theinstrumental

That’s almost precisely equal on the more modern charts, btw. Like I said in the Steelers trade thread, I don’t think it’ll happen, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Can’t believe everyone just spent three months talking about how abnormally flat this draft was, and then got pissy when we considered trading back for less than normal. Gotta play the hand you’re dealt. Bad top of the draft, bad offers. Still gotta do what’s best for a roster that has a lot of holes.

This is pretty awesome.

Omarion Hampton is a very good running back prospect, but Ashton Jeanty completely breaks the scale compared to the rest of the class. It is hard, as someone with no dog in this fight, to believe that all the Carolina fans are simply being perfectly objective and reasonable when they try to equate Hampton to the dude who just had an all-time great season.

I'm not into Fannin at all, but the rest looks fine. In the fifth, they had Dont'e Thornton and Cam Jackson going with the picks right after ours. I'd prefer both to Korie Black/Jordan James. I know we've met with Cam Jackson a couple times.

All three of those guys are absolute freak athletes. Jason Witten has the worst weight-adjusted speed out of any of them, and he still beat out 88% of all tight end prospects. Kelce: 90th percentile speed score. Olsen: 99th. It's always possible to find a few exceptions, but it's very rare for a tight end to be productive without insane athleticism. For that reason alone, I'd be pretty annoyed with selecting Warren at 8. You'd be betting on a huge historical outlier.

To put the question simply: Would you be happy with a Steelers trade that doesn't bring back their first-round pick next year? A potential trade between us and Pittsburgh is interesting because depending on which draft value chart you use, Pittsburgh has two totally natural trades available to them, but they're very different. The Jimmy Johnson chart says the difference between us at 8 and them at 21 is 600 points, or almost exactly the value of the last pick in the 1st round. That falls in line with how teams tend to discount future picks. 8 for 21 and next year's Pitt 1st is almost exactly equal. More modern charts (Chase Stuart, Fitz) are much flatter, and 8 for 21 and 83, Pittsburgh's next pick this year, are basically equal. Now, the second one obviously won't actually happen--the Lions had to include pick 73 just to move from 29 to 24 last year, and Pittsburgh would clearly be making a much bigger jump. But given the flatness of this draft and the lack of blue-chip players at the top, would you accept some mix of 21, 83, and next year's non-first-rounders from Pittsburgh, or would you want Dan Morgan barred from every touching the draft again for accepting anything less than next year's first?

That’s fine, just don’t make blanket statements about positional value, then.

1. QB 2. RT 3. WR 4. TE 5. WR So, uh, four of the top-five are pass-catchers or the guy throwing them the ball. I don’t think you’re making the point that you think you’re making.

The Bengals made the Super Bowl? The Eagles made the Super Bowl before Saquon, but only after AJ Brown and DaVonta Smith? Am I taking crazy pills? Guys, I get that the trenches matter, but you can’t act like it’s the only thing that matters. The NFL clearly thinks that receiver is a premium position, including, yes, the team that won the Super Bowl.

The NFL tells everyone exactly how much they value every position when they hand out free agent contracts. Receivers are making $35M a year, it’s a premium position.

Agreed, I think Membou and Campbell being the top two tackles gives us the best hope for someone to trade up. San Francisco could be another option. I also hope that T-Mac stays in a tier of his own at WR and we could try to find a receiver-needy team who'd pay a little for the certainty that they'd get him.

Everybody’s been screaming for a trade-down all off-season. If they can an offer this way, they should take it

Thanks for the great post! Can you say why you prefer Brinson to Stackhouse? Same team, same-ish position, but Stackhouse started and got more of the playing time over the nose on those teams.

Not by much. Spotrac has his deal at $985K—the rookie minimum is $885K. Now that draft pick can be used at a more expensive position.