poundaway

https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/gm-report/draftkings-releases-point-spreads-for-all-17-panthers-games

Draft kings has us favored in 5 games.  One is the home opener Saint's primetime game, by -1.

14 minutes ago, Pup McBarky said:

The OL will be the most stable and effective group to begin the season and that means our running game should thrive.

And we're starting down 1 OLman and another coming off injury. 

Last year we were 16th in YBC, 6th in pressure% and  6th in pocket time.  Everyone says our run blocking is better than pass pro, but the stats tell a different story.

32 minutes ago, DJ feed me moore said:

I literally cant move on, mods help! 

Yeah, had you spelled moore differently you could have said it was Chark or Johnson.  Oops.

43 minutes ago, joemac said:

Love DJ, but I think we wont have a whole lot of trouble replacing 1000 yards and 4 TDs every season.  To his credit though, he never had a real QB throwing him the ball.  Maybe Fields can become that?

Fields has no excuses this year.   We'll see.   As for  DJ, he didn't even cross 1k last year.  He had 888 yards.  Thielen had 716 on fewer attempts with 1/3 the drop rate and more first downs.  I'm not saying Thielen is as good as DJ.  I'm saying the production drop off isn't as extreme as the salary drop off.

This is probably the deepest WR class we've had in recent memory.  Low drop rates, a couple speedsters, and a couple YAC big guys.  

Will a true #1 emerge from this group with this OC and OL?  That'd be nice.

5 hours ago, NAS said:

LOL - so many of you guys were overly optimistic with Rhule and even Rivera's latter years when I cautioned against it.  Now when it's actually time to be optimistic, you want to be Debbie downers haha

For me its just so much change with a rookie QB, that I think we start slow.   With a front loaded schedule, it is not out of the realm of possibility that we start 0-6 and things get ugly around here.  I'm not predicting that, but if we choke again on prime time, its possible. 

On 5/16/2023 at 4:30 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

Who thinks CB is a strength? I think most Panthers fans realize that outside of Horn CB is a problem sport for us, especially with Jackson coming off of a torn Achilles.

It has been said many times that Horn, Jackson, and Henderson are all good CB.  Jackson and Henderson were pretty poor last year. Horn can't stay healthy.

2 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

Also, #1 pick is worth 3000 points in draft trade value charts. Pick 56 is 340 points. Sorry, 11%, I was rounding.

LOL.  You forgot to subtract the value of the 9 pick.  They didn't just give us the 1 outright.  We swapped ones.  And we had to make up the difference in with other picks.  The value we had to make up was 3000-1350=1650.  That's 20%.    You're just plain off dude.

The standard is to subtract a round for out years due to the uncertainty and time.  A 1st round pick in 2050 is NOT worth the same as today dude.  It just isn't.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/la9tda/how_much_value_do_future_draft_picks_hold/

Your math sucks and you clearly have no clue how to value future picks.

Done wasting my time with you.

18 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

CMC’s trade didn’t matter in terms of Young, we had plenty of picks including our 50% more valuable 2nd. CMC’s 2nd was a dime of value out of the dollar we gave up for Bryce. We still easily make the Young deal regardless of CMC.

LOL

That 2nd was more than 10% of the trade value. Apparently you do not  understand that future picks are worth LESS than current picks due to uncertainty and the value of time.  You have to subtract a round for each out year.  Most people believe DJ Moore saved us a 2025 1st, which would be equiv to a 3rd rounder this year, the 24 1st is worth a 2nd this year.  The 25 2nd is worth a 4th this year. 

So in order to swap 1sts this year, the Bears charged us draft points worth  two 2nds, a 3rd and 4th this year.  CMC's second was not 10% by any stretch.

I do agree we could have given up Mingo to do the trade, but we didn't.  We used CMC's second.

8 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

CMC’s trade did not get us Young.

lol Didn't say that.   The CMC trade definitely contributed to it.
 

Say what you want, the biggest pick we got for CMC went to pay for Young.

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

 any suggestion that we aren't a better team with a player like that on the roster is pure fantasy.

When he's healthy.

13 minutes ago, DeAngelo Beason said:

I think trading him is one of the smartest moves in franchise history.

If Young pans out, it will be.  We used the 2nd from CMC to get Young.

16 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

And the Panthers are not awful and have downgraded from CMC and Moore?

5 of those teams went on to win the SB and 6 of them went to the SB. All those teams were awful?

34 SB winning QBs, 35 SB winning HCs, and 29 QBs drafted #1 overall. Go ahead and find the non-playoff teams drafting a QB #1 overall that won enough games in their rookie season to make the playoffs. How about the teams that traded up to the #1 overall like the Panthers to get their QB. How did that work out in year 1?

Having people try to make an exception for the Panthers going from #9 to #1 as though that means they are better than the teams that finished last, or that there were no teams like the Panthers who traded up.

The insane take would be comparing the Panthers to the Steelers under Cowher, the Chiefs under Reid, or the Ravens under Harbaugh going after a 1st round QB for a team that is already a contender with SB All-pro leadership already on the team.

CMC participated in 1 win from 6 games last year. Historically Moore and Thielen have been on par, we'll see if age catches up with Thielen this year.  Last year DJ dropped 5.9% of his passes.  Thielen dropped 1.9%. 

Reich>>> Rhule.  Evero>>>Holcomb. 

Building on 7 wins, there's reason to hope that we are a playoff team. 

But there is just so much change this year with a lot of moving parts and a rookie QB.  It seems we should start slow and we start the schedule with division games.  If we win the first two games, we should be a force to contend with.

I get the optimism.  I also understand the caution.

Q:Your thoughts on Bryce young at five foot ten.
Brown :I never cared about it.   It was never an issue in my opinion just for me. I evaluate tape.  We're still playing football. If we were in a competition for the tallest the biggest the fastest the strongest like it's an overall combine deal then maybe  I would.

Jackson didn't look great last year.   Henderson looked worse.  We should have kept Gilmore.  Horn can't stay healthy.  CB is not the strength some around here think it is.

8 hours ago, ncfan said:

lol

Yeah, Simms is off a lot.  And when he misses.....

2 hours ago, OceanPanther said:

Rookie season

Cam 6 wins

Payton  3 wins

Trevor Lawrence 3 wins

I think Bryce Young has  better team around him than any of those three. I think he has better coaching than those 3's rookie seasons. I think the division is weaker than those 3's when a rookie.

Panthers,  win 10 

Stay Healthy My Friend

 

Cam had Stewart, DeAngelo, Olsen, Smitty, Kalil, Gross, Hardy, Johnson.

There was a lot of talent on that team, some of the greatest Panthers of all time.

This is not NFCS of 2022.  Atlanta, Saints and Buc did not stand still, huge changes in the division.

7.5 sounds like a reasonable guess.  New HC, DC, Wr1,Wr2,RB, TE, injured OL, rookie OC, rookie QB, rookie WR#?, injured CB new base D scheme.....a LOT of moving parts.  It seems unlikely that we'll hit the ground running week 1 (on the road against a division rival).   

If we do, look out.

5 hours ago, CPcavedweller said:

Again, people here with blind optimism when there is video out there of Stroud and Levis shredding with laser throws and the same movements as Bryce. 

Its not blind.  Its just optimism.  We're cheering on our new QB.

As for the S2roud and Levis worship of yours.  Talk about blind optimism... for other teams QBs.

1 hour ago, Hoenheim said:

If I was a troll or spammer I'd be bringing it up a lot more often

 

No, you're just the latest.  We've had months of posts about it. 

You are free to post.  Others are free to react.

The only study on injury says not only is size not a real concern, smaller is actually an advantage.   The anecdotes (Cam, Wilson, PJ Coral) confirm it.  When asked for examples of smaller players getting hurt because they are smaller, and the injury can be attributed to his size, no examples were given.  The same goes to data shown for batted balls.  In the end, its just bias, or more accurately, biased bullshlt.
 

The problem isn't that Young is small, its that some people are  small minded.

2 hours ago, vorbis said:

 I doubt they'd just throw him in a trade like that after a very successful season.

True.  But I'd also doubt that they would trade up to #1 to draft a QB either.

It would be another Jordan Love situation, on roids.

20 minutes ago, BombzAway said:

I hate to continue this topic here but I'm sure most all of us KNOW its going to be something people talk about throughout his career. What I HOPE is that his play becomes the thing MOST talked about (and definitely in a positive way).

The question I have because I didn't look or delve deeply into it but was there this much questioning and concern when Alabama named him their starter? Obviously his size was just as much a thing then and in the big bad SEC as it is now. How did Saban approach the topic when Young took that job? How did fans take it when he was named starter and how long did it take them to look beyond it? Just curious.

The size concerns won't die here until Young is winning because some people are butthurt when we didn't chose  the QB they wanted.  If we are losing, any Young mistakes/hiccups/injuries will be blamed on his size.  If we are winning, the "size concerns" will die down.

PJ Walker was on this team last year and next to no one was complaining about his size.  How often before the games were people terrified that PJ might get hurt?  Most of the jokes were about he how he "never lost".

1 hour ago, BlackPanther22 said:

I’m glad we’re getting the height talk out of our system now so that when OTA’s and camp roll around and Bryce is hopefully carving it up in practice, we can focus on other things. 
 

3 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

No, you are totally incorrect here.

It's not about actually completing it, at all.  Just because Mahomes only completed 2 passes like that last year, doesn't mean when they sent their WR's on those go routes that the defense just said, "we're good" once they get past 40ish yards and not worry about it.

Just the ability of the QB to put the ball out there at that distance forces the defense to play a little further back.  In every defensive scouting report against a team like the Chiefs, Chargers, Bills, etc (teams with those massive armed QB's), it will have notes in there about watching out for the super deep ball, being aware of it, and accounting for it.

That just will never show up in a scouting report for Bryce, because he doesn't have that arm.

And again, nobody has once said this is a disqualifier for him to being a successful QB, people are just pointing out that he has average arm strength and it takes one thing off the table for us that other teams may have.  Which I think is the bigger problem here, you're just missing the point as to why people are talking about it.

Nobody is saying it's going to keep him from being good, but if you can't objectively look at your players and know their strengths, weaknesses, and how either can benefit or hinder a team's performance, then you have no standing in a discussion like this.  Everything isn't rainbows and butterflies, but it doesn't mean the sky is falling either.

I'm not saying Young has a awesome arm.  His arm strength is midling. 

Few QB's have Allen's arm.

You're just overestimating the importance of being able to throw 60+ yards inaccurately.  As I said Mahomes threw beyond 40 yards just 8 times last year.  One completion at 57.

How many of Mahomes' passes sailed longer than 60? 

If it is so important, surely someone tracks the vital stat.

We had the quarterback who has thrown the longest ball in the history of the NFL.  It was a 70.5 yard hail mary thrown against the Baltimore Ravens.  It fell incomplete.

His name is Baker Mayfield and he made that throw when he played for the Browns.