LinvilleGorge

We were tracking behind them for a little while, but it looks like we're now tracking ahead of where they were.

Yep. Colorado's governor has publicly stated that even though we're in the neighborhood of 200 cases confirmed in the state, the real number is likely in the thousands.

All you have to do is look to Italy. They've been on lockdown for a week and their new caseload is still climbing. This virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days (though I think the average is 4 days). A week is going to make practically no difference at all. I'm watching Italy for when their new caseload levels off and then starts declining. Given the incubation period and contagiousness of the virus, I think the peak will happen sometime early to mid next week. I say that knowing jack poo about infectious diseases, but having a really good grasp of forecasting mathematics. If they're new caseload is still climbing this time next week, that's gonna be an "oh poo" moment for me.

They're doing the same thing here in Jefferson County, CO. It's to decrease the density of the populations held so that they can more effectively maintain social isolation standards. Your tinfoil might be wrapped a bit too tight.

Italy has been locked down for a week and their caseload is still climbing. It's gonna take a lot longer than a week. Wuhan has been on lockdown for virtually two months now.

I think martial law is a long ways off. It would take a MASSIVE mobilization of LEO, National Guard, etc. to pull off. It's not like you could flip a switch on something like that in a matter of a few days. Shelter in place orders? Yeah, those are gonna be widespread soon. If people would just listen to the damn CDC guidelines none of this would be necessary, but you still have idiot spring breakers partying on the beach, etc.

I hope everything turns out well. I still have three grandparents living. They're all 80+. My paternal grandfather would 100% not survive this. He has pretty advanced emphysema and every minor cold he gets turns into pneumonia. My paternal grandmother is pretty healthy, but she survived a bout of lung cancer about 20 years ago and is missing a good chunk of one lung from that. She'd be super high risk too. My maternal grandfather is still pretty weakened by a battle with colon cancer about a year and a half ago. I don't necessarily like any of their chances. Similar story with my inlaws. My father in law is a pediatrician so I'm sure he has a very high risk of exposure. He's 67 and diabetic. My mother in law is 69 and diabetic with heart disease. Not good. My wife has begged him to just retire but he won't hear of it. He wants to help if he can.

Yep. There are going to be a LOT of people in a LOT of financial trouble very quickly absent massive financial intervention. We've essentially grinded every non-essential part of our economy to a halt over the past week. That's not sustainable for long.

A malaria drug is showing early promising results. This is one of about four or five different current anti-virals that are showing early promising results. Too early and too limited of data to call anything a slam dunk, but there's promise out there using existing drugs already available to fight this thing. https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

Italy's new cases spiked again today. They're still on the upswing.

Oops, left out the link. https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-virus-plan-anticipates-18-190626012.html What very well could be left out of this article is that it very well could be based on a worst case scenario in where there are literally zero developments in terms of fighting this disease from a medical standpoint. I find that highly unlikely given some already promising preliminary returns.

If this take is correct, we're just plain good and proper fuged. We can't go on lockdown for 18 months and still have an economy to comeback to. I don't think society would have it anyway. There would be massive social unrest. We better hope that there can be some successful anti-virals found and a vaccine fast tracked. Because that paints a picture that would probably make the Great Depression look like a soft quarter in comparison.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Scroll down to "Daily New Cases". Roughly flat for four straight days now. But, they were roughly flat for the previous three days too and then it spiked to the current level. We'll see.

Eyes on Italy now. New cases have plateaued over the past four days. Hopefully their situation is peaking and they can turn the corner soon

If you're not part of an at risk demographic, yes. But still call your healthcare provider and inquire about testing. They'll see if you meet current protocols. It's a virus, so there's no cure. It's all about supportive care. If you don't need supportive care (i.e. you're not having trouble breathing) then there's no reason not to just ride it out at home.

Part of not freaking out is understanding and accepting what is coming. We still have a TON of people who seem to think that this is no big deal and will all blow over in a week or two. That's wildly inaccurate and that's what I'm concerned might cause a real panic - when the actions that everyone who has been paying attention fully expect get implemented and the head in the sand crew freaks the fug out because they weren't paying attention or were willfully ignorant.

Look around the world at what's happening. Brace yourself. It's coming.

Honestly, I think pretty much everyone is just pissing in the wind with these predictions. No one knows and that's the scary thing and that's why the stock market is falling off the cliff.

It's why I'm saying to lock it down now. Get the pain over with. We're going to get there anyway, so swan dive right on in. The quicker we lock it down, the quicker we can get back to normal. Wuhan was locked down for basically two months. With proper economic interventions, we can weather that decently well. Let's get to it already.

Yeah, there's no "V" if this virtual shutdown extends well into the year. I don't know what the answers are, but it's going to take massive economic intervention to keep the economy from torpedoing and that's on a global scale. The entire world is looking at being in this situation very soon.

The dude looks like he's going to go lick doorknobs at the local Bob Evans later.

Public health emergency aside, we might be looking at the start of the Great Depression v. 2.0. If this massive slowdown lasts say two months, it'll be a huge punch in the gut but I think we could bounce back from that. If it lasts say six months or more... man, I just don't know. Practically every small business out there is going to go under. Tons of people are going to go bankrupt. You're looking at the Great Depression in that scenario IMO.