tukafan21

Yes, this! It's what people don't seem to be grasping with those of us who don't want Young. Stroud has a simpler path to be a good QB in this league, Young needs to be the literal best ever small QB to make this work. We're not saying Young can't do it, but the odds are significantly smaller and it would take a more herculean effort for it to pan out. It's also why I've said too many times to count, that part of what factors into the decision for me is everything we gave up for this pick. If we had the top pick because we finished in last place last year and still had our other 2nd rounder this year, our first next year, our second the year after that, and still had DJ, then I'd be much more open to considering Young as the pick. (Spoiler alert, I'd still want to take Stroud in that situation as I think he's going to have a better career, but I'd be less against the idea of Young in that instance) As if it didn't pan out and we saw it early, we would have the assets to make a move next year to draft someone else from a much deeper class. Exactly what the Titans might do this year after taking Willis or what the Cardinals did after taking Rosen. All of this is also why I was so much against trading a haul to move up this year, too muddy of a QB class without a clear cut #1 to give up everything we did to move up. I'd have been much more comfortable giving up more assets next year in a stronger class (and that's only if one of the Top 4 didn't fall to us at #9, which very well may have happened anyways).

Again, this is why the argument of playing and succeeding in the SEC is a good barometer of a player's skill, particularly for those from schools like Alabama or Georgia due to playing superior players in practice everyday. I made this thread in specific regard to people using playing in the SEC as an argument about why he can withstand the physicality of the NFL. Two VERY VERY different things. Even more so when you talk about it like you are here and using the competition in practice everyday, seeing as QB's aren't allowed to be touched in practice.

Which is the crux of it all, people in the Young camp say people like myself, are basing the decision solely on his size, it's not, it's just a factor in it all, and in the end, yes, it is the deciding factor. But that's only because when you look at everything other than size, Stroud is right there as an equal level prospect (and before you go and bash that, there are PLENTY of NFL experts/analysts/execs/coaches/etc who say that, many who even say he's just the better prospect in general). When they're so close as prospects, size aside, once you then factor that into the equation at the end of the process, that's where it because the easy call for me to say Stroud should be the pick instead of Young. As I've said numerous times, if it was Young vs Levis or AR, then while the size is still part of the equation and it's factored in, it's not the deciding factor because he's that much of a better prospect in other areas that it far outweighs the size factor. I think that is very much lost in this argument by the Young supporters, they think those in the Stroud camp think we're wanting to take the "worse QB" which couldn't be further from the truth. We think they're even level prospects and we're taking the guy we think has the higher likelihood of having a long successful career. Those in the Young camp just want to disregard size due to it being an "unknown factor and anyone can get hurt at anytime." Which while yes, it's true, anyone can get hurt at anytime, doesn't make disregarding his size (in the way they do) a legitimate way to look at this draft pick.

I'm so sick of this argument As The Athletic's article today points out, since 2000 there have been 368 QB's who have played in the league, only 9 of them have been under 6 feet. Yes, as I've said it's not about his height, but his frame/weight/bulk, but that number would be even smaller if looking for players of Young's size. To make any significant revelation based on a sample size like that, it's just flat out ignorant and is only used by teams publicly as a way to help sell it to their fan base. Nobody arguing against Young due to his size is saying bigger QB's are guaranteed to stay healthier, but it's just common sense to say a 5'10" 190 lbs QB has a higher probability to get injured than someone 6'2" and 215 lbs. Yes, anyone could get hurt on any given play, but if you put those two sized QB's up for comparison and you had to pick one or the other as to who is more likely to get injured, you'd have to be fooling yourself to say there isn't even a slightly better chance of the smaller player being injured more often than the bigger player there. No, there are no guarantees, but the people asking for past examples/proof of smaller QB's being more injury prone, and leaning on a sample size of 9 out of 368, is just completely asinine in itself. Hell, even if all 9 of those guys kept getting hurt and thus helping my argument, I'd still say it's far too small of a sample size to be used in these discussions.

It's quite interesting that everyone here who wants Young just disregards his size as an issue and points to weird random data points as to why "smaller QB's aren't more likely to get injured" Despite every NFL expert and analyst openly talking about how his size and possible durability issues are 100% factors in the decision, but in their minds, his football skillset makes it worth that risk. And that's just those that still say Young should be the #1 pick, there are plenty out there that think it should be Stroud. That's NOT the argument most Young supporters here make, they say the size factor is irrelevant based on any number of factors, whether it be NFL rules, past data about smaller QB's (even though they're all still bigger than Young), or whatever they want to point to. That to me is very telling in how most Young supporters here talk about him, I'd have less of an issue if they'd say it concerned them but they think he's good enough that it's worth the risk. Yes, some argue that, but not most, most just dismiss his size as a non-factor. I'm gonna side with the "experts" on that one, very few, if any, have said that his size are a completely non-factor in the way so many on here talk about him.

Call me crazy, but trying to predict Young's durability by comparing him to guys who are 20+ lbs heavier than him is rather flawed and not very relevant.

Bryce Young will be the pick, he'll show plenty of things in his first couple years that has fans excited over him. But by the end of his rookie contract people will realize we made a mistake and took a guy who is injury prone and we'll be debating whether it's worth paying $40 million a year for a QB who only can play 10-12 games a season and likely misses playoff games like Lamar due to being injured late in the season. That's my prediction, don't @ me on it in the next year when he shows flashes of being a good player, come talk to me in 4 years when he can't stay on the field.

Okay... and your point being? You're talking about comparing it to the AVERAGE weight of QB's, someone 5 lbs lighter than the average QB is still significantly larger than Bryce Young is. He'd be literally the smallest (lightest) QB in NFL history The players mentioned there as missing significant gams while being more than 5 lbs less than the average are 2 Gloves, Alex Smith, Tannehill, and Jackson... they are 215, 215, 217, and 212 lbs respectively, meaning they all still have about 20 lbs or more on Young's actual playing weight. That's anything but insignificant

No, I'm not saying smaller QB's have durability issues. I'm saying the guy who would be LITERALLY the smallest QB in NFL history will more than likely have injury issues and thus I don't think he's a smart pick over someone like Stroud. If it was between Young and Levis/AR it's a different discussion, but that's not the case here. There isn't a fair comparison for him in the history of the NFL He isn't thickly built like Wilson, he isn't a fast twitch athlete like Kyler to help him avoid big hits, he's built like a slot WR without the speed.

C'mon man, seriously? Young is already an inch smaller than Russ, you really going to tell me that these two players below have the same weight/frame despite Young being an inch shorter as well? That 204 combine weight by Young is a farce and everyone knows it Weight was never a concern for Wilson coming into the league, it was his height, so he didn't need to put on weight for a show weight at the combine. There is a reason Young didn't do any workouts at the combine, it's because he wasn't in peak physical shape due to the weight he artificially put on there. His combine weight is the equivalent of a UFC fighter who cuts weight for a weigh in and then steps into the cage 15-20 lbs heavier, it's just in reverse. Fighters couldn't cut all that weight and then step into the cage to fight right after the weigh in.

Nope, still not getting it. I'm not saying this is a reason against the SEC argument in general, I'm only saying it in regards to the people who say things like, "it's nonsense to say he can't stay healthy when he made it through 2 SEC seasons without serious injury" Two very different things

You're right, I said best sub 6 foot, but I also said right after, that I probably shouldn't state it like that, it's just an easier way to say "small QB" But part of it also is that if I were to say name the best sub 200 lbs QB in the NFL history, there isn't even an answer there because there hasn't been one. So the closest thing you could compare it to in that sense is height, and if you're asking for evidence as to why smaller QB's are more likely to be injured, you kinda have to go by height as there has never been a QB as small as he is before.

Comparing frame for an NFL player and NBA player is just nonsense. Yes the NBA is a physical sport, but it's nothing compared to the NFL. Also, if you want to save those receipts, it's not going to do you any good in 9 months. If you want to go back through my posts and find it, you can, cause I've said it numerous times in the past month. I think Young is a great prospect, but one who won't hold up for a long career, he'll mostly be fine for his first 2-3 years, but the hits are going to add up and he will start to break down. I think by year 5, he's no longer a viable NFL starting QB due to not being able to stay on the field for enough games a season to justify paying him a starting QB's salary.

Show me the evidence of successful sub 200 QB's, I'll wait too (well actually I won't wait, because there isn't any evidence to wait for, because it hasn't happened, ever, in the entire history of the NFL). We traded 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and our #1 WR for this pick, why do people want to do that and then bet on someone being the first ever successful player at his size for the position? Wilson was a 3rd rounder, not the 1st overall pick after trading a haul to get the pick when there is an equally talented prospect also sitting there. It's called risk assessment, and Young is a far greater risk thank Stroud at #1 overall, even before factoring in what we gave up to get the pick.

Again, Wilson was told that because he was short, dude is built like a dumb truck, he was built to take an NFL level beating, two completely different things here.

And how many of those sized CBs are missing a few games here or there due to being banged up? That's totally fine for position players to miss a few games, even elite skill position players it's okay. That's not okay for a franchise QB to miss 2-4 games a year due to being banged up.

jesus fuging christ, how hard is reading comprehension? I've literally said numerous times I don't give two shits about his height, it's about his frame and ability to hold up for a long career. I'll stop saying "sub 6 foot" QB's and start saying "sub 200 lbs" instead since people can't seem to figure out that people don't actually care about his height.

Again, is anyone actually that upset about the height aspect of it? Yes, I realize I just used "sub 6 foot QB's" in my previous post, but that's really just saying there haven't been good small QB's. If you want me to change it to "sub 200 lb QB's" I'd be more than happy to, as that's my real argument, but I don't think we're about to see a 6'3" 190 lbs QB either, that would just be absurd. Very few, if any, people are saying he won't be successful due to his height, we're saying he won't be successful because he's not built to withstand the NFL punishment over a long career.

It's not that there is a specific cut off, but the whole "show me the evidence that smaller QB's are injured more and have shorter (or less successful) careers" is such a badly flawed argument when the evidence is right there in front of you. Name the best sub 6 foot QB's in NFL history When Kyler Murray very well could already be in the Top 5 of that list, it's not a good argument as to why he's a safe pick at #1. Particularly when you look at the guys on that list, they're short like Bryce, but they have completely different builds.

Show me one other 5'10" 190 lbs QB that has had a long career as a starting QB? I'll wait while you realize there hasn't been one. Not saying Young can't be the first, just that I don't think he's worth the risk when you have an equally as good prospect in Stroud available to us and we gave up everything we did to move up to #1.

There literally isn't a fair comparison, he'd be the smallest high level QB ever, and even the other small QB's he doesn't compare to, he's not the quick twitch athlete of a Kyler Murray and he's not thickly built like a Wilson. Thinking being a 5'10" 190 lbs QB doesn't put you at a higher risk of getting injured, is just the definition of sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling at the top of your lungs so you don't have to hear the logical and sensical argument in front of your eyes.

Still completely missing the point The SEC measuring stick is about football skill, not staying healthy for what would be the smallest QB in NFL history. If people want to point to his success as a QB in the SEC, that's completely fair and valid, especially if you want to use it to counter anyone talking about his height. But when people point to him making it through the SEC healthy, that's where it completely falls apart. and THAT is my point here. To be a successful QB in the SEC, you play against all positions on defense, but to stay healthy, you have to be able to absorb hits by essentially 3 positions, DE, DT, and pass rushing LB's. I'd be very curious to know how many hits he took in the last 2 years by NFL level players, I'd bet it's less than 25 over the course of his career.

I really hate when people say things like, "well he didn't get hurt in the SEC where he's playing against NFL sized and caliber players every week" It's just nonsense that doesn't hold up to even the slightest digging into the facts. Last year the SEC had 65 players drafted, which was the most every by a single conference, but take even half a second to look at it a bit further. Half of those picks came from 3 teams, Georgia, LSU, and Alabama. 33 of the picks were then spread out across the rest of the conference. Then factor in that some of them were offensive players, without going through pick by pick, that means there was probably roughly somewhere between 12-20 defensive players drafted from the SEC last year outside of those 3 teams. And sure, factor in that some NFL caliber players obviously didn't go pro, but also some future NFL players would have still been young and not at that level yet anyways, so for the sake of argument, let's go with the high end of 20 there and then double that number to take into account players who didn't go pro. That would mean outside those top 3 teams, there was probably 40ish NFL caliber defensive players in the conference last year, which essentially breaks down to 3-4 NFL quality defensive players per team, of which, how many of them are actually pass rushers? The argument against Young has never been about height, it's always been about his frame and not how will it hold up on a game by game basis, but over the course of a 17 game season and hopefully a 10+ year career. So sure, he played a few games against teams loaded with NFL sized and quality players and he got through it, but getting through a few games without getting hurt isn't the issue. So when people use the argument of him getting thru the SEC for 2 years without getting hurt as the proof that his size shouldn't be a factor, it's just nonsense. I'd be very curious if someone were to go through the film of every hit he took to find out how many of them were by players of NFL size, speed, strength, etc. I'm guessing it's not that many, however still people want to use him getting through the SEC unscathed as the reasoning as to why he'll be able to hold up in the NFL. But in reality, in his full career at Alabama, he probably took less hits by NFL type of players than he'll take in the first half of his rookie season alone.

Oh, and people need to stop talking about Young's height, nobody cares about it, it's his frame, he's just not built to withstand the punishment an NFL QB takes.

Equal talents but one just isn't going to hold up in the NFL over the long haul, it's an easy decision for me, but unfortunately we're going to go the other way and have an oft-injured QB to deal with for a while.