LinvilleGorge

Just do the math. Even if everyone in China contracted the virus and we figure an overall 2% mortality rate of the infected (not confirmed infected, but overall infected), that's 27M dead. The virus just isn't lethal enough to kill tens of millions in China.

Not even China can cover up tens of millions of deaths. We'll never get a real number out of them and I suspect the real number is significantly higher than the reported number, likely by several magnitudes but several 10s of millions? Nah, not a chance.

Those viruses weren't very biologically successful and vaccine development is very costly, both in monetary terms and resources. The outbreaks didn't last long enough for the early vaccine efforts to come to fruition.

No armchair MD'ing here. This stuff is way out of my wheelhouse. I'm simply passing along info from a personal friend who just so happens to be one of the nation's leading experts on this stuff.

Where are the massive outbreaks? Those viruses aren't very biologically successful.

I really don't know why you're going on the attack. I'm simply trying to share information that is being shared to me by someone who is literally one of the nation's leading experts on public health risk assessment, biodefense, and emerging infectious diseases. I get it, you're a front line medical professional. That's cool. Much respect. That's not what she does. This poo that we're living right now is what she does.

Here's another read if you'd like, but I have to presume you probably already know more than the Director in Chemical Biology Therapeutics at Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects Rushing the process is going to take a vast amount of effort, and some of the steps are going to have to be done on a scale never before attempted. “But that’s next year!” will be the reaction of many who are hoping for a vaccine ASAP, and I can understand why. The thing is, that would be absolutely unprecedented speed, way past the current record set by the Ebola vaccine, which took about five years. It is a tightrope, folks, and we’re going to be trying to run across it. Watch closely; with any luck we will never see anything quite like this again.

Okay, you know more than the editors at Nature journal and former CDC and current Johns Hopkins PhD professionals whose lives revolve around this very stuff. Congrats.

Don't take it from me and my very informed first hand source... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 As of 8 April 2020, the global COVID-19 vaccine R&D landscape includes 115 vaccine candidates (Fig. 1), of which 78 are confirmed as active and 37 are unconfirmed (development status cannot be determined from publicly available or proprietary information sources). Of the 78 confirmed active projects, 73 are currently at exploratory or preclinical stages. The global vaccine R&D effort in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in terms of scale and speed.

Tests in terms of treatment options? Sure, they're trying to re-purpose existing drugs. In terms of vaccine research? I seriously doubt we'll live long enough to ever see anything like this again.

Actually, I was wrong on that previous post. She just tweeted one potential vaccine has already passed phase 1 trials and is on to phase 2.

My primary source is a PhD who formerly worked for the CDC and who currently works for John Hopkins. Her specialty is infectious disease research. She was my wife's college roommate. But I mean hey, if you know a "topper" scientist than that...

Normally? Sure. Now? Not a chance. There will likely never he another time during our lifetimes when as much medical research focus will be concentrated on a single issue. There are already multiple potential vaccines in phase 1 trials. There will be a vaccine widely available during the 2021 calendar year.

I think the coming antibody tests will provide a much clearer picture and probably enough of a picture to produce a decent SWAG at least. Right now we don't even have that.

We'll never truly know, but if I was hazarding a guess it's probably in the 1% range. That's still 10x deadlier than the common flu.

Sweden is going to be a very interesting case study on how to handle this. If their numbers don't explode over the coming weeks then maybe other countries need to use their approach as a guideline.

That percentage is falsely inflated because it's 5% out of confirmed cases. There are a TON of undiagnosed cases.

I honestly have no idea what he's basing those figures on. It's really difficult to put a numeric figure on how many people would be infected by a population that has over an 80% asymptomatic rate from a highly infectious virus.

Has Dr. Oz ever been right about anything? 2-3% mortality rate for children is wildly inaccurate. It's way lower than that. The reason why schools are closed is because children are so likely to be asymptomatic carriers so the disease is much harder to identify and track within that population segment. Dr. Oz is a snake oil salesman idiot.

There's a reason why Trump is beating the drum to re-open the economy and there is a growing coalition of Democratic governors trying to formulate their own plans to re-open their economies and that reason is almost certainly 100% politically motivated. Everyone is trying to position themselves to take credit for the re-opening of the economy for political clout.

And suddenly I find myself strongly supporting Trump's brazen plan to withhold funding from the WHO. http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/alcohol-use/news/news/2020/04/alcohol-does-not-protect-against-covid-19-access-should-be-restricted-during-lockdown/_recache?fbclid=IwAR2lkIQcxfDdziOa7esAbXO-caLv66wvhmP4JxoDwXQd5z14X02jAmHZulg Alcohol does not protect against COVID-19; access should be restricted during lockdown Denver tried this when they initially announced their stay at home guidelines. Liquor stores and marijuana businesses initially were not going to be deemed essential businesses and would've been forced to close for the duration of the stay at home order. People flocked to them in such droves that decision was changed almost immediately.

Theaters will come back. The studios need that box office money. I don't see these efforts of trying to sell a stream for a new movie for $20 going over well at all.

The western U.S. did a much better job handling their outbreaks.

It's interesting to me how Cuomo has become the shining star of this pandemic in America while his state has one of if not the worst outbreak on the globe. Governor Polis here in CO sounds like he's going to be using the data over the next five days to make a call on whether or not to extend the stay at home order or lift it when it expires on April 26th. I just hope that when they get lifted people actually adhere to the social distancing guidelines.

This whole situation is exposing a lot of hypocricy. We have "states rights" people cheering the POTUS proclaiming his absolute power and you have "yay strong federal government" cheering states for thumbing their noses at the federal government.