Icege

Legit surprised. I assumed that Rhule was just going to promote his ST coach from Baylor that's the assistant now to full-time ST coach.

Another comparison: both played a ranked Wake Forest in 2021. Pickett: 20/33 (60.6%) for 253yds, 2 TDs, 7.7 Y/A, 6 rushing attempts for 20yds (3.3avg), 1 rushing TD, 1 fumble Howell: 16/26 (61.5%) for 216yds, 1 TD, 8.3 Y/A, 21 rushing attempts for 104yds (5.0avg), 2 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles Howell had the higher completion percentage, more total yards, equal total touchdowns, better rushing average, higher Y/A, and less fumbles. I haven't gotten to watch as many of Howell's games as I have Pickett (1v4), but I'm already leaning towards Howell being the better prospect. Not saying that either are worth #6, franchise guys, or even sure fire busts. Just my own personal ranking(s) explained.

@ShockerGot back to the desktop and was curious about Howell's numbers vs. top-25 opponents He's 5-8 vs. top-25 opponents, 2-6 vs. those same opponents that were still ranked at the end of the season (same as Pickett). In those 2-6 games, he's 140/220 (63.6%) for 1812 yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.3 Y/A, 109 rushing attempts for 358 yards (3.3avg), 2 rushing TDs, and 1 fumble. With the same record under the same parameters, Sam Howell has a slightly higher completion percentage (63.6v50), more passing yards (1923v1368), triple the passing TDs (12v4), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.8), almost five times the rushing yards (and average rushing yards) (358v85), the same amount of TDs (2), and a fourth of the fumbles (1v4). Even if you add those two 2021 games for Pickett, , Howell still has the better completion percentage, more passing TDs (12v8), half the INTs (4v8), higher Y/A (+2.3), almost triple the rushing yards (and rushing average) (358v120), and a fifth of the fumbles (1v5).

I've almost finished my Pickett evaluation and am working on Howell next followed by Willis, Ridder, Corral, and Strong in that order. Part of me really wants to check Brock Purdy out as well.

AY/A = Air Yards / Average Y/A = Yards / Average AY/A is basically the average distance their passes travel through the air. If a player has a very high Y/A vs. a very low AY/A then they are likely benefitting from playmaker more than actually being the playmaker themselves. There is a whole thread where Pickett's hand size was discussed. Not at the desktop atm, otherwise I'd link it for you to save you the time searching. I didn't take his stat line from his 10 worst games. I took his stat line from the 10 games he played in college where his opponents were ranked not just when they played but at the end of the year itself. That's isolating his games against top opponents, not cherry picking. This has been a calm exchange so far, so let's keep it that way rather than tossing accusations instead of addressing the argument.

You're looking at average air yards there, not average yards. His AY/A was 9.7, but his Y/A was 8.7. He definitely looked deeper this year, especially considering that his AY/A were 7.3, 6.3, 6.3, 6.8 prior to the 9.7 jump. The Herbert stat you looked at for 8.1 is actually 9.0 when comparing the same stat. Herbert's numbers are consistently higher than Pickett's despite Herbert playing in a system where he didn't often push the ball deep downfield. The hand size isn't an advanced metric, but it is another ding against him. The hand size concern correlates to his propensity to fumble, which he averaged once every other game. During the same time span in the pros, Russell Wilson averaged a fumble once every four games (and he's got 10.25" hands). This is a much different issue than arm length, which can be compensated for with quick feet. Some more metrics, basic or advanced, that hurt him: While he's 13-10 vs. top-25 opponents in-season, he's only 3-7 against teams that remained ranked at the end of the season His combined stat line from those 10 games is: 183/302 (60.6%) for 1,923yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.0 Y/A; 92 rushing attempts for 120 yards (1.1yd avg), 3 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles. That averages out to a really bad stat line on a per game basis. Before 2021, he was 2-6 with the following stat line: 138/230 (60%) for 1,368yds, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.5 Y/A, 79 rushing attempts for 85yds (0.6avg), 2 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles

A/Y especially stood out (7.3yds career) as it showed he was looking short more often than not. Hand size is a concern (8.25"). He's essentially a one year wonder at the position when looking at his stats. Watching him play though, you see him taking his shots deep, but his WRs often have to slow down (or even turn around) for the ball when he's going deep. The ball doesn't leap out of his hand either. Very much a touch passer from what it looks, but watching some of his senior year games he was most definitely looking deeper (also seen by his 2021 8.7 A/Y). His TD:INT ratio was also fairly suspect. He more or less exploded during his senior year and that's going to be a huge concern for evaluators.

Players attending tomorrow's HBCU Combine: Dee Anderson, TE, Alabama A&M Aqeel Glass, QB, Alabama A&M Ezra Gray, RB, Alabama State Felix Harper, QB, Alcorn State Juwan Taylor, DS, Alcorn State Solomon Wise, OLB, Alcorn State Josh Wilkes, WR, Arkansas Pine-Bluff KeShawn Williams, RB, Arkansas Pine-Bluff Untareo Johnson, OLB, Bethune-Cookman Jamal Savage, OT, Bethune-Cookman Trey Gross, WR, Delaware State Kwannah Kollie, WR, Delaware State Elvin De La Rosa, DS, Fayetteville State Keyshawn James, DE, Fayetteville State Antwan Collier, DS, Florida A&M Keenan Forbes, OG, Florida A&M Shemar Bridges, WR, Fort Valley State James Fagan, DT, Hampton Jett Duffey, QB, Hampton Keith Corbin, WR, Jackson State Kingston Davis, RB, Miles Jerry Garner, OLB, Mississippi Valley State Juwan Carter, QB, Norfolk State Chris Myers, OLB, Norfolk State Korey Banks, WR, North Carolina A&T Ron Hunt, WR, North Carolina A&T Jah-Maine Martin, RB, North Carolina A&T Jawon Pass, QB, Prairie View A&M Chad Gilchrist, ILB, South Carolina State Zafir Kelly, DC, South Carolina State Will Vereen, WR, South Carolina State Marquis McClain, WR, Southern Ladarius Skelton, QB, Southern Cam Durley, OT, Tennessee State Cory Rahman, DS, Tennessee State Jonathan Giles, WR, Texas Southern Jeff Proctor, RB, Texas Southern Will Adams, DS, Virginia State Javon Frazier, OLB, Virginia State Zachary Wilcox, OT, Virginia State

January 28th: HBCU Combine (University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama) February 3rd: East-West Shrine Bowl (Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada) 5th: Senior Bowl (Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama) 19th: HBCU Legacy Bowl (Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana) March 1st - 7th: NFL Scouting Combine (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana) 8th, 4:00pm EST: Franchise Tag deadline 14th, 12:00pm EST - 16th, 4:00pm EST: Legal tampering period for UFAs 16th, 4:00pm EST: 2022 League Year + Free Agency begin 27th - 30th: Annual League Meeting April 18th: Offseason workouts begin (4th for new head coaches) 20th: Last day to bring prospects on-site 22nd: RFA offer sheets deadline 27th: Last day to interview prospects 28th - 30th: NFL Draft (Las Vegas, Nevada)

TBK rooting for a team that isn't the Panthers? Glad to see that some things have never changed

Imagine the shock of incompetence going from Belichick to Rhule

Malik Willis and Sam Howell have been so difficult to evaluate. The stats uplift Howell and bury Willis, but watching the game itself uplifts Willis while burying Howell. Pickett and Corral are in a similar boat for me. Advanced metrics don't look great, but on the field looks much better.

I can't help but wonder if some of the posters in this thread patronizing others over the Saints use of voidable years also think that NFTs are a good idea.

Remember the last QB prospect that we had the tiny hands discussion about? Jimmy Clausen fwiw, Pickett looks much better than Clausen but unfortunately with the same amount of arm strength. His aggressive tendencies are going to get him into trouble in the pros as those windows are much, much tighter to fit into. Also, the concerns with hand size for a QB are the aforementioned ability to throw a tighter (and therefore farther) spiral as well as concerns with ball security. The thought is that of all players, the QB is the one most likely to be running with the ball hanging from one hand while he's still looking to throw it. You don't want the slightest impact to jar that ball loose. With that said, Kenny Pickett averaged a fumble every other game in college with 8.25" hands. Russell Wilson has 10.25" hands and averages a fumble every 4 games in the pros.

Of those 3 teams, the Lions are the most likely to get them anything if a team is forced into it.

ngl I'd probably pee a little I was admittedly low on Sam Howell, but the more I dig into learning about his game the higher I start to get on him. Being able to grab a franchise LT + QB (both with 5th year options available) is well worth this year's 1st + next year's 2nd & 3rd.

I was trying to find how many times Pickett has fumbled to try and find the very same stat for him, but most of the page 1 stuff on Google didn't have it for some reason. EDIT: Found a site! 28 fumbles over 52 games (13:7). Fumbles almost once every other game

Before the write up, my order of preference (not necessarily best-to-worst talent-wise) was: 1. Matt Corral 2. Kenny Pickett 3. Malik Willis 4. Sam Howell 5. Carson Strong 6. Desmond Ridder After the write up (but before film study!): 1. Sam Howell 2. Desmond Ridder 3. Carson Strong 4. Kenny Pickett 5. Matt Corral 6. Malik Willis Next step for me is to watch 3-4 games for each QB (my preference is to watch one of their best games, worst games, a game vs a top-25 opponent, and a Bowl/Championship/rivalry game if available). I watched Pickett's 2021 game vs. Duke earlier and still have 2021 NC State, 2021 Clemson, and 2020 Clemson games to watch for him.

I'm very interested in how the front 7 is addressed. The team is set at DB imo with the exception of finding a 3rd safety, so figuring out how we're going to shore up the run defense is a priority. Brown, Nixon, Hoskins, and Roy all seem capable, though I wouldn't mind a veteran run stuffer being added to the group to push one of them for a spot. The DEs are my primary concern here has we're losing depth and the guys that Rhule brought in seem about as effective as his QBs have been. Burns is a starter and YGM is developing nicely as somebody that can line up as an end on run downs and kick inside to the 3-tech on passing downs. Fox was a disappointment, Haynes is set for FA, and I've already mentioned how I view Johnson. Reddick won't be retainable, but Frankie Luvu will. We can have him start as the Sam, find a Mike, and we'll finally have a competent starting LB group again.

And 9" hands I'm scared.

fwiw, the A/Y Mahomes: 8.3 Allen: 7.8 Rodgers: 8.2 Gabbert: 7.3 Locker: 6.7 Clausen: 7.3

Ironically enough, I edited the post you quoted so that it no longer said... "To go ahead and get ahead of the dudes that like to wear diapers at the office: Yes, I know that you don't like Michael Lombardi. Yes, I know that you don't like Matt Rhule. Yes, I know that you miss Cam. Yes, I know that you hate Sam. I'm very proud of you for whatever your one line quip was. Here's pie."

One day, I'll learn to edit a write-up before posting it and rushing to fix everything within the 10-minute edit window. T_T

Sam Darnold is not the answer. Anybody with a pair of functioning eyes and critical thinking skills knows this to be the case for the Panthers' QB position... so who is? Is it an upcoming veteran free agent or is it a college kid ready to leap to the next level? Is the answer already on the roster? (Hint: No.) So what makes a player a franchise QB? Arm talent? Accolades and awards? Being a beloved leader of men? With Matt Rhule and company seeming to not know themselves, why not consult with somebody that's been around teams that have successfully found a franchise QB: Michael Lombardi (who's son, Matt, is our current assistant QBs coach). He's been involved with scouting football since 1981 when he was a recruiting coordinator for UNLV and was a scout for the San Francisco 49ers' 1984 Super Bowl. Years upon years later, and he's the assistant to the coaching staff for the New England Patriots during their 2014 run with long-time friend and coworker Bill Belichick. In his book, Gridiron Genius: A Master Class in Building Teams and Winning at the Highest Level, Lombardi lists "7 QB Qualities" that he leans on after watching the league for 30 years and assessing that, "Very few people can coach the quarterback, and even fewer can evaluate them." 1. A Winning Way It's worth noting here that Lombardi specifically cites yards per attempt, not air yards per attempt. A decision to hit an open man in space underneath that can gain several yards after the catch is a better decision than trying to get it to the guy a yard or two further that isn't going to go anywhere. With that in mind, let's take a look at three recent QBs for the Panthers. Cam Newton, during his first two seasons with Rod Chudzinski as his OC, averaged 7.9 Y/A. After Mike Shula took over, the only time Cam hit close to that average was in 2015 when he matched his rookie Y/A with 7.8. His career Y/A in Carolina is 7.2, but we all know that Cam had a cannon and during his first two seasons the team was taking full advantage of it. The moment that Shula took over as play caller, everything shortened, taking Cam from his 7.9 Y/A under Chud to 7.0 Y/A under Shula. We also very well know about Cam's prolific college career and his ability to win in the NFL. Teddy Bridgewater, despite popular belief, actually has the higher career Y/A out of all 3 QBs with 7.3 Y/A. In fact, his one year in Carolina netted his highest career average with 7.6 Y/A. To put this in perspective, the last time the Panthers saw anything remotely close to that was in 2015 when Cam somehow went off for 7.8 Y/A in a Mike Shula offense. Teddy also had the 23 wins that Parcells wanted with a 12-1 2013, 11-2 2012, and 7-6 2011. Finally, Sam Darnold. While he didn't get to that 23 win mark, he was close (21-6). His 8.5 Y/A seems solid, but it's still 3rd behind Teddy's 8.6 and Cam's 10.9 when they were in college. During his time with the Jets, Darnold's Y/A was 6.6. His one year in Carolina? 6.2. Sam + Teddy were not the answer (Cam is no longer the answer either). However, looking at the 23W + Y/A metrics, we can see a few different things emerge. In his book, Lombardi uses Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson as examples due to Trubisky being a "one year wonder." He pointed out how against top-25 teams Trubisky's Y/A dropped from 8.3 to 6.2. When he was playing ahead, his Y/A jumped to 9.1 vs. 7.2 when he was playing from behind. Deshaun averaged 7.7 Y/A when ahead, 9.4 when down. Watson won 32 games in college compared to Trubisky's 8. Using this model, let's apply it now towards the top QB prospects in this year's draft. We'll take a look at their wins as a starter (keeping in mind the COVID-shortened seasons, I'd argue that lowering the bar to 20 wins is reasonable. While this information isn't enough to come to any sort of accurate conclusion, it's an early look that might be able to guide us going forward. Wins 1. Desmond Ridder: 44 wins 2. Kenny Pickett: 32 wins 3. Sam Howell: 20 wins 3. Carson Strong: 20 wins 5. Matt Corral: 18 wins 6. Malik Willis: 17 wins Y/A 1. Sam Howell: 9.2 Y/A [8.6 (2019), 10.3 (2020), 8.8 (2021)] 2. Matt Corral: 9.1 Y/A [10.9 (2018), 7.7 (2019), 10.2 (2020), 9.2 (2021)] 3. Malik Willis: 8.5 Y/A [8.5 (2020), 8.4 (2021)] 4. Desmond Ridder: 7.9 Y/A [7.9 (2018), 6.7 (2019), 8.2 (2020), 8.6 (2021)] 5. Carson Strong: 7.5 Y/A [6.2 (2019), 8.1 (2020), 8.0 (2021)] 6. Kenny Pickett: 7.3 Y/A [7.7 (2017), 6.4 (2018), 6.6 (2019), 7.3 (2020), 8.7 (2021)] 2. A Thick Skin Cam overcame adversity in college after the laptop incident, going to JUCO, and then culminating in a season that resulted in a national title, Heisman, and #1 overall draft status. While he was routinely criticized for how he handled losses, the only people that would call Cam soft are talking heads. We witnessed all we needed to from injuries, car accidents, etc. to know that couldn't be further from the truth. Teddy, on the other hand, I wouldn't necessarily say has "thick skin" as much as he does "scarred skin." He lets mistakes and criticisms slide off and has fought back from a devastating injury that most folks don't come back from. However, that injury I think scarred him in a way that has him looking to play safe even when he needs to gamble. Where Cam gambled and won, Teddy seems to be the kind of guy that gambled and is just grateful he still has his shoes when he timidly puts a chip each on evens, odds, black, and red. Do we really need to discuss Sam? He was coddled during the preseason. Where some people might see him having thick skin under duress, I see him dissociating. When looking at the current prospects, Carson Strong might be worth mentioning due to the way he's handled injuries. I'm not aware of the hardships that any of the other individuals had to endure, but I'm sure the media trauma porn machine will be in full effect here soon to catch us all up. 3. Work Ethic Does Sam Darnold love football, or is he just playing it? I'd lean towards the latter, as much has been made by people close to Sam (like Bills' Josh Allen) in regards to his natural athleticism and ability to immediately pick something up. I don't think Cam nor Teddy can be questioned. Cam regularly took responsibility for things that had nothing to do with him and made it a point to improve. Teddy wanted the team to work smarter and harder, given his comments regarding the Panthers' practices lacking any focus on 2min/redzone. The major takeaway from this particular attribute from Lombardi was that you can't teach work ethic. He cites the infamous JaMarcus Russell & Johnny Manziel, of course, but also cites Brett Favre's time with the Falcons. Favre was such a lush that Falcons' coach Jerry Glanville drove around town asking bartenders not to serve Favre. Eventually, the QB was traded to Green Bay and figured himself out. That's an extreme rarity. Malik Willis turned heads at Liberty when he arrived there, inspiring his teammates with how hard he worked and uplifted those around him. Following their win over FIU where Malik was hurt, WR DJ Stubbs said afterwards, "Since he stepped foot on campus, he's taken us under his wing, just wanted to be the best he can be, so that he pushes us to be the best we can be, for him. Today, I just showed that wherever you put the ball... whatever you need from me, I can make it happen for you." As you're probably already noticing, a lot of these QB Attributes overlap. Work ethic and leadership go hand in hand. Innate Ability and A Winning Way are most certainly linked. Etc etc. 4. Football Smarts When reading this section I started to ask myself, "How can football smarts be measured?" I wanted to keep it simple, so I went with what I felt might be an obvious indicator of decision making: TD-INT ratio. 1. Sam Howell: 92:23 (4:1) 2. Carson Strong: 74:19 3. Desmond Ridder: 87:28 4. Malik Willis: 48:18 (8:3) 5. Kenny Pickett: 81:32 6. Matt Corral: 57:23 Take that for what you will. 5. Innate Ability This section describes Sam Darnold to the letter. He played freshman baseball, and then started playing football + basketball during his sophomore year (in which he excelled at basketball, being awards the South Coast League MVP twice) as well as being named to the all-CIF team. On the football field, Darnold was a WR and a LB and didn't play QB until after the starter was hurt. He missed most of his junior year with a foot injury and was rated as a four-star recruit as the 8th best dual-threat QB + 179th best player overall. Due to the lack of tape, his coaches sent videos of his basketball games to football coaches. We regularly see Darnold hold on to the ball and have to make a play when it breaks down because he himself cannot process a defense. He doesn't have that innate ability. We saw Cam regularly do it. Teddy didn't have that innate ability either, and we saw that rear it's head when the team went 0-8 in one score games during his season at the helm. I wish that I had some immediately available metrics on the current QB class to see if we can measure this (maybe looking at QBR in big games? 4th quarter winning drives?), and nothing in the current class' profiles shows anything that we can really glean from at a quick glance. If anything, Desmond Ridder running away with the win column just might be a testament to his innate ability? 6. Carriage I think that Randy Marsh speaks for all of us here in regards to that exception: 7. Leadership Pretty sure having your WR scream at you to "Tighten the fug up!" on the sidelines and then giving a Cutler stare is not a sign of leadership. We've seen the difference in the Panthers' players when Cam steered the team vs. Sam, even if it was to similar results. This is something that cannot be talked up enough, but also something that Panthers fans have a very real concern with given what Matt Rhule has done with the position and players that are outspoken leaders. While his numbers aren't doing him any favours, Matt Corral does have that leadership quality as evidenced in this article. Matt Corral got into a fight with Wayne Gretzsky's son in high school and transferred because he said it was a bunch of, "rich kids," that wouldn't have to, "work a day in their lives." Later, at Ole Miss, During the height of the protests following the murder of George Floyd by police, Corral's teammate put him on the spot and asked him what he thought about what was going on. They specifically pointed out that Corral was the QB, and this player being a defender knowing that it the QB is more-or-less the frontman for the team wanted to know how they would be represented. The way Corral responded afterwards won him the love and backing of those teammates. Throughout his book, Michael Lombardi emphasizes the totality of a football team. He points out how all three phases of the game are equally important, how great players can mask deficiencies but those deficiencies still exist and can be exploited, how a QB's success is directly tied to his fit within the system and the pieces placed around him, etc. Above all else though, it's a crapshoot. We've got some young prospects that we can look at to be potential franchise QBs (along with some top flight OL prospects!). Which of them stand out to you as fulfilling these attributes that Lombardi has listed? Are there any possible free agents that you'd be interested in kicking the tires on? How would you compare those currently known commodities to the unknown ones when they were early in their careers as well? Are there any attributes that you specifically look for that might not have been mentioned/covered?