Icege

Now you've got additional data to help you narrow that window of expectation!

Mason Graham -> Tyler Warren -> Jalon Walker if unable to trade down

After setting franchise and league records with their incompet run defense last season, Dan Morgan and Brandt Tilis had their work cut out for them this offseason. Losing key contributors like Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson at the beginning of the season did not help, and neither did the lack of a pass rush when teams did decide to throw the ball. So what did the FO decide to do? Throw bodies at the problem until it solves itself! Not just any bodies though... it's important to make sure that the ingredients they're cooking with this go around are better than the ones they had before. Looking at the lineup the team ended with and at the one they're projected to start with gives us fans more than a few reasons to be optimistic about the quality of play increasing. Let's start with the front seven. The team's final starting DL was Robinson/Tuttle/Ray with Johnson getting most of the rotational snaps at EDGE. As we can see below... things were not good for our heroes. Shy Tuttle has been panned for his performance while A'Shawn Robinson was supposed to be the guy that rotated in on run downs up, but man oh man was LaBryan Ray atrocious. DJ Johnson is another player that's gotten a lot of flak on the Huddle, but in his third season he didn't exactly break out. DJ was always seen as being strong enough to play because of his ability to set the edge, but he has no tricks in his pass rush arsenal. Robinson and Johnson had the highest run defense grade of the bunch, tying for 100th in their respective position groups. There was nobody worse than LaBryan Ray at rushing the passer last season according to PFF... and Shy Tuttle seemed to almost make an effort to be as bad. Compare this to what the Panthers are bringing in and... well... it takes a special kind of pessimist to still say with no uncertainty that the defense hasn't improved. The return of Derrick Brown (* because those are his 2023 grades when he played the full season) alone is a massive upgrade. I don't think I have to convince too many of y'all that his grades/rank compared to A'Shawn are night and day, but to be fair to A'Shawn he was supposed to be the guy that rotated in for run downs (not the starter). The Tuttle -> Brown III upgrade is massive: 198th in pass rush to 140th (and Brown III was often subbed out on passing downs!) and 205th to 27th in run defense. The Panthers went from a quick, undersized nose to a space eater that's going to occupy two blockers. Much ado has been made about Tershawn Wharton's contract... but compare his performance to that of LaBryan Ray and the upgrade is undeniable: they're going from a guy that at BEST was 209th out of 219 other defensive linemen, and at worst he was 219th of 219. Tershawn Wharton, on the other hand, while posting a poor run defense grade, is a massive improvement when it comes to rushing the passer. The team went from the worst graded pass rushing DL to the 38th best. I'm not too worried about his run defense grade considering that Wharton and Robinson are going to likely be rotating with each other. Finally, our boy DJ Johnson... oh DJ... The one thing you were alright at the Panthers went out and got somebody even better. DJ Johnson and Pat Jones II might have similar pass rush grades, but Jones II is really good at stopping the run. He's what they were hoping DJ Johnson could be by now. While Jones II doesn't have the most impressive numbers, he's got an important set of stats when compared to Johnson: 7 sacks, 13 hurries, 4 QB hits, 24 pressures. Meanwhile, DJ Johnson posted a stat line of 1 sack, 0 hurries, 0 QB hits, and 1 pressure. That. is. terrible. So the team is clearly bringing in upgrades along the front seven to get the run defense back on track, but was that all? They also went out and picked up a new starting SS in Tre'von Moehrig to replace Jordan Fuller and back-up LB/ST guy Christian Rozeboom to fill the same role that Chandler Wooten play. So how did these guys' PFF grades/ranking compare to one another? Rozeboom's pass rush grade was slightly lower than Wooten's, but that's it. That's the only signing that has a lower grade than the previous guy, but he's also got significantly better run defense and especially in coverage. Wooten was considered bottom three overall out of all LBs, so there isn't many other options worse than him. There's also been some grumblings about Moehrig's coverage grade, but it's important to also point out that it was better than Jordan Fuller's (who is now the starter in Atlanta). The one thing Fuller was somewhat successful at (run defense), Moehrig is elite at. Moehrig is also a much better pass rusher than Fuller is as well, and with the way Evero likes to disguise blitzes using safeties and linebackers that's going to help Jaycee and Mike J on the back end. The entire DL has been upgraded with a top-10 DT returning to the lineup. The EDGE room got a little better and is likely going to see a draft pick added to their ranks as well. One of the safety positions (which Evero's defense depends heavily on) got a massive upgrade. Hell, they even went so far as to try and upgrade the ST guy that plays back-up LB. If this doesn't at least look like an average NFL defense then there isn't much left to defend Evero... but man is it really hard to believe it won't be better just looking at the stat sheets.

I'm thinking they leave Brown III on the field because he was vocal about leaving the Rams due to not getting opportunities to pass rush. Robinson/Wharton I think is the run/pass down rotation with DB/BB3 being the anchor guys.

I really liked how they pointed out that he wins his one-on-ones. He's going from playing next to Chris Jones to playing next to Derrick Brown, so he's still going to get singled.

I think Harmon might just be the best 3-tech in this class

I know that some folks are probably not interested in anything they have to say after the recent mock collab with NFLStockExchange where they traded a ton of assets to move up to #3 and select Abdul Carter, but for those looking for any and all type of draft content, here's their lists Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama Kevin Winston Jr, S, Penn State Malaki Starks, S, Georgia Omarr Norman-Lott, DT, Tennessee Alfred Collins, DT, Texas Josaiah Stewart, EDGE, Michigan Cobee Bryant, CB, Kansas Jahdae Baron, CB, Texas Shaun Dolac, LB, Buffalo Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon Honorable Mentions (EJ) Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss (EJ) Andrew Mukuba, S, Texas (EJ) Bradyn Swinson, EDGE, LSU (EJ) Jonas Sanker, S, Virginia (EJ) Elijah Williams, DT, Morgan State (Brett) JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio St (Brett) Chris Paul Jr, LB, Ole Miss (Brett) Billy Bowman Jr, S, Oklahoma (Brett) JJ Pegues, DT, Ole Miss (Brett) Collin Oliver, EDGE, Oklahoma State I love the Shaun Dolac shout out. He has done nothing but produce numbers at Buffalo that I've followed for the last couple of seasons.

Austin Mock's 2024 projection model was... interesting. 1. SF 2. KC 3. BAL 4. BUF 5. PHI 6. DET 7. DAL 8. MIA 9. NYJ 10. CIN 11. HOU 12. ATL 13. LAR 14. CLE 15. GB 16. LAC 17. SEA 18. JAX 19. LV 20. NE 21. TB 22. PIT 23. MIN 24. NO 25. CHI 26. IND 27. TEN 28. DEN 29. ARI 30. NYG 31. CAR 32. WAS

I had originally seen that on Reddit (hence "allegedly" since I hadn't gotten a chance to vet it), but it looks like the Virginia accusation was the second one. He was first accused in high school.

Draft prospect Mike Green denies sexual assault allegations, explains transfer from Virginia tldr; was accused of sexual assault @ Virginia. There was allegedly another accusation while at Marshall which was what really gave teams pause. Dude is a beast and was one of my favorite prospects during the season, but I'm incredibly wary of any player with SA accusations. The fact that he was accused again while at Marshall and his answer(s) apparently did not satisfy teams makes me even more cautious.

gimme that

To be fair, both of those franchises have been much more stable for much longer than Carolina. Also, Nacua was picked during a draft where the Rams had 14 (!!) picks. Nacua himself was the final pick of the 5th-round after they had already selected three other players in the 5th. Was one of those situations where they bought enough tickets to get lucky imo.

https://www.panthers.com/news/david-moore-ranching-resign-with-panthers-wide-receiver-free-agent Didn't know he was a cattle rancher. That was fun to find out.

I keep hearing folks kick around the narrative that the Panthers are somehow worse than everybody else on day three and it got me wondering if that's true or not. To save myself a little time, I'm going to use data for the 5th-round of the draft and go back as far as 2005 so that we have a 20yr sample size. Depending on the article and what's classified as a "hit," I've seen from as low as 5% if they're a hit because they became a starter and as high as 15% if it meant that they were a rotational player that made meaningful contributions. The Panthers have made 23 selections since 2005 in the 5th-round. This would mean that the Panthers would need to have drafted just one starter (5% of 23 == 1.15) and/or three rotational guys (15% of 23 == 3.45). Starters drafted in the 5th: Geoff Hangartner, Jeff King, Josh Norman, Jermaine Carter (4) Back-ups/ST drafted in the 5th: Dante Rosario, David Mayo, Corn Elder (3) Back-up/ST in CAR, started elsewhere: Gary Barnidge, AJ Klein (4) Carter started all of 2021, and technically David Mayo got some starts his first year with the Giants. All of that said, even if we classify a hit strictly as a starter the team is above average (even if we don't count Carter, Barnidge, and Klein). The last time the team drafted somebody in the 5th that was a meaningful contributor was 2018 with Jermaine Carter. Chau Smith-Wade is looking to at least qualify as a back-up/ST guy at this point with potential to still develop into a starter. tldr; Panthers are above average at drafting in the 5th-round based on the numbers whether it's finding a starter or a guy that contributes meaningfully to the team, but have not landed a hit since 2018.

Nick Scott, to me, is coming back because the team is moving on from Sam Franklin Jr. Both are 29yr old with Nick being a 7th rounder out of Penn State and Sam being a UDFA out of Temple. Both play ST. Both are back-up safeties that can start for a game or two if needed (but should not be relied on for the entirety of the season as a defensive starter). I think the big thing separating the two is that Nick's deal this season is quite literally almost half of what Sam's 1yr deal was last season ($1,292,500 vs. $2,575,000). Wouldn't be surprised to see him and Chisena lined up as the gunners.