MHS831

While not a rumor, an interesting thought that could involve the Panthers (Think Higgins, Tee):

Not checking to see if these rumors have been reported: Giants working hard to deal with Pats

Yes!!! And the odds that we hit on 2 WRs in this draft are even smaller! Since we added Johnson and have Thielen for another season, maybe we should draft 1 that is most likely to be successful at the next level. Someone who gets away from press coverage and runs good routes that create separation. Adding Johnson was HUGE. Lombardi referenced a stat on McAfee's show that was focused on the success rate of first round WRs--I think it was 27%--the lowest. That would suggest that second round WRs succeed about 15-20% of the time---making the Panther results not abnormal.

If it is a player that we know we would like a 5th year option, it could be wise to do so. However, the trade would have to be with KC or SF, imo--and they would be losing the fifth year option. I do not think the odds are 20%--I would say 10%, based only on my hunches. This is the "F YOU, FITTERER!!!" Draft. Last year was the "F YOU, PANTHER FANS!!" Draft:

I think that Caleb is going to be good. After that, it depends where they go: Maye If he goes to Minnesota or the Giants, he has a better supporting staff than Daniels will in Washington. New England would not be the best situation for Maye, imo. He will be able to watch for a season in NY--possibly in Minnesota. If Daniels goes to Washington, he will be on his own, but the Commanders have a lot of draft capital. Penix is not going to do well in Vegas until they get the OL worked out. However, he can sit for a season there. I see them as a potential trading partner with Carolina: Washington picks in top 100: Round 1 (2) Round 2 (36) Round 2 (40) Round 3 (67) Round 3 (78) Round 3 (100) McCarthy is going to land in a pretty good situation. Either the Giants (where he will sit for a season) or Minnesota is better than Washington or New England.

Samuel and LaFell are washes, imo. Neither more than a decent slot or a marginal Z WR.

Moose and Smith are the reason we were in the Super Bowl.

I added a few comments about each that I recall or have recently read See comments above---I had to go back and read articles etc. about Colbert, Jarrett, etc.

For those of us screaming for a WR on day 2, there is this: Day 2 WRs drafted by Panthers (round) 2023: Jonathan Mingo (2) 2021: Terrace Marshall Jr. (2) 2017: Curtis Samuel (2) 2015: Devin Funchess (2) 2010: Brandon Lafell (3); Armanti Edwards (3) 2007: Dwayne Jarrett (2) 2004: Keary Colbert (2) 2001: Steve Smith (3) 1997: Muhsin Muhammad (2)

This is based on need and the expected availability in the draft: 33. Trade to get a second rounder next year and a third or fourth this year. imagine we need a QB like Denver and are sitting there at #12 without a second rounder. Say we drop to pick 50. 39. Wide Receiver (a quality WR should be there---Pearsall, Coleman, Franklin, Worthy, Legette, or Worthy--all have a 50% chance or better to be there) Do not be surprised if the Panthers pick Mike Saindristil. 50. Inside Linebacker: Cooper (Tex AM) or Wilson (NCSU). The Panthers have a history of Dawg LBs and have not been successful without one. 65. Nickel CB (I would consider moving up for Sandristril here to about 55. If not, CB Max Melton (Rutgers) Of course, if an edge falls of a top C is there, I might go another direction--if Powers-Johnson is at #39, I take him. 101: This is the sweet spot for a backup Center: Nourzad (Penn St), Pran Granger (Georgia); We could find some fallen value at Edge: Eliss (Utah), and Austin Booker (Kansas). RB: Ray Davis (KY), Blake Forum (Mich)

It is starting to look like it--such a run on WR at the end of the draft-- If Nix is there, it could make pick #33 marketable. Same for JPJ. Powers-Johnson (C) To me, a pro-bowl level C for the next decade is worth a second rounder. (see Kalil, Ryan) Legette (WR) There are rumors that Kansas City and New England like him. Coleman (WR) An early favorite, he has tailed off. The big Mike Evans WR Canales may covet? Sainitstril (CB) Lotta folks projecting the nickel CB to the Panthers Rakestraw (CB) Probably not. Pearsall (WR) Possible, but only if we trade back to the mid second? Wilson (LB) I can't see Morgan not falling in love with Wilson. We always seem to draft LBs when we think we don't need them (Beason to replace Morgan; Luke to replace Beason) Cooper (LB) He can't read the play as quickly as Wilson, but he is a dawg who can cover ground. I'd take him over Wilson due to the injury history--since I do not have access to medicals) Franklin (WR) The guy nobody is talking about. Worthy (WR) The success of Zay Flowers and Tank Dell have helped Worthy. Frazier (C)

Center is very interesting. If Corbett is telling the truth and he can play C, then I wonder "at what level" and "who is your backup?" After watching the interview with Powers-Johnson, I would love his presence in the locker room. However, I actually had a dream about this, and we drafted Ladd McConkey and Mike Sainistil. We drafted a LB in the third, but I don't know if that was part of my dream or if it was what I told my wife when I was cuddling with her after a traumatic nightmare. I am kidding--I would actually like that draft. Not sure if the Sainistil pick was a trade back or not. Still feeling that we are going to trade back #33. I see possibly Denver moving up for Nix, offering us a future second rounder and a third this season to do so. As for edge--I just think there is a bit of a gap between rounds 1 and late 2. Best to wait and see if Elliss or someone like that drops. Please, no RBs or TEs until day 3.

My bad. No wonder I missed 8 of 13 questions. I was rushing a bit--but no excuse. I should have checked the date. I did not take it myself until late last night. We had a family crisis and I was rushing to get this out before leaving. Abort Quiz. Happy Draft Day, regardless. I am seeing a lot of last second mocks showing Legette to Pats at 32.

Probably already been stated, but Canales was asked about it--said, (paraphrasing) "Yeah, I told him that. I told about 50 others that too. Part of the process." I think both Legette and Walker would love to stay home.

think about it--we added starters at G, G, X WR, and (in a weird way) C. That is 4/11 positions on offense. On defense, we have already added Robinson (DE), Clowney and Wonnum (OLBs), Jewell (ILB), Jackson (CB), and Fuller (S). If you consider the fact that we are getting Thompson back from IR, that makes 7/11 new starters on defense. Only Horn and Hill (CBs), Tuttle (DT) and Brown (DE) are returning starters. We could use a nickel and depth at CB, a "dawg" LB to play behind our 30-year-old ILBs, and I am not sure how they feel about edge. On offense, we could upgrade Mingo, Chubba, and TE. If I had to pick the top 3 needs in relation to this draft, I would go (Considering who we have and how much a rookie would upgrade the position-even if it is in a reserve role): 1. Nickel CB (Hill is 33 and Horn is hurt all the time. Not much behind them. 2. ILB depth (the new Kickoff rule will value linebackers, in my opinion) 3. Z Receiver (Mingo had a decent season under these circumstances as a rookie--43 receptions on 83 yards, however, is not ideal. Could mean separation is an issue, or timing. Still, I think they should start him at the beginning of the year at least. A third round-fifth round WR like Rice, Walker, McCaffery etc. who can compete with Mingo but take over the slot role in 2025 could be to move here. Instead of putting the #33rd pick on the seventh or eighth best WR, use those picks to fill other more pressing needs. We have 2 good, established WRs who have had 1000 yard seasons. Mingo had 418 yards as a rookie. WR is a need, but are we blowing it out of proportion? 1

After watching the 360 program on NFL Network (I think), I am emotionally drawn to drafting UNC's Walker. Here is why: He has the tools. His critics complain about his route running. After all he'd been through, I wonder if he ever really had a coach work on mechanics. Canales wants the staff to be developmental. Walker would appreciate being in Charlotte for his grandma--think that is a small deal? Watch the video. We may be the team best equipped to maximize his potential. Not in the second round, but the third? Add what Lomabardi said about the best WRs in the NFL not being from the first round--Walker could be a steal in the third.

I feel better about Corbett being the center.

Which seems to have worked with discarded QBs.

Same page--I wonder (to his point) if Walker, Rice, and Pearsall don't outperform the first round bunch (excluding the three Amigo WRs Rome, Harrison, and Nabors). I feel like they are going to draft a CB/LB early and we should double dip at WR--but what if you took Rice and McCaffery, for example, instead of Worthy and McCorley? If we take Worthy and McCorley, we miss out on the LB/CBs. If we take LB, OL, CB early and take advantage of the draft by understanding that rounds 3 and 4 have some guys who might be better fits into our system? That is the Twist I got from this video. This is going to be very interesting.

I think all of us keep having our rookie years. Hard to predict. That is why this draft is fun--we get to learn a bit about Morgan (hopefully a Tepperless version) and the coaches.

The Lombardi video I posted in another thread a few minutes ago--Lombardi says, "You want to know what a team is going to do, look at the depth chart." He also mentioned how only 27% of first round WRs succeed and how most of the good WRs in the NFL were day 2 and 3 players in the draft? We have 2 30-year old ILBs (Jewell and Thompson). Not much behind them at all. LB is a huge need. At CB, we have oft-injured Horn, Dane Jackson, and 33-year old Troy Hill at nickel. Not much behind them. At WR, we have Johnson (a decent X), Thielen (a solid slot in his last year), and Mingo, a second year player at Z. Behind them, we have Smith Marsette and MAYBE TMJ. We could use a player to challenge Mingo and/or to groom for the slot position. I contend that this is not as big of a need early as LB or CB. We could argue that C is in the cards.

The depth chart tells you all you need to know (about what a team is going to do). Basically says the players we think are first rounders don't matter--what player does the team think they can get the most out of--(inference: upside and match for the system) Noted that WRs are the toughest to evaluate--said the best WRs in the NFL are second and third day (or round) players. Note that first round WRs hit 27% of the time. (Chart below). Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous. It seems to me that Pearsall, Rice, McCaffery, and maybe even Dez Walker might be better risks--according to this logic. I found this to be interesting: (Makes me want to draft C at 33.

VERY interesting look at the behind-the-scenes look at draft. This changed my perspective. Gotta listen to what he says about WRs--makes me want to draft WR later.

This is a two-part quiz that takes 5 minutes to take--if you need modification, they are available. Once you submit the answers to the first 2 questions (3 total answers) you take the USA Today online NFL Draft Quiz. Complete the template below in your response. Later tonight (after 8 pm), I will share the answers to the first two questions--please do not share your results until after 8 PM. Obviously, if you choose not to participate, just don't participate and leave the replies for those who want to do this. (Honor system--Googling is CHEATING) 1. Franchises with the most #1 picks in NFL History (2 are correct), so this counts as 2 points, 1 for each correct answer: a) Bucs b) Jets c) Colts d) Rams e) Oilers/Titans 2. How many #1 overall picks for the teams above were the most in NFL history? a) 3 b) 5 c) 6 d) 7 e) 9 OK for the next 10 questions, go to the link and take the 10 question online quiz. Report your answers for the 2 questions above and the number correct from your online quiz. https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2021/11/01/nfl-draft-history-trivia-quiz/ SCALE: 12-13 correct: Draft Royalty - you probably cheated though. 10-11 correct: Stud. Your brain is full of useless information. 8-9 correct: Mr. or Mrs. Mediocre, which has probably been your goal for some time. 6-7 correct: Snorkeler: You can't quite reach the surface of the NFL knowledge pool, but you are close. 4-5 correct: Life Support Recipient. The people around you are Huddlers voting when to pull the plug. 0-3 correct: Blue Tent Dweller. You scored below random chance, meaning a toddler or monkey could have done better. Stay in the blue tent. The team is doing well without your input. There is a non-monetary reward and consequence for being the top and low score. All in fun.

The Harbaugh Chargers will be interesting. Harbaugh likes to build the OL, but he could be sitting on Nabors at #5. He can't take Alt when a stud like Nabors is sitting at a position of need. He also needs a LT--There is a chance that either or both Tyler Guyton (OK) and/or Jordan Morgan (Ariz) is sitting there at #33. I could see a trade with the Chargers wherein we drop from 33 to 37 and add a fourth or fifth. That may not sound dramatic, but this draft has some solid players late (CB is remarkably deep, as is WR).