MHS831

We have added 2 starters. Hope we can find one more--maybe a nickel. The offense needs a TE and we should be much improved.

Basically, we were going to take the RB this round. We trade back, get a second rounder in 2025 and a fifth. We trade up from 52 to 46 for two fifths. In other words, we added a sorely needed second rounder in 2025 for a fifth rounder in 2024. We dropped a total of 7 spots.

Are you under the impression that he needs to suit up next week? You do realize the season starts in 5 months and he will be cleared July 1---right? Stewart was drafted during his surgery. In the first round. He was a good player. Point?

By the way---just be glad you are not a Falcon fan, although I think some of the people here are--the drafted a QB in round 1 and a DT rated around 100 in early round 2.

Where are these Debbie Downers coming from? Are they Cicadas? You get the best RB in the draft vs. the 10th best CB. I wanted the LB. However, a RB that can catch better that Chuba, block better than Chuba, and run better than Chuba--behind our new guards---I see it.

They don't have any games until September.

I am happy to get the fifth. That is the WR TE round of day 3.

what scares me? Are we targeting A RB? We should have a LB or two, a CB or two, and maybe even a WR or two--and probably any RB we want.

Moving back could mean they are targeting RB--

Not gonna lie--personally, this would upset me. There are only a few RBs in the league that rise above the status quo--dime a dozen label--and we had one here, but traded him. I just do not see a special back that makes me think we would be much better off with him. No CMCs, no Derrick Henrys.

We could really use a cb and LB, but if they are determined to build around Bryce--you can't do it as well with a sub par RB and generic TE. Maybe our thinking has been wrong.

We also need a back that can pass block. Chubba sucks in that area, and his hands are suspect. So aside from toting the rock, he is a liability--especially when we become one-dimensional as you describe.

The draft makes people upset because we all develop patterns and strong opinions about who we should draft and when that plan is breached, we have to readjust. I try to look at it from the perspective of what I think they are going to do, not what I know they need to do and if they don't, they are wrong. I must admit, I was hoping for a RB later, but a RB could be the most bang for the buck. There used to be a day when they were really coveted. I don't mind drafting a RB on day 2, but I mind giving them contract #2. I just wonder if the new Guards have not already addressed the problem.

Not referring to this thread specifically, but you have people who share absolutely nothing and they are the first to go on the attack. Never positive....

As a human being, I love this guy. His enthusiasm seems beyond expected--he mentions Mullins--he is so happy to be staying home--it seems. Man I want him to be the best.

He was at the stadium the other day on the sideline, planting some shrubs and putting a porch swing outside the blue tent. OK i am done.

My Joke on another thread was if we draft the CB from Bama McInstry. We could call them the Aid Brothers--Kool and First.

After Thomas Davis' third ACL surgery, I was pounding the drum for him to move on. He played his best ball after that and was solid for many more years. You just never know.

they said they would get him weapons. As much as we said that Chubba was solid last year, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry...That should improve with linemen, however.

Ever since they started selling $39 tablets on Amazon and McDonald's got free internet, Juan has been on a tear. \

I am guessing we might have a shot at Kool-Aid or Saintrisil. I am really getting tired of last names that are difficult to pronounce//remember.

Someone will trade up for him---Tennessee (38 or so) needs DL, I think. not buying this.

Historic Success Chart (this chart is nine years old, but it shows the basic pattern of success) The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Disclaimer: I realize the first thing some of you will attempt to do is discredit the validity of this empirical study in an attempt to invalidate any conclusions that differ from those you have developed without any degree of exhaustive research or mild inquiry--comparative analysis, data collection, or coding, etc. So I suppose I should apologize in advance for providing unsubstantiated and unapproved data for our casual consumption; if you'd like, I can get the address for those at Pro Football Reference who are responsible and allow you to contact them or seek compensatory damages. If this information is still relatively accurate, the probable success rate for our WR selection yesterday should be in the 55-58% range, considering the depth of the position in this year's draft. FUN FACTS: For those of you wanting to double dip at WR: The probability of starting drops in half each round from the second to fourth, and then (strangely) jumps from 12% to 16% in round 5, dropping back down to 9% in round 6...Notice the incredibly high (compared to the others) rate of success for TEs taken in rounds 5 and 6. TEs drafted in the fifth round nearly double the chance for starting when compared to nearly every other position. In the sixth round, the chance for TEs becoming a starter is 10% higher than the next highest position--5 times higher than a sixth round LB, for example. Statements that are related to the Panther situation based on this data: If we take a C in round 2 the chances of finding a starter are about three fourths (70%), the chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%). Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (46%) to a quarter (24%). If we take a LB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are just over a half (55%). Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (50%) to a quarter (24%). Finding a starting C in the third would drop from 70% to 40%. If we take a CB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are about 50%. the chances of finding a starting C would drop from 70% to 40% in round 3. The chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%) So what scenario gives us the highest percentage of finding 2 players in rounds 2 and 3 that give us the highest likelihood for finding starters? Round 2: Center 70%, LB 55%, CB, 50% Round 3: Center 40%, LB 34%, and CB 24% Other tips DAY 3: This is when you draft the TE. Between rounds 4-6, the percentage of finding a starter drops from 33% (rd 4) to 32% (rd. 5) to 26% (rd. 6). Recommendation: Draft your TE round 5. Round 4: This is when you draft a Defensive Lineman. 37% chance of becoming a starter. That is 10% higher than the third round and 24% higher than the fifth round. Round 5: The best round for drafting WR on day 3 (16% chance of starting). Round 7: Draft a defensive back. There is a one-in-nine chance of finding a starter--11%. PROGNOSIS: Based on this draft, If we draft Center (rd 2) and ILB (rd 3) and have the best chance of producing two starters 52% If we draft LB (rd 2) and Center (rd. 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 47%. If we draft a CB (rd 2) and LB (rd 3), the chance for producing 2 starters is 42%. If we draft a LB (rd 2) and CB (rd 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 39.5%.* * in my opinion, based on the depth of this draft, this is probably what the Panthers will do-- At any rate, this is not law or current, but it does give you some ideas--hope you enjoy it.

Those would be two nice additions at CB, but a bit of overkill. Neither takes me as a nickel, but I am not sure. The knock on Kool-Aid was they played more zone at Bama than ever before....I think we could double dip at CB, WR, and/or LB. We are really thin at CB and LB.

If it were me, I would take the Center. I just do not see them doing it. I see Cooper or Saintisil.