Stingray3030

I would like to go on record that a few co-workers and I met with him a few times over the last 9 months and planted this seed. Nice to see that it may have worked - he would be a nice, inexpensive AT replacement eventually.

We signed Dan Chisena - we are set at WR now

Here is my order in terms of positions of need going forward: OLB/EDGE, S, RB, WR, DT, LB, CB, TE I have no problem calling Tremble or Sanders TE1 - mid, but both were TE1 caliber. I also have more faith in the development of our WR's than many here, but still have no issue putting it higher need. I very much don't consider Clowney a starting OLB anymore - and he proved it last year. His numbers and his pay are on par with Jones - so same same. We desperately need to find starters at OLB and S - our last 2 starting openings. I expect our first 2 picks to be some combination of OLB and S - but I could see us taking BPA for DT. I don't think WR or TE in the first round is the best idea (especially WR this year given the prospects). If we are taking a WR I would rather see us trade back into RD1 for Burden or Tet since we have so much draft capitol. RB in the 3rd round is also very tempting to me....Judkins, Henderson, Giddens, Skattebo - love em all in the 3rd. I don't see any downside drafting a RB there. If he's great, great - we can always trade a guy if we have too many in a year. And if he sucks we are good too cause RB's are always available in FA and are fairly cheap these days...it is just a backup at this point.

6'4", 26yr old, 7 sacks last year in a rotational role.....I'm am very good with this.

I love the Idea of getting a top 10 WR, but honestly do you guys see DK as that? In his 6 years in the NFL he ranks on average 21st in yards, 24th in Y/R, and 12th in TDs. I am seriously asking cause I never viewed him as being a top 10 WR so I certainly wouldn't wanna make the deal Pit just made. I know we are desperate for a #1 WR but this isn't the move.

Spotrac reporting it is a 4-year, $132M deal - $33M per year making him the 3rd highest paid WR. Big time overpay IMO.

That would be 22%, not half - there are 2 safeties. 14 make more than $10M a year which is only 14 out of 64. Icege posted a screenshot. But I think you are right - the market for a top 25-yr old safety is $15-20M a year. My question is more "is he really a top 5 safety?" He had a great year, PFF ranked him 6th as a safety last year, but is that enough to pay him top 3 money? Not sure I could justify more than $15M....and certainly not a high % of guaranteed money.

Yeah I just saw this - that is insane.

First off let me clearly state what I said so you understand my response. I said we are 3 players away from cutting our scoring given up by 8 points. That means I believe we are 3 players away from being 18th in the league in scoring given up. That isn't amazing, but enough to get to the playoffs. A second statement was that I am assuming they are above average - that they will be very good. You are taking that to mean Day 1 starters which is not what I said. If we draft 3 guys who are above average - meaning above average rookies - then we should easily shave off those points. Our defense last year was filled with 5-8 practice squad level talents nearly every game. You saw the huge difference when DJ Wonnum came back - night and day - and that was 1 guy! All of a sudden Clowney and Jewell started opening up and making plays because the defense had another concern and couldn't cover with doubles. 3 above average rookies will be added to a top 3 DL in Derrick Brown. They will also be added to 1-2 high end FA's on the defensive side of the ball. So yeah I believe we are 3 above average rookies away from the Playoffs, which is only 5 more wins than we had with the worst defense in NFL history. This also includes Legette, Coker, Sanders, and Wallace with 1 full year's experience under their belts. And by the way last draft there were 40 players in the first 2 rounds who saw at least 10 starts their rookie year (making a few assumptions for injuries). The 4 guys I mentioned were all starters the 2nd half of the year, so we had 4 above average rookies in a single draft. It isn't unrealistic - and we don't need Day 1 starters to make that much impact when we were so incredibly bad last year. That is my point. Last year was hands down the best offseason this franchise has ever seen - you will see the benefit of that this year if we get what I stated above as assumptions which isn't unrealistic.

Perfect example - I can get this on a regular on multiple simulators (take them for what they are worth of course). If this was the first 4 picks for us I am more than thrilled:

Agree - that is what I think they are doing.

Agreed - I think not tendering Blackshear is a possible sign that we will try and get a RB. I realize we could still resign him, but with so many picks and such depth at the RB position I think we will take a shot. Getting a quality starter in round 3 or even 4 is not that hard most years. There are about 4 guys currently expected to be late 2nd - early 4th that I would not mind getting picked.

I could definitely see someone wanting to move up from 12-20 to our spot for some of these guys. That isn't a huge move for some of them. Guys like Warren, Burden, TMac, Pearce, Starks, Jeanty, Green, Dart all could be luring a trade. I'm not saying I would do it, but it has happened plenty of times before to justify the possibility.

That's actually not necessary though - that is exactly my point. I'm not assuming they are great - just above average. If we go after a top WR or TE we will see a minor/decent upgrade to our WAR. But our defensive deficiencies are so bad that if we draft 3 defenders in the top 54 and they are just very good we will see a very significant improvement in our WAR. Improving our offense will get us 2-3 more points per game, improving the defense saves us 8-10 a game. The opportunity is that different. Scoring 30 points a game doesn't matter when your defense gives up 31/game. Detroit was the only team in the NFL who average more than 31/game on offense. We aren't 2-3 players away from that on our offense. We are easily 3 players away from 23/game given up which would take us from last in the league to just below average.

100% agree - this is why I have been so adamant about it. Looking at pick value charts and doing probably 100 mock draft simulations on 4 different sites I believe it is a very reasonable possibility.

BPA is not a reasonable approach on its own. BPA of your top 5 needs is much more realistic. IF an elite prospect is there at #8 that fits BPA of our top 5 needs (EDGE, DL, S, CB, LB or TE) then I am all for staying - otherwise trade back to the teens. Looking at picks values it is absolutely realistic to trade down to 12-18 and pick up 40-50 in compensation. You do that and walk out of the first 2 rounds with an EDGE, DL, and S and we are in the playoffs next year.

If we do not trade back this is my favorite scenario - best for me would be to trade back, still get those 2, and add Xavier Watts. Then I am extremely happy no matter how else the draft goes.

None of that officially means they are guaranteed gone from the team for 2025 - I was obviously using last year's team since that is the last known roster.

So we have Tremble, JT Sanders, and the Thomas - Franks is the 4th but mainly just for Special teams. Sanders is a TE - on paper, on the roster, physically, and on the field. If you are trying to claim because he is a good receiver and not a great blocker he is not a TE then you have not watched very much football, like at all. Cause that is how a ton of TE's come into the league. Literally the #1, most common area for improvement for the TE group every single year - especially the top 5 TE's. And for the 1 millionth time, for the people in the back - drafting BPA is absolutely not a rule that anyone follows. Not a single team. They always factor in multiple things, BPA being one of them but not the most important almost ever. It is an evaluation of need, personal evaluation, pick position/who drafts before your next pick, trade offers, free agents possible. They don't follow it for good reason. Perfect example - Bo Nix. He was not rated anywhere near #12 by just about anyone - including the broncos. But they drafted him because they NEEDED a QB, liked him, and had no 2nd RD pick. They outright said that. Do you think they regret the pick? They drafted 100% for need and pick position. Example #2 - Bijan. Atlanta drafted BPA. He is amazing, had a great 2 years so far. They were 7-10 for 2 straight years prior. And the 2 years after they have been 7-10 & 8-9. Do you think they made the right decision? By the way they also spent the #4 overall pick on Pitts, a Generational TE, and he/they suck. I'd imagine Falcon fans would not agree with your BPA theory since they missed out on Chase, Waddle, Parsons, Horn, PSII, DeVonta Smith - all positions of need in 2021. BPA is A criteria, but not THE criteria.

Taking into account sample size I would only be about 60% confident in this assumption lol

Here is a fun addition to the conversation - this is first round hit rates since 2000 by position

I don't think cutting our 3rd string TE confirms a draft pick

For fun comparisons look up some past years to see how accurate/inaccurate this is - just type the players name and combine into the search bar and click the NFL website: Bryce Young - 6.82 vs Stroud - 6.70 Jayden Daniels - 6.73, Caleb Williams - 6.72, Bo Nix - 6.39 Puka Nacua - 5.8 Clearly not incredibly reliable - Have fun!

I definitely do but I am open to watching them at the combine this week.

He honestly never played at a very high level. Only thing we will miss is his leadership.