MHS831

Whether or not this is true, it is how we have to approach it. he is like the girlfriend who said, "I need some space for a while." A while? She is GONE, buddy. Deal with the loss and move on. Give yourself a moment of silence and lick your wounds and get back on the dating sites. (Sniff, Sniff)

I hope we don't. We need to re-sign a few players (Nijman, BC, maybe Mays and Rozeboom, lock down Coker (he is cheaper now than he will be later).

I know--I would also caution anyone from using isolated incidents to make general assumptions--every injury is different. If this were my knee, I would not use AI. On a football chat board, different story. My concerns with the AI--were they talking about all positions or just OL? Then OTs. Hard to find that information but your point is valid and always assumed when usingAI. I do encourage stats that counter this because I would love to be wrong

Nijman and BC will cost between $7 and $8m. Mays will be around $10-12m. If we are not going to upgrade at LT, we probably need to at C---but I am high on Mays.

I had the same thought--and since medicine advances rapidly (there was a day when an Achilles injury means you are done) and an ACL was a near death sentence---so I think that is why the examples were recent. The context is not what we have, but I did mention that we have the opportunity to monitor the situation for a year. The thread did say "Statistical reasons" with the understanding that there are always contextual reasons, but your points are extremely valid.

that is how I view it. Even if he weren't injured, my position was that he was an average OT at best. But it is a business, and if you invest even money in something that has a 20% chance of a return to mediocre, then you will not be running that organization long. I thought Horn was a stupid deal (stil do, to be honest). We have first rounders from SoCar who are being outperformed by undrafted free agents and practice squad players--our strength is finding those players--(MJax and Coker) and not trying to invest heavily in our top end players who either can't stay healthy or play the position at an elite level. Ickey has a year of guaranteed money (something like $14m). He should feel lucky he got that deal before injuring his knee, and we should be grateful that the injury happened before we gave him a $100m deal.

I see your view, but the fact that the time of recovery is straddling a contract makes it interesting/complicated. Those other OL in this report are older players...but I would not want to be Morgan. I would base my decisions on the statistical probabilities. I would move him to guard--I would have considered it anyway if a better OT came our way.

hope this is not common knowledge to you, lifeless internet whores, (perhaps a bit too strong) but I decided to look into this to see what data Morgan and company will be examining. Morgan recently said that Ickey's surgery was successful, but that is far from an endorsement that his return to form will be. Mathematically, his return to form is a longshot, and if he cannot play at the level he was playing, we need a left tackle, regardless of the 9-12 month average recovery time. Career Outlook for Linemen Recent medical data indicates that offensive linemen (OL) have a significantly higher risk for patellar tendon injuries compared to all other position groups. For linemen, the mechanical demands of the position—specifically the extreme eccentric overload required during pass-blocking and the stress of managing a higher body mass index (BMI)—contribute to both injury frequency and difficulty in recovery. Return to Play (RTP) Rate: The overall RTP for PT ruptures is only ~55%, significantly lower than the ~79% average for other orthopedic surgeries. In other words, a player with an ACL is 25% more likely to return to play. Return to Form: Only 21.4% of players return to their pre-injury performance level within two years. (We have a 1-5 chance that Ickey returns to his present form-forget about his positive development and potential before the injury. I am not a fan of those odds, especially when it could take 2 years to get there.) Positional Impact: While skill players (WRs, RBs) rely on agility that the patella tendon (PT) anchors, linemen require the tendon for the "explosive" leg drive needed to anchor against 300+ lb defenders. (In other words, it impacts agility and leg drive, and I can't think of many positions on the field that need those abilities more) Injury Type Return to Play (RTP) Rate Career Longevity Impact Patellar Tendon Rupture 50% – 57% Highest (Worst outcomes in games played/performance) Achilles Tendon Rupture ~76% High (Decline in power/efficiency ratings) ACL Repair (ACLR) ~79% Moderate (Significant 1st-year decline; better long-term recovery) Recent High-Profile Cases (2025–2026) Ickey Ekwonu (Panthers LT): Suffered a rupture in January 2026; he is expected to miss the entire 2026 season due to the 6–12 month recovery timeline. Rashawn Slater (Chargers LT): Suffered a rupture in August 2025, forcing him to miss the 2025 season and potentially much of 2026. Trent Brown (Texans RT): Suffered a tear in late 2024 and returned to play in 2025, serving as a rare "hope" case for the position. Data from the NFL and NIH (National Institute of Health) Overall Assessment We basically have a year to evaluate Ickey's progress, but we need to consider the likelihood that he will never return to form. What is Ickey's "Form?" Ickey had 7 penalties (about average for the position) and surrendered 5 sacks (bottom third). So the level he has a 21% chance of returning to is serviceable--not elite or above average. There is a 78% chance that he does not return to this level or play. I would add that he has been improving, but the data does not include projected form; it is based on current levels (2025) The Panther decision: In the view of MHS, the Panthers should begin be re-signing Nijman and BC if possible. I imagine their agents are aware of the Ickey situation. Nijman is 30ish and a strong run blocker, but his pass pro is weak (47.0 PFF vs run grade of 86.1-that is consistent with my novice observations). He needs TE/RB help, in other words in some passing sets. Christensen (29) would be my preference, however, because he has shown the capability to be an effective left tackle in the NFL, driven by elite agility, technically sound pass-blocking, and high-level college production (96.0 PFF grade in 2020). While sometimes limited by average arm length compared to prototypical tackles, his quick feet allow him to reach spots and maintain balance. He has successfully filled in at tackle for the Panthers and is considered a highly versatile, dependable lineman. So if the Panthers can get these two back, they could find a LT later in the draft to develop. The more I think about it, the more this might be my play. Even if the OT we draft late is not ready to play LT in 2027, we still need depth and youth at RT. I would move Ekwonu to guard now and have him start learning that position (film, technique). Lewis and Hunt will be leaving (unless restructured) in 2027-2028. If Ekwonu takes 2 years to "return to form" as stated, he will show signs of his potential in 12 months--allowing Morgan and doctors to assess his likelihood to return. Then I might offer a backloaded, unguaranteed contract with heavy incentives. We could draft a LT in the first round, but forcing a rookie to start at LT in the NFL has been far from a quick fix or recipe for success. They often struggle for the first year--I am satisfied that, if we run the ball more as seems to be our MO, use more quick hitting passes such as slants, outs and some digs, we can function for a season with BC and Nijman. Maybe this is a situation that is good on paper but catastrophic on the field, but free agency is not where you find your LT, and first round rookies tend to struggle. Furthermore, at the Senior Bowl (I think it was the Senior Bowl--East West maybe?) the panthers seemed interested in a tackle that is going to be a day 3 pick. Of course, there are no first or second rounders playing in that game, so it could just be due dilligence.

I think signing Coker long term now (since you are not signing Ickey) makes sense, based on his production numbers. If he balls out next year, you could be looking in the $15m range for a player you could have much cheaper. If you wait until you have to make decisions about a healthy Ickey and then QB, you could lose Coker. (I have not looked at contract details etc. so my math could be off--but where I sit now, it seems to me this is obvious: Coker seems to have a future--solid hands, can get open, etc. His production (less that 400 yards) is probably far less than he will have next year etc.)

Here is what I think. 1. Not sure about the contract with Ickey, but I would let him walk if he wants big money, sign him to a back load contract to play here in the future--as a guard. I am guessing that knee would be better at G than LT. Draft a LT and re-sign Nijman and BC if possible. 2. I love Coker, but the injury history is not a deterrant. I think we need a #2--Coker is an ideal #3 imo. He can play #2 for 2026, but whatever you do, you sign him NOW. He should not demand elite money--3 TDs for 395 yards is not negotiation gold. Lock him up now on a contract that is aligned with that level of production. 3. XL--this is an unpopular opinion, but we knew XL was developmental when we drafted him. Maybe play him at the #3. Financlally, you keep him on the roster and you hope to unlock his potential in year 3. I am upset with him, but he has talent. Can he put it together? Unlikely, but we cant improve every position that we need to upgrade. 4. the OL is interesting. First, our guards are contractually locked in until 2027; moving either is not worth the cost. Extend them if anything. I do not see Ickey coming back as an OT--but maybe a G. We must draft a LT and C or RT. Re-sign Nijman and BC. We must also bring in or draft a starting Center. I am concerned that they re-sign Corbett late in free agency, when his price drops. I think we will draft one. (In other words, sign your depth--BC, Nijman, and maybe even Corbett and Cuhran. Draft a center and OT. 5. Sign a FA (Chenal) and add ILB depth later in draft. Re-sign Rozeboom (reasonable contract--2-3m) 6. This is why I do not believe in giving RBs second contracts--they rarely play up to them. Nonetheless, Chuba is a leader, we have Entienne, and Brooks is going to give it another try. Dowdle is gone. What is not mentioned is the need for an edge--imo, we have to big edges that can hold the edge (Jones II, Scourton) Princely and a free agent pass rushing specialist (Reddick?) should make edge better.

When you have to throw the ball upwards to get flagged for intentional grounding.

I have not been keeping up--is McDermott still unemployed? I heard he turned down the bucs

That is a deal breaker, for sure. maybe he lost a bet...

Me too--and I really like the ILBs in the draft. My only concern is this: Edge and OT are $20+m in free agency and their isnt much there--I think we have to go OT / Edge in the first two round--and possibly WR in round 3...ILB and S are available in free agency and their price tags are much lower. We have to re-sign Nijman, I would think, maybe BC, and I think we will let Mays walk. So I dunno. Makes my brain hurt.

Eric Rivers (GT WR) is eye catching

Our QBs would be too short to ride the roller coasters at Carowinds.

It gives agents a negotiation chip when I was an alternate for the pro bowl during my early 40s

It is the topic we have put off talking about-for obvious reasons. Since I try to throw stuff out there to discuss (mainly to pick your brains to see if my thinking is way off base or on point) I decided to talk about free agents on our roster and decide whether we should try to re-sign them or not. First, Rozeboom is 28 years of age (in his prime). He had his best year at Carolina in 2025--for that reason, he might be inclined to stay if we give him an offer. Will he want a starter's contract? His PFF score was a 47. That could be the rub. He probably feels that he should be rewarded based on his 2025 performance (I think he is credited with 122 tackles, 2 sacks, a forced fumble, etc) I figured his asking price for a new contract would be around $6m per, but one source said $3m. I noticed this about his play when observing. He is often the last person to take a step after the snap. That could mean that his coaches were correcting a habit like taking a false step. No step is better than a false step. However, Luke was stepping before the snap on many occasions, and the difference is not really the number of tackles, but where (in relation to the LOS) they took place. I think Wallace and Rozeboom (if we can get him for $4m or under) would be adequate depth. I think we need a free agent to add to the room, a player like KC's Leo Chanel. KC is in cap hell, and Chanel was not a 3-down LB. Here, he would get paid, join an ascending team, and start. Our LBs with Chanel (PFF SCORE 75 on 440 snaps) would be Chanel, Rozeboom, Wallace, Cherelus, and Martin-Scott. I am guessing the cost of free agency would be about $10-12m for Chanel and Rozeboom. If we did this, we might be OK at ILB, although I really like some in the draft. Personally, I think we need a stud starter, but Chanel is 25 and could be that person.

And timing is everything. You don't build the roof of a house before you build the foundation. Teams that draft #1 overall tend to go for QBs and put them in impossible situations. Our coach sucked. Our OL sucked (even when Cam was here, but he could overshadow that deficiency), etc. They seem to have the idea down (Morgan?) but when Bryce gets paid, you can't have $100m going to the OL and $50m to the QB and still have WRs and a Defense. We have to develop our talent and be prepared to let them walk and retool. I am still a bit upset by the Horn CB deal. Look at the salary we have locked up at OG and CB....Yikes. If it were not for MJackson and Coker, we would have been in deep poopie. I am still fairly optimistic, and I have accepted the fact that Bryce will be our CB for at least another season. He is improving, but I do not like the fact that he needs so much investment in the OL and WRs to be average--before his mega deal. I am hoping we draft an QB with potential to develop on day 3 and see what we can do with him. Long shot, but some of the top names in 2024 are going to be taken late this draft. Like Purdy (I wanted him around round 5 or 6), or Ewers from last season. I like several QBs who may not even be drafted, like the kid from Vanderbilt. I also like Mateer from Oklahoma. Raw, but a year on the bench could help.

It might just be me, but I am detecting a sliver of sarcasm here.

In the last 5 years, nearly 10% of the NFL's starting QBs (19% of the NFC QBs) were / are (at some point) on the Panther's roster. Of those QBs, their 2025 win percentage (regular season) was (combined-- the Seahawks, Bucs, and Panthers) won 30 of 51 games--nearly 60%--in 2025. At an average of 10 wins per season, a team has a better than 90% chance of making the playoffs. (Heck, I nearly added Caleb Williams to this forumula since we basically gave the Bears their QB as well). I

I am of the mindset that our needs that would cost $20m+ should be addressed in the draft. (OT, Edge, WR, maybe C depth) The others (LB, S and maybe C could be free agents.) I am not of the mindset that DL is a huge need--but I need to look at it more carefully.

Projected 2025/2026 Free Agent Costs by Position (AAV) Quarterback (QB): Top starters $40M–$50M+ per year (e.g., Kirk Cousins 4-yr, $180M in 2024). High-end backups/bridge QBs often get 2-year deals worth $10M–$15M+. Edge Defender (ED): Top tier $20M–$25M+ per year (e.g., J. Greenard 4-yr, $76M; D. Hunter 2-yr, $49M in 2024). Interior Defensive Line (IDL): Elite DTs command $20M–$27M+ (e.g., Christian Wilkins 4-yr, $110M; B.J. Hill 2-yr, $20.5M projected). Wide Receiver (WR): Elite/WR1s $20M–$25M+ (e.g., Calvin Ridley 4-yr, $92M). Mid-tier WRs often command $10M–$15M. Offensive Tackle (OT/LT): Top starters $15M–$20M+ (e.g., J. Williams 2-yr, $30M). Reliable veteran starters can range from $2M–$10M+. Cornerback (CB): Top tier $15M–$18M+ (e.g., C. Davis/C. Ward 3-yr, $54M; Z. McCollum 3-yr, $48M). Guard (G): Top interior linemen $15M–$20M+ (e.g., Robert Hunt 5-yr, $100M). Safety (S): Top tier $12M–$16M+ (e.g., Xavier McKinney 4-yr, $67M; T. Moehrig 3-yr, $51M). Linebacker (LB): Top-tier off-ball LBs $10M–$17M+ (e.g., Bryce Huff 3-yr, $51M; Patrick Queen 3-yr, $41M). Running Back (RB): Top tier $8M–$12M+ (e.g., Josh Jacobs 4-yr, $48M; S. Barkley 3-yr, $37.75M). Tight End (TE): Top tier $10M–$15M, shallow market often makes veteran value options around $2M–$5M. Special Teams (K/P/LS): Generally under $5M per year (Kickers/Punters $2M–$4M; Long Snappers often at minimum or slightly above). Top 2026 Roster Needs & Priorities: EDGE/Outside Linebacker (OLB): Improving the pass rush is the top priority, as the team ranked in the bottom tier for sacks, with D.J. Wonnum heading to free agency. Inside Linebacker: With Wallace disappointing and Rozeboom possibly on the way out, the Panthers ILBs have been rated in the low 50s on PFF. They need a quality man in the middle. Defensive Line (Interior): Support for Derrick Brown is needed to improve interior pass rush, with needs for more consistent production beyond A'Shawn Robinson and a recovering Nick Wharton. Offensive Line (LT/C): The team needs a potential starter at left tackle and a long-term solution at center, with Cade Mays and others facing free agency. Wide Receiver: Adding explosive weapons to complement the passing game is a priority. Safety: Upgrading the secondary with better coverage skills to support Tre'von Moehrig and Lathan Ransom. Considering that you can afford one to three free agents, and considering that you can reasonably expect 2-3 draft picks to contribute immediately, how would you attack the roster needs? (Lets see how this goes--)

LB, S, are smart FA moves for the Panthers. Not sure about a pass rushing Edge and WR.