MHS831

Signing Chard means that we are not necessarily tied to drafting a WR in round 2. That opens up my mocking--yes, its true. I am a mocker.

Chark is not ideal, but he has to be the #1 target right now.

At least he is not a ginger.

I have just seen young players who are underutilized totally break out when the opportunity presents itself. With Robbie/Robby/Chosen and DJ suddenly gone, opportunity is now. Most are thinking that Marshall is a near bust and Shenault is a French swiss army knife, and I think that is not the case. We shall see.

Disclaimer: The following contains speculation supported with statistical analyses to make some general comments that should demonstrate how the Panthers' front office has already provided our new QB some options. The numbers are practical guesstimates, based on a player's past performance and ability to remain healthy. Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR) Terrace Marshall will be turning 23 in June. He played in 13 games in 2022, and was targeted 47 times, gaining 490 yards on 28 receptions. In games where he was targeted over 3 times (4 games) he averaged 61.5 yards per game. Putting that into perspective, it would equate to 1045 yards if he was consistently targeted more than 3 times per game over a 17-game season. So whatever the reason he did not get more looks—poor route running or poor QB play-- averaging over 10 yards per target is impressive. As the 22-year old enters year three in the NFL, expect an increase in productivity and maturity. His mechanics should be better, and this new coaching staff will become evident in his development. Do not sell TMJ short; as the #2 WR, I see a year where he is targeted 5-7 times per game, something that should boost his targets from under 50 to over 100. While it is doubtful that he maintains a 10-yard-per-target average, it is reasonable to expect a 700-800 yard season out of Marshall simply by increasing his targets to 6 per game. If so, that increases his productivity by 200-300 yards. Laviska Shenault (WR) Most Huddlers would agree that Shenault was not used well last season with the Panthers. He was not asked to run the route tree as much as he was used as a wrinkle or gimmick. Looking at the 16 games he played in Jacksonville (as they struggled to find an offense there) he was targeted 100 times and finished the season with 619 yards. With a poor OL and a QB trying to figure things out, when targeted about 6 times per game, he was able to average close to 40 yards per game. With a better OL and better QB play (hopefully), Shenault should be able to return to 2021 form. In 2022, Carolina targeted Shenault under three times per game and finished with 272 yards—half as often as he was targeted in Jacksonville, and Shenault caught 27/32---an impressive number. A reasonable projection would be to increase the targets to Shenault to 50-60 and get Shenault to a total of 500 yards for the season, increasing Shenault's productivity by about 200-250 yards. Hayden Hurst (TE) In 2022 with the Bengals, Hayden played 13 games and was targeted just over 5 times per game for an average of 32 yards per game. Here in Carolina in 2022, for the last 4 seasons, Ian Thomas was targeted fewer that twice per game, and in each of the last 4 seasons, Thomas has been under 200 yards receiving. So if Hurst continues his current level of productivity, we double the yardage from the starting TE and we add a target in the red zone. Expect Hurst to be targeted around 5 times per game and have about 500-600 yards in Carolina this season, considering the lack of a true, alpha WR. This would increase productivity from the starting TE around 300-400 yards. Miles Sanders (RB) Forget the fact that Sanders has averaged 927 yards per season rushing the ball since being drafted 4 years ago, this is about his receiving capabilities. He was probably underutilized as a pass catcher in Philly since Hurts took over as QB, which is why I think he will become an all-pro in Carolina. In 2019, the Eagles targeted Sanders 63 times for 509 yards in 16 games. In 2021 and 2022, the Eagles targeted Sanders only 34 and 26 times (in 17 games) respectively, signifying the changes that coincided with Jalen Hurts becoming the QB. His receiving numbers became rather pedestrian. In 2022, D’Onta Foreman had 9 targets for 26 yards, and Chubba Hubbard had 17 targets for 117 yards. Expect Sanders use as a receiver to escalate to somewhere in the area of 50 targets, meaning that we could expect to more than double our RB receiving numbers to somewhere around 400 yards, improving RB receiving yardage 200-250 yards (this is modest). SUMMARY The suggested targets to each individual comes to 15 targets per game, leaving about 15 targets (the NFL average is about 30 pass attempts per game) for the #1 WR and the #3/4 WR and other players. If these estimates hold up, the increase in productivity--through maturation, better utilization, and upgrades should improve the receiving efficiency by about 1000 yards--the number of yards we lost when we traded DJ Moore. The point being, we do not have to add a 1000-yard WR in free agency to avoid total ruin. We can add a solid pro and a draft pick and we'd be so much improved in the passing game. While I am breathing into brown paper bags when someone says, "Wide Receiver" in my vicinity, we simply need to bring in a solid #1 WR and draft a rookie. If our current talent develops as I think they will (by being used properly and having a better QB), we should be fine.

I do think reaching to fill needs has been proven to be an ineffective way of filling the roster.

They will have a month to adjust the cap before signing draft picks--in fact, I think they start signing them around June 1. So about 2 months. I think they do what they have to do now, and then find the $13 m or so in the sofa cushions after free agency. Remember, they also need about $4m in a slush fund to sign free agents when players go to IR. --They will be signing a WR before turning to the draft. We probably all know that. IMO, we need a higher end WR, so Chark, Beckham, Landry, Thielen. Hardman--

I see that. BPA is always the best idea. Remember when we drafted Beason when we had Morgan--I was like, "WTH?" It turned out to be a good pick.

It is hard to overlook the TE talent this year--and I think that is where GMs get into trouble, so I definitely see your point. We have so much dead cap space and other immediate needs--it is hard to look beyond this year. Once we get the WR positions filled, I think the TE position will be increasingly important. So yeah, I see this 100% clearly, but when I look at the entire roster and attempt to comprehend the new defensive needs, I do get stuck in 2023.

If you look at NEEDS, then I say no, they are set at TE. I get the BPA concept and agree with it in some situations, but the Panthers must fill certain positions. They need 2 WRs--one top end (free agency) and another with upside (draft) They need depth at DE--aside from Williams and Brown, they have nothing (YGM is not a good fit) The need ILB Depth--hoping Smith steps up, but Thompson and Chinn (maybe) is pretty thin. They probably need depth at CB (Jackson is good for 8-12 games; Horn gets hurt. Henderson and Taylor? How did Tampa Bay like that last year?) They could probably use some depth at S since there is a chance we go 3 Safeties at times. So I do not see how drafting a TE would help--but you never know.

The Panthers must sign a free agent WR. Then I would think you must draft a WR at 39. I understand why they are slow playing this one---there are a lot of WRs on the board, and nobody is paying oft-injured Chard $10m in this market. The players will soon realize that paying a QB 20% of your cap is costing the teammates, not the owners.

Landry was injured last year and I do not know the details--but we should consider him--he has averaged about 800+ yards per season for a career---nobody is talking about him.

OK--that does not mean that Young's body is more vulnerable. Cam had a different body from Russ (much more impressive and durable looking) and he was injured a lot more. You would have to build the OL and the QB would have some ground rules--but the part of the body that matters most on a QB is that part between the ear holes.

Yes. Russ at 31 has a different body type than Young at 21. He is 7/8" taller and when he was 21, weighed the same--you say that Young will not hold up and you state it as a fact. My counter to that is a comparison with Wilson who has a very similar playing style--one that has allowed him to miss only 4 games in 11 seasons. His size was not a factor because he was very elusive, smart, and did not take hits. I am suggesting the same thing for Young. By the way, Cam Newton was 6'5" and 250 lbs while Russell Wilson was 5'11" 210-215. How many games did he miss during the 11 years Russ was with Seattle?

I did not know the context, which is why I asked. So you are referring to leaks that are coming from an official capacity--from people with first hand info. However, I would say that if the tightness of information is that intentional, that everyone in the building would be silenced--but you are basically saying the info you get is second hand and based on interpretations of snapshots that may not be valid. I would think if the Panthers found out that he was doing this, he might get into some hot water, based on the thread title. I agree--things have been very quiet compared to prior regimes.

I have to wonder if the Panther staff is not having the same arguments about these players or if they are far beyond this aspect.

The combine measures a lot of things, but processing speed is not one of them. You can't cherry pick your points--we are talking about different players with different strengths and different weaknesses. Again, I prefer Stroud, but I make arguments for Young to demonstrate objectivity. Maybe it is time to wake up. Kidding--but you have to look at the complete player--compare Young's college film to Russell's. I'd take Young.

I think he needs to run when he sees green grass and all breaks down, which is different than the designed runs some teams are employing. Josh Allen, for example, seems to enjoy running and being aggressive. it has led to fumbles and might even decrease the length of his career (see Newton, Cam). Stroud can do much more damage with is perfect timing and accuracy. To me, Day was right--no need to run him. Punt or get it the next play. For the record, I am arguing for Young only as an exercise. I want Stroud, but to see the entire picture, you have to be able to objectively analyze both sides. (We are OSU fans--my wife's family is from Columbus and OSU graduates--so I try to be objective--but Stroud is the safe pick--and he is, in my opinion, the most likely to have a long, successful career.)

You are adding 5+ pounds to Wilson at age 30 and comparing him to a rookie coming out of college. At Wilson's combine, he was 204. You have to give Bryce the same opportunity to add weight. Wilson is 215, according to the NFL site. However, I do not see Bryce carrying that much weight. I am guessing he needs to be at about 205-210, and it may take a year or so to get there adding muscle.

Did you not have a person who is not high in the organization giving you information? I might be wrong or misinterpreting your meaning.

So you are saying the Young played at 170 lbs? That would mean that he gained 34 lbs between early January and early March. I guess the better question is this: Where is the line (weight) that determines a player is too small to play QB in the NFL? I literally do not know, but I can say that QBs are babied now, protected like the Pope at a biker convention. Since the QB started getting protected more, the smaller QBs have emerged. The game has changed as well. So if you teach a player to slide and check down quicky (which he can do) and throw it out of bounds, can you prolong his career? Russell Wilson did that better than anyone, and he missed 4 games in 11 seasons in Seattle. Young needs to add size--muscle weight and there seems to be room for it. I prefer Stroud, but if we go with Young, I know we are getting a solid, smart, QB.

The best reason to pick Young over Stroud? If I were the GM, I would take Stroud. I like Young a lot, but Stroud has done what was asked of him at a very high level, and he is accurate, smooth, and unflappable. You can say the same for Young. So does this come down to processing and size? If the processing is not clearly advantage Young, I'd go with Stroud. For the Record, I am terrible at predicting success for NFL QBs.

His playing style is more aggressive and what worked in high school and college for him (running) is probably not the ticket for a long NFL career. I am interested to see what this new coach does with him.