MHS831

I am thinking like Scott Fitterer here, not MHS: "Sure, I would take first rounders to give up on Young and take Stroud or AR---if you give me picks #2 and #12 this year--I would do it. That is unlikely, so we are going with the guy who made us move up in March--Bryce" And I do not think Ryans or the Texans would do it. He is a defensive-minded coach and he does not see bringing in a QB to pilot a ship that is still under construction. (based on his recent presser).

When Person says, "Sources tell me..." he means us.

And across the Carolinas on that warm evening in late April, near and distant pistol shots littered the night air like July 4th fireworks, soon followed by emergency sirens as new widows run crying through the streets....

If you consider the upside and all variables, you could have a very valid point--

I think it will be an edge or CB. I think CB would freak people out, but I see it as (perhaps) a bigger need. The OLB/edge position could feature more Luvu and maybe even Chinn with Grugier-Hill and Smith filling in at Luvu's ILB spot. That could minimize the need for an edge rusher...and I have always thought, "Don't grab your edge in round 2..." but this year just seems excessively deep at edge. Edge players tend to do well at combines, all star games, and pro days because they are incredible athletes that feast in those settings. CB, however, is an interesting story. Jackson is coming off an achilles tear and they take time. He was injured in November, so his recovery could take up to nine months (August, 2023). Horn has had serious injuries to his foot and wrist, both putting him on IR. Behind them, you have Henderson who has spent 3 seasons with a PFF score in the 50s--he is a serviceable backup--preferably, a #4. Taylor has also been rated in the low 50s (PFF) and he is also a backup--preferably, a #5. Now, we are switching to a 3-4 and that will involve more cover 2 and 4--(zones) and that could work to their favor--I dunno. I still think we need another guy with starting potential.

I honestly think all QBs are risks, and I understand the appeal of AR--but when has he been great? When has Bryce not been great?

He is an incredible athlete and watching him throw is amazing. I just think you don't pull the cake out of the oven because it smells good now--

Here is what bothers me about AR: 1. He scores well on the S2 (reportedly a home run even though others possibly scored higher). 2. He flicked the ball 70 yards at the combine. 3. He ran in the 4.4s 4. He completed 53% of his passes at Florida and did not say, "I need another year in college". 5. He has one season as a starting QB in college and did not say, "I need another year in college." Yes, you could argue that his WRs dropped passes (because that only happens at UF) and you could argue that he is going to be an early first round pick. Is that because AR is good or because he has the skill set to be good and desperate teams are willing to take extraordinary risks to get a franchise QB? I think the best advice would have been to stay in school, get 20+ games of experience. Show the world that the 53% completions in 2022 was a fluke. Work on your mechanics. Be the #1 overall pick in 2024.

I saw him with Steve Mariucci doing a white board chat and he seemed brilliant. I think he is a career backup with starting potential in a few years.

Not sure how it has been validated, except people are saying Brock Purdy is the poster boy for it. Still, it is an interesting concept. In fact, they should put a mini S2 in your car and if you don't pass it after a certain hour it calls an Uber for you.

When you have Young scoring in the 90s, Levis scoring in the 90s, and AR "knocked it out of the park"--what does that even mean? Listen, he could be great, but he hasn't been great yet. I say the same for Levis. Young has never been NOT great. Discuss. Seriously--nobody knows--but AR is a gamble because game tape does not have bouncing dots or white boards. The combine does not have QBs throw vs. a rush and coverage. So when all is said and done, go back to the tape. AR could be great--and knowing that the Panthers are probably going with Young, it scares me because AR could be better one day--but not today.

I don't think Houston and Coach Ryans is going to trade up for a QB right now that they can't protect. They have too many needs. It does make sense, however, for them to trade back, collect a few extra picks, and go hard after a QB next year--the pickings will be better next year than this year. I predict that they trade with someone like the Colts and get Anderson at #4 and maybe get a first in 2024 and pick 35 this year--there, they could land a WR--and they would have 2 firsts to get the QB they want in 2024.

Me too. If I were the Panthers, I would ask for #2 and #12 this year. Reading tea leaves: That could be why they brought in Joey Porter Jr. for a visit. Can you imagine getting Stroud and a stud CB? It could also explain why the Panthers are saving a bit more cap room than other teams.

Especially if we draft Young, but I can argue our second need for CB, WR, Edge--TE and OL just fall by default in my mind---but I see that point.

You are not alone--I think he will do both, and that could decrease the need at LB---hard to know until we see it.

In college I knew a "Rusty Nail."

I would not be surprised to see a WR drop (Hyatt, Johnson) or CB (Forbes, Ringo).

Same thought, but I counted 5 Edge players who will be taken in the first round. On average, 8 Defensive Linemen are taken in the first round, and Dane Brugler's top 100 list confirms this, with 5 edge players and three DTs--however, I counted another 5 who I think are impact players and they are listed between picks 33 and 60: 33. Ojulari (LSU), 44. Felix (Kansas State), 46. Will McDonald (Iowa State), 47. White (Ga Tech), 58. Derrick Hall (Auburn); and 60. Foskey (Notre Dame). We have had Ojulari and Hall in for visits. An interesting point I came across in an article from a KC Chief website concerning "success rates" for positions taken in various rounds: DB: Second round: 46% success rate; third round: 24% success rate. WR: Second round: 49% success rate; third round: 25% success rate. TE: Second round 50% success rate; third round: 39% success rate. Forgetting about edge rushers because the stats did not specifically categorize 3-4 OLBs, it seems the best chances for success would be to take a WR in round 2 and a TE in round 3. However, I do not see the WR group being that great in round 2--if 5 go in round 1 (Jaxon Smith-Nj, Addison, Flowers, Hyatt, and Johnson), I see Downs as the only possible selection. I do not see there being a wide selection of CBs from which to choose in round 2 either, unless 35. Forbes or 36. Ringo drop. Therefore, I would expect the team to go Edge at 39 and maybe TE at 92 or so, based solely on these percentages and the talent that could be there at the time of the pick. If so, we are in trouble at CB and WR> It is hard to gauge edge rushers according to the info I had because they seem to be included with DL and LBs are another group. However, I think the edge rushers are deep in this draft.

Thanks. I do have too much free time--sitting in a rest home with my aunt (I am her closest relative) who is on hospice care---this is really a nice escape during the waiting.

It sure does.

I think Richardson will bust. A great athlete, but no resume. He should have played another season in college. It is one thing to think you have a first round grade, but the objective for a QB needs to be that second contract, not the first.

I heard that if Houston cannot get Young, they might trade out or take Anderson. If that is true, I see them possibly making a substantial offer to the Panthers. A few weeks ago, I thought it was silly to suggest such a trade since (in my mind) there were 2 elite QBs. As we get closer, it seems that there is Young and Stroud is on a lower level. Would you take the 2024 Houston first rounder to swap with Houston? (I know what the Stroud supporters would say, and I was one in the beginning and still like him--I think I would take that deal)

If they take the better QB, it is Young. If they take the better NFL QB in three years, ????

In the weeks prior to the draft, it can get a bit slow. So I thought I would share. I decided to analyze each position to the best of my ability. Then I wanted to develop a strategy to enter the draft, based on need. I do these kinds of things to help me see it more clearly--but I thought I would share since I went to so much trouble. I realize there will be disagreements, but I wanted to see if we are pretty much on the same page--to me, we have 5 needs we MUST address in the draft, and I would love to see us grab a TE, but I doubt we do. DEFENSE OFFENSE MHS' Ranking of Needs: Here I considered the difficulty finding a quality player at that position, the impact the expected player would have, the immediate need, and the long-term need. This gets very difficult, but I settled with the following: 1. QB. Obviously 2. Edge. As of now, Burns is the only outside threat to pressure the QB. I expect Barno to improve and we know that we have depth in Haynes, but YGM ain't a good fit or good player (so far). Coincidentally, rarely do you have a draft where you can find quality edge players in early round 2--but that is the case this year. Grab one. 3. Cornerback. Horn and Jackson have been injured quite a bit, and Jackson is coming off an injury that could rob him of his best asset--quickness. Henderson and Taylor are most famous for appearances on Mike Evans' 2022 highlight video. 4. Wide Receiver. The Panthers need a play maker, and the future needs some talent. Some will put this need in front of CB and maybe even OLB/Edge, but I do not see it that way. Chark is often injured (hopefully that is not the case here) and Thielen is reportedly getting older. We can't trust Smith or TMJ yet, but I have faith that TMJ showed signs of the light coming on last year and Smith is the player we will upgrade. 5. Offensive Line: The Panthers need solid depth at all times, especially if they are going to draft Young. Personally, I question T depth (Coleman? not sure if he is there answer there), and I think G could use another player. If we take a hybrid, I would hope for a T/G hybrid as opposed to a C/G hybrid. C (Bozeman, McCray, Mays, and Tecklenburg is covered) 6. TE. Hurst is not the long-term solution, but he should be strong in 2023. Tremble should emerge from the developmental label into a solid TE, and I am high on Ricci as a receiving TE/hback. Thomas is great as a #3 TE; he just should not start. Still, with this draft, a solid TE is likely to drop to day 3 and if that happens, you take the BPA and upgrade your TE group. Based on my assumptions, here is my draft strategy. It is 100% accurate and it is exactly what the Panthers will do. That is all. I have spoken. (Seriously--it all depends on how things shake out--I could see the Panthers taking a WR or CB with the 39th pick.) 1. Round 1, pick 1 Quarterback: Bryce or CJ 2. Round 2, pick 39 OLB/ Edge: There are many ways we can throw players at this situation, but a pure, elite pass rusher is needed to take pressure off Burns and the inside pass rush. Panthers have had known contact with Ojulari (Edge, LSU) and Hall (Edge, Auburn), which suggests possible round 2 curiosity for an Edge. NOTE: These players should last throughout the second round, so Fitterer may trade back to the end. Names to watch: BJ Ojulari, LSU; Will McDonald IV, Iowa St; Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State; Derek Hall, Auburn…. 3. Round 3, pick 93 Cornerback: This may be a bigger need than WR because our CBs are often injured and their backups are often burned. The 3-4 will allow more zone in covers 2 and 4, so maybe this is not as big a need as thought. This draft has some talent at CB, and some could fall to late day 2. The Panthers have had Kansas State CB Julius Brents in for a visit, as have many other teams. That suggests third round curiosity. Names to Watch: Brents; Turner, Michigan; Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU; Rush, South Carolina; Smith, Minnesota; Ricks, Alabama… 4. Round 4, pick 114 Wide Receiver: There are surprising names that could fall past the third round. Charlie Jones and Jonathan Mingo have had visits with the Panthers, which could suggest a WR on day 3. Names to watch: Rice, SMU; Dell, Houston; Scott, Cincinnati; Mims, Oklahoma; and Perry, Wake Forest, Jones, Purdue; and Mingo, Mississippi…. 5. Round 4, pick 132 Tight End: While the Panthers may not show (on paper) an immediate need at TE, the class is deep, and a quality TE can possibly be found at the end of round 4. Perhaps a warning that this won’t happen is the fact that the Panthers do not seem to be showing interest at this time-- No TE are known to have interacted with the Panthers to date. This could be for OL depth and not TE. Names to Watch: Schoonmaker, Michigan; Wylie, Cincinnati; Latu, Alabama… 6. Round 5, pick 145 Offensive Line: With Mays and McCray backing up Christensen, Bozeman, and Corbett, perhaps a swing T to develop is in order. A few players who are injured right now may become a day 3 value, so I am targeting people who could fall. Names to Watch: Vorhees (injured G/T), USC; Javon Foster (LT), Missouri; McLendon, (RT/G) Georgia; McFadden (T/G), Clemson; Rouse (swing T), Stanford, Anthony Bradford, OG, LSU … 7. Undrafted Free Agents Names to Watch: Bumper Pool, ILB, Oklahoma