than CBs. However, he catches contested balls and is 6' 4", 220. If the Panthers can add 20 pounds, he might get a look at TE by 2025. However, he is 25 years old, so his window is going to close by next year. Popo Aumavae NT, Oregon. At 6'3" 315, he plays with good arm extension, strong hands, and balance. He hustles to sideline (like Brown). He had 3 sacks his SR year--his 7th season (He will be 26 in January 2025). I would keep Popo on the practice squad for a season or two to give depth. Now look at the draft from the perspective that we added a CB and WR--two areas of need--with the undrafted free agents. We added a second rounder for 2025. We got a first round WR, the best RB in the draft, the second-best pass catching TE in the draft, a dawg LB, a versatile CB, a defensive lineman, and a LB. Pretty solid draft that followed a pretty solid free agency period.

We would have 3 people on the offense named Sanders. Deal breaker.

My final first round prediction was difficult--thanks to the lack of expected trading early on and the Birds picking Pinix. I got 8 correct, however, in the area of matching the player with the team. That means I got 24 wrong. I did hear the hostess praising Daniel Jeremiah on NFL Network for getting 9 correct in 2023. This year, however, the first three or four picks were pretty set. Here are the correct picks from my second draft of my first round mock: Correct Player and Team: 8 1. Chicago Bears Pick: Caleb Williams QB, USC (Hit the lob over the plate out of the park. Anyone who missed this one should just stop mocking) 2. Washington Commanders Pick: Jayden Daniels QB, LSU (Another freebie. About a 90% chance this would be the pick) 3. New England Patriots Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC (Did not fall for the pre-draft JJ McCarthy nonsense. Those kinds of moves get you fired. I am rolling. Nothing can stop me now!!) 4. Minnesota Vikings (Trade) Pick: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan (While the Vikings moved up to 10 and got JJ McCarthy instead of 4,, the team and the player are accurate--missed on the trade. I will take it.) 6. New York Giants Pick: Malik Nabors, WR, LSU (Correct. The Giants pass on QB and take the WR). 9. Chicago Bears Pick: Rome Odunze, WR Washington (Bingo. This was pretty easy, but I did not know about the Williams-Odunze friendship when I picked this.) 25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) Pick: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona. (Correct!!! I am on fire again) 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Graham Barton, C, Duke (Correct!! I am blazing)

The OL is the most important unit on the team. Full Stop. They do not depend on the QB like the QB depends on them. Without the OL, the punter stays busy, the Defense stays tired, the RBs stay injured, The WRs get open too late, and the QB busts. Having said that, we need a plan to keep them stocked and not have to fill Guard positions that average $35m (together) per season in free agency. We need to build through the draft so that we have 2 players on first contracts starting on the OL at any given time.

I see it like this: Can Coker beat out Terrace Marshall Jr? Can Pinkey beat out Smith-Marsette (since Legette can return kicks) or Jonathan Mingo? I see Pinkney going to the PS for a season, but he will be pulled up if there is an injury--even if we stay healthy, in 2025, there will probably be two vacancies. Not sure what Johnson is going to want $$$$, and Thielen will probably be done or cut. Pinkney could then compete for a job, and with his height, he gives you that Tall red zone WR. Worth keeping on the PS at the least.

That was a rags to riches to rags story if I have ever seen one. He got here and played behind Pat Elflein for a while and then got the starting gig and we loved him. Then last season they had him flanked by 7 different guards on each side of him and he struggled, so they cut him loose. Musta been more to it than we know. He would have been a decent backup. Maybe not a good fit for the new offense?

In fairness, the couch belongs to Rent A Center, but if he makes thirty-one more weekly payments, it is his free and clear.

He has good hands, and something that is easily lost--this kid is 6' 1" 220. He gets in position to make contested catches--something he had to do because his QB was not accurate and his timing was off. That (to me) is what makes him a dawg. And you are exactly right--I would put him behind Thielen in the slot and let him learn. I seriously believe that a second WR was a luxury for us because we had so many other needs, but they practically promised him a roster spot (see salary) if he goes undrafted. This guy will be awesome in 2025 when Thielen is probably gone. Not only will he earn a roster spot, but he will become a familiar face for some time--based on what I am seeing on the video.