poundaway

The moral of the story: Don't go on TV after you smoke a bunch of crack.

It depends on your definition of hit. Darnold and Mayfield are considered hits in this analysis: https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/ Jared Goff was a 2x pro-bowler, SB QB, but Rams traded him away after his rookie deal. If you are traded away at the end of your rookie deal, are you a bust? Some consider Goff a bust.

This.

Drafting a 1st round QB involves luck as well. The hit rate isn't great.

True. Since comp pics are after the round, its a beyond bottom 3rd or above top 4th pick, a 3.5 pick. But if you do that you have to subtract the 5th we got for Kyle Allen. They don't cancel out, but it isn't a net loss of a third, its somewhere in the 4th round pick.

Fitterer is repeating what they did in Seattle, looking under rocks trying to find a QB. At the end of this year we'll have turned over the Teddy, Sam, Cam, and Mayfield stones. We may have peeked at Corral. Its an ugly process and absolutely sucks for fans.

It's a great analysis. But, we got a '21 6th back when we traded away Teddy, so Sam cost a '22 2nd and 4th. Corral cost a '22 4th and a '23 3rd (not '22) Mayfield is likely going to hit the targets and its in '24,not in '23, so the pick was a '24 4th. Ignoring the value of time and using mid-round picks that's: 2nd + 3rd + 2x4ths = 420+190+2x70 = 750 = pick 24.5 GM's would rather have additional picks in the current draft over picks out in the future. 1st round picks from 2050 have next to zero value atm because nobody wants them now. The rule of thumb to adjust for that is to subtract a round for each out year. Using that logic, Sam cost a 3rd and 5th rounder, Corral 2x 4th rounders, and Mayfield a 5th (this years draft was over, so only one draft out). 3rd + 2x4th+ 2x5th =190+2x70+ 2x 34 = 398 = pick 52 or a late 2nd rounder for all 3 qbs we have now. And we have paid about 18 million a year for our starting QB per year. So the value of the trades at the time they were executed was somewhere between pick 24 and 52. We ended up at the bottom of the league, and Sam was a bust, so what looked like a cheap trade at the time, ended up being wasted valuable capital. We didn't break the bank though. We still drafted the QB we wanted and traded for an at least average QB to give the rookie time to develop.

We paid Sam 5.7 million last year. So over the last 3 years we paid around 54.6 million or 18.2 a year (not including backups or Cam's dead cap)

You're right it doesn't. He still has a tough schedule ahead - Week 1: Myles Garrett - Week 2: Kayvon Thibodeaux/Leonard Williams - Week 3: Cameron Jordan/Marcus Davenport - Week 4: J.J. Watt/Zach Allen - Week 5: Nick Bosa

Jury is out on both Icky and Christensen. I didn't think Christensen looked as good as every one else did, but we also had him play all along the line. If we slot him in at LG and keep him there, he may develop into a really good linemen. As for Icky, he's a rookie so we'll see. He faces Garrett game one.

If you would read more and post less, you'd see. We don't have to go find them for you. There are many posts saying that "long term" Mayfield is a mistake because winning "a couple extra games" hurts our draft position. This should help:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxBEmaaSh1c

Relax dude. You need to take a break. You've been doing 3700 posts a year for while now.

They saw what Sam and Corral had up close in OTA's and mini-camp and decided to close the deal for Mayfield. Lets see what Corral has in preseason before we crown him.

Yeah I don't understand "fans" who want us to lose, as if losing is a strategy to win.

Last fall, after the flag-planting and the crotch-grabbing, one media member tweeted out that Mayfield would be of no interest to an NFL team given that sort of behavior. The QB took a screenshot and stored it on his phone. He’d look at it when he worked out, friends say, for motivation. Then, in March, as it became clear that his would be one of the first names called at the draft in Dallas, he tracked down that media member’s phone number and sent him the screenshot. “Who’s this?” the recipient asked. “Someone who’s going to text you on April 26.” I like him.

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/18/panthers-qb-gives-david-carr-baker-mayfield-sam-darnold/ NFL Network analyst David Carr. And while Delhomme’s one-time teammate did catch his drift, he believes the timing of Mayfield’s acquisition says a lot about Carolina’s faith (or lack thereof) in Darnold. “Jake is absolutely right,” Carr said. “It’s gonna be very difficult for Baker to come in—right before training camp—learn the guys, get a feel for this. But what has happened is—they’ve gone through OTAs, they’ve gone through minicamps with Sam Darnold and they’ve said, ‘It’s not enough. We gotta go get somebody.’ So, that for me is a big warning sign if I’m Sam Darnold. Like, they went out and got another quarterback because of what you guys looked like as an offense in the spring. For me, that says Baker Mayfield is the quarterback.”

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2021/10/21/baker-mayfield-injury-update-broken-humerus-torn-shoulder-labrum/ The speculation about the severity of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield’s injured shoulder just amped up to another level. FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer reports that Mayfield has a fractured humerus bone in his left arm in addition to the torn labrum on the left (non-throwing) shoulder. Notes: Baker Mayfield day to day with knee bruise and further damage ruled out https://www.brownszone.com/2021/11/15/notes-baker-mayfield-day-to-day-with-knee-bruise-and-further-damage-ruled-out/ https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/11/22/baker-mayfield-doesnt-care-that-fans-boo-him Mayfield's down year can be attributed to the growling list of injuries he continues to play through that include a torn labrum in his shoulder, bone bruise on his knee and a bruised heel. And still he had 8 more touchdowns than Sam. How many games did we lose by one score?

Apparently the OP is not alone.

Its funny, Baker played an important role in taking the Browns to the playoffs after a long drought and they replaced him. McAdoo to the Giants to the playoffs and they fired him the next year, and they haven't been back since McAdoo.

Hopefully the new line additions will help.

Great post. I am optimistic for him. But Rhule suks, so we will. I'm I doing it right?

And the stats back that up. We were 18th in first downs. That's not top half, that's not top 10. Its below average. Its just not bottom of the league. We were bottom of the league in takeways, which is hard to see because, its hard see something not-happening.

Neither Mayfield or Darnold are on contract for next year. If a new coach can't figure out what to do with them, he's probably ad bad choice for coach.

We're still talking ourselves into Ron Rivera who's had 3 winning seasons in 11 as HC and wasted a bunch of very talented players potential. Remember when we were excited by Norv Turner? To watch Norv's last good O, you need vhs.