Wes21

I definitely understand the "argument from authority" angle people try to use. But in this case I think he tried it, without reading what the article was about. Its kind of like having football coaches talking about challenges they are having with COVID and their team, and someone says "only someone who specializes in viruses can tell you that!" Wait...what? So those doctors that you named are trained in alcohol abuse?

I'm guessing you didn't read the article?

It has definitely been cooler in the areas I've been in.

Has anyone tried to explain why its been so much cooler than "normal?"

Same here where I live. At first there was panic and "OMG we are the next New York!" That's when they put in plans to build out the coliseum as a makeshift hospital. But the numbers never came, so the city shifted the burden onto the local hospitals. "We aren't building out the coliseum, but you will need to add X number of beds to your capacity!" That's when I got the call to come up with a plan. Once we got the plan in motion, we were told to hold for a second, the numbers don't support it. Next thing I know, I'm getting a call saying they aren't doing it at all...because...data.

Your attempt to re-frame his analogy was terrible, and I know you can do better. Hey we agree on something! I think saying "I am totally in charge and can do whatever I want" followed by "that's not on me and I take no responsibility for any of this" will be in chapter 1. People aren't looking at it from the same 10,000 ft view as you. Many of them are in areas where there aren't alot of cases and aren't alot of deaths. How many areas of the country are supposed to stay locked up because New Yorkers keep dying? That's part of the question some people are asking themselves.

As long as each source is consistent in how they are diagnosing the deaths, I'm okay with most of the ways its done. There were a few instances where I've heard of somewhat arbitrarily deciding that something was a COVID death, but I don't think that is widespread.

So have you changed your position from "nobody is recommending that" to "those states are doing it wrong?"

Exactly. I guess he's been drinking too much.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/a-plan-for-a-phased-reopening-guided-by-public-health-principles.html https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/ https://www.heritage.org/press/national-coronavirus-recovery-commission-announces-five-phase-plan-reopening-america

IMO the bar is one of the last places that should open up. Its an absolute cesspool and being close to other people is half the purpose of being at a bar.

So that's why young athletes have no clue they have it...test positive...never really experience anything...and then its gone? This thing sucks. But people are also trying to make this into something its not. The data is overwhelming at this point.

I think about this one... ...what happens to the teachers and administrative staff at schools that are vulnerable and can't go to work? What if there are so many of them that the school can't function, or they have to close down so many classrooms that not all of the students can attend school? Now those students get sent home? And what happens to those parents that work, do they now have to stay home with their kids? What if they try to send them out to daycare, but enrollment is closed? That's just a small logic train, but you can see that there is a huge domino effect because so much of our workforce is vulnerable. "Just" having them stay home and keep things going close to normal doesn't even work on paper, much less in reality. I just focused on schools. In reality, half the construction jobsites in America would stop work immediately because so many of the superintendents and foreman running the jobs are older.

That's a funny story.

I can't speak for "transit" in this area but the driving metric is close to what I've experienced where I live. Things aren't quite back to normal but its definitely trending that way.

The longer we stay in lockdown, the more we get into a natural recession and the more I agree with you. But in the short term, yes, many jobs will come back the minute the lockdowns end. Think about it like this. If every government said every restaurant and bar could open tomorrow, do you think there would be a normal slow trickle of bars and restaurants opening up, consumers very slowly going back to restaurants and bars over the course of the next couple years, and then a very slow hiring of restaurant and bar personnel over the next few years? Because that's not what I see. What I see is a RUSH to bars and restaurants and then tons of social media posts about how too many people were at X, Y or Z place (complete with photos). And that's the difference that I'm talking about when I'm discussing a man made recession in the short term vs a natural recession over a longer term. If you open gyms tomorrow, they aren't going to spend the next 5 years trying to build back up clientele. And that's the difference between people cancelling their memberships by the millions naturally vs forcing them to not go to the gym.

In the short term, yes you can. And the reason why you can snap your fingers and make it happen, is because we snapped our fingers and made it this way. Its much, much tougher to recover when we get into a natural recession. The longer we stay in this man made recession, the closer we get to rolling into a natural recession. Now THAT is what you can't snap your fingers and reverse.

I'm not sure if it will bounce right back or not. But given the types of businesses that were targeted in the lockdown and the nature of them, its certainly a possibility that it could bounce right back if this thing doesn't keep dragging on. In the short term, that is the real difference between a man made recession vs a natural one. In a natural recession, you can't literally snap your fingers and watch millions of people flock to spend gobs and gobs of money the next day.

I am drinking and I am at the tail end of something I was watching on Netflix called "Have a Good Trip: Adventures in Psychedelics." So the reality of what you just said is hitting me a little different than it normally would.

This has been the rumor for a little while now, and there is some circumstantial evidence to support it (nothing definitive).

I was just north of you in the 80s and 90s. In my little town, we used to look at Greensboro like kids in the various areas of New York looked at Manhattan. LOL. When the new Jordan's (for instance) would come out, we would have a very limited supply or they would arrive late. So if we wanted Jordan's as soon as they came out, it required driving down to Greensboro. One summer I commuted down and worked at Don Pablo's. I think it was on High Point Road. The location used to be called Caso Gallardo or something like that. As a kid my parents would take me there and I would get the mud pie.

I honestly didn't even think that what you described was "a thing." When I picture those types of areas, obviously I picture being relatively alone. But I guess I should have figured it. I'm in the VA Beach area, and as soon as they open up anything its all shoulder to shoulder, including the fishing piers. I loved my Asheville experience! However, I can appreciate if you were there when it was a different place and that's what you signed up for.

Yes, the purpose of the money is to keep the economy going. I agree with the cap, because after you get above a certain earnings level you are more likely to do something that doesn't involve putting it right back into the economy.