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MHS's Pre-Free Agency Position-by-Position Analysis
MHS831 replied to MHS831's topic in 2025 NFL Draft
I understand that thought completely---depends on the board, but I think there will be a bunch available after the draft. Did you notice I forgot QB? Not intentionally, but we have talked about it so much, why bother now? I might draft Scattleboo or whatever because he is so unique (to me) and would play many roles (STs, good blocker, FB if needed, etc.) -
January 11 2025: And so it was written.... Not getting into too much depth concerning new contract extensions etc–I figure Horn and Ickey (and possibly Jackson) are the priorities right now and it does not have to happen all at once. I think you decide what you need to be successful then work on contracts until it happens–I believe the Panthers expect to be competitive in 2025. The South is wide open–Tampa Bay is not a team that cannot be dethroned and they are aging, Atlanta is now riding on Pennix, and The Saints are headed for a roster overhaul, starting with Carr (word on the street says they were interested in Russell Wilson before his late season collapse.) Offensive Line. (1-2 depth players) Brady Christensen is going to pimp his services in free agency. He is a valuable backup, but I think he has been misused. He is a short-armed swing tackle, but we have him at G and C. Let him look. Nijman is still under contract for $5m per season and I think I would draft an OT (to backup and possibly Moton’s replacement in a year or two. Cutting Nijman would save $3.6 m and I think a rookie would give you as much Nijman has a 57.9 PFF rating, and I think that might be high, but his pass blocking rating was 84th of 141 OTs overall and his run blocking was 112 of 141 OTs. I think a rookie can do better, like maybe Kingston. Nijman will be 30.. Besides, you should draft an OL every year anyway. Tight End (1 starter). Ja’Tavion Sanders flashed too little and Tremble had 200+ yards entering Free Agency. In my view, neither is the Alpha TE we need at the position. Sanders is only 21, so he should get better, but Bryce Young needs a stud. Do not be surprised to see us make a move at TE. I think a top TE could improve our offense as much as any WR in this draft. Full stop. Wide Receiver (1 starter, 1 depth player). Xavier is a project in year 2 and I expect improvement from him. He needs to start being treated like a football player and not some novelty from a SC time warp. He will. Coker is becoming a solid pro. AT is flirting with time, but he is solid–shows that hands and route running mechanics are more important than 40 times. We could go WR in round 1 if T-Mac is there, or we could try to fill the WR room with Cokers. Maybe the way to give Bryce weapons is at TE and possession WR–I see a lot of them in the draft–few Alphas. For example, there are only 2 WRs that have first round grades, and only 1 projects to a #1–arguably. (I do not see Egbuka, Ohio State, as a first round prospect and he has never been a #1 on his college team). If you have 4-5 guys who can catch the ball and a TE who is also a threat, why do you need what we call a #1 WR? Currently, the Panthers have XL, Coker, AT- we should bring Moore back on the cheap. We need 2 more WRs, one needs to have the ability to start. If the Panthers added 1 WR (with the ability to start) and a #1 TE, this offense would improve, but we need a sixth WR regardless–injuries always happen and rarely is the WR room without a player sitting out. Running Back. (1 depth player) Sanders is probably gone. One of the previous administrations’ dumbest moves. Chuba has been solid, as we all know, and the draft is loaded at RB, which means there will be some UDFAs available. We need a RB who can block, catch, and hit the holes–It was hard to watch Arizona State without thinking, “That would be a great backup/short yardage RB and special teamer” when you saw Skatteboo or whatever his name is. As much as some of us think you don’t spend draft picks on RB, I say it is 10x better than signing a RB on a second contract. I think you might get more value out of a fifth round RB than you would a fifth-round CB or Edge. Cornerback. (1 starter). There is a lot of drama at this position. You have an oft-injured CB who will want pro bowler money because he is worth it when on the field. You have an UFA who came in and earned a starting job. Smith-Wade seems ready to play the nickel as the starter; a good tackler who seems pretty instinctive. Finally, Akayleb Evans and Shemar Bartholomew quietly proved that they should be the depth conversation in 2025, both with PFF scores in the mid fifties. I am confident the Panthers will sign Horn, but what to do if Mike Jackson leaves? Is the answer on the roster? Personally, I think if the Panthers get Jackson back, the starters are Horn, Jackson, and Smith-Wade with Evans and Bartholomew behind them entering camp–that is a decent–not great–CB room. I think you try to re-sign Mike Jackson because we know what he can do in this system. If the Horn extension negotiations do not go well, consider trading Horn for picks and cap room. At least you know that we are not giving guaranteed money to an ice tub Eskimo. Safety. (2, 1 starter, 1 depth) Demani Richardson is 24 and played 400+ snaps and has a 60+ PFF grade. He is a big S who can tackle. He was better than starting SS Jordan Fuller (54 PFF grade) who he split reps with, for the most part. Richardson starting at S is probably a given. On the other side, it is wide open. Woods played 1200 snaps with 3 picks but his PFF score was 57. He will be 30 next season, and is an UFA. We need a starting S and we need a backup. Nick Scott (UFA) is also going to be 30 and his PFF grade in 324 snaps is low (52.6). We can do better, so look for Richardson to be the SS and look for us to draft (probably) a FS to start. Inside Linebacker. (2, one starter, maybe 1 depth). Jewell (56.5 PFF) will be 32 and should play better with a better DL; however, he is a far cry from the Mills, Morgan, Beason, Luke tradition in Charlotte. Since one of those LBs is now our GM, I cannot see us watching Shaq leave without replacing him with a Dog. Wallace (56 PFF score) was fine, but behind that DL, hard to gauge. He seems to be a backup LB. I just do not see Morgan sitting back in this draft, with so many good LBs, and not getting a “Dawg.” to play inside. Windmon showed signs of having a shot, and they may want to look at Rhattigan a bit more. Still need that Alpha Dawg. Defensive Line: (2 starters, 1 depth) Gone: NT–Shy Tuttle (42.7 PFF score) Deshawn Williams (47.9 PFF score); LaBryan Ray (33 PFF score). NO WONDER WE SUCKED. Questionable: A’Shawn Robinson (DE) had a 54.6 PFF rating and is due $10m salary in 2025. He will be 30. Derrick Brown returns, but aside from Robinson, the cupboards appear to be bare. Yes, there is Jaden Crumedy (not good in 2024) and Sam Roberts who played 24 snaps in 2025, so who knows how deep this cut really is? Ideally, we could save a lot of $$ ($5m) by cutting Robinson, but we really have nothing else, so if you cut him, DE becomes a priority. I think he will be better with Brown and a good NT inside. We need a NT. We need a DE to challenge Robinson. Edge/OLB: (1 starter–or developmental rotational player) Clowney (70.8 PFF) has a $14m cap figure and Wonnum (55 PFF) has a $8m cap number. That is $22m for average to below average. Barno showed a few signs of turning the corner in very limited play this season (injured) and his salary is $1m. DJ Johnson had 1 pressure in nearly 400 snaps. Thomas Incoom only played 41 snaps, but his PFF score was nearly 80: he is 25. Cam Gill (27) played over 200 snaps but his PFF score was 49.1. If it were me, I would add a pass-rushing edge and keep Clowney, Wonnum, Barno, and Incoom. Need Starters (7): NT, S, WR, OLB, CB, TE, ILB . (While TE is not essential, it is more important than people realize and Tremble is a free agent. You could pencil in Sanders as a starter, but he is not starting material at this time….CB is removed from this list if we re-sign Mike Jackson or another quality veteran….OLB is a big need because long term need and rotational participation is emphasized at this position.) Need Depth: DE, OL, S, ILB, RB, WR
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I think a free agent pass rusher (if we keep Wonnum and Clowney) would break the bank (without doing any research, mind you), so I think we have to look draft for that edge....S? I think we can get a free agent to help. I am guessing Fuller will not be back and Richardson will step up into that role--and I am also guessing that Woods will not be back--Of course,before teams start negotiating, you don't know what you have but I really like Tre'von Moehrig from the Raiders. He does not sound that interested in returning to Vegas. He is 26 and covers the field.
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I liked Sawyer when he was a second rounder, but not in the first. I think he has limitations, but he is a dawg. Not sure he will ever be that 12 sack guy, but you will get 6 and he will hold the edge, imo. I am afraid this game will inflate his stock. I think this draft is pretty even from about pick 12 through the second round--not a huge dropoff--the play may be to trade back and get 3 players instead of staying at #8 and getting another pick at #54 or so. I think we are going to need 2 DL, 1 edge, 1 CB, 1 LB, and maybe 2 Safeties. Not sure if we are keeping Clowney and/or Wonnum-as much as it hurts our cap, we probably should.
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Deshaun Watson re-injures Achilles--impacts 2025 draft
MHS831 replied to MHS831's topic in 2025 NFL Draft
I don't assume Allar will declare after that game he had vs. ND. He probably needs a year anyway. -
Deshaun Watson re-injures Achilles--impacts 2025 draft
MHS831 replied to MHS831's topic in 2025 NFL Draft
I have not kept up with who wants whom, and that might be the best move for the Browns in the long term. Stefanski has one year, I would assume, so breaking in a rookie might not be in his best interest. My first thought was Cousins--who the Falcons will want to deal-- I could see the Browns taking a second-tier QB from this draft--Ewers maybe, or Howard. -
You bring up an interesting point--of course, we will know what I am about to post during free agency, but here is how I see it (shooting from the hip based on mocks): Quality players are available: Round 1: All positions except QB Round 2: If you need an edge, better get it by end of round 2. WR, DBs that are likely to make a difference year 1 are gone by mid round 2. Round 3: DT/DEs run out in round 3 I really like the DT/DE depth in this draft--So much I might double dip (NT) and 3 tech (DE). WR? Free agency is not good, and you have to ask, "When are we getting a WR?" You could add edge early, but if we plan to keep Clowney and Wonnum et al, can we get one later? Doubt it, which suggests that we may need to try to trade back and get the second or third best edge and WR early, DT/DE in rounds 2 and 3. Just how I feel right now.
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The Browns pick second, and they were prepared to renegotiate Watson's deal and go with him--until Thursday's second surgery--he could be done (my opinion). Regardless, the Browns have to take a QB--Ward or Sanders. Wonder how Coach Prime feels about baby Prime playing in Cleveland?
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He is 29. Never earned a starting gig he could hold. Decent value as a swing T, but we played him at G and C. He is not a necessity, and you gotta lose some to gain some. Go figure. I think we need to draft a T to replace BC as a top swing T (Nijman is not the answer) and eventual Moton replacement. Moton's knees (knee issues on a big man are not good) and when we sign Ickey, Moton's contract could be an issue if we cannot extend him. Always plan ahead for unseen circumstances. If you think the agents don't know when you are vulnerable, you would be wrong for thinking the agents don't know when you are vulnerable. Good thread. I would like to see us analyze the S situation, the LB situation, DTs, and the OLB /edge situation soon.
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Chase Daniels breaks down Bryce carving up the Falcons.
MHS831 replied to TD alt's topic in Carolina Panthers
Seriously, everyone had a right to criticize Bryce and they have a right to be skeptical now--his positive sample size is small. But I agree that he showed us enough to change our approach to QB in 2025. And Daniels points out how well he was reading the defense. Hats off to the OL, and especially Cade Mays who stepped in at C and improved us. Coker who is going to be fun to watch in 2025 because he was just getting started-great hands, nice size, and a gamer. Add a WR or two and maybe a TE and this offense is going to be way groovy. -
And when he tries to dip under the tackle or rush from inside, he rips with his left hand--I watched him the whole game, and he never ripped with his left hand-he was protecting it (a should is most vulnerable when away from the body, and he was holding it tight, for the most part. He was fighting them with "one hand tied behind his back," in other words. In my view, that is probably why he was on the RT all night unless over center. Not sure how much he shifts to the Defensive right, but he never did. I would take him in the first. Another player with some similarities (listed as a LB more than an edge--sorta like Parsons--is Javon Walker from Salisbury through UGA. He can play edge or move around to make the defense find Waldo.
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Chase Daniels breaks down Bryce carving up the Falcons.
MHS831 replied to TD alt's topic in Carolina Panthers
HEY!!! You bringing positive stuff about our QB in heah? It makes all the time spent bitching about how he sucks lose credibility. Forget all the stats and obvious signs of improvement--the only stats that matter in the Huddle are "He sucks" or "He will start sucking soon." We all play Madden and know our sh*t. So be gone with "analytics" and "data" and "expert opinions." There is no room for you heah! -
His left shoulder is injured so it has limited his inside move--the last thing he wants is for a 300 lb OT to get ahold of it. So he is staying outside and trying to get low and vary is speeds to get to the QB--if healthy, oh my. Having played with a shoulder injury, you can tell how he is holding it--it is as if he is winning with one arm. If he falls to 8, slap some silver and black on him
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I think I saw where Salah was interviewing with Vegas. I think that would be the hire for them--but Brady's ego is now involved--he will pursue Vrabel, but I think Vrabel goes where there is a QB--NE. While on the subject, Brady is also trying to create a great situation for coach Bill, trying to steal him from UNC. Not sure BB wants that, but BB will not take a job without a QB in place. However, it seems odd that BB has gone recruiting (in my opinion he is avoiding the press) when he could halt these rumors if he wanted to--the rumor is hurting recruiting and the transfer portal, I would assume. I think he is playing both sides a bit and will wait to see what numbers a team is going to throw at him.
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Biggest Decision on offense this offseason…….
MHS831 replied to WarPanthers89's topic in Carolina Panthers
The information about knee pain is significant, and if true and depending on the extent, I have changed my approach to the Moton issue. First, his performance has not dropped off but Moton has never been elite--he has been solid and dependable--maybe our best player over the past 5 years. However, extending a big man with knee issues is VERY risky--the question is not "if" it is "when." The "Left Tackle is more important that Right Tackle" argument is not valid any more. Watt, Bosa, Crosby, etc. prefer rushing from the RT side--Bosa had this to say about rushing when he is not on the blind side: "“When it’s right there, you don’t really even have to completely get off your block . You can kind of just reach over and knock it out sometimes.” Getting a hand on the ball and stripping it is easier than getting off a block and tackling the QB, so the most destructive pass rushers in the NFL play defensive left tackle. Having said that, Moton is incredibly important, but extending him may seem risky--HOWEVER--most big men who have played OL in the NFL for a decade have knee soreness---I have not seen a major problem in his history: Week 17, 2024: Moton missed the Panthers' loss to Tampa Bay due to a knee issue. He didn't practice during the week and was considered doubtful for the game. Week 2, 2024: Moton experienced knee sorenes 2019: Moton had a questionable knee injury. Is Brady Christensen good enough to start at RT in the NFL? If not, I think the solution is to extend Moton with less guaranteed money and add a young RT through the draft or free agency. Cade Mays' performance means that C is not something we MUST address, so a depth, developmental RT is smart. Furthermore, we still have Nijman on the roster, and he played RT for Moton during the Tampa Bay game--he was not good, however. If you do not have a LT, RT, and a swing T who can hold his own in the NFL, your roster is not complete. -
Panthers offensive line was 8th best in the league
MHS831 replied to TheSpecialJuan's topic in Carolina Panthers
George Carlin said (paraphrasing) "The average American is pretty stupid. Half of them are stupider than that." So if you are one notch above stupid, you are "above average." Reading is not the issue--it is the the inability to apply reading comprehension skills that bothers me. I realize that you were kidding because I have 8th grade reading comprehension skills--but there are some very intuitive posters on this board--people who look at alternative perspectives and are able to discuss alternative viewpoints without grabbing their nuts and getting pissed because someone disagrees with them. For those folks, they WISH they were on an eighth grade level. I laughed when I read this, but not out loud. LBNOL! -
That is a problem, but this draft is deep at DT/NT as well as DE/3tech. I hear that Evero likes smaller NTs (Tuttle is smaller than DEs on the team, for example). I REALLY like the DTs in this draft--and think we can find a stud in the second, but I would not be surprised to see us take a DT early--and to your point--we need to stop the run first and work on the other areas afterwards.
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Ok, I agree that I was not happy with the rush stats. But most teams were beating us--what are they going to do? Run the ball. Overall, the Defense was ranked 4th and the Passing Defense was ranked 3rd. (because teams did not need to pass much vs. the terrible offense) Regardless, the same reason you can't give Evero credit for his pass defense is the reason you can't crush him over rushing data. This is cherry picking--yet I agree with you that they gave up too much on the ground then and it got worse. I think we are a stud DT(NT), a DE, and an ILB away from solving that problem--and I think it will be the priority.
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Joe Bady a candidate to coach the Saints
MHS831 replied to Jackson113.2's topic in Carolina Panthers
McDermott was--Brandon Beane was another. The Buffalo Bills should be the Carolina Panthers, but our idiot owners kept Marty Hurney and Ron Rivera instead. As for Brady, I am not sold that he is a leader of men who can build a culture.- 13 replies
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You know who had the most missed time on defense due to injuries? Detroit. Carolina was #2.
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Well said. On top of losses in free agency and trades last year (Burns, DJax, YGM, etc). This team had nearly 100 starts lost to injuries. I think he will be fine, but I am concerned about his "bend don't break" approach--one that could be based on personnel and not philosophy. If you give him some defensive weapons he will attack. In my view, DT (NT) is the biggest need, and DE is next. Edge is a problem, but with Clowney and a healthy Wonnum, not so much. We need an alpha safety. A stud, run-stuffing ILB. Re-sign Jackson (CB). It was not fair to evaluate Evero after this season--we are concerned, but the greatest coach in the world would have been abused with these holes. I think you have to be careful evaluating players that depend on others doing their jobs in order to do their jobs. I can say this with a fair degree of confidence: Ray and Tuttle sucked. That impacts the rush from the outside and it creates traffic for your ILBs to hunt. I think we can "over fix" this. Fuller? (UFA and his numbers were not good-but we shall see) We need a few safeties, fwiw.
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A lot of folks seem to think that Mays is not that good despite his performance numbers since taking over. Reason? He has been labeled, in my opinion, and that is preventing some from seeing Mays as a legit OL. He played nearly every position on the in college at Georgia and Tennessee. This should help him as a center calling blocking schemes. He started here at OG, where he struggled, and many of you sealed your opinion of him then--he was 24. Ryan Kalil played G his first season and he was not good. So now he has transitioned to one of the positions he has the least amount of experience playing--C--and he has been good for 11 games. During that time, the Panthers got Bryce back at QB and the last nine games of the season the Panthers went 4-5 and if Legette catches that damn pass, they would have posted a winning record. Number of sacks surrendered during the 11 games this season? 0 I am not sure why anyone is questioning Mays and acting as if we need to upgrade.
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The last few games (scoring 30+) showed that--and you have to think Sanders will be improved in year 2. We could use an elite TE, in my view, to give Bryce another weapon, but it does seem to be more of a luxury than necessity at this point. I don't see but about 3-5 TEs in the draft that would move the needle here, and I think we have seen signs of player development on the roster at a level we have not seen before in Carolina.
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I think we found our QB, and he was on the roster. We found a starting Center I think we found a starting LB (Wallace) and we may have found a starting CB (Jackson) and I think a possible depth or nickel CB (Bartholomew). An undrafted Rookie because a key part of our offense (Coker). We seem to have gotten good play from our 2024 draft's third and fourth round picks. Our biggest weaknesses: DL (I think DT/nose is a huge weakness that can really make us better if addressed properly) DB (We have 1 safety returning; need to re-sign Jackson and add some CB help) WR (We could use an alpha) Edge (A rookie to play with Clowney and Wonnum for a season) LB (Jewell and Wallace were below average--but playing behind a below average DL--I think we need an ILB) TE--A stud would improve this offense. Give Sanders time, but we could use 2