tukafan21

The point is .06 seconds of a difference in a 40 yard dash has essentially zero bearing on in game NFL speed. I didn't say speed doesn't matter, but if you watch his tape and think his top end speed is slow, then you just want to see that and are kidding yourself. Yes, he takes a few strides to really get up to full speed, but that's just something that comes with a player of his size, again, he's never going to be as quick as a 6' guy like some of you seem to think is needed to be a successful WR.

In no world would the Eagles give us Brown for our 2nd when there 100% would be teams out there who would give them their 1st for him. He turns 28 soon and just signed an extension through his prime, someone like the Chargers would absolutely give them their 1st this year for him. And even if not that, I could see the Patriots giving them their 2nd which would be well before ours, or a whole bunch of other teams who need WR help, that Rams 2nd is going to be late.

Sure, everyone gets their turn, and when the teams pay guys like Higgins, Top 5 money, they generally end up being overpays because while they're really good, they just don't provide the ROI on that contract. It's nothing against Higgins, I like the player, but with his injury history, Chase always taking the main attention, having Burrow as his QB, and the lack of top WR FA's, it has all the markings of being a bad signing compared to whatever he's going to get. The Patriots with all their cap room could give him a Top 3 WR contract and he plays really well for them, and it still be an overpay in the end.

Maybe, but the QB needy teams know they aren't going to be great next year anyways. I'd rather go with a Jameis or sign Cousins once he's cut and just draft someone in a better QB draft next year, than possibly waste a 2nd round pick on a guy who may never be a starting QB in this league.

I couldn't see him being drafted in even the 2nd round this year, and 3rd rounders get a 4 year contract for $5.5-6 million. With how much NIL the top QB's can get as transfers, I'd have to think someone like him could get at least 2, if not 3 million for just next season. As long as he doesn't poo the bed, he's still likely a 3/4 round pick anyways, with the potential to work his way into the 1st or 2nd which would then get him a bigger contract as well. Now if he's being told he won't fall past the 2nd, then sure, maybe it makes more sense, but I'd be surprised if that's what he's hearing and will end up happening.

Given the available options in FA this year, Higgins is likely going to end up getting a Top 5 WR money type of contract in the end. You don't think that will be an overpay? He's good, but he's not even Top 10 WR good, let alone Top 5

So many of those "test off the chart at the combine" type of guys end up just physical freaks who never pan out though. I'm not saying that's the case for him, but in general, I hate going after guys who fly up draft boards because of the combine, tape speaks for itself.

For as much as the Raiders don't make any sense for Ben Johnson, I kinda get it if he's being sold by Brady on "I'm Tom Brady, you know I'm going to find a way to succeed, we know we're a mess, come join me and a new GM and we're going to build it up right so you know your job is secure for a while at the same time" If that's what they're selling him, it probably gives him at minimum 3 years as HC, if not 4, no matter how badly it goes during that time, because they're selling him on letting him build up the team from the ground up how he sees fit. In today's coaching landscape, for a 38 year old first time HC, getting that kind of assurance and having Brady in your corner, probably is quite appealing.

LOLOLOL I will make any bet that anyone wants that he runs 4.59 or under. Anyone who actually thinks he's running a 4.6 or higher has clearly never watched him play, that's absolute nonsense.

Said this last night in the Bryce thread, but he's also the perfect pairing for what Bryce does well (and doesn't). The biggest negative people on here have towards him is his top end speed. Well, Bryce doesn't have the arm to take advantage of that type of player anyways, Bryce doesn't have the "throw the ball past the defense and let a Tryeek type run it down" type of arm. Bryce has the "heave it 50-60 yards for a jump ball" type of arm, which again, is PERFECT for what T-Mac does best, and that's make contested catches down the field by high pointing the ball before the defender can break it up. What Bryce also does well have is having the ability to put touch on the ball to place it where he wants, which is a perfect fit for T-Mac and his size. Bryce would be great at placing the ball high and towards the sideline where no defender is going to have a chance at making a play on the ball given T-Mac's height and catch radius. Combine it with his vice grip hands and it's a great fit with the two of them. Bryce also doesn't have the rifle for an arm that will zip a ball into a tight window and get to the WR before a DB can get in there to challenge the play. Which again, is exactly what T-Mac is great at, he's so good at making catches in traffic while he's getting hit, because he has that big body and catches the ball with his hands out away from his body and the defender's contact. People get too hung up on what T-Mac doesn't have in the speed and quick twitch type of game that the Jefferson and Chase type of WRs have. They don't look enough at what he excels at and how it brings something else to the table that 99% of WR's just can't because they don't have the height and subsequent catch radius that T-Mac has. T-Mac is a faster Mike Evans with a slightly less physicality to his game because Evans is a good 20 lbs bigger. It's why I always compared him to AJ Green, that's who's game I've always seen when watching T-Mac.

I'm surprised Ewers is entering the draft instead of getting a huge NIL payday to transfer somewhere else next year. I'd have to imagine he'd pull in a few million as a transfer, which basically would be how much he'd get on a full mid round pick rookie contract, while also maybe having a good season and working his way into a higher draft pick.

Spoken like someone who hasn't watched nearly enough of T-Mac other than a few short highlight clips to know his game. The only thing he doesn't have is the short area quickness in the way that you're looking for, as you seem to want that Jefferson/Chase type of WR, which sure, he's not that. But him and XL are nothing alike, let alone having the same strengths and weaknesses. In particular, T-Mac's #1 strength is LITERALLY XL's #1 weakness, their hands. T-Mac has vice grips for hands, catches darn near everything, and does it all with hands catches, the opposite of XL. Beyond that, you mention prioritizing route running, of which, T-Mac already runs a complete NFL route tree at a high level. Yes, he needs to work on his get off the line at the snap and get a little crisper on some of his cuts to create separation, but again, all players need to work on something, that's just what his is. It doesn't change that he is already a great route runner, there are just some small elements of it that he can improve on. Even then, it's like I've been saying, the trade off of not having that true elite separation like the smaller WR's get, is how good he is at using his body to keep the DB's from being able to break up passes and just making contested catches in general. You lose a little bit of separation, but his 6'5" body gives him advantages that the smaller WRs just don't have. Again, your post here insinuates that T-Mac is a slow, plodding big WR who isn't a proficient route runner, which couldn't be further from the truth. I have no issue with people wanting other players over T-Mac, or just not wanting him at all. But they need to be logical reasons, not made up ones in your head because you don't actually know the player and his abilities.

Straight line running speed in a 40 has no bearing on route separation other than straight go routes, and even then, running a 40 isn't running in football games in a pads. AND... if THAT is your concern with T-Mac, then you might as well take him off your draft board, because he's not a go-route guy that is going to run past and separate from the DB. The deep ball is his specialty, but not because he out runs the DB's, it's because he high points the ball and can make those catches over defenders before they even have a chance to break it up.

Honest question... why? What difference does him running a 4.49 vs a 4.55, in underwear and is largely dependent on your ability to get out of the blocks quickly make compared to watching his tape? You can watch his tape and see his game speed, you can see him take screens or slants and out run defenders to the corner, you can see him just run away from players once he gets going. He's 6'5", he's not a quick twitch speedster in those first few steps off the line like a Jefferson, Chase, Nabers. But once he gets going a bit, he has more than enough speed, you can see it in his film. If people ONLY want a #1 WR in the mold of one of those guys, then no, you're never going to be satisfied by T-Mac's speed or even game, because he's 6'5", not 6' tall. He can't do those things that they do, but they can't do the things he can because of his size, he will be able to make catches they wouldn't have a chance on. Yes we need a speedster WR too, but I think T-Mac as the #1 and finding that elite speed in a small slot WR is the better path. I think he runs sub 4.5 because I've seen his game speed, but with his size if he's slow getting out of the crouch and first few steps, so maybe not. It's why I've never understood people looking at the 40 time so seriously for the draft, there is nothing about it that directly translates to the field unless you're main feature is being that go-route specialist.

All of this is also why I think T-Mac should be the overall #1 player on our board this year. People like to say he doesn't have "take the top off" type of speed, well Bryce doesn't have the arm to take advantage of that type of player either, he can't out throw the defense like that and let the Tyreek type catch up to it. Bryce has the "heave to get it 60 yards for a jump ball" type of arm, exactly the type of pass that is T-Mac's specialty and literally what he is best at as a WR. Bryce doesn't have the zip it into a tight window arm, but he has the touch to put the ball where he wants to. Like when you have a 6'5" WR with a stupid catch radius and vice grips for hands so you put some air under it and put it where only he can reach instead of forcing it into a window. If you want to help Bryce succeed, you draft him if he's there, no matter who else is on the board.

I don't need my QB to have arm talent for me to like them, but I do put a lot of weight to how it can affect that player's max potential when it's as bad as Bryce's is, particularly when combined with his overall size. Even the most ardent Bryce supporters can't honestly deny that Bryce is likely to have the weakest arm of all starting QB's his entire career, maybe some year's he's only in the Bottom 5, but short of pumping steroids, that's never going to change. I'm not a historian of the league on QB's arm strength compared to others, but how many players with that weak of an arm compared to the rest of the league, also was an above average QB for a sustained period of time? I know Brees didn't have a great arm and that's the comparison people like to use for Bryce, but again, he's smaller and weaker armed than even Brees was, and Brees is one of the biggest outliers in NFL history as is. Which is why Bryce was also betting on him becoming THE biggest outlier in league history at the position. Bryce doesn't need to become any certain type of QB for me to like him or to be considered a success. But he does need to become a QB who raises the play of your team, who can drag you to wins when needed, and has you as a contender in more years than not (all teams have down years, but the great QB's have their teams winning playoff games more years than not). It's why I didn't want to draft Bryce, because I just never did, and still don't, think he has that potential in him for a long period of time and at a high level. Can we put the perfect team around him and we get the right schedule in any given year for a player like him to lead us to a high seed and maybe make a run, sure of course. But those teams don't have sustained success because it takes the perfect combination of rookie contracts and lucky picks/signings that all pan out at the right time. They have a great regular season, flame out in the playoffs, and then go back to being that team that either just misses the playoffs or just makes it in to lose in the first round every year. Picking in the 13-20 range every year, always missing out on the true elite talent in the draft but still not contending. Is that who fans want us to become? I know it's better than what we've been for a while, but I want better for my team, I love our Panthers and I want us to win the Super Bowl. Prove me wrong, I want to be wrong, I don't want to be stuck in NFL purgatory, I don't want to need to have to find a new QB in 2 or 3 years because we still can't get into the playoffs. But I am who I am, and I am someone who doesn't keep his team colored glasses on at all times to only looks at the positive, I look at realities and call them how I see them. And I see Bryce as our path to NFL purgatory at best right now and it scares the living hell out of me. Bryce, prove me wrong.

The problem is that A LOT of people here haven't been saying this, they've been saying these last 10 games have proved he's the player the team thought they were drafting and are completely confident that we've found our long term QB solution. I think people pointing to the KC and Eagles games as proof of his play are just sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to elite teams overlooking games that they consider easy wins, like we were to those two legit SB caliber teams. You can not believe that's a thing if you want, and yes, sometimes those great teams blow the doors off the bad teams (like the Lions did a few times this year), but there is a LONG history of those being closer than they should be games because the better team was looking ahead. And again, my biggest fear with Bryce isn't that he'll be a complete bust. It's that he's going to become that 23rd best QB in the league and we get stuck in NFL purgatory for the next decade. To me... THAT is not finding your long term franchise QB, that's just taking shots to your nuts every season and coming back for more.

Again, #1 flaw in your post is you're trying to compare Bryce's last 10 games vs the rest of the league's 17 game averages (for the 2 TD stat). As like I pointed out, Nix falls below your 2 TD a game average number, but over his last 10 games he's actually at 2.5 per game. If you pull the best 10 game stretch for all QB's this year, I'd be quite confident in saying Bryce is NOT in the top 16. You don't want to remove the one (or two) best games from Bryce's averages but you want to include up to the 7 worst games from other QB's you're comparing him to. And the reason I picked Goff was because he was so close to the 2 TD per game number over the course of the season. Hence why I then did his best 10 game stretch to give a better comparison to your Bryce number, which again, he came in at 2.6 TDs per game. If you want to use Bryce's 10 game numbers, you need to do equal comparisons for everyone else as well. It all also again just ignores that this magical 2 TD per game number you like to point out is only the case because of 20% of the games in the stretch you're talking about, if not for that, it's significantly less.

All fair, but also see the post I just made at the same time you did this one. I think people are reading too much into my "anti Bryce" posts as, "he sucks and he's still going to be the worst QB ever." That's not the case, I'm just pushing back on this narrative over the past few weeks of, "we've found our franchise QB" as I still just don't see it. My biggest issue with him is his arm. There are a lot of pretty standard throws that he just can't make, at least not to the level that even an above average NFL QB can make. In particular it's the throws you have to drive into a small window, key word there being "drive" and not "place." As yes, I'll give him credit, he does have some nice touch to get the ball into some smaller windows. But I'm talking about that 20 yard curl route in the seam where you have a safety over the top, linebacker underneath, corner closing on the WR, and he needs to fire it in there before any can step in the path for an INT or just break it up. Or even that 15 yard out route on the opposite hash that he can't loft over there but needs to drive it in there. He just doesn't have THAT kind of arm, and in today's game, with how much better corners are getting, it's something you need to have in your bag if you want to be an above average QB. Especially when you're Bryce with the rest of his physical limitations that the has, such as his deep ball, which is easily the worst amongst starting QB's.

I also need to reiterate that nothing I've said means I'm rooting for him to fail, when he's our starting QB come week 1 next year, I'm 100% rooting for him to have an MVP season and show he can be our franchise QB, as that would be what is best for this franchise. I just don't see it happening Sure, I no longer think he's the biggest bust in NFL history who shouldn't even be on a roster like I did after last year and the start of this one. I'll give him that credit, that he's turned it around and shown me more than enough to say that's no longer the case. But even after his turnaround, I'm now back to, at best, my pre-draft evaluation of him as someone who will end up in that "20-25th best QB in the league" category. Which unfortunately in today's NFL is purgatory, that's someone probably too good for a team to ever let walk in free agency but not good enough to ever truly have you be in SB contention. Honestly, his peak potential for me is probably a Sam Darnold this year, someone who has a beneficial schedule so you put up a good record, but in the end, never really stood a chance at this time of the year. Because in the end, his physical abilities and limitations are always going to be a hinderance for him at this level. It's like I said before we drafted him, Bryce needs to be the literal biggest outlier in the history of the NFL to end up being successful.

Yes, it would be totally fair to remove the best game or two from every player's stats when you want to look at averages, just as it would be fair to remove their worst game or two as well. Average stats do NOT equal average performances. You're basically trying to use Bryce's best (or two best) games of his entire career to skew his overall averages to make it seem like those are his average performances every week. I also think it's funny that you're arguing about removing a game's stats from a player's averages, but yet you only want to look at Bryce's last 10 games and not include the ones before it. Which is exactly why I didn't bother looking up QB's who averaged 2 TD's a game, because if you really want to do that correctly, you need to go through the game logs of every starting QB and only look at their best 10 game stretch this year, and no, I'm not going through that effort. Also, looking at QB TD averages just isn't a fair way to compare QB's performances either. Let me ask you this.... do you think Bryce is even in the same league as Jared Goff right now? Because according to you, Bryce's 2.0 TD average to Goff's 2.17 TD average (on the full season) says they're pretty close to even (less than 3 TDs more over a 17 game season). But if you dig deeper you'll see that Goff's best 10 game stretch this year was 2.6 TDs per game. Dig a little deeper and you'll see that we had 12 rushing TD's this year by players not named Bryce Young, while the Lions had 2 players who EACH had at least 12 rushing TD's for a combined 28, thus taking away A LOT more TD opportunities for Goff than were taken from Bryce. Or how about this one, Bo Nix had 33 TDs this year, 1 TD short of averaging 2 TD's a game over the full season he played. But he had 25 TDs over his final 10 games of the season, averaging a full half TD more per game than Bryce did over that span, or 8.5 TD's over the course of a full season. You're criticizing me for wanting to remove Bryce's best game when looking at his averages, but at the same time want to look at Bryce's 10 game averages against 17 game averages for other players. But as you can see from all this, looking at average stats over the course of a large sample size of games is just an extremely flawed way of judging and comparing players, particularly when one or two games over that stretch drastically skew the averages. And again, no, Bryce is NOT about average when it comes to yards. Because you're trying to compare his final 10 games yards vs the NFL's overall passing yards per game, where a few teams drastically lower than average. But like I pointed out previously, there were 22 QB's to start at least 8 games this year who averaged more yards per game than Bryce did over his last 10. In a league with 32 teams, being the 23rd best QB at something doesn't make you average, it's the literal definition of below average. And again, that's comparing Bryce's best 10 game stretch vs the full season for the rest of the league, if you pull out only their 10 best starts, I'm sure he falls at least a few more spots down in that order.

Not when you consider we're getting Brown back next year and that the bulk of our cap room this offseason should be used to sign the best pass rusher we can get. That's what I've been screaming about for months, everyone thinks we need to use these early draft picks to address the DL. But the DL is the position rookies generally tend to take the longest to get up to speed and be impact players if they're not true blue chip prospects. Address the defense (and in particular the DL) through FA, it's the quickest way to improve our defense.

He had 15 TDs over his last 9 games before the final game where he had 5 TDs Again, one big game skewing averages doesn't tell a full story. He had 4 games with 1 TD, 4 games with 2 TDs, and then 2 games with 8 TDs that then pull a 10 game average up to that 2 TDs per game number. So even then, it's 2 games out of 10 skewing an arbitrary number that you're using to point towards him being a better than average QB. You don't see why that doesn't hold up once you dig into the actual numbers and where they come from? Are you saying you want to disregard his other 26 starts to focus on the 2 that skew his averages to tell the narrative you want to believe?

Fine, remove his "worst" game from the equation then, he still has over a dozen other god awful games, but if you remove his "best" game, he doesn't have another one remotely close to it. And doing team averages really is pointless as the really low ones bring that down, it's about comparing him to other QB's. There were 19 QB's (who started at least 8 games) who averaged over 220 yards passing a game. And that doesn't include Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. Who if you want to include some rushing TD stats, combined for 26 rushing TDs this year and almost 1,000 yards. Also, Allen would have averaged 233 ypg if he just didn't play week 18 instead of starting to keep his streak but not even attempt a pass before being benched. Over the last 10 games, Bryce averaged 210.4 yards passing per game. There were 22 QB's this year to average more yards per game than that, of which it doesn't include Hurts, Lawrence, or Maye, 3 players I'd trade Bryce for in a heartbeat (contracts aside of course as I wouldn't want Lawrence's or Hurt's contracts right now with the state of our roster)

This couldn't be more wrong Even if he keeps his upward trajectory, he's a LONG way away from being a clear cut franchise QB that would be stupid to trade away. People keep conflating "improvement" with "franchise QB" and they couldn't be further apart. And if he doesn't keep improving but plays equally to how he played these last 10 games, then no, he isn't going to play us into his replacement, he's going to play us into the 13th pick of the draft where we can't draft his replacement and we also still miss out on the other true elite talent. Like I said, NFL purgatory, it's the worst place a franchise can get stuck in, it's the Bengals of the Lewis/Dalton era.