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Everything posted by Icege
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ngl I'd probably pee a little I was admittedly low on Sam Howell, but the more I dig into learning about his game the higher I start to get on him. Being able to grab a franchise LT + QB (both with 5th year options available) is well worth this year's 1st + next year's 2nd & 3rd.
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I was trying to find how many times Pickett has fumbled to try and find the very same stat for him, but most of the page 1 stuff on Google didn't have it for some reason. EDIT: Found a site! 28 fumbles over 52 games (13:7). Fumbles almost once every other game
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Before the write up, my order of preference (not necessarily best-to-worst talent-wise) was: 1. Matt Corral 2. Kenny Pickett 3. Malik Willis 4. Sam Howell 5. Carson Strong 6. Desmond Ridder After the write up (but before film study!): 1. Sam Howell 2. Desmond Ridder 3. Carson Strong 4. Kenny Pickett 5. Matt Corral 6. Malik Willis Next step for me is to watch 3-4 games for each QB (my preference is to watch one of their best games, worst games, a game vs a top-25 opponent, and a Bowl/Championship/rivalry game if available). I watched Pickett's 2021 game vs. Duke earlier and still have 2021 NC State, 2021 Clemson, and 2020 Clemson games to watch for him.
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Our Roster -- Players We Feel Good About (Part 2 - Defense)**
Icege replied to SetfreexX's topic in Carolina Panthers
I'm very interested in how the front 7 is addressed. The team is set at DB imo with the exception of finding a 3rd safety, so figuring out how we're going to shore up the run defense is a priority. Brown, Nixon, Hoskins, and Roy all seem capable, though I wouldn't mind a veteran run stuffer being added to the group to push one of them for a spot. The DEs are my primary concern here has we're losing depth and the guys that Rhule brought in seem about as effective as his QBs have been. Burns is a starter and YGM is developing nicely as somebody that can line up as an end on run downs and kick inside to the 3-tech on passing downs. Fox was a disappointment, Haynes is set for FA, and I've already mentioned how I view Johnson. Reddick won't be retainable, but Frankie Luvu will. We can have him start as the Sam, find a Mike, and we'll finally have a competent starting LB group again. -
And 9" hands I'm scared.
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fwiw, the A/Y Mahomes: 8.3 Allen: 7.8 Rodgers: 8.2 Gabbert: 7.3 Locker: 6.7 Clausen: 7.3
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Ironically enough, I edited the post you quoted so that it no longer said... "To go ahead and get ahead of the dudes that like to wear diapers at the office: Yes, I know that you don't like Michael Lombardi. Yes, I know that you don't like Matt Rhule. Yes, I know that you miss Cam. Yes, I know that you hate Sam. I'm very proud of you for whatever your one line quip was. Here's pie."
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One day, I'll learn to edit a write-up before posting it and rushing to fix everything within the 10-minute edit window. T_T
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Sam Darnold is not the answer. Anybody with a pair of functioning eyes and critical thinking skills knows this to be the case for the Panthers' QB position... so who is? Is it an upcoming veteran free agent or is it a college kid ready to leap to the next level? Is the answer already on the roster? (Hint: No.) So what makes a player a franchise QB? Arm talent? Accolades and awards? Being a beloved leader of men? With Matt Rhule and company seeming to not know themselves, why not consult with somebody that's been around teams that have successfully found a franchise QB: Michael Lombardi (who's son, Matt, is our current assistant QBs coach). He's been involved with scouting football since 1981 when he was a recruiting coordinator for UNLV and was a scout for the San Francisco 49ers' 1984 Super Bowl. Years upon years later, and he's the assistant to the coaching staff for the New England Patriots during their 2014 run with long-time friend and coworker Bill Belichick. In his book, Gridiron Genius: A Master Class in Building Teams and Winning at the Highest Level, Lombardi lists "7 QB Qualities" that he leans on after watching the league for 30 years and assessing that, "Very few people can coach the quarterback, and even fewer can evaluate them." 1. A Winning Way It's worth noting here that Lombardi specifically cites yards per attempt, not air yards per attempt. A decision to hit an open man in space underneath that can gain several yards after the catch is a better decision than trying to get it to the guy a yard or two further that isn't going to go anywhere. With that in mind, let's take a look at three recent QBs for the Panthers. Cam Newton, during his first two seasons with Rod Chudzinski as his OC, averaged 7.9 Y/A. After Mike Shula took over, the only time Cam hit close to that average was in 2015 when he matched his rookie Y/A with 7.8. His career Y/A in Carolina is 7.2, but we all know that Cam had a cannon and during his first two seasons the team was taking full advantage of it. The moment that Shula took over as play caller, everything shortened, taking Cam from his 7.9 Y/A under Chud to 7.0 Y/A under Shula. We also very well know about Cam's prolific college career and his ability to win in the NFL. Teddy Bridgewater, despite popular belief, actually has the higher career Y/A out of all 3 QBs with 7.3 Y/A. In fact, his one year in Carolina netted his highest career average with 7.6 Y/A. To put this in perspective, the last time the Panthers saw anything remotely close to that was in 2015 when Cam somehow went off for 7.8 Y/A in a Mike Shula offense. Teddy also had the 23 wins that Parcells wanted with a 12-1 2013, 11-2 2012, and 7-6 2011. Finally, Sam Darnold. While he didn't get to that 23 win mark, he was close (21-6). His 8.5 Y/A seems solid, but it's still 3rd behind Teddy's 8.6 and Cam's 10.9 when they were in college. During his time with the Jets, Darnold's Y/A was 6.6. His one year in Carolina? 6.2. Sam + Teddy were not the answer (Cam is no longer the answer either). However, looking at the 23W + Y/A metrics, we can see a few different things emerge. In his book, Lombardi uses Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson as examples due to Trubisky being a "one year wonder." He pointed out how against top-25 teams Trubisky's Y/A dropped from 8.3 to 6.2. When he was playing ahead, his Y/A jumped to 9.1 vs. 7.2 when he was playing from behind. Deshaun averaged 7.7 Y/A when ahead, 9.4 when down. Watson won 32 games in college compared to Trubisky's 8. Using this model, let's apply it now towards the top QB prospects in this year's draft. We'll take a look at their wins as a starter (keeping in mind the COVID-shortened seasons, I'd argue that lowering the bar to 20 wins is reasonable. While this information isn't enough to come to any sort of accurate conclusion, it's an early look that might be able to guide us going forward. Wins 1. Desmond Ridder: 44 wins 2. Kenny Pickett: 32 wins 3. Sam Howell: 20 wins 3. Carson Strong: 20 wins 5. Matt Corral: 18 wins 6. Malik Willis: 17 wins Y/A 1. Sam Howell: 9.2 Y/A [8.6 (2019), 10.3 (2020), 8.8 (2021)] 2. Matt Corral: 9.1 Y/A [10.9 (2018), 7.7 (2019), 10.2 (2020), 9.2 (2021)] 3. Malik Willis: 8.5 Y/A [8.5 (2020), 8.4 (2021)] 4. Desmond Ridder: 7.9 Y/A [7.9 (2018), 6.7 (2019), 8.2 (2020), 8.6 (2021)] 5. Carson Strong: 7.5 Y/A [6.2 (2019), 8.1 (2020), 8.0 (2021)] 6. Kenny Pickett: 7.3 Y/A [7.7 (2017), 6.4 (2018), 6.6 (2019), 7.3 (2020), 8.7 (2021)] 2. A Thick Skin Cam overcame adversity in college after the laptop incident, going to JUCO, and then culminating in a season that resulted in a national title, Heisman, and #1 overall draft status. While he was routinely criticized for how he handled losses, the only people that would call Cam soft are talking heads. We witnessed all we needed to from injuries, car accidents, etc. to know that couldn't be further from the truth. Teddy, on the other hand, I wouldn't necessarily say has "thick skin" as much as he does "scarred skin." He lets mistakes and criticisms slide off and has fought back from a devastating injury that most folks don't come back from. However, that injury I think scarred him in a way that has him looking to play safe even when he needs to gamble. Where Cam gambled and won, Teddy seems to be the kind of guy that gambled and is just grateful he still has his shoes when he timidly puts a chip each on evens, odds, black, and red. Do we really need to discuss Sam? He was coddled during the preseason. Where some people might see him having thick skin under duress, I see him dissociating. When looking at the current prospects, Carson Strong might be worth mentioning due to the way he's handled injuries. I'm not aware of the hardships that any of the other individuals had to endure, but I'm sure the media trauma porn machine will be in full effect here soon to catch us all up. 3. Work Ethic Does Sam Darnold love football, or is he just playing it? I'd lean towards the latter, as much has been made by people close to Sam (like Bills' Josh Allen) in regards to his natural athleticism and ability to immediately pick something up. I don't think Cam nor Teddy can be questioned. Cam regularly took responsibility for things that had nothing to do with him and made it a point to improve. Teddy wanted the team to work smarter and harder, given his comments regarding the Panthers' practices lacking any focus on 2min/redzone. The major takeaway from this particular attribute from Lombardi was that you can't teach work ethic. He cites the infamous JaMarcus Russell & Johnny Manziel, of course, but also cites Brett Favre's time with the Falcons. Favre was such a lush that Falcons' coach Jerry Glanville drove around town asking bartenders not to serve Favre. Eventually, the QB was traded to Green Bay and figured himself out. That's an extreme rarity. Malik Willis turned heads at Liberty when he arrived there, inspiring his teammates with how hard he worked and uplifted those around him. Following their win over FIU where Malik was hurt, WR DJ Stubbs said afterwards, "Since he stepped foot on campus, he's taken us under his wing, just wanted to be the best he can be, so that he pushes us to be the best we can be, for him. Today, I just showed that wherever you put the ball... whatever you need from me, I can make it happen for you." As you're probably already noticing, a lot of these QB Attributes overlap. Work ethic and leadership go hand in hand. Innate Ability and A Winning Way are most certainly linked. Etc etc. 4. Football Smarts When reading this section I started to ask myself, "How can football smarts be measured?" I wanted to keep it simple, so I went with what I felt might be an obvious indicator of decision making: TD-INT ratio. 1. Sam Howell: 92:23 (4:1) 2. Carson Strong: 74:19 3. Desmond Ridder: 87:28 4. Malik Willis: 48:18 (8:3) 5. Kenny Pickett: 81:32 6. Matt Corral: 57:23 Take that for what you will. 5. Innate Ability This section describes Sam Darnold to the letter. He played freshman baseball, and then started playing football + basketball during his sophomore year (in which he excelled at basketball, being awards the South Coast League MVP twice) as well as being named to the all-CIF team. On the football field, Darnold was a WR and a LB and didn't play QB until after the starter was hurt. He missed most of his junior year with a foot injury and was rated as a four-star recruit as the 8th best dual-threat QB + 179th best player overall. Due to the lack of tape, his coaches sent videos of his basketball games to football coaches. We regularly see Darnold hold on to the ball and have to make a play when it breaks down because he himself cannot process a defense. He doesn't have that innate ability. We saw Cam regularly do it. Teddy didn't have that innate ability either, and we saw that rear it's head when the team went 0-8 in one score games during his season at the helm. I wish that I had some immediately available metrics on the current QB class to see if we can measure this (maybe looking at QBR in big games? 4th quarter winning drives?), and nothing in the current class' profiles shows anything that we can really glean from at a quick glance. If anything, Desmond Ridder running away with the win column just might be a testament to his innate ability? 6. Carriage I think that Randy Marsh speaks for all of us here in regards to that exception: 7. Leadership Pretty sure having your WR scream at you to "Tighten the fug up!" on the sidelines and then giving a Cutler stare is not a sign of leadership. We've seen the difference in the Panthers' players when Cam steered the team vs. Sam, even if it was to similar results. This is something that cannot be talked up enough, but also something that Panthers fans have a very real concern with given what Matt Rhule has done with the position and players that are outspoken leaders. While his numbers aren't doing him any favours, Matt Corral does have that leadership quality as evidenced in this article. Matt Corral got into a fight with Wayne Gretzsky's son in high school and transferred because he said it was a bunch of, "rich kids," that wouldn't have to, "work a day in their lives." Later, at Ole Miss, During the height of the protests following the murder of George Floyd by police, Corral's teammate put him on the spot and asked him what he thought about what was going on. They specifically pointed out that Corral was the QB, and this player being a defender knowing that it the QB is more-or-less the frontman for the team wanted to know how they would be represented. The way Corral responded afterwards won him the love and backing of those teammates. Throughout his book, Michael Lombardi emphasizes the totality of a football team. He points out how all three phases of the game are equally important, how great players can mask deficiencies but those deficiencies still exist and can be exploited, how a QB's success is directly tied to his fit within the system and the pieces placed around him, etc. Above all else though, it's a crapshoot. We've got some young prospects that we can look at to be potential franchise QBs (along with some top flight OL prospects!). Which of them stand out to you as fulfilling these attributes that Lombardi has listed? Are there any possible free agents that you'd be interested in kicking the tires on? How would you compare those currently known commodities to the unknown ones when they were early in their careers as well? Are there any attributes that you specifically look for that might not have been mentioned/covered?
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Exactly where I'm at with him tbh. He'd a be top tier OL6.
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I had forgotten how awful the 2013 draft was until I went back and checked. 1. KC - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 2. JAX - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M 3. MIA - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon 4. PHI - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma 5. DET - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU 6. CLE - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU 7. ARI - Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC 8. STL - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 9. NYJ - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama 10. TEN - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama 11. SD - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama 12. OAK - DJ Hayden, CB, Houston 13. NYJ - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Mizzou 14. CAR - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah 15. NO - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas 16. BUF - EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State 17. PIT - Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia 18. SF - Eric Reid, S, LSU 19. NYG - Justin Pugh, OL, Syracuse 20. CHI - Kyle Long, OG, Oregon 21. CIN - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame 22. ATL - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington 23. MIN - Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida 24. IND - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State 25. MIN - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 26. GB - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA 27. HOU - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson 28. DEN - Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC 29. MIN - Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Tennessee 30. STL - Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia 31. DAL - Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin 32. BAL - Matt Elam, S, Florida That top half especially is horrendous. Thank goodness that Star fell.
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When that's compounded with what the team already gave up trying to appease Tepper by tying up $19M in a guy that the team gave away a 2nd, 4th, and a 6th for... oof. That's a hefty price tag to keep swinging.
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I'm at the very least expecting better play calling and adaptation to talent than what we had with Brady. I really liked some of Joe's design concepts (especially on passing plays), but he has a lot to learn when it comes to calling a game. I'm also expecting a season similar to Rhule's first where we kept games close but couldn't win them in the end. That's going to likely frustrate me even more than the L's the team will take.
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Would Andrew Norwell be interested in coming back?
Icege replied to hepcat's topic in Carolina Panthers
I hate everything about the team rolling with Elflein at center, but it might end up being the best move long term if we're able to pick up a franchise LT with the first round selection. The free agent market for guards is going to be DEEP this year. Current prospective free agent guards per Spotrac (pls sign Kyle Long). There are also some potential cap casualties out there. The Bucs can save $10M if they make Ali Marpet a post-6/1 move. The Titans will save $10.5M moving on from Roger Saffold. New England can save over $7M cutting Shaq Mason and the Cardinals $9M with Justin Pugh. Erek Flowers has 0 dead cap attached to him, freeing up $10M for Washington. Gabe Jackson is another potential post-6/1 target. Greg Van Roten and Connor McGovern could also be options if they're cut. Or just start Deonte Brown, of course. -
Terrifying that the owner might be as well.
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Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be the same Patrick Mahomes that we saw last night if he had been drafted by the Giants rather than Andy Reid. Josh Allen wouldn't be the same Josh Allen that we saw last night if he hadn't gone to Buffalo and Sean McDermott. Yes, every team needs a franchise QB. They also need a complete head coach, an intelligent GM, an effective + ever-evolving system/scheme, a competent OL, and a defense that can create turnovers. It won't matter who the QB for the Panthers is unless the team can create an environment in which a QB can be successful. The current state of the franchise, with Matt Rhule leading the way, does not look to be it. This next season is about as much of a throw away as John Fox's lame duck year. Rhule is going to be forced to carry this mess through his third season and when the wheels fall off the biggest question will likely be, "Does Fitterer stay or go as well?"
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Compared to last weekend, this most recent round was an instant classic.
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No. Deshaun cannot be deposed before Feb. 22, 2002. Only a Huddler would think that trading the future for somebody that might not have one is the best way to fix this mess.
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What’s your pitch to Aaron Rodgers to come to Carolina
Icege replied to Leotiger's topic in Carolina Panthers
Rodgers in Carolina? We have just as much of a shot as he does -
Have you ever hated this team more than right now?
Icege replied to hepcat's topic in Carolina Panthers
I made it through a lame duck John Fox with Jimmy Clausen, Keith Null, and Brian St Pierre at QB This is nothing. -
There are some fairly consistent issues that Sam has even when we were going 3-0. He tends to hang on to the ball and gets mixed up fairly easily by pre-snap disguises by the defense. He's got an NFL arm and athletic ability but in regards to being a leader, having football smarts, and soft mentality he's lacking. Those aren't things that can be fixed overnight.
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The more that I think on this, the more that I like it because it means we will be going into the 2023 season with a brand new coaching staff and over $150M in cap space?