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Everything posted by Seltzer
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Exactly. The draft capital is absolutely nothing for a player of Lamar's caliber. The contract demands, especially the guaranteed part, should give anyone pause. That being said, I'm still of the opinion that trading for Lamar is no more risky than drafting Young, Stroud, or Richardson. I trust the current coaching staff to make the right call- I'm glad I don't have to make it. And I will say this, after screwing around with Deshaun Watson and not resigning Hasson Reddick or Stephon Gilmore, they need to make a decision in whatever direction so that FA is not impacted by this.
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Don't know if it will happen. But if with we willing to go all-in on Air Thruster, this is no logical reason we don't vet this out. I wasn't a believer in Lamar for several years. But he earned his MVP, and is a much better passer than a lot of people want to give him credit for. This offensive line with Lamar would strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators like we haven't seen since in over 5 seasons when Cam was still in his prime
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Who are you going to bring in to clean up that inevitable mess, though? The Saints cap is not going to be in any better shape 2 years from now than it is today. That's the thing I can't comprehend. Payton left b/c he saw the writing on the wall, but then somehow the Loomis/Allen braintrust convinced Gayle Benson that doubling down (even more) was the way to go. The Saints 2 years from now, unless something massively unforeseen happens, will be in the worst shape of any franchise in the league. Paper bag bad again. This is a good day as a Panthers fan. I had just gotten use to the Saints being a competent franchise. Glad to be returning to the normal equilibrium of the Saints being a poverty franchise again.
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This 100%. Again, it's astounding to me that Gayle Benson doesn't have someone independent of Saints management advising her on this. It's one thing to basically turn over the reins to Sean Payton when you have a first ballot hall of famer in Brees and let them run things unimpeded (although you can easily make the case the Saints would have been better to have had some more checks and balances on the personnel side). But even Sean knew the gig was up. Doubling down (and at an even higher level these past 2 years) is financial malfeasance rarely seen by a professional organization. Mickey Loomis was not a good GM before Brees/Payton, and he certainly isn't one now. But being a patsy to Sean Payton while you have Brees is one thing. Allowing that same dynamic with a retread like Dennis Allen is a recipe for setting your franchise back half a decade. Even someone who made as many questionable personnel decisions as Marty Hurney must be alarmed at this level of ineptitude. This is the type of move that really will lead Aints fans back to understanding that the Payton/Brees era was the aberration. This is who their franchise truly is. Incompetence personified. They may even want to replace the paper bags with plastic this time to escape this misery. I hope Gayle Benson and Mickey Loomis run this team the rest of my life.
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My point wasn't to imply that they were doing anything illegal or unethical, just that to Saints fans and outside observers they may seem like geniuses now, but the underlying math simply doesn't support that position over the long term. In business, after exhausting all legal accounting tricks, there is a temptation to move onto something illegal to continue the charade and keep the house of cards from collapsing. There is obviously more transparency with NFL contracts, so they can't do something illegal per se without people knowing about it. However, the cracks in this approach have already been showing. The Saints had injuries this year and had very little depth to deal with it. That is already a direct reflection of their cap management. They are rapidly approaching a scenario where their entire team will consist of a few high-priced players making a lot of money, draft picks (controller salaries), UDFA's and league-minimum veterans, and an ungodly amount of dead money for players not on their team (and some who haven't been on the team for years). Any GM who thinks that is a good long-term strategy, especially now with a 17-game season (and potentially an 18-game season) is not fit to be in that position. Depth matters more now than ever before, and they are employing a strategy that simply doesn't value depth. My biggest point is this, there are a litany of reasons the other 31 teams in the league don't follow this strategy unless they are nearing the end of a SB window. The Saints are not geniuses for bucking this trend. They are selling their fanbase a house of cards that is getting ready to collapse and take them years to recover from.
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Enron's finances looked great until they didn't. Everyone thought Bernie Madoff was a genius until he wasn't. You can navigate a lot of financial situations in this world with accounting tricks, but at some point math is still math. You can't make 2+2 not equal 4 forever. Go to overthecap and actually dig into the numbers. There are no easy fixes the next few years with the Saints cap. The cap has been kicked to the point I honestly wonder how they will field a 53 man roster in a couple of years if they face even an average amount of injuries and need replacements. Every team in the league could do what the Saints have. They haven't b/c eventually you do have to pay the piper. I'll give credit to Dennis Allen for trying to buy some job security. He was the only one who was willing to clean up Sean Payton's mess, and it will be even harder to find someone to clean up the bigger mess he is going to leave. I really am surprised someone from the outside is not advising Gayle Benson better. In all of sports, I can't ever remember this level of financial malfeasance being celebrated.
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Please explain to me how this is a good deal? B/c to me, this looks like a move that will set their franchise back 5+ years in the long term. Old defense, zero depth, RB1 facing suspension, no proven receivers beyond Olave... the SB odds being the same pre- and post- Carr tell it all in my opinion. There is zero strategic value to this signing. So I'm sorry, I'm not even remotely seeing this is a good deal for the Saints. There is minimal upside for 2023, and an ungodly amount of downside over the next few years. IMHO, the Panthers (outside of Sean Gilbert), have never made a move this questionable and with this much risk.
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You're right on one level, but dig into the numbers and you'll realize they have reached an unsustainable salary cap level no other team ever has. Even when they were $100M+ over the cap, they had a lot more flexibility in terms of restructures to close the gap and still potentially create cap to sign a big-ticket free agent. The Saints are now in a situation where they will have to restructure every conceivable contract over the next 2-3 years just to be compliant with the cap, not to have any left other or to literally sign any other players. It has already hurt the Saints depth tremendously over the past few years, and it's only going to get much worse b/c the only depth players will be draft picks (controlled salaries) or veteran league minimums. The only conceivable way this even remotely works is for them to draft like 2017 every single year for the next few years. B/c you literally cannot add talent at the open market rates in this scenario. They are already borrowing 3-4 years in the future right now to make this work. Carr was the last big signing they can make over the next 3-4 years (unless they want to borrow from 5+ years down the line). And again, they really may hit the point where they can't field a full team under the salary cap. It will be interesting to see what the NFL does then. No other team is going to be cool with the NFL giving the Saints an exemption, but it could very well be a safety issue given how many players are typically injured combined with literally not having the cap space to sign anyone else. This is not financial wizardry. It is complete financial malfeasance. This is an owner (Gayle Benson) who either doesn't understand the implications of this or like many Saints fans has come to believe the salary cap doesn't apply to them to sign off on this level of mismanagement. Benson should really have someone from the outside advising her on the long-term implications of allowing this continue in the post Payton/Brees era b/c it's absolutely nuts. Sean Payton took one look at the Saints roster and salary cap situation post Brees and decided he didn't want to clean it up. And astoundingly, the mismanagement has only gotten worse since he left. I don't die on many hills, but this is one I'm willing to. There's over a 95% chance in my mind from a risk management perspective that this is an unprecedented debacle for the Saints over the next 5 years.
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This really says it all... Maybe Carr helps the Saints win a perhaps bad division again this year, but it doesn't even more the needle overall. And even Sean Payton would be uncomfortable with this newest level of kicking the can going on... this would be dumb and short-sighted even for those prime Saints teams... this is sheer insanity for a team without a 1st ballot Hall of Famer like Brees
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This is insanity to manage a cap like this for a guy like Carr that has never even won a playoff game. The Saints are structuring things like they signed Mahomes to a loaded roster ready to win a SB. Seriously, they have to restructure everyone else possible over the next 2 years just and have Carr's salary artificially low the first 3 years just to make this work. Then, in the 4th year of this deal (!!) when he may not even be on the roster, will be when the massive cap hits start. I'm sorry, the Panthers have made plenty of bad contract/ salary cap management decisions, but nothing to this level. No Saints fan in the world with a triple digit IQ could honestly look at this situation objectively long-term and think this is a good plan. This is not salary cap wizardry. This is doubling down on Sean Payton's bad decisions (which he bolted over) and making it even worse for the next coach. Dennis Allen may have bought himself some job security over this b/c no coach in their right mind is going to want to clean up this debacle.
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This is unprecedented in terms of a team kicking the salary cap can down the road. Even with all the restructuring/ maneuvering possible, the Saints are basically hemming themselves into a situation where the only players they will be able to afford over the next few years are basically to sign their draft picks (maybe) and league-minimum players. What happens if you are in a situation where you can't afford to get 53 players (I know only 51 count) under the salary cap? Do you simply carry less players? B/c that is a realistic issue if you look at their cap position over the next few years. How does the NFL handle this from both a competitive and safety perspective? I can definitely see the NFL changing the rules regarding how salaries are structured if/when the Saints get in that position. It will be interesting to see over the next few years how they even achieve cap compliance. Regardless of what homer Saints fans want to believe, their cap guy hasn't found some magic formula that no one else knows about. There has just never been a team willing to double down for so many years in a row, especially with a roster that certainly doesn't look capable of actually competing for a championship. Yes, Carr certainly makes the Saints better for next season. But beyond that, I can see no objective take on how this is a good thing for the Saints long-term. Bottom line, if we get the right young QB, we will be in a much, much better position than the Saints for at least the next 5 years (or more) as they dig out of this unprecedented mess. And again, regardless of what Saints fans want to believe, their cap is in an absolute mess. Continuing to kick the can is not smart or innovative. The Falcons and now the Bucs are smart enough to take their medicine now to compete long term. The only positive I can honestly see is that Carr does help their chances to win the NFC South this year. Beyond that, I'll eat my words in in retrospect this doesn't look like yet another massive mistake, and one that will finally cripple the Saints for a while.
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THE ATHLETIC: Potential cap casualties….
Seltzer replied to WarPanthers89's topic in Carolina Panthers
Panthers are in fine shape from a cap perspective. Have 20 of 24 starters under contract and generate plenty of cap via restructures to sign whomever within reason. Atlanta has more cap space but more roster holes to fill. Bucs & Saints are definitely in a more challenging situation. That being said, New Orleans is being talked about as a landing spot for Derek Carr. If they can somehow find cap space (yet again) to make a signing like this, the idea that we are cap-constrained is simply not true -
I think overall Fitterer has done a good job. I really wish we would have resigned Reddick but I don't know what all went into that decision (i.e. having cap space for Watson). The roster is in much better shape than when he took over. Also, outside of Atlanta, our cap situation looks tremendous compared to the Bucs and especially the Saints. No worries there I also think that Fitterer will have a more clearly defined role with Reich (more like a traditional GM) which will be better than under Rhule.
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This is the only correct response. Maybe had we kept Reddick it would be worthy of a conversation, but we didn't, and trading Burns would be perhaps the dumbest possible thing this team could do this off-season. We have plenty of draft picks!! We don't need to trade elite players. We need to continue to add talent, not take it away
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Go on record now before the hire is made Re: Sean Payton
Seltzer replied to GOAT's topic in Carolina Panthers
This old-timer gets it... -
Roman Harper thinks Sean Payton could be our next HC now
Seltzer replied to ncfan's topic in Carolina Panthers
You really can't let the Burns thing go can you?... Like it or not, a top-10 edge rusher is probably the 2nd hardest position to find behind a franchise QB. This isn't Madden or fantasy football. I'm not trying to be mean, but you have posted this ad nauseum and I genuinely don't understand how you don't grasp this. You can draft a serviceable RB in any round (or as a UDFA). Will they be as good as CMC? Probably not, but the overall haul makes complete sense, especially given CMC's salary. That being said, even 3 first rounders is no guarantee for an equivalent trade for an elite edge rusher, especially one under 25. Quality matters manifestly more than quantity with edge rushers (and QB's which is why they are valued as such). We've only drafted 2 in our entire franchise history (Peppers & Burns). The Rams threw out that offer hoping this was a fire sale, but even they probably had little hope we would take that deal. You and I are not smarter than Fitterer when it comes to evaluating players. We're just not. We're not privy to inside information, and we many times have not the slightest idea how players are valued across the league. Calling Fitterer an idiot for not taking that deal when literally no one else across the league advocated for it should tell you something. It really should. Everything with the Panthers isn't sunshine and rainbows, but it isn't doom and gloom, either. Seriously. If it was, Sean Payton would not have the slightest interest in coming here. The Panthers are an attractive destination. Look at any ranking of the openings out there. And I feel one-million percent confident that keeping Burns is in absolutely no way setting this team back. -
Roman Harper thinks Sean Payton could be our next HC now
Seltzer replied to ncfan's topic in Carolina Panthers
Mickey Loomis was a rubber-stamp for Payton after the SB win. Fitterer could work with him, especially given that he worked for Rhule under similar circumstances -
Roman Harper thinks Sean Payton could be our next HC now
Seltzer replied to ncfan's topic in Carolina Panthers
I've been here since the Carolina Growl days, and while some of the posters here (who are typically the most hardcore fans) might not ever be able to get Sean Payton's past, 95+% of the fanbase will forgive all if he wins the division next year. Tepper knows this. You would have to remind most casual fans of what Bounty Gate even was. Most casual fans only know the Saints owned us for the majority of the 15 years Payton was the Saints coach. And for my boys who have just started watching the Panthers over the past 5 years (all losing), they could care less and just want to see the Panthers win. Most fans do. I'm all for standing on principle, but it doesn't matter to Tepper, and it won't matter to the overwhelming majority of fans. Losing a few hardcore fans while bringing back thousands of casual fans is a trade-off an owner would accept every day. Sean Payton will bring excitement, national relevance, national games, and free agent interest. That matters a whole lot to an owner, especially one like Tepper. And he will also bring his a-hole persona, which very well might not work with Tepper long-term. But that's for another day... I had 15 years to develop a visceral hatred for the guy, but I will freely admit after spending 5+ years in the NFL wilderness as a franchise, I am open to anyone who can be a winner. I have been pro-Wilks, but my opinion nor anyone else's here matters to Tepper. And while I have probably hated Sean Payton worse than anyone in the NFL over the past 15 years, he can coach and he would instantly make us the favorites in the NFC South next year. -
You can never have enough pass rushers, but I think the biggest issue is that YGM & Haynes are decent rotational guys but not at a starter level. I think we would be fine at edge rusher (injuries notwithstanding) if we can sign or draft a starting level edge rusher to pair with Burns.
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Of all the unexpected things that happened this year, Chuba establishing himself as a legit RB2 was one I didn't see coming. Obviously, the much-improved offensive line played a part, but Chuba broke a lot of tackles this season he didn't in past seasons. I am guilty of a lot of Chuba slander, but he really did establish he can play in this league and was more than Mrs. Rhule's favorite. All 3 primary RBs (after the CMC trade) played well. I could still see us taking a RB in one of the later rounds, but it is nowhere as big of a need as I thought it would be once we traded CMC. And anything over a 60 PFF grade is not bad, considering 50 is average. The biggest takeaway from the offensive side (outside of QB), is the clear need to upgrade at TE, especially in terms of pass catching. Both Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble are pretty good at run blocking, and they will both be on the team next year, but neither offer much at all in the passing game. And Stephen Sullivan is never going to be that guy IMO
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It does if the sun is going to explode in a billion years too I guess... it makes every season a losing season if you think about it from that perspective as well. As well as anything else. You can follow that rabbit hole all the way down. If you have convinced yourself every ending is going to be miserable you won't be disappointed, either watching the Panthers or in life. But to me personally, this seems like an awfully depressing way to live. But you do you
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We were in the playoff race until last week and this week didn't affect draft positioning. So that makes no sense IMO. We played to win until last week when we had a chance at the playoffs and we won today but it didn't affect where we draft. I don't understand how anyone with a brain would have done anything differently. Was Wilks supposed to try lose every game the minute he took over? Other than just wanting to complain, I don't understand the first thing about this thread
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even better. I read we dropped one spit but the point remains
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We dropped 1 effing spot. Yall can talk about everyone else having a loser mindset but many of the posters here are the epitome of a losing mindset. Absolutely nothing tragic happened today. We are picking 9th. Mahomes went 10th. And the examples go on and on and on... This literally is the epitome of pathetic
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Draft screwed…. Season screwed…. Coaching screwed…. Future screwed
Seltzer replied to TheBigKat's topic in Carolina Panthers
It has gotten so much worse in the past 5 years or so. I think it is a combination of a society that expects instant gratification, think playing fantasy football makes them capable of being a coach/GM, and the underlying mental illness issues that have been plaguing the country brought on and worsened by Covid. This toxic mix compels some to try to drag others into the mental illness they are obviously suffering from. I truly don't understand why they stick around if they are so bothered by everything. I once thought a lot of the straight up sh*tposting was trolling, but the overwhelming prevalence and the absolute need to be heard over social media along with the need to try to drag others into their misery is something new. Mental health is this country is a massive issue, and a lot of these types of posts are both pathetic and in a sad way, a cry for help. Seriously, if a game is causing you the kind of mental anguish to post something like this, you need professional help, and I genuinely hope you seek it out. You sound suicidal over what is ultimately a game. Take a day, reread this, and really think about why you felt the need to broadcast this. Because I personally think it's way more about mental health and an inability to cope than it is about the Panthers losing a football game b/c full stop this sounds unhinged.