strato

Director of coaching development and Culture? No wonder...

I think we should trade our way up that #3 list. What would it take?

My first post in this thread but darn it, context. It was a Texans thread early on. CJ Stroud stirs up feelings, people speak. Meanwhile Atlanta drafted a guy that apparently looks good. People weren’t nice to Plummer either. Nobody has any good Bryce play to talk about. I hope he comes out and goes 12 for 12 for 120 yards but all anyone has right now is (mostly bad) memories. Sigh...

He’ll be whispering to Plummer soon enough.

I broke my rule on that week one stuff last year. My mantra for a long time has been ignore it. Exception for last year.

I said every year only for the purpose of illustrating the actual cost compared to what we actually did (annual carnage in that pursuit). The trade value reference: 15.4 for the 6th vs 1050 in the 1st. That’s nothing. I think if you have a staff that can you can actually develop, why not keep trying to find QB talent? The salary alone is prohibitive to keeping an ordinary one for the long term. At the end of this day, isn’t worth all this typing we are not going to see this the same.

We will see. I just think that the shift from 4 to 3 preseason games presented an opportunity to re-examine policy on the sequence that was long established and is still carried on. I think largely out of reflex and habit, and without that 4th game it changes things. I can see where flipping the game where the starters don’t play, to the front of the process, might have some merit. Maybe that is not what is happening though. To be honest though, my irritation with the plan stems from anxiety over what the offense was going to look like. More than worrying about Bryce Young’s minimal reps that were deleted.

I thought the (point of the) hiring of Canales (or any QB specialist) to run things was that we’d get a professional exploration of Young’s potential, number one. Secondary considerations would be he has the ability to move forward on a replacement, if necessary, intelligently with a good staff for developing him, on board. Etc etc.

For me it was anyone but Bryce. When it got to that point. It was always, regardless of the player, anything but giving up future 1st round. Multiples.(oops not multiples) And the whole bounty they got from us for anybody we chose, not specifically Bryce. It isn’t a reaction against him specifically, it is a call to stop doing stupid poo with your most precious assets because you are fuging impatient. To not do business like that. Edit: and I will tell you what really kills me, and not recalling if this was you or who else but people were happily lining up to give those assets away and the value was massive, it was a huge gamble. People are all over it. Yeah! It’s worth it! DO it! I suggest a gamble that you could do almost every year to the year 2100 and you would still not approach the value spent in that single move. I am thinking. But people start talking value.

Okay of course it is possible but there are pretty substantial differences in the equation. People say infighting/mutiny sunk Reich. That may be a big part of it. He did not have alignment with his coaches. Here what I think we are looking at, is a basically independent defensive side of the ball. A lot of autonomy at least. Canales is focusing on the offense. I don’t see conflicting interests there, he picked all his guys did he not? Simpatico with his GM too. That eliminates a cited source of dysfunction right there. Yep it is possible that Tepper self destructs it all in a fit of rage. Again.

So I am a lowly fan unsophisticated in the building of .500 teams on a good day. Let’s see what happens with Rattler, with some of these guys that were projected third rounders and go to freefall. The idea, where in this discussion it went another way, is that this is an asset development game. QBs are top currency. Develop some. Trade them. Pats did it successfully more than once.

I am talking potential starters, yeah. Knowing the low success rate. You can find ST players all day though. Maybe a particular year there is a need for a ST guy that you know really would never be a starter but fills a role that season.. sure. I think every pick you have you hope to turn into a starter. This isn’t me saying it is blindfold and swing at a QB every year just because he is a QB. I am saying if you see something think you can work with it is worth a shot. Especially with an offensive minded QB centric staff that has some QB coaching ability. I’m cool with you not thinking it is the way to go. I’m sticking to it though.

Sure, anything is possible. He just ain’t Frank though. You can find similarities I suppose but 1st, much younger. And fresh not burned out or close to burned out. Got more ahead of him than behind probably. So that’s something. And we are certain that he knew 100% what his assignment was when he took the job, where I think Frank, as things unfolded, was surprised and overwhelmed by the size of the job given the time he had to put it together. Just a feeling and opinion.

What do you think it takes to push him? We getting ready to find out how good he really is but so far I don’t see it taking a lot. Someone besides Dalton, who is obviously a better player but comes in saying it is Bryce’s job, before Bryce ever took a snap. He ain’t pushin’ anybody.

How many 7th rounders have we had to really contribute? Munnerlyn, I think Norman was 5th? Maybe 6th. I just don’t see a 6th or 7th round miss as causing a significant drag on roster maintenance when the difference between there and UDFAs isn’t really that great. You can pick those guys up in cuts very often, too. So I guess I’ll take my team and do what I want and you take your and do what you want and we’ll see. Except we don’t have teams. But I am all over taking a shot because even though hitting on it it is rare, it could still happen. If I like the way the player sitting there looks I am not gonna ignore him.

He could, no doubt. But there are still 19 chances for it, and we are not likely to miss the playoffs because Bryce Young missed a couple of series in preseason game 1. Perspective is good. I would bet if you take the total number of snaps in preseason from last year and compare them to this year, when it is said and done we can see what the numbers are. If he plays the next two weeks it won’t be that much difference, is my guess.

I I think that neglects to consider the relative perceived value of the QB position. Very high. So formulaic consideration above my pay grade must be factored in. Basically if there is a question about a QB prospect he is gonna fall (unless it’s Bryce Young for some reason). If there are a couple of questions he’ll fall farther down. There are still people that slip through, although granted, it's a small number. I still think we could have found everything we are gonna see in Bryce, at far better value and I’ve been watching other teams hit on devalued players, I want some of that.

I talked about that too. There are for sure practice players, and guys who are not practice players but turn the recording light on and they get focused differently.

You seriously think he could be gone after one year? I am betting no, despite the track record of ownership. Something has to change and changing coaches has not worked.

It’s completely conceivable at this point to consider he may be working with a new QB next year. So like return to Go, start over. Only he’ll have a year into building a foundation. That is not something that happens much with new coaches. They usually have to come in at the same time as the QB, in those situations.

Knowing what it would look like was the main cause of all the consternation over sitting people.

i was actually thinking of UDFA vs 6th or 7th round. I thought that was part of the idea we were discussing. Like you can wait until after the draft for these guys. I was saying that it holds true for about all players down there so what is really the difference? Now, I did not research success rate of 6th round picks by position, but I guess you did. . You might be citing established success rates or you might be guesstimating, I don’t know. I’m not challenging that in the first place, we can use it. I would say though, that if my eyes tell me there is potential, and the kid shows to have a good head on his shoulders I am going to do what feels right in that circumstance regardless of the percentages. It isn’t a high level of investment. That is where you can gamble a little. Moving along... You could take the view that you can more successfully predict success of other positions better than QB when you are at the top of the player rankings, I might look at focusing my 1st round on doing that. That was just off the top of my head so I looked for a better source. I stole the below from Jeremy Fowler on Twitter, it is compiled of the years 2000-20019. The percentages by positions are below (look at WR lol). And there is a link to a 2025 trade value chart also. There is a lot to this of course, but I thought I’d look at the trade value chart along with these percentages. I am not great with the math heavy statistical analysis, so I won’t try to quantify all this. But I did consider that 2% chance thing and compared that to the 46% for 1st rounders from this chart (QBs ftr) (That’s 23 times more likely? Or just divisible 23 times? I don’t the rules for probabilities like some folks here will.) The value of a mid 6th rounder is 15.4, for the 15th pick of the 6th round. 23 x 15.4 is 354.2 The value of the 15th overall selection, is listed as 1050. Looks like you get 23 shots x 2 percentage wise. You essentially get 3 times that many shots from a trade chart value. What can we do with those numbers? https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

Gotta give him a rookie year even if it doesn’t look great. He’ll learn a lot, see what he can do with it in ‘25

Spamming propaganda to the peasants again.