MHS831

In college I knew a "Rusty Nail."

I would not be surprised to see a WR drop (Hyatt, Johnson) or CB (Forbes, Ringo).

Same thought, but I counted 5 Edge players who will be taken in the first round. On average, 8 Defensive Linemen are taken in the first round, and Dane Brugler's top 100 list confirms this, with 5 edge players and three DTs--however, I counted another 5 who I think are impact players and they are listed between picks 33 and 60: 33. Ojulari (LSU), 44. Felix (Kansas State), 46. Will McDonald (Iowa State), 47. White (Ga Tech), 58. Derrick Hall (Auburn); and 60. Foskey (Notre Dame). We have had Ojulari and Hall in for visits. An interesting point I came across in an article from a KC Chief website concerning "success rates" for positions taken in various rounds: DB: Second round: 46% success rate; third round: 24% success rate. WR: Second round: 49% success rate; third round: 25% success rate. TE: Second round 50% success rate; third round: 39% success rate. Forgetting about edge rushers because the stats did not specifically categorize 3-4 OLBs, it seems the best chances for success would be to take a WR in round 2 and a TE in round 3. However, I do not see the WR group being that great in round 2--if 5 go in round 1 (Jaxon Smith-Nj, Addison, Flowers, Hyatt, and Johnson), I see Downs as the only possible selection. I do not see there being a wide selection of CBs from which to choose in round 2 either, unless 35. Forbes or 36. Ringo drop. Therefore, I would expect the team to go Edge at 39 and maybe TE at 92 or so, based solely on these percentages and the talent that could be there at the time of the pick. If so, we are in trouble at CB and WR> It is hard to gauge edge rushers according to the info I had because they seem to be included with DL and LBs are another group. However, I think the edge rushers are deep in this draft.

Thanks. I do have too much free time--sitting in a rest home with my aunt (I am her closest relative) who is on hospice care---this is really a nice escape during the waiting.

It sure does.

I think Richardson will bust. A great athlete, but no resume. He should have played another season in college. It is one thing to think you have a first round grade, but the objective for a QB needs to be that second contract, not the first.

I heard that if Houston cannot get Young, they might trade out or take Anderson. If that is true, I see them possibly making a substantial offer to the Panthers. A few weeks ago, I thought it was silly to suggest such a trade since (in my mind) there were 2 elite QBs. As we get closer, it seems that there is Young and Stroud is on a lower level. Would you take the 2024 Houston first rounder to swap with Houston? (I know what the Stroud supporters would say, and I was one in the beginning and still like him--I think I would take that deal)

If they take the better QB, it is Young. If they take the better NFL QB in three years, ????

In the weeks prior to the draft, it can get a bit slow. So I thought I would share. I decided to analyze each position to the best of my ability. Then I wanted to develop a strategy to enter the draft, based on need. I do these kinds of things to help me see it more clearly--but I thought I would share since I went to so much trouble. I realize there will be disagreements, but I wanted to see if we are pretty much on the same page--to me, we have 5 needs we MUST address in the draft, and I would love to see us grab a TE, but I doubt we do. DEFENSE OFFENSE MHS' Ranking of Needs: Here I considered the difficulty finding a quality player at that position, the impact the expected player would have, the immediate need, and the long-term need. This gets very difficult, but I settled with the following: 1. QB. Obviously 2. Edge. As of now, Burns is the only outside threat to pressure the QB. I expect Barno to improve and we know that we have depth in Haynes, but YGM ain't a good fit or good player (so far). Coincidentally, rarely do you have a draft where you can find quality edge players in early round 2--but that is the case this year. Grab one. 3. Cornerback. Horn and Jackson have been injured quite a bit, and Jackson is coming off an injury that could rob him of his best asset--quickness. Henderson and Taylor are most famous for appearances on Mike Evans' 2022 highlight video. 4. Wide Receiver. The Panthers need a play maker, and the future needs some talent. Some will put this need in front of CB and maybe even OLB/Edge, but I do not see it that way. Chark is often injured (hopefully that is not the case here) and Thielen is reportedly getting older. We can't trust Smith or TMJ yet, but I have faith that TMJ showed signs of the light coming on last year and Smith is the player we will upgrade. 5. Offensive Line: The Panthers need solid depth at all times, especially if they are going to draft Young. Personally, I question T depth (Coleman? not sure if he is there answer there), and I think G could use another player. If we take a hybrid, I would hope for a T/G hybrid as opposed to a C/G hybrid. C (Bozeman, McCray, Mays, and Tecklenburg is covered) 6. TE. Hurst is not the long-term solution, but he should be strong in 2023. Tremble should emerge from the developmental label into a solid TE, and I am high on Ricci as a receiving TE/hback. Thomas is great as a #3 TE; he just should not start. Still, with this draft, a solid TE is likely to drop to day 3 and if that happens, you take the BPA and upgrade your TE group. Based on my assumptions, here is my draft strategy. It is 100% accurate and it is exactly what the Panthers will do. That is all. I have spoken. (Seriously--it all depends on how things shake out--I could see the Panthers taking a WR or CB with the 39th pick.) 1. Round 1, pick 1 Quarterback: Bryce or CJ 2. Round 2, pick 39 OLB/ Edge: There are many ways we can throw players at this situation, but a pure, elite pass rusher is needed to take pressure off Burns and the inside pass rush. Panthers have had known contact with Ojulari (Edge, LSU) and Hall (Edge, Auburn), which suggests possible round 2 curiosity for an Edge. NOTE: These players should last throughout the second round, so Fitterer may trade back to the end. Names to watch: BJ Ojulari, LSU; Will McDonald IV, Iowa St; Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State; Derek Hall, Auburn…. 3. Round 3, pick 93 Cornerback: This may be a bigger need than WR because our CBs are often injured and their backups are often burned. The 3-4 will allow more zone in covers 2 and 4, so maybe this is not as big a need as thought. This draft has some talent at CB, and some could fall to late day 2. The Panthers have had Kansas State CB Julius Brents in for a visit, as have many other teams. That suggests third round curiosity. Names to Watch: Brents; Turner, Michigan; Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU; Rush, South Carolina; Smith, Minnesota; Ricks, Alabama… 4. Round 4, pick 114 Wide Receiver: There are surprising names that could fall past the third round. Charlie Jones and Jonathan Mingo have had visits with the Panthers, which could suggest a WR on day 3. Names to watch: Rice, SMU; Dell, Houston; Scott, Cincinnati; Mims, Oklahoma; and Perry, Wake Forest, Jones, Purdue; and Mingo, Mississippi…. 5. Round 4, pick 132 Tight End: While the Panthers may not show (on paper) an immediate need at TE, the class is deep, and a quality TE can possibly be found at the end of round 4. Perhaps a warning that this won’t happen is the fact that the Panthers do not seem to be showing interest at this time-- No TE are known to have interacted with the Panthers to date. This could be for OL depth and not TE. Names to Watch: Schoonmaker, Michigan; Wylie, Cincinnati; Latu, Alabama… 6. Round 5, pick 145 Offensive Line: With Mays and McCray backing up Christensen, Bozeman, and Corbett, perhaps a swing T to develop is in order. A few players who are injured right now may become a day 3 value, so I am targeting people who could fall. Names to Watch: Vorhees (injured G/T), USC; Javon Foster (LT), Missouri; McLendon, (RT/G) Georgia; McFadden (T/G), Clemson; Rouse (swing T), Stanford, Anthony Bradford, OG, LSU … 7. Undrafted Free Agents Names to Watch: Bumper Pool, ILB, Oklahoma

I don't really know about these guys yet--except that I think Bradford could be a stud. Are we going to draft them late (after a trade)? Are we hoping to make connections for Undrafted free agents? It does reveal the strategy for depth. (I think Bradford projects to a G, but I am not up to date on these guys yet).

A bit of clarity based on my understanding of the OL, which could be wrong: We signed Larnel Coleman from the Dolphins Practice Squad during the season. He is a swing T, to the best of my knowledge. Because he was added like that, many of us are not aware of him or how good he is....This from NFL.com following the 2021 draft: "Durable three-year starter with experience at both tackle positions. Coleman's long arms have proven to be effective at slowing his opponent's rush momentum and he's savvy with his hands in his pass protection approach. His knee bend is average, which hinders his consistency protecting the edge in both the run and passing games. He's athletic in space and should be able to compete in all run-blocking schemes. While his pass protection is average by NFL standards, he has talent to work with and offers swing tackle potential..." McCray was developed by Campen in Houston to play center, so he can backup many positions. Here is the article: https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2021/10/23/texans-justin-mccray-credits-james-campen-transition-center/ Christensen is the backup LT---think Travelle Wharton. Mays can also play Center. Tecklenburg may be history. So we have depth--it is a bit thin. Here is how I see it LT: Ewonu, Christensen, Coleman LG: Christensen, Mays, McCray C : Bozeman, McCray, Mays RG: Corbett, McCray, Mays RT: Moton, Coleman I agree that we will probably add 2 linemen, getting the number to nine, but we have depth with 7, even after I took the liberty of cutting Tecklenburg. It is not ideal to have your LG as your primary LT backup, but if Coleman is a true swing T, we could have it covered--on paper. I see a G added late. Not sure about T if they like Coleman.

I am in favor of Young, but Stroud is a very good player, and he seems to be humble and very morally grounded. He seems smart. What about that says, "uncoachable?"

Funny how much stuff comes out about folks just before the draft. I take this with a grain of salt-- Everyone is fighting for clicks, and the more the attention turns toward the draft, the more some people are going to exploit some minor comment or point taken out of context. From what I have seen and heard, CJ would be a great teammate and player, and I doubt he is no more difficult to coach than Russell Wilson, for example, and we never heard that much about his dispositions.

Looks like the Saints and Falcons have a few Big 12 games scheduled.

Smokescreen? Watch the film. Young is an incredibly fast processor and we need to protect him--if you want a QB who can run over a LB, he ain't your guy.

those of you who are familiar with me have read my comments about Steve Smith--he was counterproductive to the other developmental WRs--how he abused Dwayne Jarrett. When Smith is talking about Bryce, he admits his "immaturity" and says, "it wears on people" calling himself an Alpha Dog and not a leader. I was shocked to see him admit that, but maybe he has grown up. He is very smart, and apparently, has done some reflecting.

Yes, he did, but he did not catch them all. As a former college pass catcher, I can tell you that some QBs throw a ball that is more difficult to catch than others. Velocity, timing, and location of the pass matters. Cam's ball was probably more difficult to catch than Brees' ball.

I kinda want Young for his mind (but I do not know the mind of the other qbs--I am also enamored with Young's consistency) but I want Stroud for the security of being more from a proven mold. Either is OK if they use them correctly. I feel Reich will. I think Wilks showed us how to use a qb correctly (with limited talent) so I know it can be done. Rivera? Only interested in Ws and his job.

Its all about the processor--and it is a bold strategy

I think they should sit all the Stroud supporters on the south side, and all the Young supporters on the north side. The endzones are for AR and Levis fans--and all undecided fans. Then give out black and blue water balloons. Below, Mr. Completely demonstrates the concept:

I think it is rather silly to have 2 sides--I see the value in each, but to take a side and argue it as if you are certain about your correctness is foolish. I am 51% Bryce because I think he has a Mahomes/Brady type mind. However, I definitely see the reason we would take Stroud. It just depends on your offense, what you want in your qb. The only thing I have heard is "point guard" a few times, and to me, that points to Young. So far, I have been defending Young a bit lately because I think the size issue is overblown when people use that as an excuse to want Stroud. Go back and watch earlier Ohio State games and not just the Georgia game and his highlight reels, you should question Stroud a bit. On the other hand, I have been making fun of Young's height as well. The thing is this--you just do not know and when we pick, you will not know then either. We will know around 2025.

I am just joking with everyone because anyone who claims to know is being ridiculous. We just watched a 6-5 250 lb running qb with a cannon get hammered out of the NFL in 8 years, yet people are all concerned about the size of the qb leading to injury. As stated, by FAR the most common QB injury is to his shoulder. By far. Secondly, there are studies that show how the QB is used is a bigger predictor of injury than his size. In fact, larger players have a higher injury rate. Now that brings me to look into the commonality of WHERE the injury is likely to take place for QBs---I found this: The QB is just about twice as likely to be injured when he ventures outside the pocket than within it. Size might impact vision and throwing lanes, but a qb who telegraphs passes gets more blocked than those with a quick release. So if his size is as big a factor as some are making it is actually the issue--we all know it is an issue of some degree. If anyone has decided that a 5-10 QB cannot be successful in the NFL because it has not been done before, that is probably because they have not been given the opportunity due to close minded traditionalists. This is a new era, and I think Young (and Stroud) will win games in the NFL.

then when he went to the saints, he caught everything. I think Cam threw a hard ball to catch. Didn't he split Smith's hand open once?

About the visits: They are going to Carowinds on their visit so they did not want Bryce slowing things down. Nothing to see here. First, Levis is not being considered by the Panthers. Second, are you arguing that we moved up to first overall pick so we could pick someone who was almost as good as Young without the resume? Loved the animation though--I laughed.