MHS831

Are smaller players more injury-prone? There are many ideas about what makes a player more injury prone, and many people point to size as a possible culprit. Namely, some people claim that smaller players are more likely to get injured playing football because their bodies are less suited to handle NFL collisions. This is at least a fairly straightforward question to study, as originally done here. However, we should separate this by position group, as we saw in Part 1 of this series that different position groups have different rates of injury, and more mobile positions (RB, WR, DB, LB) tend to have the highest rate of injury, while less mobile positions (OL, QB) tend to have the lowest rate of injury. The overall injury rate by position is summarized in the table below. Remember than an Athlete Exposure (AE) is defined as a game played or a practice session in which a player was listed as a full participant. Injury Rate By Position Position Injury Rate per 1000 AEs (Standard Error) RB 20.7 (0.5) DB 17.4 (0.3) WR 17.1 (0.4) LB 17.1 (0.3) TE 16.9 (0.5) DL 15.1 (0.3) OL 12.8 (0.3) QB 8.6 (0.4) ST 4.4 (0.3) Total 15.1 (0.1) Clearly, if we just looked at injury rate vs weight, it would appear that smaller players are more likely to be injured, but that is only because the most injured position groups happen to have smaller, more mobile players. Having established this baseline, we can then plot the injury rate vs weight for each of these position groups. For the most part, it actually looks like smaller players are less likely to be injured, not more likely. However, each graph has a slightly different pattern that is worth describing. DB is perhaps the easiest plot to interpret, and shows a clear increasing risk of injury based on size. DL shows a similar pattern, but the effect is not as large and it is overall a much flatter plot, indicating size is not strongly correlated to injury for DL. The up-down-up shape of the curve may be due to conflation of DEs and DTs. LB actually shows a slightly decreased risk of injury for larger LBs up until the heaviest weight category, which has significantly increased risk. OL shows a clearly increasing risk of injury based on size, except for the highest weight category, which has greatly decreased risk of injury (this may be the threshold at which OL can simply win with size). QB also shows a clearly increasing injury rate based on size. RB shows an increasing injury rate based on size up to a point, then a decreasing injury rate. This pattern may again be because two slightly different position groups (HBs and FBs) are being lumped in the same category together. TE also shows an increasing injury rate up to a point, then a decrease. It may be due to larger TEs being used primarily as blockers rather than pass catchers. WR shows a strong correlation between increased size and increased rate of injury, although the very smallest weight category of WR also had an increased rate of injury. Overall, these data seem to indicate that smaller players are actually a bit less prone to injury within a given position group, although usage seems to play a much bigger role than size in determining injury rate. My big takeaway from this is not that teams should target smaller or larger players, but rather just that teams should not assume that smaller players are more prone to injury, as injury history is a much better predictor of future injury than size. https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/6/22/18658887/understanding-injuries-in-the-nfl-part-3

I can say that my needle bounces back and forth between Young and Stroud--I simply think that you do not refuse to draft the best overall talent because you are afraid he might get hurt. Analyzing an injury history is one thing, but predicting the future will get you in trouble. It will come down to this: Which is the best fit and which is the most coachable. I think we are considering variables that will not ultimately determine the outcome. For example, who won that pickup basketball game between Stroud and McCown? Why is that not news? I think I veered off topic.

Here is one way of looking at one example of how athleticism is not that big of a factor-processing is. 2 QBs were taken in the 2022 draft. Their 2021 NCAA stats: 1. The athletic QB, one of the top 4 QBs, was furious when he was not drafted in round 1. In college, he had a 62% completion rate (nine percentage points above AR 15), throwing 27 TDs vs. 12 Interceptions against lesser competition. He had 878 yards rushing. Fun to watch. Had a great combine/pro day. He fell to the third round, but went to a playoff team with a chance to develop into an NFL QB. 2. The cerebral, experienced QB with limited athletic ability (compared to the likes of the first QB) had a 71.7 completion percentage (nearly 10% better than the athletic QB and nearly 19% better than AR15), threw for over 3000 yards, throwing 19 TDs vs. 8 Interceptions against better competition. He ran for zero yards. He had a 3.8 GPA and scored very high on the S2 Cognition score. This QB was not upset that he was not drafted in round 1, but was elated when he was drafted in round 7 by a playoff team, with the last pick of the draft. 2022 Pro Comparisons: The Athlete: 0 TDs, 3 Ints. Per game-34 yards passing, 15.4 rushing yards per game. Mr. Irrelevant: 13 TDs, 4 Ints. Per game-152.7 yards passing, 1.4 rushing yards per game. The point? Go to combines and pro days and be amazed at the athleticism if you want, but be warned that processing is more important. This also relates to LBs and DBs with great 40 times but it takes them longer to diagnose the play. A lot of people are saying that AR15 has the biggest upside. Does he though? What about his statistics tell you that? Someone will take him thinking Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, but they battled injuries and were not accurate passers, for the most part. The most upside is a QB who is going to make himself better in the film room, not the weight room. A player who knows where everyone is supposed to be and can process a WR being open before the break--a player who can change the play at the LOS without freaking out the coach. Yes, athletic QBs are great on fourth and goal, and they often use their legs to atone for their indecision in the pocket--and they make the highlight reels. Bryce Young, apparently, blew away the S2 Cognition test. I think I read Stroud was up there too. But look at these QBs--who has the best body to be successful? AR15, followed by Levis. Who has the best mind to be successful? Young, followed by Stroud. Who had the better stats in college--the stud athletes or the cerebral pocket passers? Now go and pick AR15 with the number 1 pick and see how long you remain employed.

1. The combine rationale: The timing of the trade---That is when Fitterer and Poles had the opportunity to meet. 2. NFL teams are not in the business of selling Jerseys. Winning brings in the fans, not the best athlete playing QB. I am fairly certain that Stroud or Young, if successful (and they are most likely to be successful earlier than the boom or bust Richardson) will sell a ton of Jerseys and Tepper will not care. 3. If the coaching staff thinks they can make any of these QBs work, they do not trade up to #1-they trade up to #3. 4. Assuming the Josh McCown video theory were accurate, wouldn't NOT discussing AR15 be an obvious giveaway wherein showing his video tape with the others would hide the fact that they like him? The consensus around the league is that Carolina is a good landing spot for a young QB. The OL is in tact, they did not want to trade Moore, but they have done all they can to address WR with veterans; our TE is a veteran. All signs indicate a Day 1 starter, not some super athlete who has one season of starting in college under his belt with a 54% completion percentage. That makes no sense. Do not let the flashing lights, bells, and whistles fool you--he is a great athlete, but not a great QB.

You deserve your right to your opinion, and unlike some Huddlers, you provide your reasons for your thinking. I am sorry you were called an idiot for thinking this--our moderators should not tolerate that, according to what they have said in the past. Having said that, I think this is a stretch.

Writers get paid to write. And if you put something like this out there 3 weeks before the draft, people will forget about it. However, if for some reason we draft AR, this writer gets immediate street cred. Would a new coach who is building a roster to compete right now want a project? If he likes the skill set, and we have a ton of cap room, why not pursue L.Jackson? No--I doubt a new coach would join a franchise and go out on a limb like this--

Pulled this from Walter today--he is usually missing a few: Anthony Bradford^, Offensive Tackle, LSU (COM, PRI) (Probably projects to G in the NFL---I would like this pick in round 4 or after--not sure he will be there) Julius Brents, Cornerback, Kansas State (COM) (most teams like this CB) Charlie Jones, Wide Receiver, Purdue (PRI) (I see this as a solid signing if we do it) Will Levis^, Quarterback, Kentucky (PRI, PRO) (Why waste time on Levis?) Jonathan Mingo, Wide Receiver, Ole Miss (PRI) (Strong WR candidate that could be a better pro than college player) B.J. Ojulari, Defensive End, LSU (PRI) I see this as a strong possibilty--also watch Felix from Kansas State) Bumper Pool, Linebacker, Arkansas (PRI) (Panthers will sign this guy--maybe as an undrafted free agent) Joey Porter Jr., Cornerback, Penn State (PRI) (unless we wheel and deal, this ain't happening) Anthony Richardson^, Quarterback, Florida (COM, PRI, PRO) (3 contacts---doing our homework on AR15) Drew Sanders, Linebacker, Arkansas (COM) (Possibly at 39 if Luvu goes to Edge) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State (PRI) (only if we trade up a lot) C.J. Stroud^, Quarterback, Ohio State (PRI, PRO) Bryce Young^, Quarterback, Alabama (PRI, PRO) Chandler Zavala, Offensive Guard, N.C. State (PRI)(I have seen him as early as round 3--80" wingspan at 322 lbs--nice)

I still do not see him in that role--maybe he would--but when you say "there are not 32 qbs in the NFL (referring to starters) better than me" and then 2 weeks later, say, "Can I please play behind someone I think that I am better than?" it lacks sincerity--but Cam cannot control the fact that his alpha personality and past will add pressure to the starter--even if he is not intending to do that. Maybe if he were willing to take on a Taysom Hill role? I dunno

I am not confident that Houston would be willing to deal, but I can say that I am not sure the Panthers would do it if the reason they moved up was for one guy. Young is a better QB--and he was 5'10" and 190 or so while playing at Bama vs. Georgia and the rest of the SEC. Stroud is bigger and he has a strong case to be the #1 overall pick--but until Houston calls, this is a mute point. Personally, I like Young the person--the ambassador for the franchise--more than Stroud. I love his brain and I think he will "play safe". Stroud? I love his accuracy, size, and potential.

Why not have 53 Shades of Blue? Yeah, baby. Big Problem: "Hi Friend. NFL Jerseys at cheap prices. You no like blue cowor? Ordah deese glasses. $23 dowwar each jersey if you buy 10. Huwweee. These won't last fowever."

Close thread. Cam has now found a team. 0 (Last Cam Joke-promise. I just think he is too much of an Alpha to backup any QB--maybe I am wrong--he is a very good person--genuine--so maybe he has been humbled enough to serve in that capacity. )

In a weird twist of fate, James DiGiacomo, the "kid from the Play 60 Commercial" has asked Cam to add his name with the 3 rookies he lists here. He is now eligible for the draft.

I blame Rivera--who is still coaching in this league after abusing Cam--maybe that is the only way you can use a player like Newton, but he gave us 8 years of high-quality play and there were times, in my opinion, Rivera could have put on the breaks with him--RR is nothing without Newton and Newton knows it, which is why Rivera's team (Howell) is a bit odd.

Are you serious?!!! It can also MAKE the jersey--like the Tampa Bay Alarm Clock Numbers---telling fans its time to wake up!! (seriously, I laughed my ass off when I saw them)

The silver reminded me of a combination between the Raiders, Cowboys, and Patriots....I am not fans of those teams.

It is--and we did not seem to have that concern when Cam was plowing over LBs on third and 8 for a first down-(I did, but I was called a racist and Cam Hater). I worry too--dang if they put his brain in AR15's body--I would know which QB I want.

You make solid points and argue well, and we are usually on the same page--I prefer Stroud optically, but mentally, I prefer Young--very torn. But I would not be concerned about Stroud's football IQ if he were not compared to a little Einstein.

Fool me once, shame on you----by the way, how much more humiliating could my profile pic be?

When you are small and playing in the biggest, most prestigious program in modern college football, you are aware of it. Here is why I don't think Young will be as injury prone as we all think. Bryce processes very quickly--the average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball in 2.4-2.7 seconds. In college, Young's throws were 0.2 second quicker than average. Furthermore, 87% of his passes were catchable. (Stroud, known for his accuracy, boasts that 85% of his passes were catchable.) He rates a 7/7 in the areas of "poise" and "clutch" (Stroud was a 6/7 in both categories) and, according to Greg Cosell, "Young is a high-level prospect with a PhD in the nuances, details and subtleties of the position, starting with his pre-snap process and an outstanding feel for the game, intuitively understanding where everyone is on the field and often moving to find space to deliver the ball and make spectacular second reaction plays." He is tough and smart in the pocket. While his size is a legitimate concern, Young's intelligence, fast release, movement in the pocket, and the NFL rules that protect QBs might make his size concerns minimal. Furthermore, he runs a 4.52 40, so he has a degree of escapability. Cam Newton seemed like a tank with a cannon for an arm running down the field, but his size and hesitation in the pocket proved to be his downfall---he was injured based on the wear and tear---so a big QB getting hit a lot might be more dangerous than a small QB getting hit once in a while. I am glad this decision is not mine. Young: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/bryce-young-49632/ Stroud: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/c-j-stroud-49609/overview/ Based on these comparisons, Young is slightly better than Stroud in the areas they chose to measure. Is it enough? therin lies the dilemma.

I am seeing no indication that we are trading this pick--they will have a favorite by April 27 and they will not risk it. Just my opinion.

Funny they use the Lance / Jones comparison--not a good one at all. First, SF could have wanted Lance all along--but did not want Wilson--so they leaked they would take Jones, causing everyone to relax and not trade with NYJ for Lance--who knows? And if you think a team is willing to trade all that draft capital to move up for Lance, maybe it causes you to rethink Lance---nobody was taking Jones at #2.... Lots of strategery going on.

Yeah. We need a 6-5, 245 lb. QB---they never get hurt! (Playful sarcasm--I see your point)

Yeah, you are looking for the QB who steps up in the pros, not back or down. Jared Allen is a great example--Jalen Hurts to a degree---Stroud has that ability--probably more than Young.

I think CJ is more of a boom or bust project than Young--higher ceiling, lower floor. I see CJ somewhere between Burrow and Goff--if you take Goff's entire career. Burrow may be a bit much, but if he has the tools, I think he could be special--or not. hard to say--good question!

I can see that, but he put up some incredible numbers and was very accurate. Pickett was a bad selection because (I agree-a backup) but when you go with a first round QB, you have to give him a few years to develop as the starter-where I think you have a quicker trigger without the initial investment. I am shocked Tomlin won 9 games this past season---