MHS831

We are fortunate to have a draft so deep at WR (and QB, if you are a dreamer), but we really need to choose the right second round WR time-has to be a home run. While I am OK with Mingo and his development, I do not think he can claim the #2 WR crown. We have problems if Theilen is the #1--he needs to be our Proehl. Depending on the system we employ, and he has already hinted that he wants to go play action under center, we need WRs who can separate and we need those who can get YAC. Corley is my favorite for that reason, but not at 33. There are some good route runners in this draft, but it seems they all have a concern--like they weigh 160 lbs and are listed at 6-2.

I was skeptical about him, but the few seconds I saw of him, he stands out. I just did a mock and chose him over the Xavier boys.

I did not watch much of it today or read any comments. Interesting--what you say will drop him down boards. There are a lot of 4.4 guys who stall to 4.8 when running routes. I mentioned this in relation to DBs when I played in college, but one comment by the DB coach stayed with me, even though I was a TE, He said you may run a 4.4, but if it takes you .2 of a second slower than a 4.6 guy to process and play and get there, then I am going with the smart guy (the 4.6 with brains and faster reaction). I can say that i have never spent more focus watching WRs separation than this year.

As an avid mock drafter, I can say that I often fall in love with players early in the process and that causes me to overlook other talents. I am trying to stay objective about Legette, but it is difficult.

I have just seen a few clips of him and looked at his measurables on paper. I am going to assume Canales likes the big WR after having Evans. So he may be the guy. As time rolls on, the details will come out. FWIW, I was born in Columbia while my dad was a Gamecock Tight End, so I have a small network of legacy cocks that communicate a lot. The theory is that Rattler found Legette a lot and became his #1 target. He had a great year, and they wonder just how good he would have been with a top QB. Some say that he would not have been as good unless Rattler was QB, that if a QB who read the defenses well were under center, the ball would have gone to other WRs more often--Gamecock or egg? not sure

He is a sleeper because he had that weird season--he could become a star, but I see him as a late second/early third guy right now. His rating may change after this week.

That makes me feel like an expert because I noticed that watching practice today--we don't need people who can't run routes--that means you are raw or difficult to coach. He has the tools. I was impressed with Georgia's Ladd McConkey today.

I read an article on him--second round grade--but they said that he would go in the first round if Al Davis were still alive--going after the size/speed ratio players (ineffectively). I am less impressed than before after watching day 1 of the SR bowl practices, but he is having a better day today.

He's waking up from a five day bender. He was heard on the phone shouting, "I signed what?"

I see your point, and that is correct. There have been some indications about a lot of "under center" play action, etc, but I have not seen anything yet. I think, however, we are in a good situation because we have BC who would be more finesse -- it could be as simple as swapping them, but I would hate to think the #6 overall draft pick from 2022 is our LG. I am not that confident that Corbett will make a full return to average RG play.

Of course, that is going to happen, but it would not be a very good discussion board if we responded to all topics that way. But the draft comes before he can figure that out--I guess he will watch hours of tapes, etc. I think the point is, to quote a great ex-Panther and all-around American icon, "Sometimes the answer is on the roster."

If I suggest it, I was confused. I think Shipley could be a day 3 pick, not a third round pick. I have 2 rules about RBs--- 1) don't draft them until day 3 if you are drafting one-instead, drive around town and look for a RB holding up a cardboard sign. Pull up to the curb, and yell, "Get in." 2) Never sign them to a second contract. RBs peak around age 25.5 and the average RB drops off in productivity at a rate that assures they rarely earn that second contract. (going from memory--read a study about 2 years ago--I have read several studies, and they all say basically the same thing.) Interestingly, there are 2 numbers that stand out, One article from B/R said this (called the "Curse of 370"): "A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson." Another article describes the 1800 carry (for career) "Cliff". Says that when most RBs (except a very small percentage) hit 1800 carries for their careers, they are done, for the most part. Derrick Henry has 2000 career carries and he is 30. According to these stats, his productivity should have dropped and he should be often injured. Supposedly, he is seeking another contract. That would be stupid if you are the Titans' GM. If I were a GM, I would not give a RB a second contract. I would trade the RB and draft one every 2 years or so. What if the RB was 26 and coming off a 1000 yard season? I would get a better trade value for them. The CMC trade did not bother me that much because he was already showing to be injury prone and he was not going to peak when the team was a contender. Might as well trade him and build, but we screwed that up. This method would be smart and allow cap funds to address positions where second contracts are more productive. When Marty Hurney signed Williams and Stewart to ridiculous second contracts, it took us a long time to get over it. Here is a chart that demonstrates the steep slope of productivity loss after age 25.5--or the first contract.

This draft is deep at QB. I would not be overly surprised to see them draft a developmental QB to develop late, someone like Pratt, Travis, or Rattler--I expect a day 2 CB as well, even though nobody seems to be talking about it right now--the need/talent level at CB after day 1 seems laughably loaded. What do you all think of Shipley, the RB from Clemson? Good route runner and hands--CMC lite?

Bryce knows the deal. With a better OL, better WRs, and better coach, we will see improvement. Enough? I dunno. I hope he is watching film, lifting, and getting pissed off.

My son went to UNC, but I do not care where a player went to college when I look at pro potential. I think Tez is a bit of a mystery, a sleeper, who could be very effective in the NFL. We sure do have a lot of Charlotte area boys (High School) in the draft. Malik Washington had 10 games over 100 yards receiving in 2023. Not too shabby.

Very possible, but then I remember this is pre-Sr Bowl January, and so much will change between now and late April---still, it could happen, the draft is so loaded at WR, something will fall to us. This is a great draft to get 2 WRs. I do not think free agency will be the way to go, based on what I think will be there. Imagine Thielen, Mingo, Leggette, Corley, Smith-Marssette, and UFA Laviska Shenault. Shenault did not play in 2023 and was not a force in 2022. However, in Jax in 2020 and 2021 he averaged over 600 yards per season. His style fits what they say they are going to do with Bryce--so I think he could be the free agent we sign on the the cheap. TMJ needs to leave, but they could decide to see how he does with Canales. Yes, with the OL getting healthy, a young group of WRs, I also think we need a CB. I'd be very happy with the 2 WRs, a CB and then draft BPA the rest of the way.

Gonna sound like a hypocrite here, but that has never stopped me before. I see Corley with a third-round grade, so he seems a bit high here. I think at least 6 WRs go in round 1-- (here it comes) HOWEVER, I see him as an excellent fit here, considering they are building an offense around Bryce Young. Corley is the best YAC guy in the draft, and reverses, WR screens, quick hitters, etc. will need to be a big part of our offense. However, we did not have a TE or WR who was built for that kind of thing--Laviska was who they tried to convert to that role, but he spent the year on IR. I think Corley will be a Panther, taken with pick 101 with some form of a trade up. I think, depending on free agency, we could draft 2 WRs. Of course there will be trades, but I see (and this will anger some people if it comes true): 33. Legette (I think he will fall to us at #33) 65. A CB 101. Corley I am not thinking TE because I think the draft is not that deep at TE. I expect a free agent, or maybe the new system will promote Tremble more and help Hurst return to form. Not sure what we are doing with the OL, so I hate to pick one. BC at LG? Is Corbett all better? Can Icky learn LT? Is Moton's contract going to send him packing? Can Bozeman get it together?

That is the guy who gets out of the car after you flip him off during a road rage incident. Doesn't matter whose fault it was at that point.

First of all, thank you for presenting data to support your argument. This is interesting, and until Evero leaves, these numbers are telling. While these do not indicate number of snaps, I do have a few observations: Gross Matos must hold the edge while rushing instead of pinning his ears back. 19 pressures in very encouraging. Secondly, Barno seems to be a specimen of an athlete who pressured the QB nearly as frequently as Burns in the number of plays he was in the game. If those two players develop and are given more opportunities, as a salary cap manager/GM, you have to look at the productivity difference. In 2023, Barno was in on 20% of the snap counts (188). Burns was in on 83% of the snap counts (814). So if you mathematically give Barno the same number of snaps that Burns had, Barno would have had 37 pressures. This is not to say the Burns sucks, it is to demonstrate the fine line between a guy drafted with the 10th pick in the first round and a guy drafted with the 10th pick in the sixth round. Barno lacks the sacks, and it is a fair argument to suggest that he was not facing the attention of the offense given Burns. But Burns' numbers do not reflect an elite edge rusher. Instead of comparing him to the teammates he is taking playing time from, lets look at the players he sees as his equals in terms of expected salary: Nick Bosa makes $34m per season, a salary similar to what Burns wants. At the time, that salary was the largest in NFL history for a non-QB. In 2022, for reference, Bosa finished No. 1 in the league last season in pressures (73), sacks (18.5) and sack rate (4.0%), according to Next Gen Stats. Brian Burns wants nearly $30m, close to Bosa's salary. If you Cherry pick his statistics, you can make a case for a salary in the Maxx Crosby range ($23m). However, the stat that bothers me most about Burns is underlined below--he is ineffective, according to this stat, nearly 90% of the time: "Burns has recorded 30.5 sacks over the last three seasons — seventh most in the league — and his 174 total pressures ranked fourth. Nonetheless, his pass rush win percentage remains low, averaging just 10.5% over that time span." Nick Bosa, in 2023, doubled Burns pressure total (82 to 40) and more had 2.5 more sacks even though it was a disappointing year for him. But Burns wants to be paid somewhere between Maxx Crosby ($23.5m) and Bosa ($34m). Crosby had 73 pressures and 14.5 sacks in 2023. Burns performance suggests that he should be paid less than Crosby. Burns is probably worth $21-22m per season--maybe $23m with inflation. He wants $29-30m, the way I understand it.

The novelty of Brady will bring in ratings for a while, but Olsen is good. I used to like Romo, but I am getting tired of him. I'd rather watch the Manning brothers butcher a game. They are great (unless the panthers are playing, then I want the game called, not some stupid interview of what the Rock eats for breakfast).

I get your point, and I agree that a restructure is the way to go. If not, however, while Moton might be our best OL, is he worth $30m? I do not think that you are suggesting that he is, so I simply use this post to make a comparison--and it is not to argue with you: 1. Keep Moton and $30m contract at RT. Moton is probably a 7.5 on a scale of RTs from 1-10. 2. Move BC there, save $17m. Christensen would probably be a 5.5 to 6 at RT, in my estimation. Spend $12 million signing TE Fant, spend $5m on a pass-catching RB.

Personally, I think you should draft an OL every year depending on the depth of the draft at the position. However, when you trade away your picks, it becomes more about need. https://themessenger.com/sports/2024-nfl-draft-strongest-weakest-position-groups According to this source, this is a very good draft at QB, WR (9 in the top 50; 13 in the top 100), CB (no elite players, but a lot of depth--we could use one. 8 in the top 50 players; 13 in the top 100), OT (seven with top 50 grades but it drops off after that) and IOL (There are 8 solid players expected to go between picks 51 and 100). Terrible draft for TE, RB, Edge (good on day 1, depth is weak), S (depth) and DT (on days 2 and 3 you can find the penetrating 3 techniques, however.) What this means: We will probably take a WR at #33 because the need and value will be there. We will probably take a CB (Horn oft injured, Jackson too. Frankly, if teams threw on us more, our CBs would have been exposed) I am guessing that we draft an interior offensive lineman based on our current situation. (If Moton or Ekwonu is injured, BC would move from G to T. So we need a G/C type more than at T type at this time, imo.) At TE, we have Hurst, Tremble, and (from IR) RIcci, who flashed as an effective receiving TE in the past. I do not see why Tremble is not our blocking TE, and he flashed this season as well. We simply do not use the TEs effectively. They can be used better to help with speed rushers and they can run more than curls and outs--they need to drag across the middle to keep the ILBs out of Bryce's face. The way the TEs were used pisses me off. I don't want to talk about it). Maybe we go after Noah Fant? He would be a relatively cheap free agent with a connection to GM and coach here. (I would guess under $8m?) X(avier) marks the Spot: A WR I really like the Xaviers. Xavier Worthy for the play-action pass offense, although he is a bit slight. He is an all-around WR who can give formation flexibility. Xavier Legette is large and fast--and he will be there on day 2. YAC guy: (based on his history of open field running--think WR screens, reverses, etc.) is Western Kentucky's Malachi Corley, a player who could be there around pick 101. Catch Radius (Mike Evans type) guy: While not as good as Evans, Johnny Wilson is 6-7 and is projected to run under 4.5. He could be there at pick 101. Who needs an additional TE with Wilson on the field. Tangent Finis

I have never seen a C draft this good. Ever. I think Bozeman was flanked by two confused guards and A gap was attacked all year long. I am not sure that he is as bad as he looked, but yeah, he looked bad at times.

Not to sound repetitive, but we have already invested in this OL--Icky is a first round pick, BC a third, Bozemen and Corbett signed as free agents, and Moton--that is $57m in cap room for this season. As stated, they need a new coach, new system (the play action approach vs. shotgun is interesting--it deserves its own thread.) and healing. I agree 100%. Some depth would be nice, but as you pointed out, we have that under contract too--just need to develop it. I really think Campen was a waste of time.

That is in the back of my mind as well. However, Icky could be a stud for a long time at LT, and BC might be average. Not sure-