MHS831

But you are applying your own rationale as some unstated fact, when it is totally veering from your original point--about some 10 year vision which leads to retirement. I simply Googled the oldest coaches in the NFL to see if there is something to your supposition that you retire before age 70. The three that popped up were all hall of famers. I am not cherry picking Hall of Famers to compare to FR, as you seem to want to spin this. Fact: The three oldest coaches in the NFL--at the age you seem to view as a horrible negative, are--today--some of the most successful coaches in the NFL--at their current age. HOF is for the past--I was pointing out what they are doing now. Frankly (no pun intended) I would rather have a coach approaching retirement with my team who has been in the game for a good while than some young prodigy cutting his teeth so that he can go to a larger market. So no, I did not pick the list of HOF coaches--the oldest coaches simply fit that description. And if they retired or contemplated retirement--I have no idea what you mean by that point. As I pointed out, the average NFL coach who has been to a Super Bowl lasts 4 years. So to worry about 10 is in itself illogical.

For next time: Please use APA formatting, Headings and subheadings properly, in-text citations, and a bibliography page. Seriously, appreciate it.

Your argument was about age, not credentials. These are the oldest. showed you that the average coach in the NFL who makes the super bowl lasts 69 games--4 seasons, in other words. And yes, 3 HOF coaches still going strong in their 60s and 70s. That IS my point.

I do not get the age thing. Pete Carroll is 71 and still going strong. Bill Belichick is 70. Andy Reid is 64. Those are some pretty strong teams. "The average coach since 1990 (which, of course, includes Super Bowl-winning coaches) lasts about 69 games, which equates to just over four seasons with the team. Coaches who made the Super Bowl, but didn't win, lasted about 64 games, and coaches who never made the Super Bowl in their tenure lasted just under 60 games." ---the internet

Leaking news like that is dangerous and should be prevented. Coaches have egos. Nobody wants to be the second choice, I would think. That could be why others did not agree to be interviewed here. They let it be known that they liked Johnson. Bad idea They let it be known that they were looking for an offensive-minded coach. Bad idea, when you have interviewed defensive-minded coaches.

Question: If Derrick Carr has the option of turning down a trade, why wouldn't he? Is it his $32m salary? If I think I can get that as a free agent from a team, then I take the negotiations away from the Raiders and pick my destination. If he'd rather be in Washington than New Orleans, he can then approach Washington as a free agent. I would want my new team to have all of their draft picks. Example: The Commanders offer to trade for Carr and the Raiders accept. Carr keeps his salary. Washington loses 2, day-2 draft picks. The Raiders now have the capital to move up in the draft and take a QB (They have 9 picks as it is right now). However, if Carr rejects all offers, then approaches Washington as a free agent, negotiating that by rejecting their trade, he saved them a second and an third round draft pick. They would then gladly give him the salary they were willing to pay during the trade, saving the picks to improve his new team. How is my logic flawed here?

I commented on your picks above--you put some thought into this. Despite my comments, here are my guesses: Brady-retires or goes to Atlanta or Baltimore (if Jackson leaves). Atlanta is a great fit because they have a good OL. They have a QB on a rookie deal that could learn for a season under Brady. If they added a weapon or two in the passing game, I see Atlanta being attractive to Brady. If Jackson leaves Baltimore, Brady becomes a Raven. Jackson-I just see this working out in Baltimore. Jackson and the Ravens have both stated that he will return, but Ian Rappaport says those watching Jackson are not so sure. Stay tuned. Lance-I think the 9ers have to like what they have in Purdy (This makes me mad because I mocked him all year in the fifth/sixth round) and they will probably not have Jimmy G back. I think I would trade Lance, but his stock is down. Maybe Saleh likes him from his time in SF. I say Lance either stays or is traded to the Jets. Rodgers-He stays in Green Bay. He is just getting his offseason ego boost, wanting people to beg him to stay, etc. Jimmy G-Maybe the Jets take him for the same reason I provided about Lance, but the market is much better for Jimmy G right now. I see New Orleans and Atlanta in play here. I am going to guess that he might go Atlanta if Brady retires or goes to Baltimore. Carr-We should know this one right around the Super Bowl. Carr can turn down a trade, which is an interesting twist to the plot. New Orleans is my first impulse, but all they have in the draft this year is a second and third rounder--Do they want Carr, his veteran salary, and no picks until day three of the draft? That leaves the Commanders, my second guess, but the likely choice if you consider assets. They would keep their first and be able to trade the second and third--big difference--and they may be more stable than New Orleans right now. In my opinion, the New Orleans window is closing. So, final answer: Washington

I think Atlanta goes QB--they caught some heat for drafting a TE in a "QB rich" draft--rumor has it they would have taken Lance if the rumor that SF traded up for Jones were true. It worked out, except maybe they wish they would have drafted Fields? I dunno. However, the Falcon fans were not happy at the time. In hindsight, getting Lance would have been much worse--if what we know about him remains the story.

Good thread, GOAT. This needed to be said. I would also check out teams drafting after us in position to trade up--Washington, New Orleans, for example. If I get some time, I will estimate what it would cost each team to leapfrog us. I would say that the first and third picks are going to be defensive studs-- I have seen mocks where Indy moves to #1 and then Carolina moves to #4, allowing Chicago the ninth pick with a ton of other selections. If I am the Bears, I do that.

Names to watch: Dave Aranda and Stan Drayton. #ThePipeline

To me, that is the ideal situation for a young coach.

Aside from the situation in New England, when has giving the coach complete oversight been successful? Not a critical question--I really do not know the answer.

Heck, if there are some young proven coaches who will not require $20m and 2 first rounders, I say go for it. Look at the following: Shanahan, Sirianni, McVay, Z. Taylor, Saleh--impressive. All 43 or younger. Heck, lifelong coordinators like Daboll, McDermott, and Campbell (all in their late 40s) are impressive so far. I would say that the NFL has changed more in the past 10 years than any other decade in its history--maybe an older coach is not the best answer.

AKA Joe Brady?

I am under that impression.

I would like to see people leave this thread for news or comments specifically based on informed speculation. In other words, if you want to attack and get into arguments with other Huddlers, go away. Having said that, I think the longer we drag things out, the more I like the chances that the next head coach is still in the playoffs.

Exactly. The media is a leverage tool right now--if people take this for Gospel, they are going to wind up in Hell. Like watching certain news channels and believing every word.

He has bust written all over him--a Carson Wentz, maybe a Josh Allen--but Josh Allen is the exception, not the rule. I do not predict who will succeed at QB and who will not, based on college tape. I literally cannot tell. I was very high on Luck, but I was not high on Cam. I was high on Jamarcus Russell, not high on Brady Quinn. I laughed when KC traded up for Mahomes. When it comes to QBs, I am not the guy to be speaking up. I did read that there are some who love Levis--have him the second-rated QB in the draft. Here is my take, right now: I would wait to see if the Raiders cut Carr. Sign him on a cheapish deal, if possible. There are only about 6 teams in need of a QB, and the Panther job should be ideal for a free agent. If that does not happen, wait to see which of the top 4 QBs drops to 9. If no top QB drops, there will be a stud available. Take the stud, draft a TE.

There is this minor detail that could become an issue as the draft draws closer. Instead of using the pick to hire Payton, use a second rounder to move up in the draft. Take Levis...Reich is supposed to be the perfect coach for him...(not an endorsement--I simply read an article, enhancing my overall knowledge). Just throwing it out there. And since you asked (nobody), I am not as high on the first two rated QBs and I am warming to #3 (Levis) and #4 (Richardson). So there is that.

Each game the pressure goes up. I think I might go with the veteran in the NFC title game and the SB--Purdy gets a "That'll do, Purd."

I dunno--who gives you the best chance? I stay with the hot hand, personally. Wasn't Wentz good to go when Foles got hot in Philly a few years back?

This is an interesting discussion--how much of his success was of his own doing? That is the question--nobody really knows.

That is what I am saying. Cam was QB for less time and did better (except was robbed in the Super Bowl, but should have won that if it were not for a bad RT (Remmers) and OC--(Shula). Just speculating for fun--who knows? Payton got robbed by the refs one year--maybe 2.

Name a great coach who never had a good QB. Name a great QB who never had a great coach. To me, the best coaches today are in Seattle (Pete won with Wilson, who is a different QB now), SF (Garrapolo? Purdy?) and maybe (too early to tell) Detroit and Miami. They won despite their QBs. Payton had one of the best of all time and he had a good GM. He won 1 super bowl. Should he have done better?

The bottom line? What do we know about Payton as a coach? He had 1 year without Brees (2021) and that did not go well. Payton really did not with Brees. He used him well--but what did NO do with Winston? Brees' first year in New Orleans was Payton's first as a coach--2006. Brees left in 2020--Payton left in 2021. He did not really develop Winston, but he sorta was creative with Taysom Hill (because he did not have a QB?) and since had a few NFL nomads like Teddy, Dalton, etc. So Payton's career was directly tied to Drew Brees. When Brees retired, Payton stayed for a season and got out. His record was 152-89-0. So, aside from Bountygate, what do we really know about him? He had a good GM. Can Payton sail the ship with no Brees? (see what I did there?) The more I dig, the more I think, "fool's gold" (see, the Saints and their fans are fools and they have gold helmets. I am on fire)