MHS831

My bad--I got so turned around and parts were confusing because I cut and pasted so much. Simple version: The Jets have the pick and the cap room for Watson. We should focus on a deal with Miami--because they are not picking a QB. To me, I am settling into a fairly firm account of the situation by engaging in this process: So if traded, I predict Watson goes to the Jets based on cap room (that Miami does not have) and the fact that they have 2 first rounders--the Texans take Wilson--if that deal falls through, the Panthers are next in line, but assuming it does not-the Panthers will move up to #3 for Lance or Fields. However, NY may want to keep their picks and take Wilson--and use the cap they saved and the 3 picks in the top 35 to build around Wilson. (That is what I would do). So let's say the Jets say, "HELL NO." NEXT call the Texans make: MIAMI. So Houston is thinking, "Do we want Tua and 2 first rounders or do we want to keep Watson and try to make him happy? They are not thinking Carolina and CMC / Shaq yet. They are deciding between Tua + 2 first rounders, and keeping Watson. The Dolphins then have to decide if they have the cap room for Watson and are willing to lose the picks it would take to get Watson. In addition, they have to decide to give up on a player they just researched for months who was not even expected to play in a season with no preseason. Tall order for a rehabbing rookie, and they said in January that he was their guy in 2021. Frankly, I think a trade makes them look weak. Watson's salary would eat all their salary cap and they would lose their first rounders. They need to rebuild around Tua over selling the farm for Watson. Watson is good, but won 4 games last year with no supporting cast. Miami would be no different, so do not expect the Dolphin offer to be substantial. The upgrade at QB is not worth the price. (If I am Miami, I draft a WR and RT in round 1 and keep Tua.) So it is possible that Miami and the Jets do not offer the farm for Watson, and they may not offer anything at all. Three bad front offices trying to cut deals. The Panthers should lay a good offer on the table and sit back. If the Texans deal with the Jets, the offer a good deal to Miami. If the Texans and jets do not come to terms, it is much less likely Miami will give Houston what it wants. The Panthers should deal with Miami and let Houston tap them on the shoulder---then the price goes down. if not, the Panthers have Fields or Lance.

Ummmm---hey, hypocrite: There was nothing deceptive about the thread title and you opened it. Did you give it a rest? No. So shut up.

I would think not, but it meets the legal definition of blackmail. However, if damages occur as a result, a civil suit is always in style. I teach School Law in principal prep courses, and blackmail is something we cover--which is why this jumped off the page at me when I read it. Not a lawyer, and I would never guess how seriously this is, but here is the definition: "the action, treated as a criminal offense, of demanding payment or another benefit from someone in return for not revealing compromising or damaging information about them." That is EXACTLY what this is, shared on social media. I would assume that if the reporter pushed this, it could get this far. I do not get into the litigation stuff--just the laws and how to avoid stuff like this.

If totally accurate, this is textbook felony blackmail and perhaps defamation of character (civil suit) if the reporter suffers measurable damages. Not a smart move.

This is not an opinion--it is an analysis of the Watson trade scenario from the people who hold the cards--The HOUSTON TEXANS' FRONT OFFICE. They really are in control, and a wrong move could crush that organization. So for fun, I analyzed how this might play out. Enjoy. I accept Bitcoin but do not accept criticism. This is not about emotion and what I want--this is as objective as I could get. Slow time of year, so I thought I would analyze this so I could understand and predict. If it helps you, you're welcome. If this makes you mad or butt hurt, it is only speculation. Since Texas holds the cards, it is from their perspective. Scenario 1: Keep Watson. You are basically the captain of a mutinous ship--you have lost a great WR, a hall of fame DL, and now, the fan base is watching to see what you do with a top 5 QB who is demanding a trade. Keep Watson, you have a fan base that knows the QB wanted out (assuming he does not hold out) and force him to honor his contract. Scenario 2: Trade a top 5 QB and get picks that will help you rebuild. The Jets and Dolphins each have 2 first round picks in 2021. Both teams have a recently-drafted, first round QB to deal. The Panthers, on the other hand, have the eighth overall pick and second first round pick. If I am Houston, I look for a QB to come in who can develop into the QB just dealt. If that is the case and I want a veteran QB and two first rounders, Miami makes the most sense if they like Tua-- they would get Tua, the 3rd, and the 18th pick in 2021 (maybe more). I then TRADE the #3 overall pick back for more picks. Theoretically, you get a young QB and 3-4 picks in the top 50. So if the Panthers are looking to trade up with Miami, they have to wait for the Watson trade to happen or not. If it does not, and they are not happy with Tua, they will want a QB. Scenario 2a: If the Texans trade with the Jets, then I doubt Darnold at QB will appease the fans in Houston as much as Tua, so we could assume Houston will take Wilson if they trade with the Jets, and get other picks. This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. The Jets have the cap space ($68m) and the large market that needs a large name to attract fans. The Texans landing the #2 QB in the draft might save jobs. Scenario 2c: Houston dangles Watson for picks #3, #18 and Tua. If this deal were to go down, Houston may be interested in trading out of #3 or they may take Sewell or a stud WR--but they would likely not take a QB. In almost every scenario, the #3 pick seems to be one that is available for trade. Scenario 3: The Panthers are the last man standing after the Dolphins and the Jets opt for less-expensive options (one takes Wilson, the other stays with Tua). The Jets can not only draft Wilson, the can trade Darnold, and have a QB on a 4-year, rookie contract. They can build around him instead of trading away a bunch to Houston. Miami has a high first round draft pick QB from 2020 and they are developing and they might not want to bring in a big contract. They have about $23m in cap room--signing Fitzpatrick for a year might be the move for them, while trading the pick to build the roster with cheap rookie contracts. On paper, Watson does not make sense right now. I do not see them trading. Keep Tua and build the roster with picks and the remaining cap or give the picks and cap room and Tua to Houston for Watson-possible, but I do not see the wisdom. Longshot prediction--A three-team deal: In this case, the #3 pick becomes something both the Panthers want as plan B and the Texans want as Plan A. Houston does not have the capital to move up to #3 if Miami is not in the market. Here is where a three-team trade would be ideal. Houston trades Watson to Carolina for CMC, Thompson and #8 overall, including a first rounder in 2022 and 2023. Houston then sends the #8 overall and maybe the first rounder in 2022 to Miami for #3. Miami then sends the #3 pick to Houston. This way, all teams get what they want- Houston gets a first rounder in 2023, the #3 pick in the draft (a QB), CMC and Thompson (for example). Miami gets #8 in the draft, a first rounder in 2022. Carolina gets Watson, QB Or simply move up to #3 for Lance or Fields. If that falls through or Houston wants to keep Watson, the Panthers can trade up with Miami for #8 overall and the first in 2022 and a player like Thompson. With that pick, they can choose Lance or Fields. That is how I think this thing plays out based on what facts are available, but there are hundreds of ways it can go. Slow news, but this helped me put the QB possibilities in perspective. (I would say there is about a 40% chance we trade with Miami) So

RACIST!!!! Fire sticks is what the native Americans called guns. This painting is called, WHITE MAN FIRE STICKS. I can't believe that you replaced a slur with a slur. Jeez. (Just kidding--I know what you meant, but it made me laugh) Actually, it is funny that the NBA team had to change from "bullets" because it was too violent and only now is a team name based on a race's skin color considered offensive.

Many of you have PM'd me and asked, What do you think, MHS? I appreciate the desire for my input, but I have a life---the mail piled on my porch--the parade of people clogging the street at the end of my driveway---getting old. So here it is: Lawrence: Jax will not trade--next. 2a Lance: While I really like Wilson, Lance has incredible upside. 2b. Wilson: I think Wilson is more boom or bust than Lance, although he is more pro-ready than Lance right now. He is not going to get stronger or bigger, imo, so I wonder if he will be durable. 3. Fields. You can say, "whatabout Watson?" but one exception to a rule is an excuse, not a dismissal. I would say back (referring to recent Ohio St QBs: Whatabout Haskins? Troy Smith? Miller? Jones? etc. etc. Should OSU QBs scare you? I think he can be successful, but I am not sure about a running qb without demonstrated defense-reading literacy. The talent is there--assume you have to develop him. In other words, regardless of all this noise, he is likely a 2022 starting QB, not a 2021. Same for Lance, fwiw, and maybe Wilson. 4. Forget QB. Maybe pick up Mond or Newman late and see if you can develop them as the #3,

But you remembered it enough to call it forgettable. This is getting intense. Seriously, he has an injury history dating back to Bama. He might be a better fit now than he was. I hope to see him step up.

He was not a good tackle when he was here. Maybe at the end of his career--I barely remember him. FUN FACTS: Andre the Giant, as I understand it, died while living in a secluded home in Ellerbe NC (Near Rockingham). He too was an actor, playing in one of my favorite movies of all time, THE PRINCESS BRIDE He was a drinking buddy of mine (kidding) "Andre once admitted to David Letterman that he consumed 119 12-ounce beers in a single sitting. However, former wrestler Mike Graham stated that Andre actually reached 156 beers in one sitting. This was confirmed in an episode of Legends of Wrestling by “The American Dream” Dusty Rhodes and Michael Hayes."

That sounds about right. Here is what I heard: 1, Trevor 2 Wilson 3. Lance 4 Fields (do not want) x that's it.

I called both of them and apologized.

My problem (as if this is the only one) is that I do not trust Alabama QBs, Ohio State QBs, or QBs from FCS schools. I guess there are some decent/not recent BYU QBs. Probably (and I have not thought this through) the best QBU lately has been NC State.

Jones---if you give him a great OL, a CMC, and good WRs and a good TE, he could be about like Locke in Denver, maybe better. If he is there in the second, I am not sure I would take him. A QB needs to be a stud or you don't have one. It is a wasted pick. If Grier was drafted in round 5, you still would have no QB--just a better round to waste a pick

So you are saying that because they could not see him, they could not make a decision about him? They could not communicate with his surgeon? They could not communicate with his rehab team? He could not have sent them range of motion videos, film of him passing? Cam was picking and choosing what he wanted teams to see and know. One scout tweeted, (paraphrasing) Cam wants us to kick the tires after we buy the car. It don't work that way." The league has a grapevine--there may be secrets hidden from the public, but people generally know. Cam had red flags. Cam may have had a good game with his repaired shoulder, but it does not take long for those ligaments and tendons to stretch out and become "fatigued". Shoulder surgery ended my career in college, so I have some idea of how it feels. Some snap back, but you can't tape a shoulder to give it support. It is either fully repaired or it is not. Cam looked like a new car, but he was burning oil.

I am kidding myself then. Like Cam, a QB's life expectancy is not measured in years or organic nutribars. Wilson has been hit a lot, and he does not have the frame Cam has. https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/831-hits-counting-toll-cam-newtons-punishing-playing/story?id=42831795

The STARTING POINT is 3 firsts--the ENDING POINT will be much lower if they are serious.

Marty made CMC expendable when he signed him to that deal. He is such a person who gets called dumbass a lot.

A lot of this mystery will be resolved in March---but it is tough waiting that long.

I am of the same mindset--Miami, if they are really ready to move on from their first round, coming off injury QB, and will give up a bunch of picks to do so...Or do they sit there and take Lance or Fields--or trade back a bit and GAIN a pick and take Lance or Fields? Just does not make that much sense. The Jets? They are in position to get Wilson, and he is widely considered to be the best QB in the draft not named Trevor. They need picks to build a bad roster--are they really going to trade away a first rounder in 2022 to get Watson over Wilson? That makes no sense, which is why they might do it. The Dolphins have some picks this year, but they are hardly a complete team. They are the team, however, that threatens the Panthers' chances the most, imo.

Whoa!! This needs its own thread title: BurnNChinn has a friend. (is it Mr. Scot?)

Cam could have embarrassed him. "Kid, you will know when I am poor when I move in next door to you." "You remind me of myself at your age; only I had already hit puberty." "By the look of those blisters, you are right handed and single."

Yep. A real peach.

I am not sure what you mean--I just throw ideas out to stretch our thinking on it. I do not visit the Huddle to have my narrow-minded opinions confirmed. I am wrong too much---I really do not understand the thought/question. I think I know what you meant, and I am not endorsing this as option A. I am not even endorsing it at all--just thinking it through from a positive perspective.

We need an evaluator who can match the skill set to the system and gauge the potential for success. We (Huddlers) look at stats and scoreboards and say, "He sucks." But at one time, Mariota was one of the top 2 QBs in college football. I do not see bust in this case, I see bad fit. But I am not an expert--which is why I like to hear alternative opinions and I do not care for the armchair GMs who think a QB at 22 is better than a veteran at 27. There are a lot of QBs in the NFL that have resurrected their careers in a new town with a new coach. This year, with all the movement looking for Watson, R Wilson, top 4 draft picks, somebody is going to overlook a player that simply needs the right fit. I wish I had the eye to know who and where.