MHS831

I am happy. We already have 2 veteran WRs. If Mingo and a rookie aren't allowed to play, how do they improve? We draft players that are developmental and we want to discard them as soon as they don't become superstars. In fact, we are more patient with first round picks when we should be more patient with the day 3 picks. Develop them. I am OK letting Theilen and Johnson be the veteran WRs this season. We have a WR deep draft. I think a first rounder will fall to us at 33 and I think we can find one later in the draft. Even if we lose both Thielen and Johnson after this season, we would still have 3 or 4 non rookies--add another WR then.

If we took Ladd McConkey at 33 and then (assuming we don't sign any legit edges) I would love to see us grab (and you need to see my post in the 2024 draft section to understand why) the Edge from Utah at #39 Jonah Ellis. He is under the radar because he had a bad shoulder during the second half of the season and he still played-- and his recovery kept him from participating in all star games, so the experts on social media have him much lower than he probably is on teams' boards. I doubt he makes it past pick 50. I would then like to see us take another developmental WR later. McCaffery from Rice or Jalen Coker from Holy Cross--we might even take Jerry Rice's kid in round 3.

I had forgotten about Ricky Manning's pick. Without that, no X Clown.

Jonah Ellis is going to be the steal of the draft--even if we take him at #33. Under the radar.

My new, "I just saw a video that changed everything for me about Edge" selection at #33. See the strand I started in the draft page---Jonah Ellis. Utah--a sleeper I would take at #33 and laugh at doubters.

Jonah Ellis Utah As you can see from this example, some sites have him as a third round talent. However, he was injured (shoulder) and surgery prevented him from working out and competing at the Shrine game and SR bowl. The video below is well worth the watch; it is the reason I am no longer wanting Chop Robinson, Austin Booker, or Adisa Isaac. However, I would take Jonah Ellis at pick 33. Full stop. And I would celebrate. Not only from this video, but it led me to watch other stuff on him. First, he has three family members with NFL experience--bloodlines manner. Second, since he kept playing with a bad shoulder, his play dropped off during his last year (note the 12 sacks). While he is not the best vs the run, he is very comparable with the others not in the top 3 who play the same position. He is 21, and has amazing hands. This guy compared him to a younger and more raw TJ Watt, and explained that some teams may have him on their board in round 1. In my estimation, his bust risk is minimal compared to the others in the round 2-3 range. watch from about 35:50-42:00

Let's not forget that we also will have first opportunity to claim players off waivers.

Just to be clear (because I do the same thing) you are referring to edge or the 3-4 rush OLB, correct? To me, there is nothing there, short of overpaying Clowney. I know Clowney had a good season last year, but he was on a winning team with a lot of support. Here, he would not have as much support and he would not win as much. I am afraid we'd be paying for performance in Baltimore and not Carolina. We now have Wonnum on the Strong side and he is mediocre. We have an interesting choice in Chaisson on the Rush Edge side and he was out of position before--maybe he will return to first round pick status here. I am cautiously optimistic. We have Barno who played well at times and I think would improve in year 3. Beyond that, Johnson has underwhelmed and Leota has been below average, but he was an underafted rookie. I hope this is not seen as an attempt to derail your thread. It is a good topic on its own. I simply think the option to finding a free agent starter is to develop what you have and draft a player. I have been researching this when you posted this, so I thought I'd share where my mind is right now: If you look long term and at the cap, considering we are likely not going to make the playoffs, use the year to draft and develop an edge. Develop Chaisson (first round talent) and Barno, two players who have skills but lack technique, to overly simplify. In the draft, I like the following players (note that not all players on the list are 3-4 rush OLBs like Burns was--that is what we need): 1. Chop Robinson (he could fall to the Panthers, but it is highly unlikely. pick #33) 2. Bralen Trice (pick #65 if available) Was slow 4.72 40 but his college productivity shows 7 sacks and nearly 50 tackles. To me, that suggests he has the potential to be effective vs the run and get pressure on the QB) 3. Jonah Ellis (pick 65) Productive in college with 12 sacks, but his 3 passes defended suggests that he is in the face of the QB quite a bit. I see him as a rotational player in the NFL, not a starter. 4. Austiin Booker (pick 65) He is my favorite and a value for the third round. 56 tackles and 8 sacks w/ 2 forced fumbles. He, like Bralen Trice, ran a slowish 4.79 40 but they had as many tackles as the top 3-4 OLBs and they had as many sacks, on average. NOTE: I like 2 others, but they played opposite studs. Chris Braswell has a great motor but his physical makeup is questionable for an elite edge. I would seriously consider him at #39--based on the "Dawg" factor alone. He played opposite Dallas Turner, so how many sacks were due to protecting the other side or pressure forcing the QB into Braswell's lap? Braswell ran a 4.6 if that matters. Adisa Isaac played opposite Chop Robinson, and he too has a high motor.He ran a 4.74 at the combine, so I have to think that the 40 times for Booker, Trice, and Isaac are based on 40 times--which means very little. It does measure, however, the takeoff and release. So I guess my point? If you are building a program, develop some youth at $2m per season as opposed to paying a journeyman $8m for a rental season.

PFF 44.0 according to their scale key, "Player is on life support. DNR. Call Hospice and next of kin.

Washington has the 40th pick and there is likely to be an OT lingering around the top of the second. With a new QB, I see them wanting to move up. 40 and the 100th overall pick is probably what they would offer to drop 7 spots.

Whew. Took longer than I thought--I researched each team's needs to figure out what player they are likely to pursue, based on websites and fans' comments. Here is what I came up with: 1. Chicago Bears Team needs: QB, IOL, WR, EDGE, DT, S, IOL Commentary: Obviously the pick will now be a QB, and it is fairly certain that it will be Caleb Williams. Pick: Caleb Williams QB, USC 2. Washington Commanders Team needs: QB, IOL, EDGE, CB, LB, OT, WR Commentary: The pick will be QB, and there is some debate about the style of QB the Commanders will draft. After signing a backup, it may have been a tell: Pick: Jayden Daniels QB, LSU 3. New England Patriots Team needs: QB, OT, WR, TE, LB, DL, OT Commentary: The Patriots are probably going to be happy with QB#3 falling into their laps. Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC 4. Arizona Cardinals Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT Commentary: TRADE TO GIANTS The draft gets interesting here because Arizona has so many needs. I predict a possible trade with the NY Giants; that would keep the Vikings from moving up to #5 to get McCarthy. The Cards could probably get a second rounder out of the Giants for a QB-related trade. Knowing that the Giants would take a QB, it means that they could still possibly get Harrison at #6. With so many needs, they take the second rounder and move back 2 spots. Pick TRADED TO GIANTS: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan 5. Los Angeles Chargers Team needs: CB, DL, RB, LB, TE, OT, IOL, WR Commentary: If the Giants make the move they almost have to make, the Chargers probably run to the podium with their pick–the best WR to come out in quite some time. If the Cards sit tight and take Harrison, this pick becomes a bidding war between the Giants and Minnesota–so the Giants might get off cheaper dealing with #4 than #5. Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. 6. New York Giants Team needs: IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, RB, CB Commentary: TRADE TO CARDINALS This pick was traded to the Arizona Cardinals for pick #4, giving Cards the #6 and #47 overall selections. The Cards select the second best WR in the draft. Pick: TRADED TO CARDINALS: Malik Nabors, WR, LSU 7. Tennessee Titans Team needs: OT, IOL, WR, CB, EDGE, TE, DL, RB Commentary: The Titans’ biggest need is probably OT, and there are 8 teams who have a similar interest. While it is possible that a team with a need at T or WR makes offers to trade up, I take the best OT if I am the GM. Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. 8. Atlanta Falcons Team needs: EDGE, IOL, WR, CB, LB, DL Commentary: The Falcons can focus on the defense and their biggest need is for an Edge. Pick: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama 9. Chicago Bears Team needs: IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, S, IOL Commentary: With the new QB, the Bears could go two ways here. They could decide that Moore is the #1 and they can wait to get a WR in round 2, but their second biggest need, edge, was addressed with Montez Sweat last year. They will give Caleb another weapon. Pick: Rome Odunze, WR Washington 10. New York Jets Team needs: OT, IOL, OT, DL, QB, RB, WR Commentary: There is a reason you do not mock draft before free agency–the Jets signed 2 veteran OTs (Smith, Moses) and will probably start them. With the top 3 WRs off the board, the Jets upgrade tremendously with an offensive weapon just as dangerous. While it is probably too early, if one of the three teams picking after the Jets decide they want Penix, this could get interesting. Pick: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia. 11. Minnesota Vikings Team needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, RB LB Commentary: Minnesota has the #11 and #23 pick in the draft, and #11 will go to McCarthy if he lasts this long; Penix would be a huge reach here and at #23. Denver and Vegas are without starting QBs, unless Minshew is the starter. Does that force the Vikings to take Penix maybe a round too soon? While many mockers are taking an edge here, I do not, and they will hope the #23 pick can be for a QB. The Pick: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama 12. Denver Broncos Team needs: QB, DL, IOL, S, CB, LB, EDGE Commentary: I think they;d like to trade back a bit and then up for a QB later, maybe on day 2. Pick TRADED TO NEW ORLEANS: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State 13. Las Vegas Raiders Team needs: QB, IOL, DL, CB, OT, LB, RB. Minshew is not the long term answer, but unless Vegas rolls the dice and goes after Lefty Penix, I don’t see QB right now. The choice is between OT and CB, and OT is deep in the first round. Decent CB talent can be found later. The Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State 14. New Orleans Saints Team needs: IOL, EDGE, DL, WR, LB, CB, RB, TE, S TRADED TO DENVER Denver is difficult because they could really use a CB opposite Surtain to keep teams honest, but QB is not realistic here as is OT. Pick TRADED TO DENVER: Quinion Mitchell, CB Toledo 15. Indianapolis Colts Team needs: WR, DT, EDGE, IOL, CB, QB, RB Commentary: This pick will not be difficult–the best player on the board fills their biggest need. Colts run to turn the card in, if they still do that. Pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State 16. Seattle Seahawks Team needs: DL, LB, S, IOL, QB, TE, EDGE. Commentary: The Seahawks primary need is two guards, and there does not seem to be much help in free agency. Pick: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington 17. Jacksonville Jaguars Team needs: EDGE, WR, IOL, DL, CB, IOL, S Commentary: The Jags want an Edge player to play opposite Allen, but their biggest need is arguably another WR. Perhaps a bit of a reach, the Jags will grab LSU’s second best WR halfway through the first round. Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. WR, LSU 18. Cincinnati Bengals Team needs: OT, DL, IOL, EDGE, TE, CB, WR With the addition of a rather substantial RB in the conference, the Bengals have to address a weakness up front on D. Pick: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois 19. Los Angeles Rams Team needs: OT, IOL, CB, S, LB, WR, EDGE Commentary: I wanted to go with Murphy of Texas to replace Donald, but Edge is harder to find and a good one is sitting there down the street in LA. Pick: Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA 20. Pittsburgh Steelers Team needs: OT, CB, IOL, LB, S, DL Commentary: Mason Cole C was a cap casualty and his replacement was not addressed. While a T is a possibility here, with 2 new QBs, a Center is a must. Pick: Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon 21. Miami Dolphins Team needs: IOL, EDGE, CB, IOL, TE, DL, LB Commentary: Miami has quite a few needs on their front lines. This could be a DT, but with the OTs available, they are going to fish where they are biting. Pick: J. C. Latham, OT, Alabama 22. Philadelphia Eagles Team needs: EDGE, RB, CB, IOL, S, TE, WR Commentary: The Eagles would probably prefer edge here, but there are a few solid CBs on the board that should fit nicely. This CB can come up and stuff the run and play in the box if needed. Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa 23. Minnesota Vikings (via Texans) Team needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, RB, EDGE, LB. Commentary: With no more picks until the fourth round, Minnesota has no choice if they want to draft the next best QB. Pick: Michael Pinix, QB, Washington 24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) Team needs: OT, IOL, RB, CB, LB, DT, S Commentary: Jerry Jones knows that he was not as successful in Dallas until he started drafting OL early. This T can play either side, and since the OL is in flux a bit, it should be a sound pick. Pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) Team needs: IOL, S, RB, EDGE, LB, DL, OT Commentary: While it may appear that he is a reach because he has shorter than desired arms, Jordan Love needs a LT now. Between the tall Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan, The Packers could take either one and fill that need. Morgan has more LT experience. Pick: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona. 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers team needs: IOL, EDGE, LB, CB, S, WR Commentary: C Ryan Jensen is gone, and the Bucs need to address that position in the draft. Pick: Graham Barton, C, Duke 27. Arizona Cardinals Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT Commentary: After trading back from #4 to #6 and getting WR Nabors, the Cardinals use the pick they got from Houston to fill another primary need with a good value. Pick: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 28. Buffalo Bills Team needs: , WR, CB, S, LB, DL Commentary: Bills will come away from this draft with a long-term replacement for Gabe Davis and a cornerback who can aid in replacing Tre'Davious White. The find good value here. The Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. 29. Detroit Lions Team needs: IOL, CB, EDGE, DL, WR, S, LB Commentary: The Lions were very good last season, but their secondary ranked 29th in net yards per pass attempt. CB is the priority, and if a good one is there at the end of round 1, they will bite. Pick: Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama. 30. Baltimore Ravens Team needs: RB, IOL, DL, CB, EDGE, OT, WR. Commentary: With the Odell Beckham side show gone, the Ravens would add a larger WR to pair with Zay Flowers. Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas 31. San Francisco 49ers Team needs: OT, IOL, EDGE, DL, IOL, S, CB Commentary: The NFC champs has several needs on the OL. Fortunately for them, a T that can play both sides of the OL falls here. Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma 32. Kansas City Chiefs Team needs: OT, WR, DL, LB, S, CB, RB Commentary: Many will see Florida State wideout Keon Coleman's disappointing 40-yard dash time and be turned away. However, Coleman's size is a plus-plus trait, and he possesses good short-area explosiveness and could be a great yards-after-catch threat at the next level. Pick: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State. (This pick could be Ladd or Xavier Worthy--Coleman ran a slow 40) Best Available: Edge Chop Robinson Penn State (several teams will want to see what it would take to move up for this Edge; if he is there, the Panthers should probably take him) OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU (I see the Commanders wanting to move up for a T to protect their new QB; they can offer picks 40 and 100 to move up to 33) QB Bo Nix, Oregon (Raiders offer picks 44 and 77 for #33 and a fifth rounder--Note that Denver does not have a second rounder, so this hurts the trade pressure. IMO, Nix is for the Raiders to select, unless they are going with Minshew. Seahawks also could be in play for Nix, playing him behind Smith for a year. Nix was big in that area of the country) WR Ladd McConkly 33. Carolina Panthers Team needs: EDGE, WR, G, CB, TE, RB

I hope someone else will answer this because trying to keep up with the finances is something I have yet to figure out. I THINK we will deal with it after we sign our 53 and use the 2025 cap room to help get that done--but I am with you---I would like to know the best strategy. If the question is, "Do you pay a defensive lineman that kinda money?" Then I would say that we probably can get away with it since we did not re-sign Burns. I think this offseason is about surrounding Burns--maybe not because they think they can make him great as much as they want to find out what they have in him. To me, Brown is worth $100m if we have a G making that much.

I am pretty sure that this draft is so loaded that there will be a first round talent at #33, making it difficult to trade out of--If Chop Robinson (probably the top 3-4 Edge that could be there) or Adonai Mitchell (arguably the top WR with a first round grade) is there--no brainer. Now, since you didn't ask, bonus analysis: Chop Robinson is the fourth rated Edge in the draft, and I see him going to either Buffalo at #28 or Detroit at #29 Mitchell will be the fifth or sixth WR off the board, and unless the Chiefs go for Keon Coleman, there is no way Mitchell gets by KC I see the Panthers drafting from the following positions in round 2: Edge, WR I see the Panthers drafting from the following positions after round 2: CB, TE, C, WR

Pick #33 is a very valuable pick if you are willing to trade down-- To be honest, the way I see the draft panning out--and a lot of this changes if we add another good player in free agency--I MIGHT trade up if a top 3-4 OLB Edge falls. However, I think Detroit takes him, so I would have to move up to 28. As for WR, I probably trade down because to me--after the first 5 WRs, the talent plateaus until almost the mid third round, depending on the kind of WR you need. Prolly not getting an Alpha, but you need someone who can play early and often. Add a pick or add a first next year and deal. Here is the zinger that will cause people to poo me--I might even consider taking a third rounder and a first in next year's draft.

He was the second leading receiver on his team--and #1 was a TE--albeit a very good TE, however. I am removing the top 4 from your list because they won't be there for us (barring a trade up) but my "little board" at #33 features Mitchell and that is about it. Later, maybe if we trade down--Pearsall. I think Pearsall is going to be the WR that everyone wishes they had drafted one day. X Worthy gives me Stephen Hill vibes,and that is not fair to him. Coleman gives me Benjamin vibes. I agree about the others. My own bias is my cross to bear,and it is not fair to anyone to attribute another player's issues with his prognosis--but I do it.

Check out the Holy Cross kid. Steve Smith did a video on him. Difference could be 2nd round vs. 5th round.

I try to stay optimistic, But Moose was the last time we found WR value in the second round. Well, its going to happen, this would be the year. I still think these WRs are a bit hyped. The #33 pick in this draft should be comparable to a late first rounder in other drafts because there are so many players who would qualify. I read somewhere that this draft had 23-24 first round talents. To put that in perspective, former Giants GM Jerry Reese estimated the average is 15. It can range as high as 20. He defines a first round talent as any player who would appear in the first round on every team's board. That is a pretty good measure, if we only knew their boards. Somebody is going to drop. That means we can get a first round talent (with so many needs, we should have a plan for each scenario) or we would have about 18 hours to listen to offers--maybe our best option--unless that player with a true first round talent at WR or Edge falls. But yes, you speak the truth my friend.

Ladd is also a boom or bust--he really is not as good an athlete as others in his range-

CAUTION: We are getting to that time of the draft year when we start overpicking the good players and inflating the others. Over the past 2-3 months, Thomas didn't start sucking and Pearsall all the sudden got better--however... To me, Xavier Legette is a boom or bust pick. I see that there are players who will not be drafted until round 3 or later who will be good NFL players. Roman Wilson, Tez Walker, Jermaine Burton, Brendon Rice, Jermaine Walker---all could be good WRs.

Not reading the entire thread, but didn't Gallop have a knee surgery and has yet to return to form?

I see that. I also see Kelvin Benjamin 2. Don't think that is fair, but its in my head!!!

Me too. I think I posted something about him going early second round. Look at his combine #s. He is a great athlete. Did he have the best situation at UF?

I love sitting in the end zone when I go. In fact, when I watched film with Beamer's staff at Va Tech, Most of the grading they did was from the endzone camera. They graded film by watching each play from the side, then twice from the endzone. When we watch a game on TV, it is from the side. We can rarely see what the FS is doing, and we lose the routes when the ball is snapped. Announcers, mostly former NFLers who watched film for days, said on numerous occasions that nobody was open during multiple games. The OL sucked, and we were usually playing from behind. Yet most people have dismissed Bryce while seeming to disconnect him with the performance of the OL and the WRs. Amazing. WHen Bryce was practicing with his WRs, there was no rush or coverage. So what do you think the problem is? Could it be the rush and the fact that WRs were covered? That tends to throw off timing, and timing is what those drills work on. Just a thought. But I will say that people have thrown Bryce under the bus prematurely. No QB would have succeeded here. Want proof? Look at what Baker did when he went to a good offense. And the OL was much better when he was here. I expect that level of improvement here.

that guy does a great job. I subscribed.

This is embarrassing. Reminds me of Basbear's prom date. Shots fired. What? Too soon?